出口相似度与贸易竞争:中国与东盟的比较研究

本文从商品域和市场域两个纬度测算了中国与东盟在自由贸易区之外的第三方市场(或世界市场)上的出口相似度指数.研究表明,中国与东盟出口结构(产品结构和市场结构)趋同态势越来越显著,它反映的是双方在产业转移和传递的国际分工格局调整中相似的演化路径,这意味着中国与东盟在出口上越来越强劲的竞争具有长期性.最后对中国-东盟自由贸易区前景进行了初探.     

Business regulation,labor force participation and employment in industrial countries

Using data from 19 industrial countries for 5 years in the period 1990–2002, this paper analyzes to what extent anticompetitive business regulations, like price controls and administrative obstacles to start a new business, affect labor force participation and employment rates. According to the regression results, they appear to lower both. Corruption, which is one result of strict business regulation, is also found to lower labor force participation and employment rates. While most effects on the general population seem to be modest, the effects on the low-skilled are likely to be substantial. The results are robust to variations in specification.     

The labor force of the future.

In the decades ahead, the US labor force will reflect changes in the industrial structure, with declines in some manufacturing industries and expansion in service industries. The services sector is so diverse that the jobs within it cannot be categorized as either high wage or low wage. The service-producing sector employs 85% of professional specialty workers in the US. In general, information on compensation trends indicates that greater increases in compensation have occurred for workers in service-producing as opposed to goods-producing industries. The increase in service sector jobs has created opportunities for women to enter the labor force and, at present, 5 out of 6 women work in this sector compared to fewer than 2 out of 3 men. Productivity growth rates in the service-producing industries vary substantially and are strongly affected by the business cycle. Central to employment opportunities in the years ahead will be the effect of new technology. To date, the aggregate effect of new technology has been increased employment and higher living standards. Although retraining programs should be in place, the scenario of a huge technology-created labor surplus seems unlikely. In fact, a more likely problem is a shortage of labor resulting from earlier labor force withdrawal and demographic aging of the population. Those in the 25-54-year age group will represent a larger share of the labor force in the years ahead. In addition, blacks are expected to account for 20% of the labor force growth in the next decade. Finally, given increasing labor force participation rates among mothers, employers may have to provide more flexible work schedules, assistance with day care, and more attractive benefits packages.     

Gender specific effects of exports on work decisions in Indonesia

This paper proposes a new household panel data approach to study the gender specific effects of exports on labor force participation and household work.We construct a novel measure, the Export Exposure index, by combining information about exports and the respondent's location. The index enables us to address a key identification issue, which is to estimate the effect of exports that is unconfounded by unobserved household characteristics and macroeconomic shocks. We construct a simple model to show that if women have a comparative disadvantage in market work relative to men, and if an increase in exports increases the gender wage gap, Labor force participation of the women would be negatively related to exports. We find that in Indonesia, exports encourage women to substitute their time away from paid labor participation towards unpaid house or family work, but have no statistically significant effect on men, as predicted by our model.     

Modelling the impact of non-tariff measures on supply chains in ASEAN

This paper explores the impact of reducing non-tariff measures (NTMs) in major ASEAN countries. New econometric estimates of the impact of different types of NTMs are used in a global supply chain model to separately model the effects on intermediate products and those sold to final consumers. We also distinguish between whether the NTM cost burden is directed at exporters or importers. This paper makes important advances in modelling the heterogeneity of NTMs, offering much richer policy analysis of the impact of NTMs on supply chains in the Asia-Pacific region than has previously been possible. We illustrate the benefits, both to the major ASEAN countries and to their trading partners, from the partial liberalisation by ASEAN countries of their most trade distorting types of NTMs. Such liberalisation increases the GDP and welfare of all countries, with the effect particularly pronounced for the major ASEAN countries themselves, especially Vietnam and the Philippines. As trade in plant products and animal products is particularly affected by NTMs, these sectors show the largest expansion of trade.     

Disentangling Market Access Effects of Preferential Trading Arrangements with an Application for ASEAN Members under an ASEAN–EU FTA

The paper develops two synthetic measures at the HS‐10 level to depict effective market access for a country receiving preferential access and applies these to the market access ASEAN members would receive following the implementation of an FTA with the EU. First, the measures show that current effective market access for ASEAN EBA members is cut in half by the preferences granted by the EU to countries that compete with these countries in the EU markets. Second, the measures show that about one‐quarter of the preferential margin under the proposed FTA for EBA members would be lost as a result of preferential access granted to ASEAN GSP members. Third, disaggregated estimates of the restrictiveness of rules of origin confirm that rules are more restrictive for products with higher preferential margins and that ASEAN countries usually face tougher rules of origin in the EU because of the composition of their exports.     

Trade Policies in Southeast Asia in the Wider Asian Perspective

This paper takes stock of trade policies in Southeast Asia after the Asian crisis and in the wake of the current global economic crisis. It compares trade policies in individual Southeast Asian countries; places them in the context of regional and global economic integration; and particularly draws implications for the region from the rise of China and India. The first section looks at recent trade and FDI patterns in Southeast Asia. Then follows an overview of key trade‐policy trends, in the region overall and in individual countries. The next sections examine ASEAN countries in international trade negotiations and agreements: first in the WTO, especially in the Doha Round; then within ASEAN; and finally on cross‐regional FTAs. The paper concludes that ASEAN countries cannot rely on external tracks ‘from above’ for meaningful trade policy reform. Since the Asian crisis there has been a slowdown of reform momentum, and too much reliance on trade negotiations – especially FTAs. Rather, countries in the region have to rely on themselves –‘from below’ as it were. The engine of liberalisation and regulatory reform has to be home‐driven – as it was before the Asian crisis – with governments taking unilateral measures in response to internal and external conditions.     

转轨时期的中国劳动力参与率问题

转轨时期中国的劳动力参与率发生了很大变化,但仍存在一定的问题。这些问题的产生,有其历史的渊源,也与当前的经济发展水平、社会保障及其它各种制度等有关。转轨时期的中国劳动力参与率与经济增长的关系也表现出一定的特殊性。针对转轨时期中国劳动力参与率问题的现状、特点、产生原因及与经济增长的关系,今后应努力采取各种措施,适当降低劳动力参与率,同时统筹考虑失业、社会保障等各种问题,以求更有利于经济的长远发展。     

The ‘amelioration’ of child labor, ‘a modest proposal’

More than 317 million children between the age of 5 and 17 are working in the world. Child labor is a persistent phenomenon, even though its incidence has subsided with economic development. In this paper, we conduct a panel study of 101 countries from 1980 to 2004 where child labor is proxied by the labor force participation of children aged 10–14. We look at the relationships between child labor and investments in human capital, foreign direct investments, countries’ openness to trade, and credit market constraints. We depart from the contributions of cross-country studies by employing a fixed effects instrumental variable (FE-IV) panel data model by employing a fixed effects instrumental variable (FE-IV) panel data model to account for unobserved heterogeneity and endogeneity of child labor and individual country-specific effects. We find support for the conclusions of the above-mentioned studies: countries that trade more and have a higher stock of foreign direct investment have less child labor. More generally, we find that trade openness, investments in human capital, and financial development are associated with a reduction of child labor. Child labor persists but tailored policies on trade, investment, and financial reform can lessen child labor along with economic growth, improvements in health, and rising standards of living.     

中国—东盟共建数字丝绸之路:现状、动力与挑战 ——基于数字经济的视角

共建数字丝绸之路已经成为“一带一路”建设的重点任务,同时也是各国发展数字经济的重要抓手。中国—东盟共建数字丝绸之路对缩小东盟的数字鸿沟,提升数字经济发展水平以及实现互利共赢的包容性发展,具有重要意义。当前,在数字基础设施建设、跨境电子商务、信息通信技术及人才交流等方面,中国—东盟共建数字丝绸之路已初显成效。并且,东盟巨大的数字基础设施建设需求,庞大的数字用户基础,初具规模的数字产业以及逐步完善的政府战略部署,为中国—东盟共建数字丝绸之路提供了强大的内在驱动力。同时,东盟国家欠发达的数字经济发展水平,巨大的数字鸿沟以及薄弱的数字科研能力构成了共建数字丝绸之路的主要障碍。     

Insights on women’s labor participation in Gulf Cooperation Council countries

In analyzing the many stereotypes surrounding Arab Middle Eastern women’s employment issues, this article focuses on women’s labor participation and their career development in Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) countries. We first unpack the stereotypes by demonstrating the progress of women’s labor participation in the region. We then uncover the critical challenges of a high female unemployment rate during GCC countries’ economic transformation in the non-oil sectors. We discuss the factors contributing to low women’s labor participation and the difficulty of career advancement for women, including (1) norms and traditions; (2) job opportunities and workplace discrimination; and (3) role models, mentors, and networking. Finally, we provide recommendations on how to improve women’s labor participation by involving the public and private sectors, deploying technology, and engaging in multilevel mindset change.     

出口与劳动力市场“错配”——江苏制造业的证据

文章把异于传统劳动力市场、在中国最典型的高技能劳动过剩与低技能劳动短缺现象称为中国式劳动力市场错配,认为全球分工体系中发展中国家与发达国家以产品贸易表现的就业互换是导致发展中国家劳动力市场出现错配的重要原因。采用企业层面微观数据进行的实证分析表明,企业销售额中用于出口的比重、出口到发达国家的比重越大,企业对技能员工的需求和雇佣就越少。此实证结果可能说明,中国式劳动力市场错配是由过度参与全球分工体系导致的,过度贸易自由化导致劳动力市场困境。但这并非简单意味减少企业国际贸易、拓展国内市场就可以有效增加技能员工需求、解决高校毕业生就业难问题,促进经济发展方式由供给推动向需求拉动转变,促使企业更多以消费者需求为导向才是治本之策。     

AFTA,Income Growth,and Income Convergence in ASEAN

The rapid economic growth experienced by the core ASEAN members (comprised of Singapore, Malaysia, Thailand, the Philippines, and Indonesia) since the 70s was generally attributed to openness policies adopted by the respective governments. Despite this contention, however, there is little evidence to suggest that greater openness will eventually lead to a convergence of the member countries, particularly with the present of external shocks. The introduction of ASEAN Free Trade Area (AFTA) in 1992 was also partly an attempt to hedge the region from external shock, while possibly further promoting economic development in the region. This study, therefore, is an attempt at examining in greater detail the impact of AFTA and openness on ASEAN economic growth, in the present of external shock. The results indicate that convergence in ASEAN is conditional upon several control variables taking place, in addition to openness. Additionally, while AFTA has a positive effect on economic growth, its impact on convergence is somewhat ambiguous in the presence of external shocks.     

中国与东盟农产品贸易竞争和贸易互补实证分析

本文运用贸易相对竞争指数、出口相似性指数和贸易互补指数,测算了中国与东盟主要国家农产品的贸易竞争和互补关系。结果显示,中国与东盟在农产品贸易上以竞争为主,且出口相似程度较高;中国农产品比较优势和双方贸易互补性也逐年下降。在此基础上,分析了造成这一现象的原因并提出相应的政策建议。     

东盟宪章与中国-东盟经贸关系发展

东盟宪章是东盟成立40多年来第一份对所有成员国具有普遍法律约束力的文件,它的生效会对中国-东盟经贸关系的发展产生重大影响。本文在对东盟宪章评析的基础上,重点分析东盟宪章生效对中国-东盟经贸关系的积极作用和消极影响,提出在东盟宪章生效后我国应采取强化政治互信、增强贸易互补性、实施投资东盟战略和主动推动CAFTA发展的应对措施。     

外资进入自由化对劳动者健康的影响——来自中国健康与营养调查的经验证据

本文以中国2002年外资管制放松作为准自然实验,通过匹配中国健康与营养调查数据、中国工业企业数据和城市统计年鉴,探究中国外资进入自由化对劳动力健康的影响及其内在作用机制。研究发现外资进入自由化会改善劳动者健康水平,对疾病种类、受教育水平和性别差异的异质性分析显示,外资进入自由化对发烧、喉咙痛、咳嗽有显著的改善作用,给高学历劳动者或男性劳动者带来的好处更显著。机制检验证明,外资进入自由化一方面通过增加劳动者工作时长和加剧环境污染对中国劳动者健康状况产生了负向影响,另一方面通过提高劳动者收入使健康状况得到了显著改善,且正向作用大于负向作用。本文研究有助于客观准确地评估外资进入自由化的健康效应,同时对发展中国家引资调整具有重要的政策启示。     

中国与东盟国家运输服务贸易竞争力的比较和提升的对策建议

本文分析了中国、东盟各国运输服务贸易的现状,比较了双方的竞争力,认为中国与东盟各国运输服务贸易的竞争力都较弱,我国虽然是中国—东盟自由贸易区成员国中运输服务贸易的规模和增长幅度最大的国家,但其贸易竞争力仍不如东盟部分国家。最后,在上述分析的基础上,提出了借鉴发达国家特别是中国—东盟自由贸易区内新加坡的经验,提出从国际、国家、企业等不同层面上采取措施促进中国运输服务贸易竞争力的进一步提升。     

中国与东盟国家制造业效率比较研究

在全球产业结构经历深度调整的背景下,本文采集2005-2014年中国与东盟国家制造业企业的投入和产出数据,以企业作为决策单元,运用CCR模型测算这些国家制造业的技术效率,结果表明中国与东盟国家的制造业效率均较低,中国制造业效率相对而言低于大部分东盟国家;采用BCC模型进一步对制造业效率进行分解,结果发现纯技术效率低下是导致制造业效率不足的主因.最后,从转变发展方式、加强双方合作等方面提出促进中国与东盟国家制造业效率的相应对策.     

中国出口品技术含量测度及其差异分析——基于产品内贸易分类的跨国数据

文章按照世界银行2006年人均GNI分组标准选取了32个国家或地区为样本,在SITC Rev2的3位码分类水平下,采用杜修立、王维国对Hausmann等人修正后的方法,测算了1996-2009年各国出口品技术含量。结果发现:中国出口品技术含量与英国、德国等高收入国家差距较大,与墨西哥、阿根廷等上中等收入国家的差距明显,不敌于金砖国家中的南非,低于东盟的新加坡,在可观测样本中仅居于下中等水平。鉴于此,文章认为中国是外贸大国但绝非外贸强国。未来中国由贸易大国迈向贸易强国的过程中,在高技术领域我们会受到高收入国家的阻击;在中低技术领域,金砖国家和东盟是我们的竞争对象。     

中国—东盟水果贸易之特征及互补性分析

中国—东盟水果贸易的品种比较集中,东盟在中国水果进出口贸易中的地位举足轻重并且在品种结构上具有互补性,为了有效降低出口市场风险,需要考察水果产品出口与主要进口市场之间的互补关系,以明确国际市场上的可靠需求者。本文通过计算中国—东盟水果贸易的相关水果品种的竞争性和互补性指标,阐述了中国—东盟水果贸易的特征及其互补性。