东亚消费风险分担的度量及潜在福利分析

文章利用1970-2004年的相关数据,度量了东亚13个经济体的消费风险分担的程度以及东亚地区在实现完全风险分担后带来的潜在福利收益.实证结果表明:东亚区域资本市场在平滑GDP冲击方面的作用非常小,对区域借贷市场虽有一定的作用,但较为有限,这说明东亚的消费风险分担程度还相当低;相比OECD国家和欧盟国家,东亚各经济体风险分担的福利收益是比较高的.     

巨灾压力下的公共财政:国际经验与启示

从保护公共财政的角度看,为了让巨灾保险充分发挥作用,如果政府有充分选择的自由,政府的最优选择应该是回避对巨灾损失承担直接责任,而是让居民和保险人共同承担.但政府可以通过为商业保险人提供再保险、为居民购买巨灾保险提供补助等方式积极承担间接责任.第二,在政府不得不承担直接责任的情况下,政府次优选择应当是位居商业保险之后.而且提供比商业保险更低的保障.总之,政府应当尽可能让商业保险在前面首先承担直接责任,并减少自身的直接经济责任.     

心理会计、公共福利保障与居民消费

消费需求不足是我国经济快速增长过程中的一个突出问题。考虑到经典理论的局限性,我们提出了基于心理会计的消费行为假说,并对假说的真实性进行了验证。研究发现,居民心理会计账户结构的变化是当前制约我国消费需求增长的根本原因,而改革进程中出现的一些制度结构的失衡是问题的根源。据此我们指出,通过提高公共福利和社会保障水平,降低经济发展过程中的不确定性进而调整居民心理会计账户的结构,与单纯增加居民收入相比能够更加有效地促进消费的增长。     

The Welfare State, Budgetary Pressure and Labour Market Shifts

Public debate about the welfare state in OECD countries has emphasized the need for reform to meet a twofold set of shocks: budgetary pressure and a labour market shift against unskilled workers. The aim of the paper is to set out a framework for examining the implications of these shocks for the optimal scale of social transfers and, in particular, the impact on different societies, distinguishing a restricted welfare state, labelled the United States and a more extensive welfare state, labelled Continental Europe.     

Labour Demand, Wage Mark-ups and Product Market Integration

Globalization makes it easier to relocate production and thus employment across countries. Therefore, it is often asserted that labour demand becomes more elastic, causing wage mark-ups to fall and thus erode the effective market power of trade unions. We explore this issue in a general equilibrium model where the elasticity of labour demand is endogenized and related to the facility by which production can be relocated across countries. Wages and employment increase unambiguously as a result of product market integration, but it is ambiguous whether wage mark-ups decrease or increase. A numerical illustration suggests that the elasticity effect – even when the wage mark-up falls – is of second order relative to the gains from trade.      

Integration, Fragmentation and the Geography of Welfare

The welfare effects of trade integration with endogenous production technology are examined in a monopolistic competition framework. In addition to explaining industry location, trade patterns and accompanying effects on local welfare, the analysis highlights the endogenous change in the costs of supervising fragmented production when economies open up to trade. By regarding fragmentation as a skill‐intensive activity, factor proportions (rather than size) strongly affect the international distribution of gains from trade. Nevertheless, albeit not generally, for a wide range of parameter values, even a skill‐poor country can participate in the gains—despite loss of industry.     

Information, trade and incomplete markets

The no-trade result of Milgrom and Stokey, J Econ Theory 26:17–27 (1982), states that if rational traders begin with an ex-ante Pareto optimal allocation then the arrival of information cannot generate trade. This paper allows traders to trade before and after the arrival of information. If there are enough securities to hedge against all payoff relevant risk, then the preinformation-arrival allocation is Pareto optimal and information arrival has no effect. This no-retrade result is the competitive analog of the no-trade result of (1982). However, information generically generates trade when markets are state-contingent incomplete.We thank seminar participants at Cambridge, Carnegie Mellon,Cornell, Essex, London, Maastricht, USC, and York and participants at the 2003 SITE, the 2003 SAET and the Fall 2002 Cornell–Penn State Macro Conference. We also thank Karl Shell and a referee for this journal for useful comments     

我国对外贸易发展:挑战、机遇与对策

本文针对我国加入世界贸易组织后,对外贸易环境总体改善的情况下出现的严峻贸易摩擦现象,提出应深入研究我国对外贸易高速增长过程中的深层矛盾和制约因素,以及如何分析和对待国际贸易保护主义这两个相关联的问题。文章同时分析了国际贸易保护主义依然存在的原因,并得出贸易保护主义阻挡不住我国的战略机遇的判断。根据以上分析,文章最后提出了政策思考和建议。     

国际贸易中企业社会责任壁垒的演进与应对

企业社会责任理论上不应成为贸易壁垒,然而在现实中常常被发达国家作为贸易保护的借口而成为变相的贸易壁垒,并且日益成为当前可持续发展理念下影响我国外贸发展最难以跨越的障碍,不可小视。了解企业在国际贸易中容易遭遇的企业社会责任壁垒的影响,提出有针对性的应对策略,尤其是政府、行业协会和企业三方联动,有效地化解企业社会责任贸易壁垒,积极促进我国对外贸易。     

城乡公共福利差距的影响因素研究

长期以来,我国财政投入明显偏向城市的政策使城乡基本公共福利存在着巨大差距。随着我国国民经济的快速发展,国家经济实力的增强,农村公共福利供给有所改善,但城乡在教育、卫生医疗、社会保障、基础公共设施和就业服务等方面存在很大差距。目前,在我国公共福利分配主要由地方财政承担的前提下,区域经济发展不平衡、各地区财力大小的不同等因素是导致我国城乡公共福利差异的主要原因。     

Economic Integration and Public Provision of Education

This paper develops a model of fiscal competition in public provision of a private good: education. In this framework, the welfare enhancing effects of public education provision are shown to be reduced by increased student mobility when, like in the EU, countries are unable to set differentiated fees to foreign students. Indeed, the threat of attraction of foreigners who free-ride on the national education system may induce suboptimal levels of public education provision when (price) discrimination is forbidden. Alternatively, countries may try to escape regulation and avoid equal treatment of foreign students. The paper provides some empirical evidence of the existence of a fiscal externality in education at the EU level.     

Entrepreneurship, Economic Risks, and Risk Insurance in the Welfare State: Results with OECD Data 1978–93

We find evidence in the OECD cross-country data to support the Knightian view that non-diversifiable economic risks shape equilibrium entrepreneurship in an occupational choice model. Differential social insurance of entrepreneurial and labor risk is found to be statistically significant and detrimental to entrepreneurship. The crowding-out effect of public production of private goods on entrepreneurship dominates the crowding-in effect of public production of public goods in the OECD data. Weak evidence is found for the proposition that the rate of entrepreneurship is related to the degree of income inequality and to the union power in the economy. The results also suggest that in countries with low GDP per capita ratio, self-employment is high.     

The Corporate State,Economic Performance,and Social Policy

We use the Survey of Consumer Finances to analyze changes in U.S. household debt between 1989 and 2013. We focus on how income and debt levels have changed, and what this means for future economic growth and living standards. Prior to the Great Recession, U.S. households had record high debt levels and record low savings rates. Highly leveraged consumption boosted economic growth. However, large debt burdens have led many families to deleverage. Our study finds that deleveraging has been insufficient. Although debt payments have fallen relative to household income, this is mainly due to low interest rates. Debt levels, especially for home mortgages, remain high by historical standards and portend continued stagnation due to lower consumer spending.     

Economic and Social Security in the Twenty-first Century, with Attention to Europe

A partly heuristic attempt is made to explore long-run policies aimed at a second-best compromise between ex ante risk-sharing efficiency and ex post productive efficiency. Wage subsidies for low-skilled workers financed by taxes on high wages are advocated, together with improved risk sharing between capital and labour, between generations and among the countries belonging to EMU. The scope of the policies advocated is limited by considerations of moral hazard, time consistency and fiscal competition. Moreover, estimates of some key economic parameters remain very imprecise. Several avenues of further research are identified.     

Fiscal Policy,Economic Integration and Unemployment

In this paper fiscal policy is examined for an open economy characterized by unemployment due to efficiency wages. We allow for capital and firm mobility in a model where the government chooses the level of wage, source-based capital and profit taxation. The taxing choices of governments are analyzed in scenarios which differ with respect to the constraints imposed on the set of available taxes and on the mobility of firms. As a general result, the welfare loss from labor market imperfections increases when tax bases become internationally mobile, which suggests an increasing relevance of domestic labor-market reforms when tax bases become global.     

国际贸易、自主研发与高技术产业生产率增长

本文采用DEA方法测算了我国省际高技术产业的生产率及其分解的技术效率和技术进步,并运用动态面板GMM方法对国际贸易、自主研发与高技术产业生产率增长的关系进行了实证检验。研究结果表明:1998-2009年间,高技术产业技术效率出现了下降趋势,但其生产率增长和技术进步显著。高技术产业快速发展的国际贸易并没有促进其生产率增长,生产率增长和技术进步主要来源于持续的自主研发,而立足于自主研发途径的技术吸收也促进了生产率增长和技术进步。因此,在研发设计新产品过程中,高技术产业应具备生产中间产品的能力,减少对中间产品进口的依赖。促进高技术产业生产率增长主要取决于研发投入,但在加大研发投入的同时,应注重通过管理和制度创新提升技术效率。     

资本主义、社会民主主义和福利国家

在资本主义市场经济发展的进程中，产生了福利国家。工业主义理论家从工业化的视角把福利国家的发展看作是工业化发展的水平的结果；社会民主主义者把福利国家看作是实现社会主义经济发展的必要步骤，并借助干凯恩斯主义的福利国家来推行其福利国家的发展战略；一些从资本主义发展的角度认识福利国家原因的理论家，则把福利国家的出现看作是资本主义市场经济发展的产物，并分析了福利国家中的阶级利益的对立。