Internal labor markets with two types of promotion and two tiers of salary: theory and evidence from China

This paper shows the optimality of a two-tier linear salary scheme in internal labor markets and identifies conditions under which discretionary promotion is better than rule-based promotion and vice versa. Our main findings are: (1) regardless of whether discretionary promotion or rule-based promotion is used, a two-tier salary scheme is optimal; (2) the salary is contingent on promotion, which is fixed before and linear after promotion; (3) if the difference in human capital among agents is small, discretionary promotion is superior; (4) if the expected replacement cost of human capital is high, discretionary promotion is superior; (5) if the risk of facing/incurring a high replacement cost of human capital is high, discretionary promotion is superior; (6) if the chance of having a high human capital agent is high, rule-based promotion is likely to be superior; and (7) if the productivity improvement from a job promotion is large, rule-based promotion is likely to be superior. We have also found empirical evidence in support of our theory on the two-tier salary scheme.     

Selective Immigration and Ethnic Economic Achievement: Japanese Americans before World War II

This article examines the determinants of Japanese immigrant economic achievement in the continental United States before World War II. Japanese immigrants to the United States were a select group in terms of their occupational background and education relative to the Japanese population as a whole because of the restrictions imposed on Japanese immigration by both the Japanese and U.S. governments. Furthermore, the selective nature of Japanese immigration contributed to the economic achievement of Japanese Americans before World War II, when their occupational position underwent a dramatic improvement. This finding differs from the standard cultural explanation of ethnic economic achievement.     

The Petroleum Industry in Indonesia before the Second World War

The present dependence on oil exports in Indonesia is not new. The oil industry also played a key role in the colonial economy. This article examines the development of the Indonesian oil industry up to the Second World War. It identifies producers and production centres and considers trends in Output and revenue, changes in the product mix and possible growth effects. Its main question concerns the possibilities and limitations of the oil sector for sustaining economic growth.     

On-the-job training and productivity: Firm-level evidence from a large developing country

We investigate the effects of on-the-job training on firm productivity and wages using a large panel data set constituted of all large and medium size manufacturing firms in China over 2003–2007. We estimate firm productivity carefully with a recent semiparametric method and combine the propensity score matching and the difference-in-differences techniques to estimate the treatment effect of training. We find consistent evidence that i) training helps boost firm productivity and wages; ii) the higher the training expenditure per capita, the higher the increase in productivity and wages; iii) firms benefit more from training than workers. These findings are not sensitive to industrial capital intensity or firm ownership structure.     

Monetization and financial development in Southeast Asia before the Second World War

Using new statistics, this article analyses financial development in Southeast Asia over the seven decades 1870–1939. The region experienced substantial, and in some instances rapid, vent-for-surplus economic growth based on a narrow range of primary commodities. But in 1939 all Southeast Asian countries still had relatively undeveloped financial infrastructures dominated by metropolitan interests, considerably reliant on informal finance, and geared towards primary commodity exports. The article suggests that a lack of opportunities and a variety of country-specific considerations were more important explanations than weak financial development for an absence of greater industrialization and agricultural modernization in Southeast Asia.     

Sustainability of public debt: evidence from Japan before the Second World War1

Japan defaulted on its public debt after the Second World War. This article addresses the question of how Japan lost its ability to sustain its public debt. We explore the sustainability of public debt in Japan before the War. We conduct statistical tests for the relationship between public debt and primary fiscal balance, and find that Japanese public debt was sustainable until 1931, and unsustainable in and after 1932. Narrative modes of analysis indicate that Japan lost its fiscal discipline because of the military's effective veto over budgetary processes and because of the absence of pressure for sound fiscal policy from international financial markets.     

The dynamics of regional labor markets and active labor market policy: Swedish evidence

This paper analyses the repercussions of region-specific shocksto labor demand. Active labor market programs have been targetedat high unemployment regions in Sweden, a fact that should influencethe regional adjustment process. Fears have been expressed thatsome of the programs may have adverse effects on adjustmentby, for instance, locking-in displaced workers in depressedregions. The empirical results indicate that Swedish regionaladjustment has been comparatively rapid; labor mobility in responseto shocks, for instance, appears to be high by European standards.On the whole, labor market programs do not seem to have impededregional adjustment substantially.     

Currency boards and Chinese banks in Malaya and the Philippines before World War II

This article examines the relationship between currency boards and the development of local Chinese deposit banking in Malaya and the Philippines before World War II. While in both countries Chinese banks filled an important gap in financial intermediation, the currency board system – an especially strict version of the classical gold standard – virtually ensured that these institutions remained small. Moreover, in the slump of the 1930s the currency board system's preclusion of a central bank and requirement to pay depositors in 100% metropolitan currency, together with the volatility of highly staple-dependent export economies, pushed Chinese banks to the verge of bankruptcy or beyond. Examination of the 1930s crisis in South-East Asia and the role of banks in it reveals more differences from than parallels with the 1990s experience.     

Price formation on clandestine markets: the case of the Paris gold market during the Second World War

Because of the scarcity of data, there are few quantitative analyses dealing with clandestine markets, despite their prime importance during wartime. This article exploits a unique database of daily prices of gold coins traded in occupied Paris in order to gain insights into the price formation on such a market. First, using data from Switzerland, we show that arbitrage took place, despite the costs and risks involved, and led to a gradual (but incomplete) convergence of gold prices. Furthermore, a study of price seasonality reveals that less strict borders controls during the weekends made the volatility of returns higher at the start of the following week. Second, on the basis of an event study, we provide evidence that laws related to black markets did not have a significant impact on the gold price, except for the most severe law passed on 8 June 1943 which greatly increased the sentences for involvement. Finally, we assess whether the so‐called coin premiums existed on this clandestine market, and show that the large price variations for one gram of fine gold contained in different coins were due to market participants’ preferences for specific gold coins.     

Racial discrimination in labor markets: A job filtering hypothesis

Summary and Conclusions The immediately preceeding analysis has examined, in a dynamic context, racial interaction in an occupationally specified employment growth process. We exhibited a demand theoretic model which states that non-whites may register employment gains in low-skilled occupations in a given area as a result of the growth of total demand for labor in low-skilled occupations relative to the available supply of white labor for such occupations. Discrimination operative at the point of job entry is reduced if a deficiency of white labor tends to raise the cost of such discrimination for profit-maximizing white employers.     

Did nordic countries recognize the gathering storm of World War II? Evidence from the bond markets

This paper analyzes and compares different ways of assessing how people perceived impending threats of war in the past. Conventional Nordic historiography of World War II claims there were few, if any, people in the Nordic countries who perceived a significantly increased threat of war between 1938 and early 1940. At the same time, historical methods face problems when it comes to capturing the often tacitly held beliefs of a large number of people in the past. In this paper, we analyze these assessments by looking at sudden shifts in sovereign debt yields and spreads in the Nordic bond markets at that time. Our results suggest that Nordic contemporaries indeed perceived significant war risk increases around the time of major war-related geopolitical events. While these findings question some—but not all—of standard Nordic World War II historiography, they also demonstrate the value of analyzing historical market prices to reassess the often tacitly held views and opinions of large groups of people in the past.     

Characteristics of labor market in Serbia - View on the labor demand on Belgrade and Banat labor markets

The labor market in Serbia is characterized by one of the highest unemployment rates of the working population （aged 15 to 64）. Also, it is notified that the unemployed level of the qualification is very low and that there isn＇t enough space in the existing formal educational system for any new introductions （such as prequalification courses, or lifelong educational concepts）. The research on the labor demand was aimed at assessing the state of the labor markets in the selected regions and at analyzing short-term demand for labor force. The analysis establishes： Which sectors of local/regional economy are being developed and are likely to require additional labor force in the next six months; which types of jobs are likely to be in demand in the aforementioned sectors; which additional knowledge and skills are needed for such occupations. The applied methodology also enabled to analyze information on vulnerable groups of unemployed, namely persons with disturbing factors in employment and the young unemployed of up to 24 years of age. In order to gather reliable data at regional level, a research was conducted on a stratified sample covering 1400 enterprises and some of the statistical labor market indicators were established indicating particularities of the labor markets in the surveyed regions -- Belgrade and Banat.     

Market integration and imperfect competition in labor and product markets

We analyze the consequences of product market integration in a simple two-country, two-sector, general-equilibrium model with imperfect competition due to economies of scale. In contrast to the existing literature we take explicit account of the labor-market structures in the integrating economies. It turns out that the specific labor-market structures are very important for how integration affects total production and product market structure in a particular economy. However, integration always gives rise to a welfare gain in both economies.I have benefitted from comments by an anonymous referee, a coeditor of this journal, and by participants in a workshop arranged by CIE in April 1992, at the University of Aarhus, and by participants at the EEA conference in Dublin 1992.