Sunk costs and resource mobility: An empirical study

While the concept of sunk costs has become increasingly important in theoretical work, relatively few empirical studies have examined sunk costs. The present study focuses on the relationship between tangible sunk costs and entry. An estimate of industry specific capital, derived from engineering-statistical cost estimates, is employed as a proxy for tangible sunk costs. With this measure we can test directly the relationship between irreversible investments and entry in a sample consisting of 40 U.S. manufacturing industries. The primary finding is that tangible sunk costs have a deterrent effect on entry.     

Does the fourth entrant make any difference?: Entry and competition in the early U.S. broadband market

We study the importance of sunk costs in determining entry conditions and inferences about firm conduct in an adapted Bresnahan and Reiss (1991, 1994) framework. In our framework, entrants incur sunk costs to enter, while incumbents disregard these costs in deciding on continuation or exit. We apply this framework to study entry and competition in the local U.S. broadband markets from 1999 to 2003. Ignoring sunk costs generates unreasonable variation in firms' competitive conduct over time. This variation disappears when entry costs are allowed. Once the market has one to three incumbent firms, the fourth entrant has little effect on competitive conduct.     

Sunk Costs,Market Contestability,and the Size Distribution of Firms

In this paper we offer a new economic explanation for the observed inter-industry differences in the size distribution of firms. Our empirical estimates based on three temporal (1982, 1987, and 1992) cross-sections of the four-digit US manufacturing industries indicate that increased market contestability, as signified by low sunk costs, tends to reduce the dispersion of firm sizes. These findings provide support for one of the key predictions of the theory of contestable markets: that market forces under contestability would tend to render any inefficient organization of the industry unsustainable and, consequently, tighten the distribution of firms around the optimum.     

Entry into Swedish Retail and Wholesale Trade Markets

This paper examines, using a zero-inflated negative binomial regression model, what determined entry into the Swedish retail and wholesale trade markets between 1990 and 1996. According to the results, high returns on equity and low sunk costs seemed to attract more entry into retail trade industries, while recent entry and higher total industry sales were associated with more entry into both retail and wholesale trade local markets.     

Unions and the U.S. Comparative Advantage

Analysis of data covering 134, three-digit (SIC) manufacturing industries from the mid-sixties to the mid-eighties undermines the claim that unions are responsible for altering the composition of U.S. trade flows. Heavily unionized industries are not found to have lost any more to imports nor gained any more in exports than comparable U.S. industries. On the other hand, industrial concentration appears to be a significant disadvantage.     

Search Costs, Lags and Prices at the Pump

Evidence is mounting that long lags and asymmetric price responses to changes in wholesale prices are characteristic of many retail markets. Although long lags are often attributed to search costs, little empirical evidence exists to support this claim. The analysis offered in this paper compares price responses in gasoline and diesel markets in 15 U.S. cities. Search costs vary across these two markets, and the evidence indicates a much faster response in the diesel market where search costs are lower. Asymmetric responses, where prices rise faster than they fall, are also evident in the data. While asymmetric responses have been attributed to oligopolistic behavior, the arguments presented in this paper point to search theory as an alternative explanation.     

Three problems in applying contestability to regulated markets

The theory of contestable markets emphasizes that the ease of entry rather than the number of existing firms forces incumbents to set prices at optimal levels. The policy implications of this work contrast sharply with past U.S. regulatory and antitrust policies, legitimizing increased industry concentration and decreased regulation. This paper explores three factors that influence the desirability of regulation or antitrust policy despite the apparent existence of a contestable market time lags, technological change, and cyclical macroeconomic fluctuations. Time lags enable incumbents to earnsupra-normal profits and take last-minute action to forestall entry. New technologies can create sunk costs that reduce the contestability of a market. Recessions can depress capital markets, raising the cost of exit, while expansion creates opportunities for entry without threatening monopolistic prices. These shortcomings limi the ability of contestability theory to provide guidelines for the regulation of actual industries.     

Sunk costs,contestability and airline monopoly power

This paper examines the effects of sunk costs and potential competition on pricing behavior in monopoly airline markets. We find little evidence to support the proposition from contestable markets theory that the level of sunk costs influences pricing by monopolists. Rather, the results support the view, consistent with numerous game theoretic oligopoly models, that the costs and the price-cutting reputation of potential entrants influence incumbent behavior. These results suggest that contestability theory may not be robust. Even in the markets characterized by increasing returns to scale, the perfectly contestable market may not be a useful welfare standard.I am grateful to Richard Levin, Merton J. Peck, Sharon Oster, Paul MacAvoy, Dan Kaplan, Michael Levine, David Sappington, Andrea Shepard, and Diana Strassman for their advice. Participants at numerous workshops also made useful comments. Steven Davis, Tadas Osmolshis, and Maeve O'Higgins provided help with the data and technical assistance. I acknowledge financial support from Yale University and the Eno Foundation for Transportation. The usual disclaimer, of course, applies.     

The determinants of entry and exit rates into U.S. manufacturing industries

Entry and exit rates are examined across a fairly large sample of 4-digit U.S. manufacturing industries. Market growth significantly increases (reduces) entry (exit) rates. Profits increase entry rates. Advertising clearly acts as an entry barrier. Sunk capital costs seem to deter exit. While entry and exit rates are related in the sample, whether they are simultaneously determined is unclear.     

Publication of Information and Market Response: The Case of Airline on Time Performance Reports

This paper investigates market response to publication of on time performance information. Theory suggests that reduction in search costs generates more honest airlines and better quality service, a distribution of price-quality bundles, increased demand, exit by inefficient airlines and reduction of price rigidity. An ARIMA study of U.S. domestic airline operations finds that after publication of performance information the market generated better performance, increased quality distribution, enhanced demand, exit by four of fourteen airlines and reduced price-quality rigidity. Publication of information may improve performance in markets characterized by asymmetric information and high search costs.     

Structural estimation of price adjustment costs in the European car market

This paper characterizes the price adjustment costs that are consistent with observed price dynamics in the European car market. We estimate a dynamic model of international multiproduct firms that set prices in different currencies while facing price adjustment costs. We find that large price adjustment costs are not needed to rationalize the substantial degree of price inertia we observe in the data. Intuitively, since GDP, wages and exchange rates exhibit such a large degree of autocorrelation, small adjustment costs can explain very persistent prices. Also, accounting for country-specific price sensitivity, wages, GDP and exchange rates, the price adjustment costs should differ substantially across producers and markets to match the data.     

What Fraction of a Capital Investment is Sunk Costs?

To what extent are capital investments sunk costs? This question is addressed by examining the salvage values of discarded metalworking machinery. Even though such assets are expected to be non‐specific, many discarded assets are scrapped rather than sold on second‐hand markets. Econometric results suggest that firms can only expect to get back 20–50 percent of the initial price of a ‘new’ machine once it is installed. The results also indicate differences in value‐age profiles across firms, but provide only weak support for the hypothesis that salvage values are particularly low during recessions.     

Office Rent Processes: The Case of U.S. Metropolitan Markets

This paper synthesizes elements of the traditional and contemporary theory of real estate markets to formulate an empirical framework for exploring metropolitan office rent processes. Such a framework is then applied to the analysis of office rents across 18 U.S. office markets during 1986–1995. The empirical results underscore the sluggishness of rental adjustments, highlight the extent of rental disequilibria across markets, and uncover the role of office employment factors (such as size, diversity, spatial organization, growth rates, and volatility), construction costs, interest rates, amenities, and zoning in shaping interarea differentials in the equilibrium component of office rents.     

ENTRY AND COMPETITION IN LOCAL HOSPITAL MARKETS*

We extend the entry model developed by Bresnahan and Reiss to make use of quantity information, and apply it to data on the U.S. hospital industry. The Bresnahan and Reiss model infers changes in the toughness of competition from entry threshold ratios. Entry threshold ratios, however, identify the product of changes in the toughness of competition and changes in fixed costs. By using quantity data, we are able to identify separately changes in the toughness of competition from changes in fixed costs. This model is generally applicable to industries where there are good data on market structure and quantity, but not on prices, as for example in the quinquennial U.S. Economic Census. In the hospital markets we examine, entry leads to a quick convergence to competitive conduct. Entry reduces variable profits and increases quantity. Most of the effects of entry come from having a second and a third firm enter the market.     

U.S. national security export controls: Implications for global competitiveness of U.S. high-tech firms

U.S. exporters of high-technology, ‘dual-use’ products are competitively disadvantaged in global markets by the complexity, range, and stringency of U.S. national security export controls. This paper demonstrates that fungibility of high technology and lax interpretation of multilateral export control agreements by other advanced countries have made the existing control regime ineffective. It further shows that persistent U.S. restrictiveness of exports in non-critical, widely available goods and technologies may needlessly and permanently erode U.S. firms' competitive position in existing as well as rapidly-opening markets worldwide. The need to revise the notion of national security to include not only military security, but also its complement, economic security, is discussed. The pivotal issue of enforceability of multilateral controls is explored, and corporate strategies for U.S. high-tech firms to achieve export control policy change are suggested.     

U.S. Foreign Production and Unions

Based on analysis of industry by region data the author finds little evidence that U.S. unions have been a significant factor in the decision of U.S. firms to produce abroad. In effect, the composition of U.S. foreign production does not appear to be drawn from U.S. industries with especially high domestic unionization. Corresponding with previous research, the research do indicate that monopoly power, foreign tariffs and barriers, and the size and distance of foreign markets and important determinants of U.S. foreign production.     

Domestic Market Structure and Performance in Global Markets: Theory and Empirical Evidence from U.S. Food Manufacturing Industries

This paper formally articulates Porter's hypothesis that the degree of competition in domestic markets is positively linked to performance in international markets. Hypotheses are tested using measures of the trade performance of U.S. food manufacturing industries as proxies for international competitiveness. Empirical results are generally consistent with Porter's hypothesis; net export share is negatively related to industry concentration. The competitiveness of agricultural inputs, R & D intensity, and trade barriers of other countries were also found to be important determinants of the performance of these industries in global markets.     

Globalization and Declining Unionization in the United States

For decades, the private‐sector unionization rate in the United States has been falling. At the same time, the integration of the United States into the world economy has been rising. Many anecdotes suggest the latter has played a role in that decline, with unions feeling pressured to reduce employment and/or compensation demands in the face of rising cross‐border activity of employers. To investigate this possibility econometrically, in this paper I assembled a panel of U.S. manufacturing industries that matches union‐coverage rates with measures of global engagement such as exports, imports, tariffs, transportation costs, and foreign direct investment. The main finding is a statistically and economically significant correlation between falling union coverage and greater numbers of inward FDI transactions. Possible interpretations of this finding are then discussed. Because U.S. affiliates of foreign multinationals have higher unionization rates than U.S.‐based firms do, this correlation does not reflect just a compositional shift toward these affiliates. Instead, it may reflect pressure of international capital mobility on U.S.‐based companies, consistent with research on how rising capital mobility raises labor‐demand elasticities and alters bargaining power.     

MARKET SIZE MATTERS

This paper characterizes the effects of market size on the size distribution of establishments for thirteen retail trade industries across 225 U.S. cities. In most industries we examine, establishments are larger in larger cities. Models of large-group competition in which markups fall after adding competitors can reproduce this observation.     

LEARNING‐BY‐DOING AND MARKET STRUCTURE*

Applying the Olley‐Pakes estimation technique to an augmented production function, we estimate rates of learning‐by‐doing in over 250 SIC4 industries in the U.S. manufacturing sector. We then examine the link between learning and producer concentration using Sutton's bounds approach. We find that the lower bound of concentration is higher in high‐learning industries, which suggests that learning‐by‐doing has characteristics of an endogenous sunk cost.