Tests of the multiperiod two-parameter model

Although investors face multiperiod decision problems, there are conditions under which the results of the one-period two-parameter model apply period by period. In addition to the assumptions made in the development of the two-parameter model itself (a perfect capital market, investor risk aversion, and normal distributions of one-period portfolio returns), the critical assumption in a multiperiod context is that, for any t, returns on portfolio assets from t?1 to t are independent of stochastic elements of the state-of-the-world at time t that affect investor tastes for given levels of wealth to be obtained at t.One such element of the state-of-the-world is the nature of investment opportunities to be available at t. For example, if the level of expected returns on investment portfolios to be available at time t is uncertain at time t?1, and if the returns from t?1 to t on some investment assets are more strongly related to the level of expected returns at t than returns on other assets, then the former assets are better vehicles for hedging against the level of expected returns at t. This can affect the demands for assets and their prices in such a way that the simple results of the one-period two-parameter model do not hold.The empirical tests of this paper reveal no evidence of measurable relationships between the returns on portfolio assets from t?1 to t and the level of expected returns to be available at t. Indeed, in our opinion there is no reliable evidence that the level of expected returns changed during the 1953–1972 period.     

Volatility and covariation of financial assets: A high-frequency analysis

Using high frequency data for the price dynamics of equities we measure the impact that market microstructure noise has on estimates of the: (i) volatility of returns; and (ii) variance–covariance matrix of n assets. We propose a Kalman-filter-based methodology that allows us to deconstruct price series into the true efficient price and the microstructure noise. This approach allows us to employ volatility estimators that achieve very low Root Mean Squared Errors (RMSEs) compared to other estimators that have been proposed to deal with market microstructure noise at high frequencies. Furthermore, this price series decomposition allows us to estimate the variance covariance matrix of n assets in a more efficient way than the methods so far proposed in the literature. We illustrate our results by calculating how microstructure noise affects portfolio decisions and calculations of the equity beta in a CAPM setting.     

On the precautionary demand for assets

Precautionary demand models are developed for n assets under assumptions of both fixed and variable transactions costs. Applications of the models are made to all short-run cash needs portfolios as well as to the traditional banking case. Implications of the models are shown for interest rate structure and central bank reserve and secondary reserve controls. Emphasis is put on unsolved problems with the models such as integration with capital asset pricing models and problems with intraperiod timing with the hope of spurring additional research in this rather neglected area.     

A model for tax advantages of portfolios with many assets

Taxable portfolios present challenges for optimization models with even a limited number of assets. Holding many assets, however, has a distinct tax advantage over holding few assets. In this paper, we develop a model that takes an extreme view of a portfolio as a continuum of assets to gain the broadest possible advantage from holding many assets. We find the optimal strategy for trading in this portfolio in the absence of transaction costs and develop bounding approximations on the optimal value. We compare the results in a simulation study to a portfolio consisting only of a market index and show that the multi-asset portfolio’s tax advantage can lead either to significant consumption or bequest increases.     

关于农业银行不良资产经营盘活的思考

文章探索加快农业银行不良资产盘活方式方法和思路。     

On the test of the correction mechanism for mis-pricing between assets using a statistical yield spread model

This paper investigates the existence of a correction mechanism for mis-pricing between Japanese stock and bond. By this correction mechanism we mean that when deviations occur from the equilibrium levels of the expected return differentials between stock and bond — the risk premium differentials, the market will tend to correct the mis-pricing and bring the expected return differentials back to the equilibrium levels. We assume that the yield spread between the predicted earnings price ratio of stock and the yield to maturity of bond reflects the risk premium between stock and bond, and estimate the equilibrium risk premium differentials and mis-prices between stock and bond by modelling their behaviors with a statistical yield spread model (SYS). Empirical results strongly indicate the existence of the mis-pricing correction mechanism, suggesting the inefficiency of securities markets.     

On user costs of risky monetary assets

Summary. We extend the monetary-asset user-cost risk adjustment of Barnett, Liu and Jensen (1997) and their risk-adjusted Divisia monetary aggregates to the case of multiple non-monetary assets and intertemporal non-separability. Our model can generate potentially larger and more accurate CCAPM user-cost risk adjustments than those found in Barnett, Liu and Jensen (1997). We show that the risk adjustment to a monetary assets user cost can be measured easily by its beta. We show that any risky non-monetary asset can be used as the benchmark asset, if its rate of return is adjusted in accordance with our formula. These extensions could be especially useful, when own rates of return are subject to exchange rate risk, as in Barnett (2003).We thank participants at the 11^th Global Finance Annual Conference, Yuqing Huang, and an anonymous referee for helpful comments and suggestions.     

The holding behavior of Shariah financial assets within the global Islamic financial sector: A macroeconomic and firm-based model

The extant academic literature has shown the distinct differences between Islamic and conventional financial institutions along either a performance or efficiency front with an attribution to these differences to the adoption of a religio-financial framework merging the principles of economics and finance with those of Shariah. However, these empirical estimations do not entirely capture the religio-financial framework since they use performance and efficiency measures that include both conventional and Shariah transactions. We address this gap in the literature by examining the dynamics influencing the holding behavior of Shariah assets by Islamic financial institutions (IFIs). Given that the a priori hypothecation of Shariah asset holding behavior is relatively nebulous, we draw extensively from the traditional macroeconomic and managerialist literature in building our econometric model. By exploiting a unique and proprietary dataset comprising 140 Islamic financial institutions operating in 16 different countries over the time period 2011–2015, we find that economic wealth, market liquidity and the institutional board size are robust and positive linear predictors of IFI Shariah assets' holding behavior, thus providing support for the traditional macroeconomic theory of asset demand and firm-based agency theory.     

A general equilibrium model of changing risk premia: theory and tests

We derive and test a dynamic discrete-time model of asset returns.Both the risks of individual securities and equilibrium riskpremia change predictably in the model, but these changes canbe attributed to movements in the returns and prices of onlytwo well-diversified portfolios. Any other components of returnsshould be unpredictable. Using the generalized method of moments,the model is estimated and tested on portfolios of equities.We find the data supportive of the model's restrictions, evenwhen instruments designed to capture the January effect areemployed.     

Intangible assets and value relevance: Evidence from the Portuguese stock exchange

We assess the value relevance of the amounts for identifiable intangible assets and goodwill reported in the financial statements of all non-finance companies listed on the main market of the Portuguese Stock Exchange from 1998 to 2008. Additionally, we use panel data to explore the impact on value relevance of Portugal’s formal adoption of International Accounting Standards [IAS] and International Financial Reporting Standards [IFRS] in 2005. A distinctive feature of the accounting by our sample companies is that when they adopted IAS 38 and IFRS 3 in 2005, they were no longer required to recognise some intangible assets (such as start-up costs and research expenditures) and were no longer required to amortise goodwill.We find that net earnings, reported goodwill and other intangible assets are highly significantly associated with stock price. However, whereas earnings are related positively to stock prices when Portuguese Generally Accepted Accounting Principles (GAAP) were applied prior to 2005, the value relevance of earnings appears to have declined after the adoption of IAS/IFRS in 2005. Although the change to IAS/IFRS had no impact on the value relevance of identifiable intangibles as a whole, the evidence suggests that there was a positive effect on the value relevance of goodwill. When the subclasses of identifiable intangible assets are considered, we found evidence of an increase in value relevance of goodwill, other intangible assets, and research and development expenditures.     

Revaluations of fixed assets and future firm performance: Evidence from the UK

We find, as predicted, that upward revaluations of fixed assets by UK firms are significantly positively related to changes in future performance, measured by operating income and cash from operations, indicating revaluations reflect asset value changes. Current year revaluations (revaluation balances) also are significantly positively related to annual returns (prices). Relations between revaluations and future performance and prices are weaker for higher debt-to-equity ratio firms, indicating motivation affects how revaluations reflect asset value changes. The relations also are weaker for cross-listed firms and in a more volatile economic time period. Our inferences are robust to controlling for firms' acquisition activity.     

Marriage and other risky assets: A portfolio approach

We study the joint impact of gender and marital status on financial investments by testing the hypothesis that marriage represents – in a portfolio framework – a sort of safe asset and that this attribute may change over time. We show that married individuals have a higher propensity to invest in risky assets than single ones, that this marital status gap is stronger for women and that, for women only, it evolves and declines at the end of the sample period. Next we explore a number of possible explanations of the observed gender differences by controlling for background factors that capture the evolution of family and society. We find that both the higher female marital status gap and its time variability vanish for those women who are employed. Our empirical investigation is based on a dataset drawn from the 1993–2006 Bank of Italy Survey of Household Income and Wealth.     

How the unbanked cope with financial exclusion: Evidence from Pakistan

This article investigates both the coping strategies employed by low-income unbanked consumers in Pakistan and the consequences of those strategies. Qualitative data were gathered from low-income unbanked consumers through in-depth interviews. The findings suggest that unbanked consumers utilize their respective social networks and various market and personal resources to cope with financial exclusion. The utilization of social network resources to cope with financial exclusion typically enabled participants to fulfill their obligations in a positive manner and enhanced solidarity and trust among group members, whereas the use of market and personal resources tended to produce more negative consequences in the form of different types of risk. The article provides managerial implications for developing services that enhance the well-being of unbanked consumers.     

An analysis of the disposition of assets in a joint venture

The final disposition of assets at the conclusion of joint venture arrangements is important to an understanding of the motivation to pursue a joint venture and the wealth created by these collaborations. A comparison between conventional asset sales and asset sales occurring within a joint venture structure shows that the total wealth created is larger if the assets have been under shared control in a joint venture. Our results support the contention that the establishment of a joint venture creates an opportunity for a relationship-based exchange of information that can serve as a mechanism to transfer assets in the presence of a high degree of asymmetric information.     

Empirical tests of the float-adjusted return model

This paper implements empirical tests of the recently proposed float-adjusted return model by using Chinese stock-market data. The results show that variation in free float can explain cross-sectional variation in asset returns by about 6.7% annually, after we control for market risk, size, and book-to-market equity. In addition, we also find that size and book-to-market equity help explain cross-sectional variations in returns even after controlling for free float.     

On multivariate tests of the CAPM

This paper evaluates the power of multivariate tests of the Capital Asset Pricing Model. The results indicate that when employing an unspecified alternative hypothesis, the ability of the tests to distinguish between the CAPM and other pricing models is poor. An upper bound is derived for the distance the alternative distribution of the test statistic can be from the null distribution when the deviations from the CAPM are due to missing factors. This upper bound explains the low power of the tests.     

On the analysis of a multi-threshold Markovian risk model

We consider a class of Markovian risk models perturbed by a multiple threshold dividend strategy in which the insurer collects premiums at rate c _i whenever the surplus level resides in the i-th surplus layer, i=1, 2, …,n+1 where n<∞. We derive the Laplace-Stieltjes transform (LST) of the distribution of the time to ruin as well as the discounted joint density of the surplus prior to ruin and the deficit at ruin. By interpreting that the insurer, whose gross premium rate is c, pays dividends continuously at rate d _i =c?c _i whenever the surplus level resides in the i-th surplus layer, we also derive the expected discounted value of total dividend payments made prior to ruin. Our results are obtained via a recursive approach which makes use of an existing connection, linking an insurer's surplus process to an embedded fluid flow process.     

Feedback trading in retail-dominated assets: Evidence from the gold bullion coin market

Although investors' behaviour in gold investments has been widely researched, no study to date has investigated it in the gold bullion coin market, despite the fact that the latter is dominated by retail investors, who are traditionally prone to noise trading. We present seminal empirical evidence on this issue by examining feedback trading in the Krugerrand's secondary market on the Johannesburg Stock Exchange for the March 1996 – August 2019 period. We also assess whether feedback trading interacts with variables relevant to the coin's valuation and the impact of the global financial crisis over those interactions. Positive feedback trading is present for the full sample period, before and during the crisis, interacting significantly with a variety of factors related to Krugerrand's pricing, yet dissipates post crisis, likely due to enhanced foreign demand that catapulted the coin's value, rendering it less easy to trade for South African retail investors. The above imply that Krugerrand-investors should be focusing less on historical price trends and devote more attention to the coin's global demand instead.