小额货款公司：定位、约束与监管一致性

小额贷款公司的出现为解决金融歧视、拓宽中小微企业及“三农”融资渠道提供了必要的补充；同时，也使得民间资本阳光化，更便于监管。但是，定位不合理导致的多头监管制约了小额贷款公司的可持续发展。文章在分析小额贷款公司发展现状的基础上，重点分析了小额贷款公司的定位与约束及存在问题，并有针对性地提出了对策，观点如下：小额贷款公司的政策目标定位与财政支持须一致；公司性质定位与从事业务须一致；从事业务与监管原则须一致；取消融资及资金运用约束，重点监管资金来源的合法性。     

对河北省小额贷款公司经营状况的调查

为全面掌握小额贷款公司经营现状及存在的主要问题,2013年9月,中国人民银行石家庄中心支行调查统计处对河北省75家小额贷款公司进行了问卷调查.调查显示:河北省小额贷款公司总体运行平稳,风险可控;资金主要投向农户和小微企业,有效支持了弱势群体的经营发展,但是企业贷款利率较高;资金来源受限,融资成本较高,整体融资难度较大;面临的主要风险是贷款违约风险以及由于融资受限而导致的流动性风险,但向金融机构传染的潜在风险不大.     

小额贷款公司运行与评价——小额贷款公司发展中的问题研究

我国小额贷款公司发展迅猛，在服务小微企业和“三农”方面取得了很大的成绩。但是，从可持续经营的角度来看，小额贷款公司的发展还存在诸多问题。从一些小额贷款公司和监管部门的具体表现看，大体表现为：各地小额贷款公司的监管规定和实践有较大差异，稳健发展原则受到挑战；行业监管往往不能适应业务发展的需求，急需切实强化；管理不规范，小额贷款公司的治理存在缺陷；人员素质参差不齐，经营管理能力和风险控制水平低：小额贷款公司贷款多爱“进城弃乡、嫌贫爱富，垒大弃小”；利费率偏高或过高，违规行为频发；银行贷款风险管理难度较大，风险不确定性高。针对小额贷款公司存在的诸多问题，文章提出了相应的政策建议。     

天津市非金融企业杠杆率水平测算及风险防范

本文采用宏观和微观相结合的方式研究天津市非金融企业杠杆率问题.经测算,在宏观杠杆率方面,天津市非金融企业杠杆率远高于全国平均水平,主要融资工具杠杆率均处于上升通道,其中间接融资杠杆占主导地位.在微观杠杆率方面,天津市非金融企业杠杆率高于全国平均水平及其他直辖市水平,且呈现“国进民退”、“顾大失小”、“避轻就重”、“喜旧厌新”四个特征和趋势.究其原因,天津市良好的经济发展环境,投资驱动型增长模式,经济结构偏重,企业规模偏大、国企比例偏高等微观企业结构,股权融资参与度不足、利率水平较低等金融生态造就了天津市非金融企业杠杆率过高.在简要分析了高杠杆率所带来的潜在风险后,本文立足于中央银行角度,从维持适应的货币环境、促进企业主体转型升级、减轻企业利息负担和有效防范金融风险等四个方面给出政策建议.     

小额贷款公司可持续发展研究——以内蒙古为例

本文通过调查全区小额贷款公司近几年经营情况、特点、影响其发展的因素,对小额贷款公司的发展可持续性进行了分析,得出如下结论：小额贷款公司总体经营情况良好,业务发展迅速,作为现有中小金融机构的必要补充,在支持县域经济、区域经济和农牧业经济发展中作用突出,当前面临的主要问题是性质定位不明、监管归属不清、出路不明确、融资杠杆不到位、税费负担过重。制约了小额贷款公司的市场空间与盈利空间,亟需规范管理和政策支持。     

四大措施促进小额贷款公司发展

全国人大财经委副主任委员、中国人民银行原副行长吴晓灵表示,目前小额贷款公司经营状况并不理想,需要从四方面完善政策环境,促进小额贷款公司发展,缓解小企业融资难的问题。吴晓灵强调,目前需要从四方面完善发展小额贷款公司的政策环境：首先,在对贷款公司融资的控制方面,要正确评估银行向贷款公司融资的风险。贷款公司向银行的贷款可以算是一种组合贷款,     

小额贷款公司制度目标及其实现路径探讨

小额贷款公司的制度目标主要在于引导资金流向农村和欠发达地区，提高农户和小微企业的信贷服务可获得性，然而对小额贷款公司的调查发现，小额贷款公司的平均贷款额度相对较大、客户群体的收入水平和资产规模相对较高，在一定程度上偏离了制度目标群体，主要原因在于农村金融市场竞争不足，小额贷款公司的商业性质、制度安排的缺陷，相关政策的冲突导致正向激励机制不足。为此，笔者认为，应该明确小额贷款公司的身份，并取消贷款利率上限限制和提高对外融资比例，并继续放宽农村金融市场准入，以通过市场的良性竞争促进小额贷款公司客户群体的逐渐下移。     

疫情下中国宏观杠杆率的新变化、风险与应对策略

2020年在新冠疫情冲击下,逆周期调控政策推动宏观杠杆率快速攀升,表明自2015年起的去杠杆进程告一段落。与2008-2014年加杠杆阶段相比,2020年各部门加杠杆的结构、渠道、期限出现新变化。非金融企业部门加杠杆的主体发生变化,国企杠杆率趋于下降,私营企业负债快速增加。"房住不炒"下居民平稳加杠杆,贷款增速有所回落。政府部门对宏观杠杆率增幅贡献率上升,中央政府承担支出责任的主动性提高,地方政府市场化融资水平提升。总的来看,宏观杠杆率快速上升缓冲了疫情负面影响,促进金融服务实体经济,但也提高了企业、居民债务风险,加重了地方财政收支平衡的压力。当前,要处理好稳增长和防风险的关系,稳定宏观杠杆率,有序处置各部门债务风险,健全多层次资本市场,提高直接融资占比。     

小额贷款公司:市场作用及行业监管分析

正自2008年地方政府开展小额贷款公司试点工作以来,小额贷款公司发展迅速,截至201 1年6月末,全国共有小额贷款公司3366家,实收资本2464亿元,贷款余额达到了2875亿元。然而,伴随着小额贷款公司的快速发展,其行业监管乏力的问题日益凸显,系统性风险正在酝酿,应未雨绸缪,加强小额贷款公司的行业监管。     

要闻回放

新贷款通则拟将民间借贷纳入监管 央行相关负责人25日在北京表示,修订后的贷款通则征求意见稿已基本形成,央行计划取消对小额贷款公司贷款利率上限的规定,同时使现有一些非银行类民间贷款机构合法化,以帮助解决中小企业融资困难的问题。央行还将提议取消自1995年起实行的、小额贷款利率不能超过基准利率4倍的规定,并放松对小额贷款机构资金借入的限制。     

East and west and north and south : A preliminary model

The Brandt report and other proposals for a new North-South world order continue to be the focus of lively debate, yet it is often argued that little concrete has emerged from their recommendations. A major reason for this, the author argues, is that the East-West conflict component is not sufficiently taken into consideration-East-West tensions are a severe constraint on and a determining factor of North-South relations. Using influence diagrams, the author develops a flexible framework for discussion and assessment of N/S-E/W relations.     

Amplification and asymmetry in crashes and frenzies

We often observe disproportionate reactions to tangible information in large stock price movements. Moreover these movements feature an asymmetry: the number of crashes is more than that of frenzies in the S&P 500 index. This paper offers an explanation for these two characteristics of large movements in which hedging (portfolio insurance) causes amplified price reactions to news and liquidity shocks as well as an asymmetry biased towards crashes. Risk aversion of traders is shown to be essential for the asymmetry of price movements. Also, we show that differential information can enhance both amplification and asymmetry delivered by hedging. This paper is based on part of my Ph.D. thesis submitted to the University of Minnesota. I am grateful to Andy McLennan and Jan Werner for their valuable advice and unwavering support. Also, I would like thank Mehmet Barlo, Michele Boldrin, Partha Chatterjee, Mehmet Ozhabes, Dimitrios Tsomocos and seminar participants at the University of Minnesota, the MEA and the MFA Meetings in St Louis for helpful comments. Comments on a previous draft by an anonymous referee greatly improved the presentation of this paper. Financial support from William W. Stout Fellowship is gratefully acknowledged.     

旅游企业与社区居民利益冲突及协调博弈研究

随着旅游业发展的深入,旅游企业与社区居民的利益冲突及协调问题成为影响旅游业发展的重点问题。从旅游企业和社区居民的单次博弈入手建立模型,并通过重复博弈模型分析,探索实现利益协调的路径。提出完善社区居民旅游开发参与机制和构建收益均衡分配机制,解决旅游企业与社区居民的利益协调问题。     

Noise trading and prime and score premiums

This paper documents that a common element drives the time-series variation of the premium pricing of Primes and Scores. I argue that this common element is noise trading. The noise trading model of Delong, Shleifer, Summers and Waldmann (1990) predicts that returns on assets that are predominantly traded by noise traders will be correlated, since the misperceptions of noise traders are cross-sectionally correlated. Consistent with the noise trading hypothesis, changes in the average premium of Primes and Scores, which are predominantly traded by individual investors, are correlated with both changes in average discounts of closed-end funds and small firms returns. These empirical facts provide additional evidence that noise traders can affect security prices.     

Debt and Taxes and Uncertainty

With a graduated personal tax schedule, Miller showed that there could be an equilibrium debt supply for the corporate sector as a whole. In the presence of uncertainty there is also a unique debt/equity ratio for each individual firm, and this ratio is related to the firm's operational risk characteristics. However, if firms merge and spin off in response to tax incentives, the identity of firms is ambiguous and only the corporate sector is a meaningful construct. These arguments are developed in both discrete and continuous models that employ extensions of the arbitrage-free pricing theory.     

美国“两房”危机分析及启示

文章分析了“两房”危机的形成过程,以及美国政府应对“两房”危机的救助措施。虽然美国金融海啸对国内上市银行的投资影响不大,但国内银行业对海外投资与交易的风险管理有待加强。面对全球市场动荡,文章从加强监管、完善政策调控、稳定房地产市场发展,以及提高金融机构风险管理能力等方面提出应对之策。     

Aggressive CEOs and bank mergers and acquisitions

The U.S. banking industry has seen waves of mergers since the 1980s. Despite a significant body of research on the determinants of these waves, there are few studies of how CEOs influence banks’ mergers and acquisitions (M&As). This paper studies the effect of CEO aggressiveness on bank M&As. We construct a new measure of bank CEO aggressiveness based on CEOs’ ancestral countries of origin and data on inter-country wars. We find that aggressive CEOs are more likely to acquire other banks. Moreover, the impact of CEO aggressiveness on bank M&A decisions is more pronounced when the CEOs are from larger and more profitable banks, when CEOs have a longer tenure, and when CEOs’ ancestral country of origin has a more masculine culture. Moreover, we show that aggressive CEOs are more likely to make acquisitions when CEOs possess more cultural maintenance, which captures the extent to which CEOs retain their original cultural values and beliefs. Finally, we document positive short-term stock market reactions to bank M&As initiated by aggressive CEOs.     

Stock and Bond Liquidity and its Effect on Prices and Financial Policies

An asset is liquid if it can be traded at the prevailing market price quickly and at low cost. We show that in addition to risk, liquidity affects asset prices and returns. Theories of asset pricing suggest that the expected return of an asset is increasing in its risk, because risk-averse investors require compensation for bearing more risk. Because investors are also averse to the costs of illiquidity and want to be compensated for bearing them, asset returns are increasing in illiquidity. Thus, asset prices should depend on two asset characteristics: risk and liquidity. This paper surveys research on the effects of liquidity on asset prices and returns, showing that liquidity is an important factor in capital asset pricing.     

Cloud-based client accounting and small and medium accounting practices: Adoption and impact

Cloud accounting represents a major disruptive technology for the accounting industry. This qualitative study used semi-structured interviews to collect data from eight small and medium accounting practices (SMPs) to test a preliminary model of the determinants and impact of cloud-based client accounting adoption by SMPs. Accordingly, the SMP was the unit of analysis. The complex triadic relationship between SMPs, their clients and cloud accounting provider necessitated an interorganisational perspective. Four factors contributed to SMPs’ adoption decisions: perceived benefits of cloud-based client accounting, perceived benefits of partner programs, organisational readiness (IT sophistication and client readiness), and external pressure (client and competitive pressures). Subsequent to adoption, SMPs experienced a decline in the levels of traditional (statutory) services provided. However, most noted increases in income from business advisory. All firms were at least as well off after adoption. Improvements in client relationships and the perceived value of accountants’ services were also noted. An adoption/impact typology predicted and found positive impacts for cloud initiators, in particular. The findings have implications for owners of SMPs, their SME clients, and for accounting professional bodies.