The future of the dollar–euro exchange rate

Monetary unification in Europe is expected to produce a major new international currency, which may compete with the U.S. dollar as the currency of choice in foreign exchange transactions, financial asset markets and central bank reserves. This study considers two important issues regarding the euro: its global role as medium of exchange, unit of account, and store of value and its position relative to the U.S. dollar. Among the main considerations are differences in cyclical behavior, inflation differentials, trade patterns and capital flows, and risk-return assessments. External diversification of private portfolios and of central banks’ reserve holdings will play a key role in determining the euro’s exchange rate. Overall, despite its rough start, we argue that the euro may emerge as a challenger to the U.S. dollar.     

Forecasting exchange rate volatility using high-frequency data: Is the euro different?

We assess the performances of alternative procedures for forecasting the daily volatility of the euro’s bilateral exchange rates using 15 min data. We use realized volatility and traditional time series volatility models. Our results indicate that using high-frequency data and considering their long memory dimension enhances the performance of volatility forecasts significantly. We find that the intraday FIGARCH model and the ARFIMA model outperform other traditional models for all exchange rate series.     

Does financial integration affect real exchange rate volatility and cross-country equity market returns correlation?

Existing empirical studies show that financial integration affects the behavior of average excess returns, cross-country equity market returns (EMR) correlations and real exchange rate (RER) volatility. We employ a recently developed two-country model with recursive preferences, frictionless and complete markets and highly correlated long-run innovations to examine whether full financial integration (i.e. full risk-sharing) affects the US-Canada EMR correlation and the US RER volatility, consistently with existing empirical findings. First, full risk-sharing gives rise to a relatively high RER volatility. Second, it induces very strong positive cross-country EMR correlations. Both quantities are higher than those observed in the US-Canada asset pricing data, and increase as the risk-sharing incentive increases. In contrast, “international consumption quantities” are weakly sensitive to changes in the level of aversion to consumption and utility risk.     

Job creation and labour market flexibility: miracle or mirage on the Polish labour market?

Poland's post‐communist economic performance has been generally good. However, for many years, its growth was jobless; it exhibited very high unemployment rates and made little progress towards the targets set for EU Member States and accession countries. Unexpectedly, in 2003, the country's labour market began to exhibit a new dynamism, with employment growing strongly and unemployment tumbling. This apparent improvement coincided with a liberalisation of its Labour Code. Unfortunately, the measures introduced to increase flexibility are at variance with the EU's Fixed‐term Work Directive and will likely need to be modified, which may conceivably reverse the recent developments that form the focus of this article.     

The influence of international oil price fluctuation on the exchange rate of countries along the “Belt and Road”

In recent years, the international crude oil price has become increasingly volatile. It influences the exchange rate changes of relevant countries through economic growth, price level, international balance of payments, and other channels. Such exchange rate fluctuations have caused certain risks for the development of China’s “Belt and Road” Initiative. This article analyzes the impact of oil price changes on the exchange rates of countries. Because the fluctuation of oil prices and exchange rates has shown the characteristics of multiple time scales, this study used the empirical mode decomposition (EMD) method to obtain the long-cycle and short-cycle sequences of oil prices and the exchange rates of various countries, then analyzed the impact of oil price changes on exchange rates under different time scales. The results showed that oil price fluctuations have an impact on the exchange rate changes of countries along the “Belt and Road” under different time scales. However, this effect is asymmetric between oil-producing countries and non-oil-producing countries, and the transmission path of oil prices to exchange rates varies from cycle to cycle.     

Cross-section dependence and the monetary exchange rate model – A panel analysis

This paper tackles the issue of cross-section dependence for the monetary exchange rate model in the presence of unobserved common factors using panel data from 1973 until 2007 for 19 OECD countries. Applying a principal component analysis we distinguish between common factors and idiosyncratic components and determine whether non-stationarity stems from international or national stochastic trends. We find evidence that the common factors are I(1) while the idiosyncratic components are I(0). This finding indicates that cross-member cointegration exists and non-stationarity in exchange rates and fundamentals is mainly driven by common international trends. We find evidence that the common factors of the exchange rates and fundamentals are cointegrated. In addition, the estimated long-run coefficients of this common international relationship are in line with the suggestions of the monetary model with respect to income and money.     

The effects of labor supply shocks on labor market outcomes: Evidence from the Israeli–Palestinian conflict

Since September 2000, as a result of mobility restrictions, the supply of Palestinian workers competing for local jobs in the West Bank has increased by about fifty percent. This paper takes advantage of this unique natural experiment to study the effects of labor supply shocks on labor market outcomes. Using quarterly information on wages and employment in each city in the West Bank, the paper analyzes the short-run adjustment of labor markets to a large inflow of workers separately from the effects of political instability. The results suggest that low-skilled wages are adversely affected by an increase in the supply of low- and high-skilled workers, while high-skilled wages are only weakly negatively related to an increase in their own supply. This is consistent with a scenario in which high-skilled workers compete for low-skilled jobs, pushing the low-skilled into unemployment. This latter hypothesis is confirmed by analyzing the effects of changes in labor supply on unemployment.     

Assessing the impact of liberalisation policies on the Greek labour market: an insider–experts' view from the perspective of the varieties of liberalisation

During the recent Great Recession (2008–2018), Greece has become the prototype example of the implementation of austerity policies in Europe. Contrary to public discourse, these austerity policies were complemented by substantial labour market reforms that promoted employment and wage flexibility. This article aims to present a theory-driven understanding of the implementation and the effects of these reforms. For this purpose, we employ a qualitative study consisting of semi-structured interviews with 50 labour market experts—government officials and labour lawyers, academics, labour union representatives and employer association representatives. Using Thelen's framework on the Varieties of Liberalization, we conclude that, contrary to the initial aims of the reforms, Greece followed a trajectory of direct deregulation, reducing considerably the level of both coordination between employers and workers, and coverage of employment protection. The interviews show that the dismantling of collective bargaining system was the most decisive move in this path.     

Do terror attacks affect the dollar-pound exchange rate? A nonparametric causality-in-quantiles analysis

While much significant research has been done to study the effects of terror attacks on stock markets, less is known about the response of exchange rates to terror attacks. We suggest a non-parametric causality-in-quantiles test to study whether (relative) terror attacks affect exchange-rate returns and volatility. Using data on the dollar-pound exchange rate to illustrate the test, we show that terror attacks mainly affect the lower and upper quantiles of the conditional distribution of exchange-rate returns, while misspecified (due to nonlinearity and structural breaks) linear Granger causality test show no evidence of predictability. Terror attacks also affect almost all quantiles of the conditional distribution of exchange-rate volatility (except the extreme upper-end), with the significance of the effect being particularly strong for the lower quantiles. The importance of terror attacks is shown to hold also under an alternative measure of volatility and for an important emerging-market exchange rate as well.     

Sources of asymmetric shocks: The exchange rate or other culprits?

We analyze and quantify the determinants of medium-term real exchange rate (RER) changes. First, we discuss the sources of asymmetric shocks causing exchange rate variability and the role of the RER as a shock absorber or generator. Secondly, we use data for 21 advanced and late transition economies to gauge the extent to which medium-term bilateral real exchange rate variability can be explained by various fundamental factors. Using Bayesian model averaging, we find that out of 22 factors under consideration, four types of dissimilarities within a given pair of economies are likely to be included in the true model: dissimilarities as regards (i) financial development, (ii) per capita income growth, (iii) central bank autonomy, and (iv) the structure of the economy. A regression based on these four factors indicates that they explain about 96 percent of the sample average level of three year RER variability. In the logic of our approach, the remaining part of the total variability represents an upper estimate of the influence of the foreign exchange market itself. For our sample, the contribution of the real exchange rate itself to asymmetric shocks therefore appears to be very low.     

Leader–member exchange as a moderator of the relationship between employee–organization exchange and affective commitment

While there is some evidence on the outcomes of employee–organization exchange relationships and leader–member exchange (LMX) relationships, less is known about their combined role as predictors of employee outcomes. Relying on a recent conceptualization of social leader–member exchange (SLMX) and economic leader–member exchange (ELMX) as two separate dimensions of LMX, the present study explored whether SLMX and ELMX moderate the associations between organizational social and economic exchange and affective commitment. The main finding was that the association between organizational economic exchange and affective commitment is attenuated by SLMX. In addition, a positive association between intrinsic motivation and affective commitment was also unveiled, suggesting that affective commitment is not only determined by the prosocial motivation emanating from social exchange relationships, but also from the intrinsic motivation inherent in the work itself.     

Impact of prosocial motivation on organizational citizenship behavior: the mediating role of ethical leadership and leader–member exchange

Quality & Quantity - This study empirically examined how ethical leadership and leader-member exchange mediates the relationship between prosocial motivation and organizational citizenship...     

The risk–return relation in the corporate loan market

This paper analyzes the hypothesis that returns play a risk-compensating role in the market for corporate revolving lines of credit. Specifically, we test whether borrower risk and the expected return on these debt instruments are positively related. Our main findings support this prediction, in contrast to the only previous work that examined this problem two decades ago. Nevertheless, we find evidence of mispricing regarding the risk of deteriorating firms using their facilities more intensively and during the subprime crisis.     

Monetary/asset models of exchange rate determination: How well have they performed in the 1980's?

This study compares the performance of various structural exchange rate models based on the methodology developed by Meese and Rogoff (1983 a,b, 1985). means of improving forecast performance.     

The Amsterdam rent index: The housing market and the economy, 1550–1850

The paper investigates the long run historic development of the Amsterdam rental housing market (1550–1850). Using rent data on a large cross section of residential properties in Amsterdam we are able to develop an annual constant-quality rent index for the entire time period. Whereas nominal rents nearly tripled over the considered sample period, average Amsterdam house rents, in real terms, had approximately the same level in 1850 as they exhibited in 1550. Otherwise stated, nominal rents and goods prices rose at the same pace. Over these 301 years, the real index moves between a minimum level of 45.6 and a maximum of 162.4. As concerns the relation between the housing market and the real economy, we find empirical evidence that fluctuations in rents and fluctuations in proxies of business cycle activity comove, both in nominal and in real terms.     

Linking work–family conflict to job attitudes: the mediating role of social exchange relationships

This study uses social exchange theory to develop a model of the processes linking work–family conflict to job attitudes. This model was tested on a sample of 236 employees in Taiwan's high-technology industry. The regression results revealed that perceived organizational support and leader–member exchange fully mediated the influence of work–family conflict on intentions to quit and affective organizational commitment, and partially mediated work–family conflict's influence on job satisfaction. The implications are discussed in this article.     

Wage inequality and the labor market impact of economic transformation: Croatia, 1970–2008

In this paper, we examine wage inequality and wage differentials in Croatia from 1970 to 2008 using two long aggregate time series on the distribution of income. We focus especially on changing income inequality related to educational and vocational attainment, changing income inequality within those groups, and how these two components of inequality were affected by the economic transformation from socialism to capitalism. We find that income inequality between groups rose moderately post-transformation, while overall inequality increased more sharply. This finding is consistent with a growing importance of individual rather than group productivity in labor market compensation, a change broadly consistent with the economic transformation of the Croatian labor market.     

The moderating effects of traditionality–modernity on the effects of internal labor market beliefs on employee affective commitment and their turnover intention

This study addresses a possible moderating effect of cultural values on the relationship between employee beliefs in human resource management (HRM) practices and employee outcomes. Although employee belief regarding internal labor market (ILM) operation within their firms could be positively related to employee commitment and negatively related to their turnover intention, employee cultural values may act as a contextual variable that strengthens or weakens such relationships. We test the moderating effects of two cultural values, traditionality and modernity in the context of Kenya where the blend of these cultural values is an emerging reality, given the rapid pace of urbanization in recent years coupled with effects of globalization and the digital era. Our study indeed found support for the moderating effects of these cultural values. The association between ILM beliefs and employee affective commitment was found to be greater for employees with more traditional values. In contrast, the relationship was weaker for employees with more modern cultural values. These moderating patterns were also found in the relationship between ILM beliefs and turnover intention. Implications for management research, theory, and practice are discussed.     

Policy impacts on the propensity to travel by HSR in the Amsterdam – London market

This paper investigates the impacts of possible measures to enhance HSR market share in the London-Amsterdam market. To this aim, we adopted a two-level aggregate nested logit model able to jointly model trip distribution and trip generation, thus taking into account that the tested policies may increase or decrease the overall demand. The model was applied to an extensive dataset about passenger flows traveling between London airports and HSR station and Amsterdam in the period 2015–2019. The results show that both the reduction of HSR fares and the application of an air ticket tax, albeit with different impacts in terms of stimulus or reduction effect on overall demand, are ineffective in increasing HSR market share, if not adequately supported by improving HSR service. Increasing HSR frequency and reducing HSR travel times constitute the best opportunities to increase HSR ridership by stimulating a higher substitution effect than modifications in relative fares. Lastly, the recent queueing at airports, following staff shortages and strikes, significantly lower air transport demand and potentially has a substantial upward effect on HSR market share.     

Fostering societal impact and job satisfaction: the role of performance management and leader–member exchange

ABSTRACT

Performance management (PM) can alienate employees from experiencing societal impact. This is problematic since societal impact influences employees’ job satisfaction. To avoid such unintended effects, we investigate two conditions under which PM could instead benefit the societal impact and job satisfaction of employees: consistency and leader-member exchange. Results show consistent PM fosters job satisfaction, mediated by societal impact and moderated by leader–member exchange. Public organizations should streamline expectations communicated through PM and constructive leader relationships could reinforce this process. By examining the conditions under which PM can avoid unintended effects on employees, we add to the debate on PM effectiveness.