The real effects of financial (dis)integration: A multi-country equilibrium analysis of Europe

Using data from 15 European Union economies, we quantify the real effects of supply-side frictions due to the financial disintegration of European countries since the 2008 financial crisis. We develop a multi-country general equilibrium model with heterogeneous countries and destination-specific financial frictions. Financial institutions allocate capital endogenously across countries, determining the cost of capital to firms and the wealth of nations. The cost of financial disintegration is reduced access to capital for firms which results in lower output. Financial disintegration leads to a 0.54% fall in output in Europe since the crisis. We also estimate benefits of further financial integration.     

Macroeconomic impact of the Sino–U.S. trade frictions: Based on a two-country,two-sector DSGE model

To examine the impact of the recent Sino–U.S. trade frictions on the macroeconomics of China and the United States, we constructed a two-country, two-sector dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model. This model was used to explore the tariff transmission mechanism in such trade frictions and provide a basic analytical framework for future research on bilateral trade frictions. Based on our benchmark analysis, the tariff shocks affect non-tradable sectors through the tradable sectors, which, in turn, have impacted consumption, investments, prices, and production. Specifically, the tariffs on intermediate and final goods affect the economy from the supply and demand sides, respectively, and as the trade dependence decreases, the economic volatility caused by the tariff shocks also decreases. Moreover, our simulation showed that the impact of the trade frictions on the macroeconomics of the two countries has been asymmetrical, which is consistent with the objective economic realities.     

Financial Development,Credit, and Business Cycles

How does financial development affect the magnitude of the business cycles fluctuations? We examine this question in a general equilibrium model with heterogeneous agents and endogenous credit constraints based on Kiyotaki (1998). We show that there is a hump‐shaped relationship between the degree of financial frictions and the amplification of unexpected productivity shocks. This nonmonotonic relation is due to the fall in financial frictions having two opposite effects on the response of output. One effect is the reallocation of productive inputs between agent types, which, while active, increases with the fall in financial frictions. The other effect is the change in the demand of inputs, which decreases with the fall in financial frictions. At low levels of financial development, the reallocation effect dominates and a fall in financial frictions increases the amplification of productivity shocks. In contrast, at higher levels of financial development, a fall in financial frictions decreases the shock amplification because the reallocation effect disappears while the effect on the demand of inputs is still present.     

汇率波动、生产网络与股市风险--基于中美贸易摩擦背景的分析北大核心

本文从生产网络视角出发,研究中美贸易摩擦期间汇率变动对中美两国股票市场的直接影响以及由行业间生产联系带来的网络影响。从静态一般均衡模型可推出具有空间自回归(SAR)模型形式的实证模型,其中以行业间投入产出关系作为空间权重矩阵。实证结果发现,中美双边汇率变动对两国股市的影响在贸易摩擦期间均比之前更为显著,人民币贬值导致中国股市收益率下降,其中约50%是由行业间生产联系带来的网络效应,而美元升值导致了美国股市收益率下降,其中约37%是网络效应。关税制裁波及的行业与未波及行业的股票收益率均受汇率变动影响,但后者受到的网络影响更大,且各行业受到的网络影响主要由其下游行业传递。     

Bubbles,growth and imperfection of credit market in a two-country model

This study extends Hirano and Yanagawa (Rev Econ Stud 84(1):406–443, 2017) to an asymmetric two-country model and examines bubbles effects on each country’s long-run economic growth rate. This study also provides numerical examples with respect to the relationship between each country’s growth rate and their financial frictions in the balanced growth equilibria with bubbles and without bubbles. It shows that foreign bubbles have positive and negative effects on both countries’ growth rates, and which effect dominates depends on the level of financial development in both countries. In this study, the positive effect of bubbles tends to dominate when the total level of financial frictions in both countries is relatively low. When the total effect of bubbles on the growth rate is positive, the burst of foreign bubbles leads to a decrease in the growth rate in both countries. This implies that there is a positive correlation between foreign bubbles and the domestic as well as the foreign country’s growth rate.     

Capital and credit market integration and real economic contagion during the global financial crisis

This study investigates the role of financial integration in the spread of global financial crisis. In particular, this study shows how the effect of the crisis on real business cycle co-movement varied for capital and credit market integration, using a sample of 58 countries in 2001–2013. During the global financial crisis, the United States – the epicenter of the crisis – experienced a severe downturn in the real economy, and other countries followed suit. We find that during the global financial crisis, the business cycle co-movements between the United States and the rest of the world were stronger when the level of capital market integration between them was higher. However, the co-movements were weaker when the level of credit market integration was higher. These findings are robust even when including investment channels, local fundamental factors, endogenous policy responses across countries, and alternative measures for financial integration and business cycle co-movements.     

International reserves for emerging economies: A liquidity approach

The massive stocks of foreign exchange reserves, mostly held in the form of U.S. T-bonds by emerging economies, are still an important puzzle. Why do emerging economies continue to willingly loan to the United States despite the low rates of return? We suggest that a dynamic general equilibrium model incorporating international capital markets, characterized by decentralized trade and U.S. T-bonds as facilitators of trade, can provide one possible resolution to this question. Declining financial frictions in these over-the-counter (OTC) markets would generate rising liquidity premium on U.S. T-bonds, thereby causing low U.S. real interest rates. Meanwhile, the superior liquidity properties of the U.S. T-bonds would induce recipients of foreign investments, namely emerging economies, to hold more liquidity, that is U.S. T-bonds, in equilibrium. The prediction of our model is confirmed by an empirical simultaneous equations approach considering an endogenous relationship between OTC capital inflows and reserve holdings.     

Imperfect financial contracting and macroeconomic stability

This paper studies the implications of imperfect financial contracting for macroeconomic stability in the context of a stochastic dynamic general equilibrium model. We find that the equilibrium growth path might be indeterminate in an economy with financing frictions even if the aggregate production function exhibits constant returns to scale. Self-fulfilling expectations about the future price of capital lead to macroeconomic fluctuations in this economy.     

The impact of monetary policy shocks on stock prices: Evidence from Canada and the United States

Using structural VAR models with short-run restrictions appropriate for Canada and the United States, we empirically examine whether trade and financial market openness matter for the impact on and transmission to stock prices of monetary policy shocks. We find that, in Canada, the immediate response of stock prices to a domestic contractionary monetary policy shock is small and the dynamic response is brief, whereas in the United States, the immediate response of stock prices to a similar shock is relatively large and the dynamic response is relatively prolonged. We find that these differences are largely driven by differences in financial market openness and hence different dynamic responses of monetary policy shocks between the two countries that we model in this paper.     

Nonlinear Cointegration Relationships Between Non-Life Insurance Premiums and Financial Markets

The aim of this article is to study the adjustment dynamics of the non-life insurance premium (NLIP) and test its dependence to the financial markets in five countries (Canada, France, Japan, the United Kingdom, and the United States). First, we justify the linkage between the insurance and the financial markets by the underwriting cycle theory and financial models of insurance pricing. Second, we examine the relationship between the NLIP, the interest rate, and the stock price using the recent developments of nonlinear econometrics. We use threshold cointegration models: the switching transition error correction models (STECM). We show that STECM perform better than a linear error correction model (LECM) to reproduce the NLIP dynamics. Our empirical results show that the adjustment of the NLIP in France, Japan, and the United States is rather discontinuous, asymmetrical, and nonlinear. Moreover, we suggest a strong evidence of significant linkages between insurance and financial markets, show two regimes for the NLIP, and find that the NLIP adjustment toward equilibrium is time varying with a convergence speed that varies according to the insurance disequilibrium size.     

The Housing and Credit Bubbles in the United States and Europe: A Comparison

A house price boom occurred simultaneously in the United States and in a number of European countries from 2003 to 2007, accompanied in each case by an expansion in housing finance. This article considers the role of financial innovation along with incomplete markets in these cycles.     

High idiosyncratic volatility and low returns: International and further U.S. evidence

Stocks with recent past high idiosyncratic volatility have low future average returns around the world. Across 23 developed markets, the difference in average returns between the extreme quintile portfolios sorted on idiosyncratic volatility is -1.31%$-1.31\%$ per month, after controlling for world market, size, and value factors. The effect is individually significant in each G7 country. In the United States, we rule out explanations based on trading frictions, information dissemination, and higher moments. There is strong covariation in the low returns to high-idiosyncratic-volatility stocks across countries, suggesting that broad, not easily diversifiable factors lie behind this phenomenon.     

全球金融周期、美国货币政策与“三元悖论”

全球金融周期存在的背景下“三元悖论”是否依然成立充满争议。本文通过构建包含银行与金融摩擦的两国DSGE模型,为考察全球金融周期的形成提供了理论依据。美国货币政策通过资本流动传导到外围国金融市场,使外围国信贷利率、银行风险承担以及杠杆率与美国银行趋同,形成全球金融周期。金融渠道的传导速度快于实体经济渠道导致外围国国内经济周期与金融周期相背离,外围国想要稳定经济就不得不与美国保持同向的政策利率变化,货币政策独立性将不再存在。随着全球经济一体化进程加速,估值效应的作用越来越明显,浮动汇率制度并不能隔离全球金融周期的影响也无法保证货币政策的独立性。在资本账户开放的情况下,外围国金融市场越不发达,受全球金融周期的影响越大,货币政策越不独立。     

Financial integration and business cycles in a small open economy

The purpose of this study is to examine a dynamic, stochastic, general equilibrium framework with financial and informational frictions and foreign borrowing in the case of money growth and technology shocks for a small open economy and to analyze the implications of varying degrees of financial integration for aggregate fluctuations and propagation mechanisms in the economy. The existence of informational asymmetries among the agents in the model necessitates financial intermediation in the economy. Moreover, there is uncertainty involved in the production process which leads to collateralized borrowing by firms and, therefore, has to be taken into account in the design of the loan contracts between firms and financial intermediaries. It is shown that increasing financial integration amplifies the effect of a positive, temporary monetary shock on output, consumption, investment, labor demand and loans; whereas it has barely any implication for the impact of a positive, temporary technology shock on the economy.     

Macroprudential policy transmission and interaction with fiscal and monetary policy in an emerging economy: a DSGE model for Brazil

We investigate the transmission of macroprudential (MaP) instruments in a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model where foreign capital flows interact with financial frictions and banks are exposed to different sources of credit default risk. The model is estimated for Brazil with Bayesian techniques. We compute optimal combinations of simple MaP, fiscal and monetary policy rules that can react to the business and/or the financial cycle. We find that the gains from implementing a cyclical fiscal policy are only significant if MaP policy countercyclically reacts to the financial cycle. Optimal fiscal policy is countercyclical in the business cycle.     

影子银行体系监管改革的国际经验及其对中国的启示

全球金融危机过后,影子银行体系的监管改革问题前所未有地成为各国金融当局普遍关注的热点,以美国为代表的发达经济体掀起了一场旨在规范影子银行体系发展的金融监管体制改革。本文的研究表明,过度金融创新以及金融监管的缺失是刺激美国影子银行体系迅速发展的直接原因。然而,危机过后,美国并未简单地采取抑制金融创新的办法加强对影子银行体系的监管,而是通过金融监管机构改革以及提高微观金融数据的采集与分析的办法,规范和引导影子银行体系的健康发展。这种市场化的监管改革思路值得我们借鉴。从影子银行体系的运行机制以及发展来看,中国的影子银行体系与美国存在较大差异,但全面强化宏观审慎金融监管是我国金融监管体制改革的大势所趋。在此情况下,美国金融监管改革的经验值得我们认真总结和研究。最后,本文认为,中国应当继续深化金融体制改革;积极探索现行金融监管框架的改革;加强微观金融数据的收集与整合,完善宏观金融风险预警机制。     

Financial Crises and Recapitalizations

We develop a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model with financial frictions on both financial intermediaries and goods‐producing firms. Since financial intermediaries are highly leveraged, we show that the welfare gains from their recapitalization in response to large but rare net worth losses are as large as those from eliminating typical business cycle fluctuations. We also find that these gains are increasing in the size of the net worth loss, are larger when recapitalization funds are raised from the household rather than the real sector, and can be larger when lower idiosyncratic risk leads to higher leverage.     

The U.S. small business bankruptcy amendments: A global model for reform?

On February 19, 2020, the Small Business Reorganization Act of 2019 went into effect in the United States. This statute was intended to make the rescue regime of Chapter 11 of the United States Bankruptcy Code more effective for smaller businesses that would not otherwise have the financial wherewithal to complete a traditional Chapter 11 reorganization. This article describes the central innovations of the new statute, and considers whether they might be adaptable by other countries.     

International Evidence on Risk Taking by Banks Around the Global Financial Crisis

This study models the risks of commercial banks from the United States and developed, emerging, and frontier countries while controlling for bank- and country-specific variables within a panel framework. Bank risk is measured by both the traditional Z-score and a composite bank risk index proposed by the authors. The findings suggest that even though the riskiness of all banks from different country groups increased following the financial crisis, the magnitude of the change is not the same across groups. During the post-crisis period, banks in developed, emerging, and frontier countries experienced a smaller increase in their risk compared to their counterparts in the United States. This article provides support for the claim that banks in emerging and frontier countries have experienced the effects of the financial crisis to a lesser extent compared to those in the United States.     

Countercyclical Bank Capital Requirement and Optimized Monetary Policy Rules

Using BoC-GEM-Fin, a large-scale dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) model with real, nominal, and financial frictions featuring a banking sector, we explore the macroeconomic implications of various types of countercyclical bank capital regulations. Results suggest that countercyclical capital requirements have a significant stabilizing effect on key macroeconomic variables, but mostly after financial shocks. Moreover, the bank capital regulatory policy and monetary policy interact, and this interaction is contingent on the type of shocks that drive the economic cycle. Finally, we analyze loss functions based on macroeconomic and financial variables to arrive at an optimal countercyclical regulatory policy in a class of simple implementable Taylor-type rules. Compared to bank capital regulatory policy, monetary policy is able to stabilize the economy more efficiently after real shocks. On the other hand, financial shocks require the regulator to be more aggressive in loosening/tightening capital requirements for banks, even as monetary policy works to counter the deviations of inflation from the target.