Monetary union: A welfare based approach

This article attempts to shed light on the consequences of the transition to EMU for individual welfare following specific shocks. To this end, we develop a two country intertemporal general equilibrium model that extends the Obstfeld and Rogoff (Journal of Political Economy 103 (3) (1995) 624) specification to nominal rigidities through price adjustment costs and pricing-to-market behavior.We show that, when facing a positive asymmetric permanent shock to either technology or government expenditures occurring in one country, implementing a monetary union is beneficial to the households living in this economy. Conversely, it is detrimental to foreigners. Further, a sensitivity analysis shows that if the gains/losses to implementing monetary union are qualitatively robust when facing changes in the degree of nominal rigidities and the elasticity of substitution between foreign and domestic goods, they are quite sensitive to the degree of pricing-to-market in the economy.     

Pricing-to-market in Swedish Exports

Fluctuations in prices of Swedish exports to five countries are investigated in this paper. We test whether there are systematic differences between prices to different markets and whether relative export prices are affected by macroeconomic conditions in destination countries. The test results indicate that deviations from no pricing-to-market and neutrality of money are quite common and persistent. Over a sample of 15 years, long-run monetary neutrality is rejected in almost half of the cases. In most cases, the degree of pricing-to-market is also affected by aggregate demand in export markets.     

Export Price Discrimination in Europe and Exchange Rates

The paper studies pricing-to-market behavior on a wide range of disaggregated European Union exports to OECD countries. The sample allows better identification of products for which such behavior is pervasive. The results suggest that the degree of markup adjustment in response to exchange rate changes is similar across destination markets. The evidence of pricing-to-market across source countries ranges from 40% (Netherlands) to 63% (Germany) of the products in the sample, except for the United Kingdom, where there is remarkably little evidence of it. However, formal comparisons across source countries by product do not usually reveal differences in behavior.     

A 'pricing-to-market' model with unobserved variables: explaining New Zealand's import prices

A model of ‘pricing-to-market’ (PTM) behaviour in import prices is developed for a small open economy to allow for two measurement problems: (i) that neither the marginal production cost of imported goods nor their corresponding (foreign-currency) export price are observable by the econometrician; (ii) that PTM behaviour, if it exists, alters the relationship between foreign countries' export price indices for total exports and the true, unobservable price index. The analysis shows that variations in the measured markup on import prices depends on the degree to which domestic demand is synchronized with world demand, whether bilateral exchange rate movements are due to domestic or foreign factors, and on the degree to which PTM behaviour differs from such behaviour in other countries. Equations estimated for the price of New Zealand (NZ) imports from the US strongly supports the model, and finds that the degree of PTM by US exporters in response to price and exchange rate movements is substantially greater in NZ than the average for other countries. However, the degree of PTM in NZ in response to excess demand is similar to that of other countries.     

Trade liberalisation and exchange rate pass-through: the case of textiles and wearing apparels

Studies on the relationship between exchange rates and traded goods prices typically find evidence of incomplete pass-through, usually explained by pricing-to-market behaviour. Although economic theory predicts that incomplete pass-through may also be linked to the presence of non-tariff barriers to trade, variables reflecting such a link is rarely included in empirical models. In this paper, we estimate a pricing-to-market model for Norwegian import prices on textiles and wearing apparels, controlling for non-tariff barriers to trade and shift in imports from high- to low-cost countries. We apply the cointegrated VAR approach and develop measures of foreign prices based on superlative price indices (including the Törnqvist and Fischer price indices) and a data calibration method necessary to approximate relative price levels across countries. Our measures of foreign prices thereby account for inflationary differences and varying import shares and price level differences (known as the China effect) among trading partners. We show that these measures of foreign prices, unlike standard measures used in the pricing-to-market literature, are likely to produce unbiased estimates of pass-through. Once the China effect is controlled for, we find little evidence that pass-through has changed alongside trade liberalisation.     

Pricing to market of Italian exporting firms

This article investigates the pricing-to-market (PTM) behaviour of Italian exporting firms, using quarterly survey data by sector and by region over the period 1999q1 to 2005q2. A partial equilibrium imperfect competition model provides the structure according to which the orthogonality of structural shocks is derived. Impulse response analysis shows non-negligible reactions of export-domestic price margins to unanticipated changes in cost competitiveness and in foreign and domestic demand levels, even though these effects appear to be of a transitory nature. For the period 1999 to 2001, a typical PTM behaviour emerges, while, during the most recent years favourable foreign demand conditions allowed firms to increase their export-domestic price margins in face of a strong deterioration of their cost competitiveness. Macroeconomic implications of the observed PTM behaviour are also discussed.     

Why Have Corporate Profits Declined? An International Comparison

The paper compares the trends and determinants of US profits with those of Japan, Germany, and Canada in a model of pricing-to-market in the export and domestic markets. It is found that during the 1970s increasing unit production costs lowered profits in all countries. After 1980, cost factors still affected profits except in the USA where lower real import prices depressed profits. It is shown that a currency appreciation hurts US profits three times more than Japanese profits via the imported inputs channel. This finding may explain why an overvalued currency is sustainable for a longer period in Japan than in the USA.     

Invoice currency choice,nonlinearities and exchange rate pass-through

ABSTRACT

Estimating time-varying thresholds as a proxy for exporter’s predicted exchange rates, this study proposes a new approach to analyse possible asymmetric behaviour of exchange rate pass-through (ERPT) or pricing-to-market (PTM) in Japanese exports between yen appreciation and depreciation periods. Constructing the industry-specific nominal effective exchange rate on a contract (invoice) currency basis, we perform the multivariate threshold near-vector autoregressive (near-MTVAR) estimation and reveal a strong tendency of symmetric ERPT in the short-run, between yen appreciation and depreciation periods. From the 2000s, however, Japanese machinery exporters increased the degree of PTM even in the long-run, while other industries raised the degree of long-run ERPT, reflecting the difference of product differentiation across industries. This evidence has significant implications for the recent unresponsiveness of the Japanese trade balance to the large depreciation of the yen.     

Are Indian rice exporters able to price discriminate? Empirical evidence for basmati and non-basmati rice

The role of exchange rate fluctuations on the pricing behaviour of Indian rice exporters in their major destination markets is examined using the pricing-to-market (PTM) model. The analysis was undertaken in a context where India has emerged as a leading exporter of rice in the world market. The study distinguishes between basmati and non-basmati rice in the analysis as the destination markets differ across these two varieties. One of the key contributions of this study is that it undertakes an analysis under 3 exchange rate models, they are: nominal, real and commodity-specific exchange rates. The results from our analysis indicated the presence of non-competitive pricing behaviour of India’s rice exporters in majority of destination markets due to both the market-specific characteristics as well as exchange rate-induced effects. The amplification of exchange rate effects was more prominent in commodity-specific exchange rate model whereas local currency stabilization was more prominent under nominal and real exchange rate models. Furthermore, the analysis showed that the commodity-specific exchange rate better predicts the PTM behaviour of rice exporters.     

公共物品自发供给与个体的偏好异质性效应分析

考察一期同时行动时,个体的偏好差异对公共物品自发供给的影响。模型在对数柯布-道格拉斯效用函数的基础上,设定了反映偏好(偏好差异量)程度的参数,分析个体们的总收入在未达到和越过公共物品生产的最小捐赠水平两种均衡状态下,个体的最佳决策及偏好异质性效应。研究结果表明:个体的偏好差异对公共物品产出的作用依赖于成员们的收入预算开支与公共物品固定成本的比较,“U”型曲线之说不合适。     

Home and regional biases and border effects in Armington type models

We discuss biases in preferences and their trade effects in terms of impacts on non-neutral trade flows motivated by recent literature on both home bias and the border effect. These terms take on multiple definitions in the literature and are often used interchangeably even though they differ. The border effect refers to a higher proclivity to trade behind rather than across national borders and is usually defined by the coefficients of regional dummies from an estimated gravity model. It can be present both in data and in counterfactual model solutions. Sometimes the reduced form of the gravity model used is asserted to reflect an Armington type model. For the border effect to occur as a model outcome, a structural model with at least 2 home regions and 1 country abroad is needed. In contrast to current literature, we offer a characterization of various forms of preference bias in trade models and measures of their associated trade effects based on a concept we term trade neutrality. These effects go beyond conventional border effects, and can be both across and within borders. Home bias is typically specified as an Armington preference for domestic over comparable foreign products in a trade model where goods are heterogeneous across countries. It is reflected in both model structure and parameterization, but defined in several different ways in the literature. We assess the contribution of each form of bias to the set of possible trade effects using a calibrated model with 3 Canadian regions, the U.S., and the rest of the world using 2001 data. We also evaluate how much of the conventional border effect is accounted for when model biases are modified in various ways.     

Industrial structure and economic performance: The role of productive public expenditure

I consider productive government spending and preference for diversity in an imperfectly competitive macroeconomic framework, and analyze how differences in industrial structure affect economic growth and the welfare level. Two main findings emerge from the analysis. First, the optimal ratio of government spending is related to the extent of public expenditure externalities and preference for diversity. Second, the vertical separation regime leads to a higher economic growth rate and welfare level than the vertical integration regime, provided that the degree of monopoly power is relatively small.     

基于公平偏好的信息系统集成知识创新契约设计

基于公平心理客观上对协同主体决策过程的影响,引入F-S公平心理模型,构建了信息系统集成知识创新决策模型。得到结论:对于具有公平偏好心理的原系统服务商而言,其努力水平受嫉妒心理的影响,且随着嫉妒心理程度的提升而降低,道德风险随着努力水平的降低而增大;当原系统服务商付出最优努力水平时,它能有效规避道德风险。     

Pricing-to-Market Behavior: Japanese Exports to the US, Asia, and the EU

The paper examines the pricing-to-market (PTM) behavior of Japanese exporters in the US, Asian, and EU markets. Empirical evidence shows that PTM elasticity is highest to the US market. This matches the in-tuitive reasoning that the US market is more competitive than the EU and Asian markets for Japanese exporters. Furthermore, PTM elasticities estimated in this paper using expected exchange rates are positive but their amounts are smaller than PTM elasticities estimated by previous studies with actual exchange rates. The difference may be due to the fact that the invoice currency for most Japanese exports is the US dollar.     

Gender preference and transfers from parents to children: an inter-regional comparison

This paper examines whether parents exhibit gender preference in the allocation of family resources to their adult children. Gender preference is defined in the context of an altruistic model for inter-vivos transfer from parents to children extended to include educational investment. Data from the Health and Retirement Study (United States) and the Korean Longitudinal Study of Ageing are used to show that the degree of gender preference differs across these culturally distinct regions. Among Korean families, empirical results point to male preference as sons receive larger inter-vivos transfers and attain higher levels of education compared with daughters. In contrast, the evidence pertaining to gender preference among American families points to daughter preference as inter-vivos transfers and educational investment is generally higher among female adult children.     

New‐Keynesian Models and Monetary Policy: A Re‐examination of the Stylized Facts*

Using an empirical New‐Keynesian model with optimal discretionary monetary policy, we estimate key parameters—the central bank's preference parameters; the degree of forward‐looking behavior in the determination of inflation and output; and the variances of inflation and output shocks—to match some broad characteristics of U.S. data. The parameterization we obtain implies a small concern for output stability but a large preference for interest rate smoothing, and a small degree of forward‐looking behavior in price‐setting but a large degree of forward‐looking in the determination of output. Our methodology also allows us to carefully examine the consequences of alternative parameterizations and to provide intuition for our results.     

Exchange-rate pass-through at the product level

Abstract.  We use a detailed database to investigate exchange-rate pass-through at the product level for a large number of countries. The empirical analysis suggests that pricing behaviours are dichotomous, with complete pass-through in around 25% of sectors and significant pricing-to-market in the remaining ones. Average long-run pass-through coefficient is close to 80%; this result hides a strong heterogeneity of pass-through behaviours across sectors. Even when composition effects are controlled for, average pass-through varies across importing countries. The econometric analysis shows that pass-through tends to be higher in volatile environments; in less developed countries; in weakly integrated markets.     

Partial Privatization in a Differentiated Mixed Oligopoly

A model of differentiated mixed oligopoly is developed to systematically discuss the welfare consequences of partial privatization of a public firm. We analytically derive the optimal degree of partial privatization not only in the short run with restricted entry but also in the long run with free entry. It is shown that the short-run optimal policy is non-monotonic in the degree of love of variety, while the optimal degree of privatization is monotonically increasing in the consumer's preference for variety in the long run.      

ON DECREASING MARGINAL IMPATIENCE*

One of the most controversial assumptions in endogenous time preference theory is that the degree of impatience is marginally increasing in wealth. We examine the implications of an empirically more relevant specification whereby time preference exhibits decreasing marginal impatience (DMI). With DMI, there are multiple steady‐state non‐satiated and satiated equilibria. In a constant interest rate economy, the non‐satiated steady‐state point is necessarily unstable. In a capital economy with decreasing returns technology, both the non‐satiated and satiated steady‐state points can be saddlepoint stable. The model is used to examine policy implications for the effects of capital taxation and government spending.