US shadow economies: a state-level study

Recent studies of shadow economies focus primarily on cross-country comparisons. Few have examined regional or state-level variations in underground economic activity. This paper presents estimates of the shadow economy for 50 US states over the period 1997–2008. Results suggest that tax and social welfare burdens, labor market regulations, and intensity of regulation enforcement are important determinants of the underground economy. Among the states, Delaware, on average, maintains the smallest shadow economy at 7.28 % of GDP; Oregon, on average, has the second smallest shadow economy at 7.41 % of GDP; followed by Colorado, averaging 7.52 % of GDP, rounding out the three smallest shadow economies in the US West Virginia and Mississippi, on average, have the largest shadow economies in the US as a percent of GDP (9.32 and 9.54 %, respectively).     

Cigarette demand and effectiveness of U.S. smoking control policies: state-level evidence for more than half a century

Using state-level U.S. data over 1956–2008 this paper examines the demand for cigarettes. The long data span enables us to compare and evaluate the effectiveness of various policies and to examine cigarette demand across individual states. Our results show cigarette demand to be price inelastic, smoking-habit effects to be strong, income effects to be small, and border price effects can be significant. These findings are quite robust across alternate model specifications. None of the three smoking control policies considered (Fairness Doctrine, Broadcast Ban, and Master Settlement Agreement) were shown to be effective in curbing overall smoking, although most were effective in a few states. Policy implications are discussed.     

Quantitative easing and median income: a state-level analysis

Due to the Great Recession, the Federal Reserve engaged in unconventional monetary policy (QE) to fight the effects of the economic downturn. Literature asserts that QE did have impacts on economic growth and helped alleviate the effects of the recession. Recently, critics have asserted that the benefits of QE may not have been equally distributed across households. In this paper, we build a state-level dataset to investigate the dynamics of QE measures and median income across the U.S states. The findings indicate that, for the period 2008 to 2014, there is statistical evidence that increases in the Federal Reserve’s balance sheet correspond with higher nominal median income. However, once we adjust for inflation, the results become statistically insignificant and the impact of QE on median income becomes almost zero.     

Effective demand and the terms of trade in a dual economy: a Kaldorian perspective

Along the line suggested by Nicholas Kaldor, the paper incorporatesinto the analysis of a dual economy effective demand as a problemof generation of agricultural surplus and its realisation intopurchasing power for industrial goods. Through this approach,it is shown how one obtains empirical predictions about unevensectoral growth rates, as well as an effect of the movementin the terms of trade on long-term industrial growth which iscontrary to that suggested by Lewis. The paper also specifiesthe process of dynamic adjustment of industrial growth in aself-reinforcing circular flow under conditions of sufficientlyhigh agricultural growth, extending the effective demand argumentin a dual economy.     

The supply and demand for imports and exports in a simultaneous model

Previous studies on the behaviour of aggregate exports and imports have tended to ignore the simultaneous relationship between quantity and price. This paper investigates the price responsiveness of export and import demand and supply in eight African countries. The results indicate that export demand price elasticities are smaller when the sample is African. The import supply and demand elasticities were found to be generally large. The Marshall–Lerner condition of balance of payment stability is found to be easily satisfied. A positively sloped function of export supply is found to exist for a majority of countries in the sample. The average time lag of export supply is found to be about a year. The disequilibrium model is found to be more appropriate for import demand, import supply and export supply.     

The supply of and demand for accounting information

The article analyzes the use of accounting information in Russia. We assess reporting behaviour in the lending process for a sample of Russian companies in the years 1999–2004 and postulate that Russian companies manage their earnings in order to avoid showing losses when applying for bank financing. Once a credit has been granted, companies are predicted to manage earnings because of the bank's monitoring activities. By means of univariate and multivariate analysis we are able to attribute the discontinuity around a zero target in the earnings distribution with firms’ response to the banks’ assessment of accounting performance. This implies that financing considerations affect the reporting incentives of Russian companies.     

Fire department demand and supply in large cities

The purpose of this study is to estimate demand and production functions for fire fighters provided in major cities. Several factors, including the level of fire losses in the communityper capitaincome, relative wages of fire fighters, population density, city size, and poverty are used in the analysis.

This study differs from earlier ones in two ways. First, multiple measures of community fire losses, instead of the usual one, are used in the analysis. Second, in contrast with earlier studies of fire protection which have typically relied on ordinary least squares regression analysis (OLS) to study either demand or production, this study employs two stage least squares regression analysis (2SLS) to simultaneously estimate demand and production relations.

Evidence is found that demand for fire fighting is affected by both fire losses and relative size of per capitaincome to fire fighter wages. Losses, in turn, are affected by fire fighting hours, by poverty and by density. There is some evidence for economies of scale. The results were consistently found for the variety of loss measures used. The 2SLS results indicated that, as expected, there are simultaneous effects occurring in demand and supply.     

The demand and supply of credit for households

The demand and supply of credit in the rural credit markets is investigated in this article using household data from India. The aim is to study the effects of household, farm productive characteristics and the policy variables on the demand and supply of credit. A type 3 Tobit model is estimated which corrects for sample selection and endogeniety bias. In addition, a generalized Double Hurdle model is estimated where the information on the household's access to credit is included to estimate the demand and supply of credit. The results suggest that the size of the operational holdings, net-wealth, dependency ratio, educational level of the household and the wages and output prices are important determinants of the demand and supply of credit for farm households. The Double Hurdle model confirms that the ‘size of land owned’ plays a crucial role in whether the household has access to a loan or not.     

A demand and supply analysis of productivity growth

The paper rejects growth accounting as failing to reveal the economic forces that drive growth. Instead, it seeks to explain changing productivity growth in terms of economic phenomena such as the changing structure of output, the rate of adoption of new technology, and the strength of aggregrate demand. We introduce such a model and test it using pooled cross section and time series data for 16 OECD economies over a 30 year period. The parameter estimates allow us to decompose each economy's productivity growth into the part caused by its changing structure and the part explained by demand conditions. The estimates are used to account for the productivity slowdown that occurred in these economies after 1973, and to examine the recent productivity increase in the US. The model fully explains this growth surge in terms of the changed demand factors and structure of the US economy. We conclude by arguing that a prime benefit of strong aggregate demand is its stimulation of investment and technological change, leading to the adoption of new technology on a broad front.     

Asymmetry and leverage in GARCH models: a News Impact Curve perspective

Models for conditional heteroskedasticity belonging to the GARCH class are now common tools in many economics and finance applications. Among the many possible competing univariate GARCH models, one of the most interesting groups allows for the presence of the so-called asymmetry or leverage effect. In our view, asymmetry and leverage are two distinct phenomena, both inspired by the seminal work of Black in 1976. We propose definitions of leverage and asymmetry that build on the News Impact Curve, allowing to easily and coherently verify if they are both present. We show that several GARCH models are asymmetric but none is allowing for a proper leverage effect. Finally, we extend the leverage definition to a local leverage effect and show that the AGARCH model is coherent with the presence of local leverage. An empirical analysis completes the paper.     

Promotional programmes and consumer purchasing decisions: pecan demand models

A generalized Heckman model of purchase decisions is estimated incorporating perceived consumer quality attributes, ease of purchase, and familiarity with marketing outlets as factors influencing pecan purchases. Economic implications for evaluating consumer purchase decisions and the design of commodity promotion programmes for the pecan industry are addressed. Key marketing variables such as the variety of uses for nut products, the number of outlets used to purchase pecans, and consumer perceptions of positive quality features of pecans are significant in promoting purchases. Applications of a trade-off analysis examine key variables considered by the pecan industry in developing promotional programmes both to stabilize pecan purchases and to maintain the probability of pecan purchases.     

Disentangling supply and demand shifts: the impacts on world salmon price

To understand price changes, one must determine the relative impact of supply and demand shifts on price. Conditional on predetermined supply and demand elasticities, we retrieve yearly shifts in regional supply and demand. The relative impact on price from each supply and demand shift is determined through an equilibrium displacement model (EDM). This procedure is applied on a yearly basis for the world salmon market in the period 2002 to 2011. The results indicate a large variation in demand and supply growth both over time and between regions. While average annual price impacts from supply or demand shifts from most regions are not statistically significant, price impacts from supply or demand shifts for specific periods are detected in all but one region. This indicates that the use of smooth trend indicators is likely to be inappropriate for measuring supply and demand shifts and their impacts on price. The procedure presented in this article can be a useful instrument for determining the relative impacts of supply and demand shifts on price in any market with unstable price behaviour.     

Lending conditions in EU: The role of credit demand and supply

We analyse the bank lending activity after the financial crisis and focus on bank-specific supply factors. Using a rich microeconomic dataset from Bankscope and macroeconomic shocks data, we employ OLS and 2SLS fixed effects models with banking controls, macroeconomic shocks and institutional quality. The banks’ loan-rate spreads increased despite the recent policy of low interest rates and quantitative easing. We use the bank asset quality as instruments to capture exogenous changes in loan supply. The empirical evidence shows that loan-rate spread and through this the supply of loans is negatively affected by a low asset quality and capital ratios.     

A short-run econometric analysis of the demand and import supply of a horticultural good: tomatoes

This paper considers the problem of estimating the short-run effects of nominal tariff and domestic production levels on the levels of imports and final market prices of fresh tomatoes in the UK during the period 1959–1968. Prior to EEC entry, tariff production was used as the main policy instrument for horticultural support; horticultural goods being exempt from guarantee or intervention price schemes. In retrospect it would, therefore, seem useful to consider the theoretical requirements for its effective use in such a market situation. The paper consists of two parts. The first section discusses a simple comparative-static specification of a simultaneous equation market model determining the prices and import levels of a single horticultural good and goes on to derive measures of the effects of tariff rate and domestic production changes on market equilibrium. The second section presents several sets of alternative estimates of the specified market model and calculated effects for the specific case of fresh tomatoes during the period 1965–68     

Identification of monetary policy in SVAR models: a data-oriented perspective

In the literature using short-run timing restrictions to identify monetary policy shocks in vector-auto-regressions (VAR) there is a debate on whether (i) contemporaneous real activity and prices or (ii) only data typically observed with high frequency should be assumed to be in the information set of the central bank when the interest rate decision is taken. This paper applies graphical modeling theory, a data-based tool, in a small-scale VAR of the US economy to shed light on this issue. Results corroborate the second type of assumption.     

Innovation and growth: supply and demand factors in the recent US expansion

It is widely held that the social-economic context of the US,characterised by labour market flexibility and deregulationof product and capital markets, lies at the basis of the innovativecapacity displayed by the country's productive system in the1990s, thus accounting for the growth differential with Europe.Starting from a different interpretative model of innovationand growth, the paper focuses on both supply (institutionaland technological) and demand factors. It is argued that, whentheir interaction is taken into account, there is no strongevidence that more deregulated labour and product markets areamong the factors allowing for US growth. In accordance withthe view that there is no single road to innovation and growth,this leaves room for the exploration and implementation of policiesthat might reconcile innovation and growth with safeguards suchas those provided by Europe's social institutions.     

LIML estimation of import demand and export supply elasticities

I apply limited-information maximum likelihood (LIML) to estimate import demand and export supply elasticities for a range of eurozone countries. The results highlight inconsistencies in the parameters estimated by LIML relative to an estimator that is robust to heteroskedasticity. The nature of the structural equations reveals complications generated by the limiting behavior of the parameters that can be replicated in finite samples. The results of simulations underscore improvements in parameter estimates in a three-dimensional panel, suggesting that the problem of limiting behaviour can be overcome in larger dataset/panels.