Market wages,reservation wages,and retirement decisions

The paper is an empirical cross-section study of the retirement decisions of American white men between the ages of 58 and 67, predicated on the theoretical notion that an individual retires when his reservation wage exceeds his market wage. Reservation wages are derived from an explicit utility function in which the most critical taste parameter is assumed to vary both systematically and randomly across individuals. Market wages are derived from a standard wage equation adjusted to the special circumstances of older workers. The two equations are estimated jointly by maximum likelihood, which takes into account the potential selectivity bias inherent in the model (low-wage individuals tend to retire and cease reporting their market wage). The model is reasonably successful in predicting retirement decisions, and casts serious doubt on previous claims that the social security system induces many workers to retire earlier than they otherwise would. The normal effects of aging (on both market and reservation wages) and the incentives set up by private pension plans are estimated to be major causes of retirement.     

Unemployment,wages and pensions

Empirical evidence has shown the existence of a negative relationship between the rates of unemployment and real wages. If pensions are computed according to the wages that workers have contributed, then the unemployment rates during working life may also influence the pensions to which they are entitled. Using data from 2005 to 2012 for the Spanish social security system, we estimate that the unemployment elasticity of real pension is ?0.135. A 1% increase in unemployment rate is associated with a reduction in pension equal to 0.135%. In ‘normal times’, this value could be considered modest, but the Great Recession has increased dramatically the rate of unemployment. In 2012, the rate of unemployment in Spain had increased to 25.7% and in 2015, it had diminished to 20.9%. It is estimated that unemployment rate will not be returned to figures existing before the crisis until middle of the next decade. Moreover, the current reforms in social security systems could interact with the future effects of the current rates of unemployment and cause future pensions to be significantly lower than those estimated by individuals. The economic welfare of the future cohorts of retirees would then be significantly worsened.     

Computers,skills and wages

Computer technology is most prominently used by skilled, high-wage workers. This suggests that computer use requires skills to take full advantage of the possibilities, which are particularly present among relatively skilled workers. This article develops a simple technology adoption model showing that the decision to adopt computer technology depends on (i) the tasks to be performed, (ii) the level of skill or education and (iii) the level of wages. Applying this model to British data, it is shown that the effect of wages and particular tasks on computer adoption is larger than the effect of skills on adoption. The estimates suggest that in Britain computer use is likely to be a matter of cost efficiency and not so much of workers’ skills.     

Coordination, matching, and wages

We analyse the coordination problem in the labour market by endogenizing the matching function and the wage share. Each firm posts a wage to maximize the expected profit, anticipating how the wage affects the expected number of applicants. In equilibrium workers apply to firms with mixed strategies, which generate coordination failure and persistent unemployment. We show how the wage share, unemployment, and the welfare loss from the coordination failure depend on the market tightness and the market size. The welfare loss from the coordination failure is as high as 7.5 per cent of potential output. JEL Classification: C78, J64
Les auteurs analysent le problème de la coordination dans le marché du travail en endogénéisant la fonction 'arrimage et la part des revenus qui va aux salaires. Chaque entreprise définit le niveau de salaire qui maximise ses profits anticipés, en tenant compte de l'effet de ce niveau de salaire sur le nombre des applications qu'elle peut anticiper. De même, les travailleurs font application auprès d'une entreprise à un salaire donné en tenant compte d'une certaine relation d'équivalence entre niveau de salaire et probabilité d'obtenir l'emploi. Voilà qui engendre incoordination et chômage persistant. On montre que la part des revenus qui revient aux salaires, le niveau de chômage, et les pertes de bien-être attribuables au manque de coordination dépendent de la taille du marché et du degré de rareté de la main d'oeuvre. Les pertes de bien-être attribuables au manque de coordination correspondent à quelques 7,5 pour-cent de la production potentielle.     

Inflation,technological-knowledge bias,and wages

A detailed examination of wage data points to a wage polarization trend vis-à-vis the distribution of qualifications. Theoretically terms, this points to the need for modeling focused on the relevance of the direction of technological knowledge. To this end, we branched production into routine and non-routine tasks. In this way, the results produced positive relationships between the relative supply of skilled workers and the skill premium and between automation and wage polarization.     

Alcohol consumption,smoking and wages

The good health of an individual is a combination of uncontrollable factors that includes genetics and random events and controllable factors through the regulation of activities such as smoking and drinking. Since the work of Grossman in the 1970s, a significant relationship between health and earnings has been predicted. In this present paper the 1995 Australian National Health Survey is used to examine simultaneously the effects of drinking and smoking on wages. To model the interaction of smoking with alcohol consumption separate models are fitted for smokers and nonsmokers. These models account for potential selectivity bias resulting from the decision to smoke, and endogeneity arising from a potential causal relationship between earnings and alcohol consumption.     

Layoffs,wages and unemployment insurance

The influence of unemployment insurance on wage and layoff behavior is analyzed in the context of optimal labor contracts. Responses of contract terms to changes in economic parameters are shown to depend in general on the nature of the initial contract, the degree of workers' risk aversion, and the resolution of bargaining conflict. Layoffs are not necessarily reduced by an increase in experience rating or a reduction in the UI benefit. Product demand fluctuations tend to induce procyclical employment fluctuations but not wage fluctuation. An implication of optimal contracts with private insurance suggests a reason for government intervention in UI provision.     

Reservation wages, market wages and unemployment: Analysis of individual level panel data

Using individual level panel data, we analyse the divergence between the reservation wages of individuals who are out of work and their predicted market wages, focusing upon identifying the factors that influence the potential divergence. In addition, using propensity score matching techniques, we explore the implications of such divergences for future employment and wages. Our findings suggest that having reservation wages that are high relative to the predicted market wage influence both future employment and future wages.     

Bargaining, binding contracts, and competitive wages

In a model where many workers bargain with one firm and sign binding contracts, we show existence of a stationary subgame perfect equilibrium. If the production function satisfies decreasing returns, each worker receives a share of his marginal product (treating all other workers as employed) in equilibrium. Thus, wages are competitive. This is in contrast to Stole and Zweibel (1996, Rev. Econ. Stud. 63, 375–410), who assume that contracts are non-binding and find that the payoff of a worker is a weighted average of the inframarginal contributions. Hence, binding contracts imply lower wages than non-binding contracts.     

Firm productivity,wages, and agglomeration externalities

Using detailed census data from Morocco, this paper investigates the existence of local externalities in manufacturing. In contrast to many other studies that focus on aggregate employment growth, we examine the effect of externalities on firm-level productivity and wages. Our empirical results show that agglomeration externalities occur through both productivity and wage effects. Returns to specialization are strong and large in magnitude. In accordance with the views of Marshall, Arrow and Romer, the net effect of competition on productivity and wages tends to be negative. Large firms facing no local competition have higher revenues and pay lower wages. We also find some limited evidence in favor of the diversity argument put forth by Jacobs.     

Imperfect credibility,sticky wages,and welfare

This paper studies optimal monetary policy under imperfect credibility in a New Keynesian model with staggered price and wage setting. In our imperfect credibility framework, the central bank commits to a policy plan but occasionally reneges on past promises with a given common knowledge probability. We find that the welfare gains from increasing credibility are approximately linear on the initial credibility level. We also find that the output-inflation stabilisation trade-off is nonmonotonic as higher credibility does not always reduce output volatility. The variance decomposition shows that wage markup shocks are the main driver of economic fluctuations and that these shocks are better contained, even in relative terms, when credibility is high. We then show that the degree of credibility impacts the effect of wage flexibility on welfare. When credibility is low, monetary policy is less potent and the economy can experience a feedback loop between wage volatility and price volatility. We show, though, that once wage markup shocks are taken into account, wage flexibility is usually welfare improving.     

Accommodation,supply shocks,and sluggish real wages

This paper analyzes the policy dilemmas posed by supply shocks in a rational expectations model featuring sluggish real wages. A discrete time version of the model is used to calculate the variances for prices, wages, and output for alternative policy rules and speeds of adjustment for real wages. The conventional tradeoffs between output and price variability in the model do not always exist.     

In-school labour supply,parental transfers,and wages

In many industrialised countries, teenagers have a significant spending power, and they are important customers for specialised industries. The income of teenagers still in full time education comes from two major sources: parental pocket money and earnings from part-time jobs. Little is known about the way these sources interact, and how they depend on parental, school and family characteristics. In this paper, we analyse labour supply of 16 year old British teenagers together with the cash transfers made to them by their parents. We first develop a theoretical model, where labour supply and transfers are jointly determined. We then estimate labour supply and transfers jointly, using unique data on labour supply of teenagers, the wages they receive, and the transfers from their parents. We show how these two processes depend on each other, and how transfers and labour supply react to changes in wages. We are grateful to the Leverhulme Trust for financial support for this research, which has also benefited from support to the IFS as a Designated Research Centre of the ESRC. We thank Murali Agastya, Richard Blundell, Ian Preston, Frank Windmeijer, and two anonymous referees and the editor Bernd Fitzenberger for useful comments.     

Relative wages, labor specialization and bargaining patterns

The goal of this paper is to study the effects of centralized and decentralized bargaining patterns on wage inequality when there are two different types of labor, skilled and unskilled. We present two models where labor is specialized between firms, that is, there are two types of firms, each one employing one type of labor. We show that the revenue shares of the production factors in each type of firm and the union power are crucial determinants of the relative wage. In contrast, the relative expected wage is the same across models and bargaining patterns.     

Offshoring,wages, and employment: Theory and evidence

This paper investigates the wage and employment effects of offshoring. I use firm-level data and two events in Mexico as a natural experiment to identify the effects of a fall in the marginal cost of offshoring to Mexico. I find that domestic wages actually rise at US firms likely to take advantage of this new offshoring opportunity. At the same time, domestic wages fall at US firms unlikely to take advantage of this opportunity. Furthermore, I find no evidence of greater domestic job loss at the former compared to the latter firms. These findings are consistent with productivity effects from offshoring. To explain the mechanism, I develop a theoretical framework that combines heterogeneous firms with imperfect labor markets and rent-sharing. Firms likely to take advantage of new offshoring opportunities increase their productivity and profitability at the expense of their competitors. Through rent-sharing, this channel leads to higher domestic wages at the former firms relative to the latter. Further, there is no empirical evidence of greater domestic job loss at the firms likely to expand their offshoring compared to their competitors that are unlikely to increase their offshoring.     

Farm income,market wages,and off-farm labour supply

In most developed countries we observe an increasing share of part-time farming at the expense of full-time farmers. In the present paper, we develop a theoretical labour supply model which accounts for the specific decision problem of a farmer. The empirical analysis uses the ordered probit and a Tobit model to explain labour supply behaviour for a sample of farm households in Upper Austria. Farm size, household characteristics, as well as education significantly influences off-farm labour supply behaviour. The obtained wage elasticities for male farmers are comparable in magnitude to those obtained in labour supply studies for adult females or elderly people.

---

Zusammenfassung Nebenerwerbslandwirtschaft entwickelt sich immer mehr zur vorherrschenden Form der Erwerbstätigkeit von Landwirten. Die Erwerbsentscheidung zwischen Voll-, Zu- und Nebenerwerb wird im Rahmen eines statischen Arbeitsangebotsmodells untersucht und mit Hilfe eines Ordered-probit-bzw. eines Tobit-Ansatzes für 1.842 landwirtschaftliche Haushalte in Oberösterreich getestet. Das Arbeitsmarktverhalten von Landwirten ist gekennzeichnet durch eine hohe Lohnelastizität vergleichbar den Ergebnissen für das Erwerbsverhalten von Personen auf dem sekundären Arbeitsmarkt. Darüber hinaus läßt sich ein signifikanter Einfluß der Betriebsgröße, der Struktur des landwirtschaftlichen Haushaltes sowie der Art und des Umfangs der Ausbildung des Betriebsleiterehepaares erkennen.

---

---

We are grateful to the Agrar- und Forstrechtsabteilung der oberösterreichischen Landesregierung for giving us access to the data set, and E. Fürst for helpful assistance in data preparation. We are indebted to the participants of the first annual conference of the Austrian Association of Agricultural Economists (ÖGA) held in Vienna in October 1991 and especially to R. Winter-Ebmer, M. Hofreither, and three anonymous referees for valuable comments.     

Real wages,inflation and labour productivity in Australia

This article presents an analysis of real wages, inflation and labour productivity interrelationships using cointegration, Granger causality and, most importantly, structural change tests. Applications of tests to Australian data over the 1965 to 2007 period corroborate the presence of a structural break in 1985 and show that a 1% increase in manufacturing sector real wages led to an increase in manufacturing sector productivity of between 0.5% and 0.8%. Comparable estimates for the effect of inflation on manufacturing sector productivity have limited statistical significance. Granger causality test results suggest that real wages and inflation both Granger cause productivity in the long run.