保险机构与其他金融机构系统关联性研究——兼论保险机构的系统重要性

金融机构混业经营的趋势在提高金融体系效率的同时加剧了其关联性风险,这使得研究我国保险机构与其他金融机构间的系统关联性问题尤为重要。本文选取保险、银行、证券与信托四部门的上市金融机构,分别在一般情况和两次牛熊市转化的极端情况下基于Granger因果网络模型研究保险机构与其他金融机构系统关联性,并且在考虑规模、关联性与复杂度三个因素下对金融机构进行了系统重要性分析。研究表明,银行部门是与保险部门联系最紧密的金融部门;保险部门对其他金融部门在熊市时比在牛市时存在更显著的Granger关系;规模是保险机构系统重要性评估中的重要指标。     

金融稳定边界与系统性金融风险指数测度研究北大核心CSSCI

基于我国资金存量表明细数据,本文构建了五部门金融资产负债关联网络,使用网络模型方法,对五部门间金融风险传染效应进行了分析,并测度了我国系统性金融风险指数(SRI指数)。研究发现:(1)2017年以来,我国部门间资产负债关联网络的风险抵御能力整体明显增强,1单位风险冲击引发的风险传染总损失效应逐渐减弱。(2)从金融稳定边界看,金融部门最低,为年均24.4%;政府部门和国外部门则高达70%以上。(3)2017年以来,我国SRI指数平均为0.61%,表明金融系统总体较为稳健;但受疫情影响,2020年第一季度末SRI指数阶段性有所上升。未来,为防范系统性风险大幅波动,应保持宏观调控政策的连续稳定及灵活前瞻性,使各类风险防控政策适度走在市场曲线之前。     

尾部风险溢出网络与系统性金融风险研究 ——基于TENET方法的多角度实证

本文从尾部风险溢出视角出发,运用TENET模型,搭建了我国金融体系总体、部门间和机构间的风险溢出网络,并在此基础上进行了实证检验.结果发现:(1)金融体系风险的积聚和释放过程,因重大事件类型的不同而存在显著差异:如果重大事件由宏观经济发展或市场效应所致,危机发生前的网络关联性会显著增强;如果重大事件由突发性及难以预测的"新冠肺炎疫情"等黑天鹅事件所致,危机发生后的网络关联性会显著增强.(2)在尾部风险关联网络拓扑中,证券业的尾部风险溢出效应最强,风险网络中心性最突出;而银行业抵御风险冲击的能力最强.(3)在金融机构系统重要性方面,银行、保险和证券业的系统重要性依次递减,其中,大型国有银行的系统重要性最强.因此,监管部门应加强对大型国有商业银行动态尾部风险的监控及其溢出效应的防范,加强系统性风险的前瞻性监管.     

网络视角下金融机构风险传染效应的动态演化

随着我国混业经营的趋势越来越明显,金融机构业务结构也向着多元化的方向发展。在此背景下,风险传播渠道随之扩大,系统性风险发生的可能性也逐渐增加。为此,基于尾部风险相依性测算的视角,本文采用时变SJC-copula模型对金融机构间的尾部风险结构进行建模,以分析其非对称性、时变性等复杂特征,并在此基础上采用阈值法构建我国上市金融机构尾部风险相依性阈值网络,通过网络分析法对我国金融系统中各机构风险传播的途径以及演化过程进行分析。结果显示,2015-2019年间,我国金融机构的总体风险呈上升趋势,银行和证券机构的风险主要在其部门内部传播,而保险和信托机构的风险则有跨部门传播的趋势。本文还发现2016年我国金融机构的总体风险明显增加,考虑到2015年我国金融市场的动荡,本文认为,市场的不确定性增加了系统性风险发生的可能性,但是在时间上表现出一定的滞后性。该文的研究意义在于,为我国宏观审慎政策框架的构建提供相应的依据与支持。     

金融空间网络结构特征与系统性金融风险的关系分析

本文采用2000～2020年我国所有上市金融机构的日收益率数据构建了金融空间网络。通过分析网络的演变发现：商业银行的系统重要性最强,中小型金融机构的聚类系数最强;网络的平均风险溢出效应、中心化程度、聚集化程度总体上呈下降趋势。研究表明：金融机构的边际风险价值与其节点强度、度中心性、特征向量中心性、聚类系数正相关;与网络扩张指数正相关,与网络密度负相关;与宏观经济指标房地产价格指数负相关,与消费者价格指数正相关。     

我国系统性金融风险传染的空间结构及时变特征

本文构建一个格兰杰因果尾部风险网络,从整体网络关联性视角考察我国系统性金融风险的空间结构及时变特征.结果表明:一是从总体看,2008年以来,金融体系风险溢出效应波动上升,资管新规的实施使溢出效应由升转降,新冠肺炎疫情导致溢出效应短暂上升,但目前已回落至低位;二是从风险的空间结构看,房地产部门较高的风险出度和入度引发了风险加速机制,使其成为重要的风险源和承担者;三是从风险的时变特征看,保险、证券等业务创新多的部门风险来源的角色在强化,银行向信托、证券业的风险溢出近年来有所上升.基于以上结论,本文认为,当前应当进一步完善资管新规,加大对金融创新业务的风险监测,密切关注房地产部门风险.     

金融创新加剧了区域金融风险吗？——基于社会网络与动态面板门槛效应的研究

本文基于2011—2020年我国31个省份的面板数据，运用主成分分析法构建区域金融风险指数，采用社会网络分析法研究金融风险指数的空间关联网络特征，探讨金融创新影响区域金融风险的非线性效应、金融风险水平空间关联网络特征的中介效应以及金融监管的调节效应。研究发现：我国31个省份的金融风险指数空间网络关联性显著存在；金融创新对区域金融风险的影响效应呈现U型非线性特征，区域金融风险水平的空间关联网络特征在其中发挥中介效应；进一步分析表明，金融监管在金融创新加剧区域金融风险的过程中起到调节作用。最后,本文提出政府加强金融监管，合理适度发展金融创新，防范系统性金融风险的政策建议。     

我国与“一带一路”沿线国家金融风险空间关联网络及传染效应分析

防范及应对国际金融风险传染已经成为各国关注及当前研究的热点问题。通过构建我国与“一带一路”沿线国家2013年至2020年金融风险指数,并采用引力模型及社会网络分析法对该区域金融风险的空间关联特性及网络传染结构进行考察。研究发现：各国家之间金融风险关联关系整体呈现不对称性,网络结构整体较为脆弱,经济发展水平较高的国家更容易处于风险关联网络中的核心位置,同时扮演“中介”及“桥梁”角色。金融风险空间关联网络块模型分析表明第一板块金融风险传染主要集中在板块内部国家之间,而第二、三、四板块相互之间金融风险的传染效应则更为明显。我国作为“风险净溢入”板块的成员,除了防范板块内部其他国家金融风险的输入,同时还要关注来自其他板块国家潜在金融风险的传播。     

我国上市银行系统关联性研究——基于方差分解的网络拓扑分析

2008年金融危机以后,系统性风险成为理论界与监管当局的重点研究领域。本文使用2013年11月至2016年9月间我国16家上市银行股价日波动率数据,通过广义方差分解模型(GVD)得到我国上市银行系统关联性矩阵,进而得到描述系统及机构间关联性的网络拓扑图。研究发现,我国上市银行系统具有"小世界"和"无标度"的网络特性,并且在样本期间内,上市银行的机构关联性呈现上升趋势,2015年股灾之后,我国银行机构的系统性风险在短期之内不但没有得以消化,反而累积了更多的风险。因而,监管部门在现今阶段不能放松警惕,而应该加强对系统重要性机构的监管。     

基于关联性角度的系统性风险度量模型研究综述

从风险监管的角度来看,实现系统性风险的准确度量是进行宏观审慎监管的基础。系统性风险主要有两个来源:一是金融体系风险与实体经济的亲周期性;二是金融机构之间的系统性关联。伴随经济全球化和金融混业经营趋势的发展,金融机构之间的关联性日益增强,这种关联性增加了个体金融机构危机蔓延的可能性。本文基于关联性的角度,总结系统性风险度量的最新进展。     

Bayesian Premium Rating with Latent Structure

We propose a fully Bayesian approach to non-life risk premium rating, based on hierarchical models with latent variables for both claim frequency and claim size. Inference is based on the joint posterior distribution and is performed by Markov Chain Monte Carlo. Rather than plug-in point estimates of all unknown parameters, we take into account all sources of uncertainty simultaneously when the model is used to predict claims and estimate risk premiums. Several models are fitted to both a simulated dataset and a small portfolio regarding theft from cars. We show that interaction among latent variables can improve predictions significantly. We also investigate when interaction is not necessary. We compare our results with those obtained under a standard generalized linear model and show through numerical simulation that geographically located and spatially interacting latent variables can successfully compensate for missing covariates. However, when applied to the real portfolio data, the proposed models are not better than standard models due to the lack of spatial structure in the data.     

The development of the group accounts disclosure system in Japan

The Japanese disclosure system of consolidated statements was introduced in 1977 and extensively revised in 1997. The role of the bureaucracy has been significant in these developments and seems to be part of Japan's closed culture. However, other explanations could also be applied. In particular, although Japanese firms opposed such disclosures on the basis of preparation costs, the Japanese government had to modernize the disclosure system, including consolidation, in order to develop the securities market regardless of an individual company's interests.     

Moments of Compound Mixed Poisson Distributions

Recursive formulae are derived for the evaluation of the moments and the descending factorial moments about a point n of mixed Poisson and compound mixed Poisson distributions, in the case where the derivative of the logarithm of the mixing density can be written as a ratio of polynomials. As byproduct, we also obtain recursive formulae for the evaluation of the moments about the origin, central moments, descending and ascending factorial moments of these distributions. Examples are also presented for a number of mixing densities.     

The designing of corporate accounting law in Japan after the Second World War

After the Second World War, during the neutralization of the controlled economy of wartime Japan, a design for a Corporate Accounting Law was elaborated by the Investigation Committee on the Business Accounting System. The Investigation Committee tried to establish not only new business accounting standards but also a central and independent administrative organ of corporate accounting regulation on the basis of the Corporate Accounting Law. The Corporate Accounting Law was expected to lay the legal foundation of the new corporate accounting regulation regime in Japan. Nevertheless, even though the original design of the fundamental accounting law was never realized, it should be considered the starting point for our understanding of external accounting history in post-war Japan.     

The deliberation around accounting techniques: accounting for depreciation and foreign exchange in an Indian jute company, 1870-1900

This paper examines the way two accounting techniques, namely depreciation and foreign exchange, were deliberated on, between 1870 and 1900, in an Indian jute company whose shareholders resided in the UK. The arena for these deliberations was the conflictual relationship between controlling and non-controlling shareholders as to how best to account for depreciation and foreign exchange especially when the particular accountings affected distributional issues such as the dividend decision. The purpose of this paper is to analyse and explain the processes by which a company's accounting practices emerge and develop as a contest between different interests. Accounting framed the parameters of the deliberations and provided the language of power and dissent. The paper uses a rich archive that includes narrative and accounting material.     

Pricing Dynamic Insurance Risks Using the Principle of Equivalent Utility

We introduce an expected utility approach to price insurance risks in a dynamic financial market setting. The valuation method is based on comparing the maximal expected utility functions with and without incorporating the insurance product, as in the classical principle of equivalent utility. The pricing mechanism relies heavily on risk preferences and yields two reservation prices - one each for the underwriter and buyer of the contract. The framework is rather general and applies to a number of applications that we extensively analyze.     

Disclosure of government financial information and the cost of local government’s debt financing——Empirical evidence from provincial investment bonds for urban construction

China’s slowing economic growth and rapid urbanization have made local government debt financing a significant issue.This study uses a sample of China’s provinc...     

Guidelines for Manuscripts Submitted to The China Journal of Accounting Research

正The China Journal of Accounting Research"CJAR"(ISSN 1755-3091)publishes quarterly.It contains peer-reviewed articles and commentaries on accounting,auditing and corporate governance issues that relate to the greater China region.We welcome the submission of both theoretical and empirical research papers pertinent to researchers,regulators and practitioners.Authors should note:1 Submissions must be original     

International harmonization of Japanese accounting standards

Historically, Japanese accounting standards have been quite distinct from International Accounting Standards (IASs) which have been perceived as being modelled on British-American accounting standards. However, in the 1990s, after the publication of E32 in 1989 and the IASC-IOSCO Agreement in 1995, the Business Accounting Deliberation Committee (BADC), the standards-setting body in Japan, has pursued a policy of harmonization with IASs. Accounting standards relating to consolidated financial statements of companies that make cross-border offerings of securities or operate worldwide are being revised drastically. This paper focuses on the development of international accounting harmonization and its impact on Japan.