Do Industry‐Level Analyses Improve Forecasts of Financial Performance?

Prior research documents mean reversion in firm profitability and growth under the implicit assumption that profitability and growth of all firms revert to a common benchmark at the same rate. However, a large body of academic research suggests that there are systematic interindustry differences (e.g., industry barriers to entry) that differentially affect firm performance based on industry membership. We evaluate the relative forecast accuracy of mean reverting models at the industry and economywide levels and find that industry-specific models are generally more accurate in predicting firm growth but not profitability.     

Commercial bank mutual fund activities: Implications for bank risk and profitability

This paper examines the risk structure of bank holding companies and the effect of mutual fund activities on bank risk and profitability over the period 1987–1994. Findings from structural change tests indicate a significant decline in bank risk occurred near the mid-point of the study. Results from a confirmatory factor analytic model employed to examine the impact of mutual fund activities on banks suggest that mutual fund activities moderated bank industry systematic risk during the sample period. Mutual fund activities also increased the profitability of banks. These results suggest that mutual funds represent a productive avenue of expansion for bank holding companies.     

Mean Reversion in Profitability for Non‐listed Firms

The presence of mean reversion in profitability at the firm level is important for valuation and prediction of growth and earnings. We investigate the mean reversion in accounting profitability for Norwegian non‐listed firms for the period 1988–2006. We find a mean reversion rate of about 0.44 per year. This is higher than found in other studies. We also find that small firms have a higher mean reversion rate than large firms. Our results should have important practical implications for the difficult task of valuing non‐listed firms. Previously, price‐to‐book ratios have been used to investigate changes in profitability over time for listed firms. We examine bankruptcy risk as an alternative variable for unlisted firms. We find that bankruptcy risk may help explain changes in profitability, but the results are not as strong as found in previous work.     

The impact of opacity on bank valuation during the global financial crisis: A channel analysis

Prior literature suggests that opacity in the banking industry is mainly caused by a lack of informativeness in the assessment of the quality of bank assets. Examining a sample of bank holding companies in the United States, we find that there is a negative relationship between opacity and bank valuation during the 2007–2009 global financial crisis. We further attempt to identify two potential channels through which opacity negatively affects bank valuation during the financial crisis: a cash flow channel and an expected return channel. We show that one channel flows from bank profitability, measured by return on equity and return on assets, confirming a cash flow channel, whereas an expected return channel, proxied by the implied cost of capital, only works for small banks. Overall, this study sheds light on the relationship between in-transparency and bank value discount during a global recession.     

Post‐Merger Performance of Bank Holding Companies, 1987–1998

This paper examines the results of material mergers between bank holding companies (BHCs). Merged BHCs experience post‐merger profitability below the industry average. The market reaction to the merger announcements is significantly negative. The most important causes of the poor post‐merger performance are credit quality and the inadequate generation of fee income. Asset mix and capitalization also play a major part. The controllability of these items demonstrates the management challenge associated with a material merger.     

Are Banks Affiliated with Bank Holding Companies More Efficient Than Independent Banks? The Recent Experience Regarding Japanese Regional BHCs

Few studies have investigated whether Japanese banks affiliated with bank holding companies are more efficient and profitable than independent banks. The present paper tests this hypothesis by using both a stochastic frontier approach and a market valuation approach. First, our results suggest that banks affiliated with bank holding companies are not more cost-efficient than are independent banks. Because of the brief history of Japanese BHCs, it is fair to conclude that the formation of regional bank holding companies has not achieved efficiency gains so far. Second, we find that banks affiliated with bank holding companies are more profit-efficient than are independent banks. This is particularly apparent when the establishment of the bank holding companies increases market power in regional markets. This supports the Financial Services Agency’s policy to increase the profitability of regional banks through bank consolidation. Finally, based on standard event study methodology, we find that the market did not regard news about the establishment of bank holding companies as significant events.JEL Classification: G21     

Momentum trading,mean reversal and overreaction in Chinese stock market

The vast majority of the literature reports momentum profitability to be overwhelming in the US market and widespread in other countries. However, this paper finds that the pure momentum strategy in general does not yield excess profitability in the Chinese stock markets. We find instead strong mean reversion with an average half-life slightly shorter than 1 year. A pure contrarian investment strategy produces positive excess returns and in general outperforms the pure momentum strategy. Furthermore, momentum may interact with mean reversion. A strategy based on the rolling-regression parameter estimates of the model combining mean reversion and momentum generates both statistically and economically significant excess returns. The combined strategy outperforms both pure momentum and pure contrarian strategies. We conduct a number of robustness tests and confirm the basic findings. Collectively, our results support the overreaction hypothesis.     

最优银行集中度之谜

本文通过对89组跨国数据的实证分析,系统研究了银行集中度和银行体系稳定性之间的关系。实证结果表明,银行集中度和银行稳定性之间的关系并不是过往文献所集中讨论的简单线性关系,而是存在一个最优的银行集中度区间(0.6,0.8],这一区间恰好位于样本均值附近,并向样本均值收敛;而当一国的银行集中度水平处于(0.8,0.9]时,银行体系的稳定性最低,极易发生银行危机。进一步的分析表明,在最优的银行集中度区间内,银行业的产业结构能较好地在适度竞争和盈利之间获得平衡,而隐藏在"最优银行集中度之谜"背后的机制极有可能是"优胜劣汰"这一自然法则在社会经济领域的再现。     

Effect of Internationalization on the Cost Efficiency of Taiwan’s Banks

Abstract:

We focus on the effect of internationalization on the cost efficiency of banks by studying Taiwan as a sample for developing countries. We find that (1) increasing overseas businesses and foreign exchange deposits increases cost efficiency; (2) expanding offshore banking units increases bank efficiency; and (3) the profitability of a bank’s overseas branch is not a critical factor behind the differences in cost efficiency across both financial holding company (FHC) banks and non-financial holding company (non-FHC) banks. Finally, our metafrontier empirical results illustrate that FHC banks in Taiwan show better technical performance in cost control than non-FHC banks.     

考察台湾地区保险市场的若干思考

本文通过对台湾保险业反欺诈工作情况、保险业资金运用政策与现状、金融业综合经营与金控公司的发展、保险行业组织的发展与作用等重要问题的考察,借鉴台湾保险业的经验和教训,提出应建立两岸保险反欺诈合作机制,在大陆逐步建立行业性保险犯罪信息数据库,进一步发挥行业组织在反保险欺诈工作中的作用,加强反保险欺诈国际交流,稳步推进费率市...     

Does high profitability improve stability for European banks?

We investigate whether high profitability influences the occurrence of bank distress in Europe. We utilize four sets of indicators for high profitability in logit models to explain bank distress with a hand-collected dataset of European bank distresses. We find that high profitability does not reduce the occurrence of bank distress. In contrast, we obtain limited evidence that high profitability can lead to increase such occurrence through a time horizon of about 3 years. Our findings therefore challenge the view that bank profitability should be promoted to favor bank stability.     

互联网金融影响了商业银行流动性创造吗?

选取2010-2019年中国98家商业银行年度数据就互联网金融对银行流动性创造的影响及其作用机制进行实证分析.研究发现:互联网金融通过分流银行存款及理财资金对银行盈利形成冲击,由此引发的"鲶鱼效应"会倒逼银行加大存贷期限错配来缓解盈利下降压力,从而促进银行流动性创造.相对于国有银行与城农商行,互联网金融对股份制银行流动性创造的促进力度更大.金融脱媒仅在P2P网络借贷对银行流动性创造的影响中承担着中介作用,但"第三方支付-金融脱媒-银行流动性创造"的传导渠道无效.银行业景气度提高会加剧互联网金融对流动性创造的促进作用,银行流动性创造存在顺周期倾向.     

我国上市银行利差决定因素分析

本文对国内2000～2009年间上市银行利差率的决定因素按照银行经营的安全、效率和盈利指标,结合行业和宏观经济状况等因素进行了实证分析。结论表明,虽然股份制上市银行经营状况普遍优于国有银行,但其经营行为可能会部分抵消央行的利率政策,同时股票市场发展对银行经营没有显著性影响。     

Pricing assets with stochastic cash-flow growth

We model the time series behavior of dividend growth rates, as well as the profitability rate, with a variety of autoregressive moving-average processes, and use the capital asset pricing model (CAPM) to derive the appropriate discount rate. One of the most important implications of this research is that the rate of return beta changes with the time to maturity of the expected cash flow, and the degree of mean reversion displayed by the growth rate. We explore the consequences of this observation for three different strands of the literature. The first is for the value premium anomaly, the second for stock valuation and learning about long-run profitability, and the third is for the St. Petersburg paradox. One of the most surprising results is that the CAPM implies a higher rate of return beta for value stocks than growth stocks. Therefore, value stocks must have higher expected returns, and this is what is required theoretically in order to explain the well-known value premium anomaly.     

全球金融危机以来的日本银行业

全球金融危机发生以来的日本经济金融动向日本银行业面临金融市场和实体经济的动荡2007年的次贷危机首先导致美国抵押贷款等证券化商品交易急剧减少,造成了整个金融交易和资本交易的混乱。与此同     

从花旗、富国银行看我国商业银行增长方式的转变

花旗银行与富国银行增长方式及其业绩表现的对比表明，以推进大型并购为主的外延式增长虽然有助于商业银行迅速做大规模，却容易忽略核心业务、盈利能力与风险管理建设，难以实现可持续发展。我国商业银行应借鉴国际同业经验，从市场定位、业务结构、盈利模式和资本约束机制等方面入手，实现平衡增长。     

Making sense of cross-purchasing: A note

This paper examines the supposition that there is a correlation between holding more than one product and customer profitability. Most companies fail to understand the simple statistics of cross-selling, therefore the paper considers a series of statistical models that will help financial services marketing managers to assess their cross-holding rates in relation to the average for the industry.     

Banks as information specialists: The case of hospital lending

This study analyzes data from the US hospital industry for evidence that banks enjoy informational advantages over direct lenders. In a multivariate analysis, we find a strong positive relationship between bank loans (as a share of total borrowing) and profitability among hospitals widely perceived as financially weak. Thus, among such hospitals, reliance on bank loans suggests the presence of hidden factors that enhance the hospital's financial standing. This supports the view that financial intermediaries are information specialists.     

Liquidity creation,regulatory capital,and bank profitability

We examine the interrelationships among liquidity creation, regulatory capital, and bank profitability of US banks. We find that regulatory capital and liquidity creation affect each other positively after controlling for bank profitability. However, this relationship is largely driven by small banks and primarily during non-crisis periods. It is also sensitive to the level of banks' regulatory capital and how it is measured. Furthermore, we find that banks which create more liquidity and exhibit higher illiquidity risk have lower profitability. Finally, the relationship between regulatory capital and bank performance is not linear and depends on the level of capitalization. Regulatory capital is negatively related to bank profitability for higher capitalized banks but positively related to profitability for lower capitalized banks. Therefore, a change in regulatory capital has differential impacts on bank performance. Our findings have various implications for policymakers and bank regulators.     

台湾地区银行保险业之发展

银行保险(Bancassurance)在欧美已盛行多年且深具实效,然在我国台湾地区是一个新兴起的渠道,并正处于发展阶段。近年来台湾地区寿险业之经营面临各种内外在环境变迁影响,获利节节下降,营运困难度增加。加以金融制度开放,致银行、保险、证券间的业务区隔逐渐模糊,如何整合行销资源和突破现有困境以获取最大竞争优势,遂成为寿险业者营运重点。从事银行保险,如能充分发挥双方优势,能为消费者、寿险业及银行业三方带来利益,并可达到三赢的成效。