Measuring the Impact of Direct and Indirect R&D on the Productivity Growth of Industries: Using the Yale Technology Concordance

This paper investigates the impact of direct and indirect R&D on the productivity growth of 30 French industries during the period 1978–92. The main aim of this paper is to assess the appropriateness of the Yale Technology Concordance (YTC) as a proxy for indirect R&D flows. We compare the effect on productivity growth of the Yale proxy with the traditional proxy based on goods input–output flows, and assess their suitability for different groups of industries. Results indicate that the indirect YTC proxy performs slightly better than the traditional proxy, as a result of superior performance in the high-tech and service sectors in particular.     

Application of the Yale Technology Concordance to the Construction of International Spillover Variables for India

Although there is increased interest in the role of international technology spillovers, empirical studies have been hampered by a host of measurement problems. This paper reviews recent attempts to address two of these problems. First, there are differing degrees of transferability of technology from one region to another. Second, both embodied and disembodied technology are transferred, and these different modes of transfer have distinct implications for both behavior and policy. To deal with the first measurement problem, the Yale Technology Concordance (YTC)—a matrix that maps patents into industries of manufacture and sectors of use—was used to construct indices of relevance of foreign technology to India. To deal with the second measurement problem, the YTC was again used to construct pools of embodied and disembodied international technology. After describing the variable construction, the paper highlights the performance of these variables in equations that predict Indian firms' R&D, technology purchases and output.     

Assigning Patents to Industries: Tests of the Yale Technology Concordance

We describe a method to predict patent counts disaggregated by industry, using available data on patenting by technology field. This method—the Yale Technology Concordance (YTC)—exploits a data set of patents that have been individually assigned by the Canadian Patent Office to both an industry and a technology field. The procedure for predicting patents by industry is developed as a statistical model so that the standard errors of the predictions can be estimated. The YTC is tested on several subsets of Canadian patents by comparing out-of-sample predictions with industry assignments made by the Canadian Patent Office. We find that the predictions of patents by industry are quite accurate for the subset of patents form US inventors. The prediction errors are much greater for the subset of patents granted or published after 1989. This suggests that the relationship between the technology fields and industries has shifted in a way that the procedure does not capture. Nonetheless, predictions from the YTC do appear to give a reasonably accurate picture of the pattern of patenting by industry.     

Impact of R&D and Technology Diffusion on Productivity Growth: Empirical Evidence for 10 OECD Countries

This paper examines the empirical evidence on the impact of performed R&D and of R&D embodied in intermediate and capital goods on productivity performance in 10 major OECD countries over the last two decades. To quantify intersectoral and international technology flows, industry-level embodied R&D variables were constructed from an input–output (IO) R&D embodiment model. The productivity variables used are discrete Divisia growth indexes of total factor productivity (TFP), which were estimated from an IO growth accounting model. The results from pooled regressions indicate that the rates of return of the R&D variables were positively significant and increasing in the 1980s. In particular, embodied R&D is an important source for TFP growth in services, indicating very high social returns of the flows of capital-embodied technology into this sector. Moreover, the information and communi-cation technology (ICT) cluster of industries played a major role in the generation and cquisition of new technologies at the international level.     

Industrial Productivity Growth Linkages Between OECD Countries, 1970–90

Technology ‘spillovers’ are increasingly being recognized as sources of productivity growth. International ‘convergence’ in productivity levels has also been noted in recent studies. This paper reports a study of international total factor productivity (TFP) growth for 11 industrial sectors in seven OECD countries. Spillover variables are defined based on interindusty and international invention input–output (I(IO)) weights. These variables are tested against import-weighted variables. The study concludes that I(IO)-weighted R&D ‘spill-ins’ are important determinants of TFP growth and that convergence is dependent on domestic RBD.     

Issues in Assessing the Effect of Interindustry R&D Spillovers

This paper aims to clarify three issues concerning the weighting methodol ogy generally used to evaluate interindustry R&D spillovers. These issues concern the likely nature of the spillovers estimated through different types of supporting matrices; the similarity between input–output (IO), technology flows and technological proximity matrices; and the relevance of the assumption that a single matrix can be used for different countries. Data analyses of weighting components show that technology flows matrices are in an intermediate position between IO matrices and technological proximity matrices, but closer to the former. The various IO matrices, as well as the three technological proximity matrices, are very similar to each other. The panel data estimates of the effect of different types of interindustry R&D spillovers on industrial productivity growth in the G7 countries reject the hypotheses that a technology flows matrix can be approximated by an IO matrix and that a single IO matrix can be usedfor different countries. By transitivity, the procedure that comprises using a single technology flow for several countries is not reliable. The international comparison shows that each country benefits from different types of R&D externality. In Japan and, to a lesser extent, in the US, the rate of return to direct R&D is very high and is likely to compensate for relatively weak interindustry R&D spillover effects. In the five other industrialized countries, the reverse observation is true: strong social rates of return to R&D counterbal ance the poor performances of direct R&D.     

Technology Flows Matrix Estimation Revisited

This paper revisits the methodological problems of estimating matrices showing how technological advances--measured by industry research and development outlays--flow from industries of origin to using industries. An early effort relied upon the analysis of 15 112 US patents. Several alternative methods are explored to address methodological questions concerning the choice of carrier matrices, the handling of diagonal elements, and the treatment of capital goods flows. Technology flow matrices estimated using diverse combinations of assumptions are tested for goodness-of-fit relative to the original patent-based matrix and for their ability to "predict' productivity growth in Solowian regression equations. Although some anomalies emerge, the best results are obtained using combined first-order transactions and capital flows matrices with diagonal elements adjusted to reflect the ratio of internal process to all R&D spending. However, flow data compiled using the Leontief inverse matrix add explanatory power in productivity growth regressions.     

Firm efficiency and stock returns

In this paper, we investigate the role of firm efficiency in asset pricing using a sample of US publicly listed companies for the period 1988–2007. We employ non-parametric data envelopment analysis (DEA) on various input/output combinations, focusing on sales and market value as output measures in the construction of the frontier technologies. Using these performance measures, we examine whether efficient firms perform differently from inefficient firms following standard financial analysis procedures. First, we employ performance attribution regressions, by forming portfolios based on efficiency scores and tracking the performance of the various portfolios over time. Second, we perform cross-sectional/panel regressions to determine whether firm efficiency indeed has explanatory power for the cross-section of stock returns. Our results suggest that firm efficiency plays an important role in asset pricing and that efficient firms significantly outperform inefficient firms even after controlling for known risk factors.     

Interindustry Technology Flows and Productivity in Finnish Manufacturing

The paper examines the importance of interindustry technology flows in finnish manufacturing in the 1980s and early 1990s. An attempt is made to distinguish between embodied technology flows and spillovers, so clarifying the spillover concept.Embodied technology covers intermediate goods and capital equipment. The embodied technology data that have been used are partly based on input—output analysis, while the spillover estimates presented are based on measures of technological distance based on the industry-specific distributions of R&D expenditures. Econometric analysis of the effects of the various technology inputs on total factor productivity implies that technology embodied in foreign machinery, domestic spillovers and, to some extent, the firms' own R&D have been the most important technology sources on average.     

Knowledge Flows,Patent Citations and the Impact of Science on Technology

Technological innovation depends on knowledge developed by scientific research. The number of citations made in patents to the scientific literature has been suggested as an indicator of this process of transfer of knowledge from science to technology. We provide an intersectoral insight into this indicator, by breaking down patent citations into a sector-to-sector matrix of knowledge flows. We then propose a method to analyze this matrix and construct various indicators of science intensity of sectors, and the pervasiveness of knowledge flows. Our results indicate that the traditional measure of the number of citations to science literature per patent captures important aspects of intersectoral knowledge flows, but that other aspects are not captured. In particular, we show that high science intensity implies that sectors are net suppliers of knowledge in the economic sector, but that science intensity does not say much about pervasiveness of either knowledge use or knowledge supply by sectors. We argue that these results are related to the specific and specialized nature of knowledge.     

Capital and trade flows in Europe and the impact of enlargement

The Eastern enlargement of the European Union (EU) is likely to give a further boost to trade and capital flows, yet empirical evidence on its possible effects is scarce. This paper uses four different datasets to estimate the determinants of international asset holdings and trade flows. We find in most regressions that EU membership has a significant effect. Based on additional forecasts of the expected flows to 10 transition economies, we conclude that for the EU candidates actual levels are still far below expected values in most cases. Consequently, we anticipate raising capital and trade flows with the approach of EU accession, in particular for the seven EU candidates besides the Czech Republic, Hungary, and Poland.     

库存控制系统中的流分析

文章主要从库存控制系统的分析、设计与实现多个过程分析其中相关流的关系及技术,主要包括物料流、价值流、业务流、服务流、信息流、资金流等。对基于UML的对象流与用于控制的流标签、实现中的基于数据库的数据流等也作了论述。通过分析各个流的关系,设计并实现了高效的具有清晰流的基于物流的库存控制系统。     

The measurement of the economic performance of the US Nonfinancial Corporate Business Sector 1946–1990: an application of the shareholder value creation concept

This paper is based upon a juxtaposition of the cash flow-market value performance (alias SVC performance) and historic cost accounting (HC) performance of the US Nonfinancial Corporate Business sector 1946–90. It has two principal objectives: 1. To determine whether, judged on return and variability dimensions, the HC accounting model is an operationally acceptable surrogate for a multiperiod market-based accounting model. 2. To analyse the consequences of HC income-based distributions, i.e., corporate tax, interest and dividend payments based on conventionally-measured corporate income. Three principal conclusions are drawn: i. Notwithstanding their common cash flow component, HC performance indices are not reliable surrogates for SVC performance criteria. The former apparently do not accurately capture changes in corporate valuation and generally understate the variability of market-based returns. ii. The multiperiod HC income of a going concern characteristically overstates its coterminous multiperiod cash flows to a considerable degree. Contrary to common supposition, the former does not therefore constitute a ‘normalized’ or ‘smoothed’ version of a firm's ‘primitive’ cash flows in the sense that the cumulative (multiperiod) values of the two measures tend to converge. iii. As a consequence of ii, HC income and its near relation, taxable earnings, are dubious bases for measuring interest-paying, tax-paying and dividend-paying capacities. Corporate income-distribution decisions based on HC accruals-based profit measures frequently trigger external financing which may cause shareholder wealth losses and wealth transfers from shareholders to lenders. However, ‘fiscal drag’ appears to be the most serious consequence of HC accruals-based income distribution decisions.     

A cross-section average-based principal components approach for fixed-T panels

Because of the increased availability of large panel data sets, common factor models have become very popular. The workhorse of the literature is the principal components (PC) method, which is based on an eigen-analysis of the sample covariance matrix of the data. Some of its uses are to estimate the factors and their loadings, to determine the number of factors, and to conduct inference when estimated factors are used in panel regression models. The bulk of the underlying theory that justifies these uses is based on the assumption that both the number of time periods, T, and the number of cross-section units, N, tend to infinity. This is a drawback, because in practice T and N are always finite, which means that the asymptotic approximation can be poor, and there are plenty of simulation results that confirm this. In the current paper, we focus on the typical micro panel where only N is large and T is finite and potentially very small—a scenario that has not received much attention in the PC literature. A version of PC is proposed, henceforth referred to as cross-section average-based PC (CPC), whereby the eigen-analysis is performed on the covariance matrix of the cross-section averaged data as opposed to on the covariance matrix of the raw data as in original PC. The averaging attenuates the idiosyncratic noise, and this is the reason why in CPC T can be fixed. Mirroring the development in the PC literature, the new method is used to estimate the factors and their average loadings, to determine the number of factors, and to estimate factor-augmented regressions, leading to a complete CPC-based toolbox. The relevant theory is established, and is evaluated using Monte Carlo simulations.     

Do European capital flows comove?

We study the cross-section correlations of net, total, and disaggregated capital flows for the major source and recipient European Union countries. We seek evidence of changes in these correlations since the introduction of the euro to understand whether the European Union can be considered a unique entity with regard to its international capital flows. We make use of Ng’s (2006) “uniform spacing” methodology to rank cross-section correlations and to shed light on potential common factors driving international capital flows. We find that a common factor structure is suitable for equity flows disaggregated by sign but not for net and total flows. We only find mixed evidence that correlations between types of flows have changed since the introduction of the euro.     

Does China's carbon emissions trading policy improve the technology innovation of relevant enterprises?

China's carbon emissions trading (CET) policy aims to force relevant enterprises to implement low‐carbon technology innovation and address environmental challenges through marketization means. However, how China's CET policy may affect enterprise technology innovation and whether this effect may differ in industries remain to be further investigated. Therefore, based on the panel data of listed enterprises covered by the CET policy in China during 2009–2017, this paper employs the difference‐in‐difference (DID) and DID‐based propensity score matching models to evaluate the effect of CET on technology innovation. The empirical results indicate that the effect of China's CET on the technology innovation of related enterprises is generally not significant during the sample period, but this effect presents evident industrial heterogeneity. Specifically, among the eight CET‐covered industries, the CET policy helps to improve technology innovation for power and aviation enterprises but not in the other six industries (i.e., steel, chemical, building material, petrochemical, nonferrous metals, and paper), which implies that China's CET policy still has great potential for promoting the technology innovation of related enterprises. In addition, the central findings remain robust when the system generalized method of moment and DID‐based coarsened exact matching models are applied to consider the influence of omitted variables, unobservable confounders, and different matching methods.     

A Test for a Functioning Market Economy: Seton'S Eigenprices of Turkey

We use Seton's eigenprices to see if some evidence can be found in support of the European Commission's official statement that the Turkish economy can be considered as a functioning market economy. Given an input–output flows matrix, there is a unique set of prices for outputs and production factors compatible with final demand, generating demand for factors. The findings based on Turkey's most recent I–O table and comparable I–O matrices for Romania and Poland (two EU members) in 2005 show that price distortions were on average five times larger in Turkey. Hence, based on price distortions alone, there was no solid evidence in support of the statement that Turkey had a functioning market economy.     

Density Forecasts With Midas Models

We propose a parametric block wild bootstrap approach to compute density forecasts for various types of mixed‐data sampling (MIDAS) regressions. First, Monte Carlo simulations show that predictive densities for the various MIDAS models derived from the block wild bootstrap approach are more accurate in terms of coverage rates than predictive densities derived from either a residual‐based bootstrap approach or by drawing errors from a normal distribution. This result holds whether the data‐generating errors are normally independently distributed, serially correlated, heteroskedastic or a mixture of normal distributions. Second, we evaluate density forecasts for quarterly US real output growth in an empirical exercise, exploiting information from typical monthly and weekly series. We show that the block wild bootstrapping approach, applied to the various MIDAS regressions, produces predictive densities for US real output growth that are well calibrated. Moreover, relative accuracy, measured in terms of the logarithmic score, improves for the various MIDAS specifications as more information becomes available. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

The inter-industry distribution of technological capabilities. A case study in the application of the Italian patenting in the U.S.A.

In this paper patent statistics are used as a technological indicator for the purpose of identifying the inter-industry distribution of technological capabilities. A matrix of Italian patents in the U.S.A. by industrial sectors and technological fields is discussed. This matrix, which is complementary to those devoted to inter-industry technology flows, is of interest to technology policy, since it indicates the sources of a given technological capability. The same matrix shows that the companies, and consequently the industrial sectors involved, are multi-technological in that they produce inventions in a wide range of technological fields. The present paper is an initial attempt to quantify this known fact.