World economic convergence: Does the estimation methodology matter?

An extant empirical literature produces evidence on economic convergence using methods that assume an underlying deterministic trend. Competing approaches that assume a stochastic trend, however, produce only limited evidence of economic convergence. In this paper we address this puzzling feature of the literature by providing a comprehensive analysis of economic convergence using three methodologies that cover all possible underlying assumptions: deterministic, stochastic, and combination trends. We also develop a method for an overall Stochastic Convergence Rate Index, that combines the outcomes of alternative stochastic tests and provides a single measure of the intensity of stochastic convergence. We consider 135 economies over the period 1980–2017. We find that economic convergence occurs at a global level through the formation of convergence clubs, and economic convergence emerges as a deterministic rather than a stochastic process. Tests that ignore deterministic trends tend to understate the evidence for convergence.     

Does a non-linear mean reverting process characterize real GDP movements?

This paper uses non-linear models to investigate non-stationarity of real GDP per capita for seven OECD countries over the period 1900–2000. Unit root tests based on non-linear models are more powerful than traditional ADF statistics in rejecting the null unit root hypothesis. Empirical results show that, contrary to what the linear ADF statistics suggest, stationarity characterizes five out of the seven countries. This finding stands at variance with other recent studies which conclude that movements in real GDP per capita can be characterized as a non-stationary process.

Who Gains from the “No War No Peace” Situation? A Critical Analysis of the Nagorno-Karabakh Conflict

Since the outbreak of the conflict in the second half of the 1980s, Nagorno-Karabakh has been represented from two perspectives of ethnic incompatibility, which justifies ethnic cleansing by matching the state borders with ethnic ones, and the Great Game narrative, which examines the conflict as part of the global power struggle in the Eurasian continent by disregarding societies and undemocratic regimes in the region. However, time has revealed that these perspectives neither appreciate the internal conditions of the conflict nor offer a way out of the current impasse. By criticising the ‘commonsense’ and ‘realness’ of these representations, this study argues that analysing who gains from the current status quo will offer solutions for a sustainable peace in the region. As long as undemocratic regimes of Azerbaijan and Armenia are satisfied with the status quo and outside powers maximise their interests, the ‘no war no peace’ situation will not be challenged. A way out is only possible by including the people, who are actually on the losing side, in the decision-making and peace-making process.     

Does government ideology affect personal happiness? A test

We investigate the impact of government ideology on left-wing as compared to conservative individuals. We find that conservative people are happier, on average. In a sample excluding the richest countries left-wing people are happier under the tenure of left-wing governments.     

Does a “survival-by-exporting” effect for SMEs exist?

The trade literature has long discussed the existence of some benefits attributed to exporting (learning-by-exporting), among others, the improvement in survival chances. This paper examines whether exporting SMEs enjoy better survival prospects than non-exporting SMEs. We investigate the determinants of survival of exporting and non-exporting SMEs and explore whether the exporting behaviour plays a significant role in explaining their probability of exit. For this purpose, we estimate discrete time proportional hazard models that account for unobserved individual heterogeneity. The dataset is a sample of Spanish manufacturing SMEs drawn from the Encuesta sobre Estrategias Empresariales (ESEE) for 1990–2002. After controlling for firm, industry and economy characteristics, we find evidence supporting the existence of a sizeable “surviving-by-exporting” effect. That is, exporting SMEs face a significantly lower probability of failure than non-exporters.     

Does don't know mean no? Analysis of 'don't know' responses in dichotomous choice contingent valuation questions

The ‘don't know’ response option in contingent valuation dichotomous choice questions is analysed using data from both willingness to pay and willingness to accept studies. An empirical analysis is conducted to determine whether respondents are stating a response similar to yes or no responses or a middle response. It is found that don't know responses are similar to no responses in the willingness to pay study. In the willingness to accept study, it is found that the ‘don't know’ responses are similar to a middle response. It is further suggested that researchers consider calculating ambivalence bounds when a don't know response is a middle response.     

Does GNP have a unit root?: A re-evaluation

Stock and Watson (1986) test the hypothesis that real per capita GNP has a unit root by using a test statistic due to Phillips (1985) which incorporates a non-parametric correction for the serial correlation induced by system and error dynamics. The version of this test that is used by Stock and Watson does not accomodate the presence of a drift, and to compensate, they detrend the series by extracting a 1.5% annual trend growth. We use a version of this class of non-parametric tests, developed by Phillips and Perron (1986), which allows for an estimated drift, and reassess the Stock and Watson findings.     

Does apprenticeship improve job opportunities? A regression discontinuity approach

In Italy the main difference between apprentices and other types of temporary workers is that apprentices must receive firm-provided training. The firm incentive in hiring apprentices consists in paying lower wages and labour taxes. Using an Italian administrative dataset containing information on the jobs started between January 2009 and June 2012, we estimate the effect of apprenticeship on the hazard function to a permanent job. Identification is based on a regression discontinuity design. We find that, for 29-year-old workers, apprenticeships are “long entrance halls” towards permanent contracts, especially within the firm where the apprenticeship is performed.

     

Does bank competition promote financial inclusion? A cross-country evidence

The idea of financial inclusion has recently been discussed as one of the key strategies to enhance economic development (World Bank 2014). We move this discussion forward by examining if bank competition is a crucial component enforcing financial inclusion, which is arguably a finance supply-side driven process. In this study, we compute the financial inclusion index built on Sarma (2008) approach to better reflect banks’ willingness and capability to provide financial services. Applying System Generalized Method of Moments to the panel of 93 countries, we find that bank competition promotes financial inclusion.     

Market power and risk of Central and Eastern European banks: Does more powerful mean safer?

As understanding the market power–risk relationship in CEE banking systems is of the utmost importance to policy-makers in these countries, we investigate whether CEE banks must have greater market power to be safer. Our results suggest that more market power reduces the fragility of banking institutions, on one hand, and that banking market concentration tends to make these banks riskier, on the other. Our findings are robust to whatever form of market power-risk relationship and whatever market-power measures we use. More precisely, financial markets perceive CEE banks with more market power as less fragile, while the latter are also better capitalised with respect to the distribution of their returns. Moreover, they are even (much) better capitalised when they hold less-diversified and less-liquid assets and when they operate within a stricter banking regulatory environment, which suggests a risk-stabilising role for diversification, liquidity and the bank regulatory environment in these countries.     

对商业贿赂说“No”

从上个世纪70年代以来，随着经济全球化的深入，联合国等国际组织以及不少发达国家政府都制定了反商业贿赂、强化企业合规经营的法规。这些法规管制力度不断加强，不仅在发达经济体而且在发展中国家也产生越来越大的影响。随着这个趋势的发展，只要参与经济全球化，那么任何国家的企业都可能被卷入反对商业贿赂强化合规经营的潮流。     

Does tourism influence economic growth? A dynamic panel data approach

On average, tourism-specialized countries grow more than others. This is not consistent with the core of modern economic growth theory that suggests that economic growth is linked to sectors with high-tech intensity and large scale. In this article, we use appropriate panel data methods to study the relationship between tourism and economic growth. In general, we show that tourism is a positive determinant of economic growth both in a broad sample of countries and in a sample of poor countries. However, contrary to previous contributions, tourism is not more relevant in small countries than in a general sample.     

Does Innovation Matter for Chinese High-Tech Exports? A Firm-Level Analysis

This paper investigates the impact of innovation on export decisions of Chinese high-tech firms during the period of 2005–2007. Using a parametric, instrumental variable approach and a non-parametric matching method, we find that firm-level innovation efforts, measured by R&D spending and new product output, play only a minor role for domestic exporters. Foreign-invested firms dominate the high-tech exports but do not rely on indigenous innovation activities. These results demonstrate that the success of Chinese high-tech exports does not result from heavy R&D expenditure and technological progress. Moreover, different types of innovation measures show different impacts on the likelihood of exporting. The impacts of innovation on exporting vary widely across industries and Chinese regions.     

Does financial liberalization decrease capital flight? A panel causality analysis

We employ a panel causality approach in order to examine whether financial liberalization affects the magnitude of capital flight, which measures unrecorded accumulation of foreign assets by the private sector. Our data from 21 emerging market economies for the period between 1980 and 2004 show no significant evidence of a causal relationship. Lagged values of capital flight, however, seem to increase its current level, indicating its self-reinforcing characteristic. Our results suggest that financial liberalization policies per se may not be helpful in reducing capital flight.     

Does sovereign debt weaken economic growth? A panel VAR analysis

We estimate panel vector autoregressions to analyze the highly disputed relationship between sovereign debt and economic growth. Using data on 20 developed countries, we find no evidence for a robust effect of debt on growth, even for higher levels of debt. We do find a significant negative reverse effect of growth on debt, which explains the negative correlation.