Volatility and covariation of financial assets: A high-frequency analysis

Using high frequency data for the price dynamics of equities we measure the impact that market microstructure noise has on estimates of the: (i) volatility of returns; and (ii) variance–covariance matrix of n assets. We propose a Kalman-filter-based methodology that allows us to deconstruct price series into the true efficient price and the microstructure noise. This approach allows us to employ volatility estimators that achieve very low Root Mean Squared Errors (RMSEs) compared to other estimators that have been proposed to deal with market microstructure noise at high frequencies. Furthermore, this price series decomposition allows us to estimate the variance covariance matrix of n assets in a more efficient way than the methods so far proposed in the literature. We illustrate our results by calculating how microstructure noise affects portfolio decisions and calculations of the equity beta in a CAPM setting.     

A model for tax advantages of portfolios with many assets

Taxable portfolios present challenges for optimization models with even a limited number of assets. Holding many assets, however, has a distinct tax advantage over holding few assets. In this paper, we develop a model that takes an extreme view of a portfolio as a continuum of assets to gain the broadest possible advantage from holding many assets. We find the optimal strategy for trading in this portfolio in the absence of transaction costs and develop bounding approximations on the optimal value. We compare the results in a simulation study to a portfolio consisting only of a market index and show that the multi-asset portfolio’s tax advantage can lead either to significant consumption or bequest increases.     

On the precautionary demand for assets

Precautionary demand models are developed for n assets under assumptions of both fixed and variable transactions costs. Applications of the models are made to all short-run cash needs portfolios as well as to the traditional banking case. Implications of the models are shown for interest rate structure and central bank reserve and secondary reserve controls. Emphasis is put on unsolved problems with the models such as integration with capital asset pricing models and problems with intraperiod timing with the hope of spurring additional research in this rather neglected area.     

关于农业银行不良资产经营盘活的思考

文章探索加快农业银行不良资产盘活方式方法和思路。     

A general equilibrium model of changing risk premia: theory and tests

We derive and test a dynamic discrete-time model of asset returns.Both the risks of individual securities and equilibrium riskpremia change predictably in the model, but these changes canbe attributed to movements in the returns and prices of onlytwo well-diversified portfolios. Any other components of returnsshould be unpredictable. Using the generalized method of moments,the model is estimated and tested on portfolios of equities.We find the data supportive of the model's restrictions, evenwhen instruments designed to capture the January effect areemployed.     

On user costs of risky monetary assets

Summary. We extend the monetary-asset user-cost risk adjustment of Barnett, Liu and Jensen (1997) and their risk-adjusted Divisia monetary aggregates to the case of multiple non-monetary assets and intertemporal non-separability. Our model can generate potentially larger and more accurate CCAPM user-cost risk adjustments than those found in Barnett, Liu and Jensen (1997). We show that the risk adjustment to a monetary assets user cost can be measured easily by its beta. We show that any risky non-monetary asset can be used as the benchmark asset, if its rate of return is adjusted in accordance with our formula. These extensions could be especially useful, when own rates of return are subject to exchange rate risk, as in Barnett (2003).We thank participants at the 11^th Global Finance Annual Conference, Yuqing Huang, and an anonymous referee for helpful comments and suggestions.     

Intangible assets and value relevance: Evidence from the Portuguese stock exchange

We assess the value relevance of the amounts for identifiable intangible assets and goodwill reported in the financial statements of all non-finance companies listed on the main market of the Portuguese Stock Exchange from 1998 to 2008. Additionally, we use panel data to explore the impact on value relevance of Portugal’s formal adoption of International Accounting Standards [IAS] and International Financial Reporting Standards [IFRS] in 2005. A distinctive feature of the accounting by our sample companies is that when they adopted IAS 38 and IFRS 3 in 2005, they were no longer required to recognise some intangible assets (such as start-up costs and research expenditures) and were no longer required to amortise goodwill.We find that net earnings, reported goodwill and other intangible assets are highly significantly associated with stock price. However, whereas earnings are related positively to stock prices when Portuguese Generally Accepted Accounting Principles (GAAP) were applied prior to 2005, the value relevance of earnings appears to have declined after the adoption of IAS/IFRS in 2005. Although the change to IAS/IFRS had no impact on the value relevance of identifiable intangibles as a whole, the evidence suggests that there was a positive effect on the value relevance of goodwill. When the subclasses of identifiable intangible assets are considered, we found evidence of an increase in value relevance of goodwill, other intangible assets, and research and development expenditures.     

Marriage and other risky assets: A portfolio approach

We study the joint impact of gender and marital status on financial investments by testing the hypothesis that marriage represents – in a portfolio framework – a sort of safe asset and that this attribute may change over time. We show that married individuals have a higher propensity to invest in risky assets than single ones, that this marital status gap is stronger for women and that, for women only, it evolves and declines at the end of the sample period. Next we explore a number of possible explanations of the observed gender differences by controlling for background factors that capture the evolution of family and society. We find that both the higher female marital status gap and its time variability vanish for those women who are employed. Our empirical investigation is based on a dataset drawn from the 1993–2006 Bank of Italy Survey of Household Income and Wealth.     

How the unbanked cope with financial exclusion: Evidence from Pakistan

This article investigates both the coping strategies employed by low-income unbanked consumers in Pakistan and the consequences of those strategies. Qualitative data were gathered from low-income unbanked consumers through in-depth interviews. The findings suggest that unbanked consumers utilize their respective social networks and various market and personal resources to cope with financial exclusion. The utilization of social network resources to cope with financial exclusion typically enabled participants to fulfill their obligations in a positive manner and enhanced solidarity and trust among group members, whereas the use of market and personal resources tended to produce more negative consequences in the form of different types of risk. The article provides managerial implications for developing services that enhance the well-being of unbanked consumers.     

Empirical tests of the float-adjusted return model

This paper implements empirical tests of the recently proposed float-adjusted return model by using Chinese stock-market data. The results show that variation in free float can explain cross-sectional variation in asset returns by about 6.7% annually, after we control for market risk, size, and book-to-market equity. In addition, we also find that size and book-to-market equity help explain cross-sectional variations in returns even after controlling for free float.     

On the independence of assets and liabilities: Evidence from U.S. commercial banks, 1990–2005

Traditional asset–liability management techniques limit banks’ abilities to structure their balance sheets—but more recently, financial innovations have allowed banks the chance to manage interest rate risk without constraining their asset–liability choices. Using canonical correlation analysis, we examine how the relationships between asset and liability accounts at U.S. commercial banks changed between 1990 and 2005. Importantly, we show that asset–liability linkages are weaker for banks that are intensive users of risk-mitigation strategies such as interest rate swaps and adjustable loans. Perhaps surprisingly, we find that asset–liability linkages are stronger at large banks than at small banks, although these size-based differences have diminished over time, both because of increased asset–liability linkages at small banks and decreased linkages at large banks.     

The consumption based asset pricing model: A note on potential tests and applications

Breeden's demonstration that Merton's multi-beta capital asset pricing model can be collapsed into a single-beta model where betas are computed with respect to aggregate consumption is an important theoretical advance. Nonetheless, Breeden's model retains many of the empirical problems that beset Merton's earlier version. In general the consumption betas will be nonstationary, so that the state variables must be observable for the model to be estimated.     

会计准则变更与资产减值计提行为分析

本文以2007年1月1日开始实施的新会计准则为研究背景,分析资产减值准则对资产减值计提行为的影响。结果发现:减值前亏损的公司会以转回资产减值进行盈余管理来避免亏损,减值前亏损且无法以转回资产减值避免亏损的公司会以计提资产减值从事大洗澡行为,为下一年盈利做准备;新会计准则的实施并不能有效遏制上市公司的扭亏盈余管理行为,但能够遏制上市公司的大洗澡盈余管理行为。     

The revaluation of assets as a signalling device: a theoretical and an empirical analysis

In many countries, firms can choose whether or not to report a revaluation in the financial statements. An analytical model is developed to indicate conditions in which it is more likely that successful firms will choose not to revalue assets as a credible signal to potential investors. These industry settings include a high variance in performance and low equity-to-debt ratios. The empirical results for Belgium confirm that successful firms are less likely to revalue assets in those industries. However, only the revaluation of fixed tangible assets and not financial assets seems to be a credible signal. Finally, the results support the choice to revalue, but not the amount of revaluation, as a signalling device.     

A welfare analysis of the site value taxation model

This study is a short-run version of Brueckner's (long-run) analysis of graded tax systems. Brueckner assumes a long-run market equilibrium that allows for changes in the market value of the land with a zero profit condition. It is our contention that it is more realistic to solve for the short-run conditions with fixed value of land. Under these conditions, we find that if land is relatively inexpensive, the graded tax system leads to superiority in terms ofk (capital improvement per unit of land),Q (initial housing output), andCS (Consumers' Surplus). With steeper inverse demand curves and greater marginal product and initial housing output, the land tax has a more negative impact on profit with graded tax systems.     

A reexamination of corporate sell-offs of real estate assets

This article reexamines the now generally accepted notion that sell-offs of real estate assets provide positive returns for sellers but not for buyers. Following previous research, we use event study methods, but we modify the conventional market model to permit its residuals (unexpected returns) to be described by a time-varying conditional variance. We also differ from previous work in that our sample contains only sell-offs that can be precisely dated. Although we find substantial evidence of time-varying volatility in the unexpected return series, our economic results confirm the conventional viewpoint.     

Asset market linkages: Evidence from financial, commodity and real estate assets

We use a general Markov switching model to examine the relationships between returns over three different asset classes: financial assets (US stocks and Treasury bonds), commodities (oil and gold) and real estate assets (US Case-Shiller index). We confirm the existence of two distinct regimes: a “tranquil” regime with periods of economic expansion and a “crisis” regime with periods of economic decline. The tranquil regime is characterized by lower volatility and significantly positive stock returns. During these periods, there is also evidence of a flight from quality - from gold to stocks. By contrast, the crisis regime is characterized by higher volatility and sharply negative stock returns, along with evidence of contagion between stocks, oil and real estate. Furthermore, during these periods, there is strong evidence of a flight to quality - from stocks to Treasury bonds.     

如何看待资产泡沫？——访北京师范大学经济与工商管理学院院长李翀教授

2007年,一直就有关于资产泡沫的讨论,观点不一,对程度和后果的评价也不一样。北京师范大学经济与工商管理学院院长、博士生导师李种教授认为要警惕资产泡沫,防范金融风险,他的观点可以说具有代表性,对此,本刊记者专访了他。