完善基层税收入库监管工作的建议

对代理中国人民银行经理国库的行为进行监管是《中国人民银行法》赋予人民银行的重要职责．在人民银行职能转换期间，作为基层人民银行的国库工作，如何适应职能转换，克服目前基层国库工作“重核算，轻监管”的被动格局．完善和建立起制度明确、     

适应监管职能分离新形势 开创基层央行工作新局面

银行业监督管理职能从人民银行分离出来,是我国金融体制改革的重大举措。基层人民银行要以“三个代表”重要思想为指导,自觉主动适应这一新形势,认真履行中央银行职责,集中精力做好各项基础性工作,强化货币政策职能,提高清算服务水平,努力实现金融调控方式的转变,开创基层央行工作新局面。一、把握基层央行职能重心,实现“三个转变”监管职能分离后,基层央行贯彻执行货币政策和提供金融服务的职能显得更加突出,同时,根据我国金融业的风险状况和人民银行在金融业中的核心地位,基层央行还承担防范化解系统性金融风险,维护金融稳定的职能。因此…     

基层央行开展“两管理、两综合”工作中的法律问题

2003年,银行监管职能分离后,人民银行管理职能有所弱化,“重服务、轻管理”现象比较突出。基层央行在对金融机构进行监管时面临手段缺乏,金融机构不支持、不配合等情况。为进一步强化职能履行,树立央行权威,人民银行各级行积极探索加强履职、强化金融管理的新途径。本文结合目前开展的“两管理、两综合”工作,从法律层面分析基层央行履行监管职责中面临的难题,并提出解决建议。     

当前基层央行行使会计及支付结算监管职能中存在的难点及对策

会计监管及支付结算监管作为中央银行会计部门的基本职能之一．是维护支付清算系统正常运行的必要手段和重要保障。随着人民银行职能的转变及金融业分业经营、监管,中央银行会计监管职能也进行l『相应的调整。但由于受各种因素的制约,使基层央行会计监管职能作用没有得到充分的发挥。     

对人民银行"最后贷款人"职责的再认识

2003年9月国务院确定的人民银行“三定”方案及修订后的《中华人民共和国中国人民银行法》都明确了人民银行今后将围绕金融宏观调控、维护金融稳定、提供金融服务三大方面开展工作。也就是说，维护金融稳定成为银行业金融机构具体的监管职能（市场准人监管、市场运营监管、市场退出监管）被分离后人民银行的一项重要职责，而维护金融稳定．从各国中央银行既有的实践看．大多通过中央银行“最后贷款人”制度的安排进行，按照巴塞尔银行监管委员会《有效银行监管的核心原则》的要求．中央银行的“最后贷款人”职能与金融监管当局的审慎监管及存款保险制度（包括投资者补偿机制）共同构成一国金融安全网的三大基本要素．成为一国银行业监管当局提高监管有效性的先决条件。随着我国现代金融企业制度的逐步建立．在金融机构市场退出机制不太完善的情况下．重新认识中央银行的“最后贷款人”职能．合理地解决相关问题和建立相关制度．发挥其稳定金融作用．将有积极意义。     

基层央行会计监管中存在的问题及对策

一、会计监管过程中存在的问题1.监管观念淡薄和客观条件的限制影响了会计监管职能的发挥。人民银行独立行使中央银行职能以来,会计部门由于仍然承担着部分人民银行自身的业务核算工作,会计工作人员只是侧重于日常的核算业务,忽视了会计监管职能的发挥。一是基层中央银行的会计     

基层人民银行在维护金融稳定中的难点及对策

2004年新的《中国人民银行法》的颁布实施,以法律的形式明确了人民银行维护金融稳定的职能．人民银行与监管职能的分离,进一步增强了中央银行制定和执行货币政策职能,同时更加突出了中央银行在维护金融稳定中的作用。目前基层人民银行在防范金融风险、维护金融稳定工作中如何利用有限的监管资源、增强央行监管的有效性、最大限度维护辖区金融稳定存在着一些困难和问题,值得我们深入研究探讨。     

构建基层国库有效监管新体系的思考

一、基层国库实施监管工作的必要性（一）加强国库监管是履行人民银行经理国库职能的需要。新修订的《中国人民银行法》明确规定人民银行“经理国库”职能,这从法律上确立了国库具有监督管理的职责。《国家金库条例》中也明确规定,国库在办理国家预算资金的收入和支出任务中,负有执行、促进和监督的职责。     

对银监会基层监管组履行监管职能的探讨

银监会成立后,在部分县市挂牌成立银监会县市一级监管组的工作正在有序进行。但现阶段各有关方面对这些问题的探讨并不很多,表现出一定的滞后性。本文着重就银监会基层监管组在机构改革工作转轨中面临的问题以及今后履行监管职能等作一初步探讨。     

对加强财政部门会计行业监管的思考

实行会计监管是财政部门的一项基本职能．也是保障财政部门实现其职能、维护财经秩序的重要手段。认真了解会计行业监管实际，深入研究、分析会计监管中存在的问题，积极构建财政部门会计监管新机制．是促进社会主义市场经济健康发展的内在要求。本文结合近年监管工作实际，对现阶段会计监管现状做出了基本判断与分析，     

Almanac of anticipations: The age of affluence—of anticipation—of anxiety—of automation—of discontinuity—of longing—of overkill—of space exploration

With this survey of developments in the futures field since 1945, I.F. Clarke completes his present series for Futures. He makes two major points: that forecasting techniques have become essential tools in the management of change; and that nuclear weapons and ecological problems have added a moral dimension to the study of the future. In the next issue of Futures he will start a new series on the range of future-thinking in the USA, from the expectations of the first settlers to the Star Wars programme.     

基金公司经营融资融券业务的问题审视

融资融券业务正式运营已经开展,为证券市场带来了革命性的改革,作为证券市场的一大主体,基金公司面对融资融券也迎来了新的发展方向和挑战,本文从融资融券业务的运行机制入手,分析了基金公司融资融券的新契机,并对其即将面临的问题进行审视和剖析,进而提出策略建议.     

对基层人民银行科技工作的几点建议

银监会分设后,人民银行将专司货币政策、金融稳定、金融服务三大职能。作为人民银行的分支机构,基层人民银行的工作重心也将从金融监管调整到这三大职能上来。人民银行的科技部门,就要积极运用科技手段,为人民银行履行新的职能发挥“服务、支持、促进、发展”的作用。一、围绕三大职能搭建五大平台经过“六五打基础、七五作准备、八五大发展”几个阶段后,人民银行相继实现了核算电算化、清算网络化和办公信息化。特别是近一两年来,陆续开通了大额支付系统、信贷登记咨询系统、会计四集中系统、金融信息服务网站等系统,人民银行信息化水平又…     

The Usefulness of Measures of Consistency of Discretionary Components of Accruals in the Detection of Earnings Management

Abstract:  Prior research has shown the prevalence of measurement error in models used to estimate aggregate discretionary accruals. In these models, the incremental information content of the various components of accruals is ignored. Limited prior research and data gathered from firms under Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) litigation indicate that managers use either one or more than one component of accruals simultaneously, in a consistent way to manipulate bottom-line earnings in a given direction. I propose two measures that capture the consistency between the discretionary components of accruals and test their significance in earnings management (EM) detection in firms that have artificially added accrual manipulation and firms that were targeted by the SEC for accrual manipulation. There is evidence that this information is incrementally useful in detecting EM. This finding paves the way for improvements in the discretionary accruals measure by including consistency information from the components of aggregate accruals.     

社会主义所有制形式的改革、完善与共产党执政能力的提高

在中国,所有制形式的调整、改革与完善,先进生产力的发展,党的执政能力建设,是社会主义建设过程中密切结合在一起的三个不同层面的发展关系.应在相互促进和共同提高中促进社会的和谐发展,保证社会主义现代化建设战略目标的顺利实现.     

Summary of Results of Survey of Seminar Attendees

Abstract

The Society of Actuaries undertook a three-phase research project on mortality improvement in the three NAFTA countries: Canada, Mexico, and the U.S. Phase 1 consisted of a literature review of papers on projecting mortality levels in the future and a study of the trend in mortality improvement during this century. Phase 2 consisted of a discussion of different facets of modeling mortality rates at a seminar attended by 79 experts (actuaries, demographers, economists, and medical researchers) representing different countries. The last session of the seminar consisted of the completion of a survey by the attendees to obtain input for Phase 3, which would analyze the impact of mortality improvement on the social security system of each country. This paper summarizes the results of the survey.

The survey results illustrate the difficulty in forecasting mortality levels, because the effects of many factors that could have significant impact on mortality rates are unknown. This suggests the need for dynamic forecasting, which allows for the possibility of random shocks. A majority of the survey respondents believe that stochastic forecasting models, despite their complexity, have significant potential to add value. Respondents also believe that both historical data and cause-specific mortality forecasts are useful as input and also in validating forecasts of the aggregate levels of mortality. The challenge is to develop more sophisticated forecasting models to produce results that are relatively easy to interpret and to communicate these results to the desired audiences, including the public and policymakers.

The survey results suggest that the aggregate effect of lifestyle changes, medical advances, diseases, catastrophe, and physical environmental changes is an increase in life span. However, there is much uncertainty about the future. Respondents expect that beyond the year 2020 the mean annual rate of reduction in mortality for males age 65 and over will average about 0.58% for Canada, 0.76% for Mexico, and 0.67% for the U.S. The results for the female age 65 and over population are 0.64%, 0.83%, and 0.70%, respectively. The age 65 and over population is expected to see larger percentage reductions in mortality than the 0–14 and 15–64 populations. The reductions in male and female mortality will be ultimately the same, and the mortality levels in the three countries will ultimately converge, although differences may persist for decades.     

Separation of Unit of Account from Medium of Exchange

The separation of a unit of account (UoA) from a medium of exchange (MoE) in the commodity–money system is investigated by considering explicitly a seller's choice of UoA in terms of either an MoE or a unit of metal weight. If the likelihood of debasement of an MoE and its rate are high enough, the price is posted in terms of a unit of metal weight rather than an MoE. Interestingly, this MoE–UoA separated equilibrium yields the flexible nominal price, whereas an MoE–UoA integrated equilibrium yields the sticky one. This implies the nominal price rigidity in the fiat‐money system where MoE and UoA are integrated.     

银行软件项目外包管理分析

一、引言随着国民经济的不断发展,银行业务与外部企业的联系越来越密切。银行正逐步成为现代经济活动的中心,作为数据处理核心的银行业务应用也越来越大型化、越来越复杂化,因此许多银行也把软件项目逐步由原来的自主开发转变为与公司合作的方式,或直接外包开发的方式,银行本身的技术人员也逐步由开发转向项目管理。二、项目外包的分类银行项目的外包有以下几种情况:①部分子系统外包,有时由于银行的软件项目太大,单靠银行自身的开发力量基本无法在预定的时间内完成项目,只好把相对独立的部分外包;②直接购买软件公司的成熟产品,有些金融软…     

银行管理信息平台建设发展的思考

一、目前国内银行IT发展现状及面临的问题 银行数据集中工作的完成,标志着银行的业务由电子化建设阶段转入信息化建设阶段.一方面银行数据的集中提供了丰富全面的基础数据,面对日益庞大的数据源,如何将数字转化为对银行有用的信息,并从中发现知识,为银行的经营决策提供支持,是摆在银行IT人员面前的一个亟待解决的问题.另一方面用户对银行信息的需求日益增长,如果银行没有一套完整、实用的信息管理系统,将对业务发展非常不利.南京爱立信公司倒戈花旗银行事件曾经轰动一时,其中一个重要原因就是中国本地银行不能满足爱立信全球总部对南京爱立信公司的要求:每周财务上报和每天贷款限额管理.这一事件为中国商业银行的未来发展敲响了警钟,如果不加快管理信息系统的开发,迅速提升业务管理水平,类似的事件还会接连不断地发生,并最终导致国内商业银行在同国外商业银行的竞争中全面溃败.     

Properties of time-series estimates of degree of leverage measures

Empirical studies suggest that time-series regression estimates of the degrees of operating and financial leverage have a tendency to produce measures less than one. According to ex ante theory, these measures should be greater than one for firms operating above the breakeven point. There have also been suggestions that the biases in these estimates may be attributable to an underlying increase in unit sales. This work presents evidence that these counter-intuitive measures are produced by changes in the firm's operating parameters (unit price, variable cost, fixed cost and interest payments). It further suggests that attempts to control for the underlying change in unit sales substantially increase the volatility of predicted estimates.