The new EU countries and euro adoption

In the new member states of the EU which have not yet adopted the euro, previous adoption strategies have come under scrutiny. The spillovers and contagion from the global financial crisis revealed a new threat to the countries’ real convergence goal, namely considerable vulnerability to the transmission of financial instability to the real economy. This paper demonstrates the existence of extreme risks for real convergence and argues in favour of a new adoption strategy which does not announce a target date for the currency changeover and which allows for more flexible and countercyclical monetary, fiscal and wage policies.     

Technology-investing countries and stock return predictability

For 77 technology-investing countries we test whether their stock market returns are predictable. We find that exchange rate returns and U.S. stock excess returns predict stock market returns for most countries in our sample, while crude oil and inflation predict returns of less than 40% of countries. While in out-of-sample tests the evidence of predictability declines, U.S. returns still beat the constant returns model for three-quarters of countries in our sample. A portfolio of all 77 countries offers a mean-variance investor annualized profits of between 5.7% and 8.0%, and profits are maximized when return forecasts are based on U.S. returns.     

On time-varying predictability of emerging stock market returns

The two recent studies of Cajueiro and Tabak (2004b) and Hull and McGroarty (2014) investigate the predictability of emerging stock market returns based on the Hurst coefficient—a simple but powerful measure of long-range dependence. Unfortunately, the insights gained in these studies are limited because they (i) present conflicting evidence on the time-varying nature of the estimated Hurst coefficients and (ii) incorrectly equate random walk behaviour with market efficiency. In this note, we revisit the issue of time-varying predictability for a rich sample of 21 emerging markets in the 27-year period from 1988 to 2015. Extending the two aforementioned studies by various alternative fractal estimators of the Hurst coefficient, trend regressions and several robustness checks, our analysis reveals significant downward trends in the local Hurst coefficients of almost all markets. Specifically, we document vanishing predictability over time, which indicates that profitable emerging market investment strategies based on past returns may not continue their good performance in the future. Furthermore, we explicitly point out why a random walk is neither a necessary nor a sufficient condition for rationally determined security prices, and thus signs of predictability (randomness) should not be interpreted as evidence for market inefficiency (efficiency).     

The future of cooperation between the EU and ACP countries

Something over 20 years after the first Lomé Agreement came into force, most of the ACP countries are still among the poorest in the world. Why have these countries' situations not improved despite the Agreements? Why has their share of total EC imports from developing countries fallen in spite of the tariff preferences they are granted? What conclusions ought to be drawn for future cooperation between the EC and ACP countries?     

Liquidity and stock returns in emerging equity markets

Using data for 27 emerging equity markets for the period January 1992 through December 1999, we document the behavior of liquidity in emerging markets. We find that stock returns in emerging countries are positively correlated with aggregate market liquidity as measured by turnover ratio, trading value and the turnover–volatility multiple. The results hold in both cross-sectional and time-series analyses, and are quite robust even after we control for world market beta, market capitalization and price-to-book ratio. The positive correlation between stock returns and market liquidity in a time-series analysis is consistent with the findings in developed markets. However, the positive correlation in a cross-sectional analysis appears to be at odds with market microstructure theory that has been empirically supported by studies on developed markets. Our findings regarding the cross-sectional relation between stock returns and liquidity is consistent with the view that emerging equity markets have a lower degree of integration with the global economy.     

Regional trade agreements and WTO accession of CIS countries

The successor states of the Former Soviet Union which are today members of the Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS) for the most part began to liberalise their trade regimes in the early and mid-1990s. At the same time they have pursued two major long-term strategies in an attempt to foster their integration within the region and into the global trading system: First, various forms of bilateral and plurilateral regional trade agreements were formed. Secondly, with the exceptions only of Turkmenistan and Tadjikistan all CIS countries have applied for accession to the WTO. Given the plethora of bi- and plurilateral RTAs and arcane and inconsistent trade regulations, WTO membership is likely to be a sine qua non to rationalise the trade and integration strategies of the CIS countries. Michael Roberts was a trade expert in the EU TACIS project “Support to Improving Agricultural and Food Trade among the CIS countries”, Moscow, and is a consultant to the WTO. Peter Wehrheim is an associate Professor at the Institute for Economics, Agricultural Policy, and Policy Information Systems, University of Bonn, Germany. Both authors have been assigned to the project by AFC Consultants International GmbH, Bonn. AFC implemented the project in cooperation with ASA, Bonn, and Agritechno, Bruxelles Support by these firms is gratefully acknowledged. The interpretations expressed in this document are those of the authors alone and should in no way be taken to reflect the policies or opinions of the above-mentioned firms or the Commission of the EU.     

The integration of accession countries into EMU—Concerns about convergence

Accession countries willing to enter EU and EMU as soon as possible face concerns on the part of the EU about incomplete convergence. This paper looks into the progress of convergence à la Maastricht and argues that a broader measure of convergence is needed. An indicator is used to assess the convergence of accession countries in a broad sense and in comparison with a reference group of EMU member countries.     

The cyclical impact of EU cohesion policy in fast growing EU countries

Most of the newly acceded central and east European EU countries are among the main beneficiaries of EU Cohesion Policy. The main objective of this policy is to improve the long-term growth and employment prospects of the supported regions, and thereby to support convergence towards higher levels of per capita income. In the short run, however, EU Cohesion Policy may at times amplify macroeconomic challenges for supported countries. In periods of a downturn of the economy it can have a stabilising impact. During periods of unsustainably fast economic growth, however, its short-term demand effects may contribute to internal and/or external macroeconomic imbalances. Economic policymakers should thus ensure that EU Cohesion Policy enhances long-term productivity, while avoiding, in times of overheating, an increased risk of unsustainable developments as a result of the additional demand stimulus from EU Cohesion Policy. The opinions expressed in this article are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect those of the European Central Bank. The authors are grateful to Martin Bijsterbosch, Gesa Miehe-Nordmeyer, Ad van Riet, Philipp Rother and Desom Weller for their helpful comments.     

Forecasting equity returns: The role of commodity futures along the supply chain

This paper examines equity return predictability using the returns of commodity futures along the supply chain in China's financial market. We find that a considerable number of commodities exhibit significant in‐sample forecasting ability at the daily horizon, especially for supplier‐side equity returns. The macroeconomic risk premium effect, captured by the aggregate commodity prices, is an important source for this predictability. The out‐of‐sample results show that for most commodities, the predictability remains both statistically and economically significant, and the forecasting performance improves substantially during recessions or with economic constraints.     

中国A股市场股票截面收益率可预测性研究

本文针对中国A股市场的股票截面收益率的可预测性问题进行研究。在57个与股票收益率有关的特征变量基础上,利用基于3PRF算法的偏最小二乘法从中提取有效信息,构建新的综合性因子,记为AFER因子。对AFER因子的组合分析结果显示,AFER因子可以很好地预测股票截面收益率,并且在不考虑交易成本和卖空约束的前提下,AFER因子多空组合的年化夏普比率最高可以达到2.12。产生如此高的夏普比率的原因在于:AFER因子倾向于形成风险相近且线性相关系数较大的分位组合,通过两个极端组合的对冲,使得AFER因子多空组合的风险大幅下降,从而导致其拥有较高的夏普比率。     

Real and nominal convergence in the central and east European accession countries

Following their accession to the EU, which is planned for May 2004, eight central and east European countries will subsequently strive for integration into the Eurosystem. The Eurosystem underlines the need for simultaneous real and nominal convergence as a prerequisite for integration into the euro area. But some of the acceding countries argue that, at least in the short to medium term, a strengthening of nominal convergence makes real economic convergence more difficult. The following paper investigates this issue by means of an empirical study and attempts to establish to what extent real and nominal convergence are compatible.     

Tax reforms and equity in ACP countries

While the tax reforms which have been instituted as part of the Structural Adjustment Programmes in ACP countries primarily aim at simplifying tax systems and raising their efficiency, they are also intended to improve distributional equity. This article assesses the equity effects of taxation policies in two selected ACP countries and points out what scope still exists for taxation measures to improve distributional equity without impairing allocative efficiency.     

A smiling bear in the equity options market and the cross-section of stock returns

We propose a measure for the convexity of an option-implied volatility curve, IV convexity, as a forward-looking measure of risk-neutral tail-risk contribution to the perceived variance of underlying equity returns. Using equity options data for individual US-listed stocks during 2000–2013, we find that the average realized return differential between the lowest and highest IV convexity quintile portfolios exceeds 1% per month, which is both economically and statistically significant on a risk-adjusted basis. Our empirical findings indicate the contribution of informed options trading to price discovery in terms of the realization of tail-risk aversion in the stock market.     

The predictability of carbon futures volatility: New evidence from the spillovers of fossil energy futures returns

In this paper, we find new evidence for the carbon futures volatility prediction by using the spillovers of fossil energy futures returns as a powerful predictor. The in-sample results show that the spillovers have a significantly positive effect on carbon futures volatility. From the out-of-sample analysis with various loss functions, we find that fossil energy return spillovers significantly outperform the benchmark and show better forecasting performance than the competing models using dimension reduction, variable selection, and combination approaches. The predictive ability of the spillovers also holds in long-term forecasting and does not derive from other carbon-related variables. It can bring substantial economic gains in the portfolio exercise within carbon futures. Finally, we provide economic explanations on the predictive ability of the fossil energy return spillover by the channels of the carbon emission uncertainty and the investor sentiment on the warming climate.     

The cross-section of returns in frontier equity markets: Integrated or segmented pricing?

Is asset pricing segmented or integrated in frontier equity markets? To answer this question, we examine the returns on more than 4500 stocks from 22 frontier countries for the years 1997–2018. We evaluate the performance of a few major asset pricing models. We document strong value and momentum effects but find no consistent evidence regarding size, investment, and profitability premia. The recent six-factor model of Fama and French (2018) outperforms other models and best explains the cross-sectional and time-series variation in returns. Our results point to low integration of frontier equities, even after the global financial crisis. Local risk factors explain the behavior of prices much better than their global counterparts do. The low correlation of these risk factors allows augmenting the efficient frontier of an international investor.     

Country v sector effects in equity returns and the roles of geographical and firm-size coverage

Since Roll (The Journal of Finance 47(1):3–41, 1992) and Heston and Rouwenhorst (Journal of Financial Economics 36:3–27, 1994), there has been a debate whether country factors in international stock returns are typically more variable than sector factors. The addition of emerging markets (EMs) does boost the ratio of country-factor variance relative to industry-factor variance: these markets have a higher variability, but are also less related to global factors. Investigating to what extent this phenomenon can be tracked down to the impact of adding more small firms, we find the following. (1) Small firms do have higher volatility, but only after controlling for country and sector affiliation. (2) Small firms do have weaker sector affinity, as expected. (3) Small firms unexpectedly have weaker local-market sensitivities than large firms. Facts (2) and (3) mean that adding more small firms to the data base has a diversifying effect on both the sector- and country-factor variance; while the impact on sector variance is larger, the net effect turns out to be tiny. (4) Adding emerging markets has a very marked impact on the variance ratio. In fact, the addition of small stocks to the sample hardly dents the effect of adding EMs. Thus, the role of EMs cannot be reduced to just a small-firm phenomenon.     

Export product range and economic growth in the EU countries

We analyse the number of different HS8 products in the EU countries’ exports in 1995–2015. We review what share, or coverage, of the total possible number of these products the countries have exported each year. The EU15 countries have typically witnessed a slow rise in this coverage rate, that is, a widening of their extensive margins. The exception is Finland where the share has declined considerably. On the other hand, Ireland, Greece, Portugal and the new member countries have seen a dramatic increase in their export product coverage. We analyse how the development in the coverage rate and, as a comparison, the diversification of exports as measured by the Herfindahl–Hirschman index are associated with GDP per capita growth. We find that changes in the former measure are positively associated with economic growth after we have controlled for GDP per capita catching‐up as well as investment and export activity. We also find that smaller EU economies do not specialise more than large ones in their exports as could perhaps be assumed.