Sovereign default, interest rates and political uncertainty in emerging markets

A large body of the empirical literature shows that high turnover rates/length of tenure of policymakers and the degree of conflict within a country affects sovereign spreads, debt and default rates. We help to rationalize such claims by including these political features in a dynamic stochastic small open economy model of sovereign debt and default. In this way we offer a complementary approach to the econometric analyses in the literature. Consistent with the data, the quantitative analysis shows that politically unstable and more polarized economies experience higher default rates and larger level and volatility of sovereign interest rate spreads.     

Fair trading in markets for credence goods

Consumer concern about food quality issues has been increasing in Europe recently as a result of the series of food safety crises and the on-going debate on genetically engineered food products. The characteristics of a good which interest consumers in this connection cannot be directly ascertained by them, however. Credible mechanisms are required for monitoring these “credence characteristics” and signalling the results to consumers. The public authorities have an important role to play in this regard.     

Response strategies of local firms to import competition in emerging markets

Using a sample of 3808 firms from 1996 to 2007, the impact of three strategic options that can be implemented by local Asian (i.e., Indian) firms facing increased import competition in their domestic market is analyzed. On average, firms with greater investments in intangible resources and tighter product focus do better, while firms with greater international sales perform poorly compared to their peers. However, in industries characterized by high import competition, firms with international operations and product focus tend to have higher performance, while firms with intangible resources perform poorly.     

Managers, investors, and crises: mutual fund strategies in emerging markets

We examine the trading strategies of mutual funds in emerging markets. We develop a method for disentangling the behavior of fund managers from that of underlying investors. For both managers and investors, we strongly reject the null hypothesis of no momentum trading: mutual funds systematically sell losers and buy winners. Selling current losers and buying current winners is stronger during crises, and equally strong for managers and investors. Selling past losers and buying past winners is stronger for managers. Managers and investors also practice contagion trading—they sell (buy) assets from one country when asset prices fall (rise) in another.     

Differentiation strategies in emerging markets: The case of Latin American agribusinesses

This study furthers the research agenda on Porter's generic strategies by exploring their implementation by firms that suffer from under representation in the literature. It focuses on agribusinesses based in emerging markets that specialize in high value added products. Relying on information collected through interviews, and a survey with 66 agribusinesses based in eight countries of Latin America, it examines the factors that distinguish firms implementing a differentiation strategy (DS). The findings provide interesting insights for scholars and practitioners alike, illustrating the strategic initiatives that DS firms use to ensure they command higher than average prices.     

Mapping the trading behavior of the middle class in emerging markets: Evidence from the Istanbul Stock Exchange

Predicted to grow above 4.9 billion by 2030, with an overall spending capacity of $56 trillion, the rise of the middle class in emerging markets has attracted global practitioner and academic attention. How this new wealth will be invested is a central question; yet our understanding still remains fragmented. Drawing on the literatures of international business, behavioral economics and finance and using high-frequency stock market data, we examine and map the trading behavior of the middle class in Turkey, one of the fastest rising economic powers of the East. We find that middle class traders exhibit discernible differences to professionals, with respect to risk attitudes and stock preferences (e.g. prefer lower-risk, smaller-size and ‘value’ stocks). In addition, while they typically hold small portfolios and tend to realize lower gains than professionals, their role has become considerably influential to the direction of the entire market.     

Facing Risks and Investing in Emerging Markets

The art of investing is evolving into the science of investing. As new generations of increasingly scientific investment mangers come to the task, they wi11 rely more on analysis, process and structure than on intuition, advice and whim. This does not mean heroic investment insights are a thing of the past. It means that investors will increasingly capture and apply those insights in a     

Intercultural competencies for emerging markets: A contextualized approach

Emerging markets are increasingly important to researchers and managers focused on helping multinational enterprises to thrive in often attractive yet unfamiliar environments. However, empirical knowledge about emerging markets is relatively under-developed when it comes to managing international talent, particularly with regard to the specific demands placed on human capital in an emerging market context. We review the existing literature about macro-level trends and micro-level characteristics of emerging markets, and we conduct cluster analyses using secondary data in order to identify the individual intercultural competencies required for managers to succeed in this environment. We propose three context-specific competencies that are especially salient in response to the complexities of emerging markets – recognizing perspectives, managing relationships, and navigating uncertainty. Finally, we discuss organizational implications and future research directions for those seeking a more nuanced view of talent management via contextualization.     

Detecting shift-contagion in currency and bond markets

This paper investigates why financial market crises often increase the interdependence between assets associated with different countries. Two sources of increased co-movement in asset returns are considered: (i) larger common shocks operating through standard cross-country linkages and (ii) changes in the structural transmission of shocks across countries, referred to as “shift-contagion”. To examine this issue, we develop a method for detecting shift-contagion with three notable features. First, parameters corresponding to the structural transmission of shocks across countries are identified in the presence of changing volatility regimes for the shocks. Second, the timing of changes in volatility is endogenously estimated instead of being exogenously assigned. Third, the countries in which crises originate need not be known or even included in the analysis. We apply the method to currency returns for developed countries and bond returns for emerging-market countries.     

Returns on ADRs and arbitrage in emerging markets

In this paper we compare the distributions of ADR returns and the returns of the locally traded shares between Chile and Argentina. This comparison is interesting because both countries are emerging economies with a similar free market orientation and the trading hours in both countries virtually coincide with the trading hours in New York. Argentina and Chile differ, however, in two important aspects: During our sample period: (1) The Argentinean market was completely under a fixed-exchange rate system, while Chile maintained a flexible exchange rate regime; and (2) Argentina did not impose any restrictions on foreign investments, while Chile did. We find that the return distributions of the Chilean ADRs are significantly different from the distributions of the returns on the respective underlying Chilean shares. While the mean returns are the same, the return's S.D. are significantly different. In contrast, the hypothesis that the distributions of the returns on the Argentinean ADRs and the returns on their respective underlying shares are the same cannot be rejected. We then use a threshold model to estimate the transaction costs of trading the ADRs and the locally traded shares. We find that the transaction costs that must be added to the returns spread before arbitrage is possible were between 100 and 200 basis points for Chilean ADRs. It was between 66 and 165 basis points for the Argentinean ADRs. The daily return spread reversion caused by arbitrage activities was estimated to be approximately 30% for Chilean ADRs and 40% for Argentinean ADRs. Finally, we cannot reject the hypothesis that low liquidity was a major factor in the cost difference between the two countries.     

Geographical focus in emerging markets and hedge fund performance

Emerging market hedge funds are an asset class which does not seem to outperform the market benchmarks. We hypothesize that the poor aggregate performance may be due to lack of focus of these funds. Our results suggest that a portfolio of emerging market hedge funds, which have geographical focuses, outperform their underlying stock markets. Hedge funds which focus on Eastern Europe appear to have the best outperformance. However, we also find that the performance of all emerging market hedge funds has reduced after the start of the 2008 Crisis.     

Sovereign debt and corporate borrowing costs in emerging markets

We document that the corporate sector faces higher borrowing costs when the external debt of the public sector is higher. By contrast, no significant relationship is found between domestic public debt and corporate borrowing costs. An increase in sovereign debt by one standard deviation from its sample mean is associated with 9% higher loan yield spreads. The correlation is considerably higher in countries with weak creditor rights and past sovereign default episodes. Overall, these findings suggest substantial adverse linkages between public external debt and private financing costs.     

Evaluating service quality and consumer satisfaction in emerging markets

Developing economies offer tremendous potential for future growth and organizations appreciating these consumers’ requirements stand to reap considerable returns. However, compared with more developed economies published consumer studies are few. In particular, there is a dearth of service quality research and hardly any from Africa. Furthermore, the little available research tends to apply Western methodologies, which may not be entirely appropriate. This research investigates East African consumer perceptions of retail banking using an approach that takes account of the research context. Qualitative research was undertaken to define the relevant service attributes. Performance along these was then investigated through a survey with over 2000 respondents. Principal component analysis identifies 13 core service dimensions and multinomial logistic regression reveals which are the key drivers of customer satisfaction. Comparison of the results with studies from other regions confirms that established standardized research instruments are likely to miss or under‐represent service attributes important in developing countries.     

Organizational entrainment and international new ventures from emerging markets

Organizational entrainment captures the temporal fit in the activity cycles between exchange partners. We argue that organizational entrainment between international new ventures (INVs) and their most important international customers positively moderates the relationship between the degree, scope, and speed of internationalization and performance of INVs. We test our hypotheses on INVs from China, India and South Africa. The results support the contingent role of entrainment for degree and scope of internationalization but not for speed. Findings suggest that, when INVs attain temporal fit with their most important international customers, they can implement their strategic goals in international markets more effectively.     

The soybean crush spread: Empirical evidence and trading strategies

This article finds that deviations of the soybean crush spread from its long-run equilibrium were transitory during the sample period from January 1985 through February 1995. This equilibrium is characterized by strong seasonality and by a persistent uptrend in soymeal and soyoil prices relative to soybean prices. A tendency also exists for the crush spread to revert toward its most recent 5-day average. Simulations demonstrate that trading rules based on these results would have been profitable. © 1999 John Wiley & Sons, Inc. Jrl Fut Mark 19: 271–289, 1999     

Corporate governance and MNE strategies in emerging economies

We explore factors of convergence and divergence in corporate governance of emerging and developed market economies, focussing on the role of firm internationalisation. In particular, foreign investments by emerging economy firms led to upgrade of their governance capabilities. These firms also became advocates for home-country policy reforms that mandated the development of similar capabilities for local firms. We present a broad overview of the literature and propose an approach that considers the evolution of corporate governance, both at the national level and the firm level, with MNEs from both emerging market economies and developed economies as active actors in this process.