The housing bubble and a new approach to accounting for housing in a CPI

Over the course of the recent house price bubble in the United States, the price of homes rose rapidly from 1999 Q4 to 2005 Q4 (11.3% annually as measured by the Case-Shiller index, and 8.4% annually as measured by the Federal Housing Financing Agency) but slowly as measured by owner equivalent rents (3.4%), so measured core inflation remained relatively docile during this period, since only rents are used to measure inflation for housing services in the United States. Over the last several decades, the US Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) has experimented with both rental equivalence and user cost approaches for accounting for owner occupied housing (OOH) services in the CPI. We explain the basics of these approaches, and outline the BLS experiences with using them. This assessment leads us to conclude that the time has come to try a new approach: the opportunity cost approach. We argue this approach has advantages over both the conventional rental equivalence and user cost approaches, though it embeds components of the measures for both those approaches and builds solidly on the research of Verbrugge and others at the BLS. Also, we take up empirical issues that must be faced regardless of which of the approaches discussed is adopted. We explain how the repeat-sales and various hedonic regression methods can be placed in a common framework, thereby facilitating understanding of the properties of and the tradeoffs between the methods. We also consider measurement complications that arise because the land and structure components of properties depreciate at different rates.     

Reconciling user costs and rental equivalence: Evidence from the US consumer expenditure survey

Previous research [Verbrugge, Randal, 2008a. The puzzling divergence of aggregate rents and user costs, 1980–2004. The Review of Income and Wealth 54(4), 671–699] demonstrated that housing rents and ex ante user costs diverge markedly for extended periods of time, a finding with profound implications for income and inflation measurement. But the primary data sources in that study were various indexes, based upon largely disjoint data sources, constructed using different aggregation techniques, and each subject to various criticisms. This raised doubts about the quality of the comparison. The relationship between user costs and rents might well be much tighter at the micro level; after all, house prices and rents (and their growth rates) can vary dramatically within cities, and rents are notoriously sticky. Furthermore, the use of indexes precludes both cross-sectional and dollar cost comparisons. In this study, we use Consumer Expenditure Interview Survey (CE) data to examine the relationship between user costs and rents at the individual unit-level, in dollars, using unit-level information on house value, rent, taxes, and the like. This allows us to accurately estimate unit-specific user costs and to control for unobservables like structure and neighborhood quality. We also make the point that in theory, after-tax user costs should equal net rent, i.e., expected rental income, rather than gross rent.Our findings are striking. In keeping with most previous research, we find tremendous divergence between conventional measures of user costs and net rents, thus ruling out index construction errors as a possible explanation. This divergence does not result from a faulty rent measure: we find that reported rents are sensible, in that they move similarly to official rent indexes, and are not simply out-of-pocket expenses. Instead, and most perplexing, we find a surprisingly close correspondence between net rents and a particular estimate of user costs, one implicitly assuming zero transactions costs and constructed using an appreciation measure that is both theoretically suspect and empirically a poor predictor of actual appreciation.     

住房价格指数以及区位对住房价格的影响——北京市住房价格实证分析

根据北京市的1308个新建住宅项目数据,建立了Hedonic模型,着重分析了时间、距离、环线以及行政区等变量对住房价格的影响,构建了北京市住房Hedonic价格指数和住房价格的梯度曲线.     

国外土地利用管制与住宅价格研究综述

对国外土地利用管制与住宅价格相互关系的研究进行归纳.研究表明,土地利用管制与住宅价格之间存在很大的不确定性,且不同的控制措施对住房价格的影响具有累加效应.因此,实践中应明确管制的目的,谨防垄断性区划的存在.     

经济适用房市场的问题与解决对策

经济适用房是国家为了解决城市中低收入者住房困难 ,采取减免地租、税收等政策来降低建房成本 ,使中低收入者能够买得起的一种房屋。从 1 998年开始 ,经济适用房在全国范围内出现以来 ,各地的经济适用房市场发展态势良好 ,很多地方都出现了供销两旺的局面。但在经济适用房市场的发展过程中 ,也出现了很多问题 ,本文分析了这些问题并提出了解决措施。     

北京：人口剧增背景下的房价综合治理

北京市人口呈现爆炸式增长,有观点认为应放任房价上涨以此解决人口问题。本文从分析北京市近年来人口变动情况及北京市房价现状入手,分析“高房价抑制人口增长论”,提出解决人口剧增的根本性办法是加快城乡统筹,从宏观层面予以解决。在北京市人口剧增的背景下,北京房价的调控措施应该包括坚持限购政策、开征房产税、加大保障性住房建设、打击市场上垄断投机、骗购骗租等不良行为。     

房价逆调控而上涨的政策性原因与对策

针对近期我国房价快速上涨、房地产商及高价商品房主导市场、住房投机愈演愈烈、中低收入阶层住房困难等问题,作者对北京房地产市场进行了调查研究,并从中发现了一些值得探讨的问题.本文通过对廉租房、经济适用房、商品房、出租房现状及相关政策进行客观分析,揭示了我国高房价的症结及一些政策方面的原因.文中以调查研究为依据,提出了强化政府责任、完善住房保障政策的个人看法与建议.     

房价与地价关系的分析

地价与房价是衡量房地产市场运行健康状况的两个重要指标。明确房价和地价的关系,不仅对分析房地产市场的运行具有重要的意义,而且还能直接或间接地影响着房地产市场的有序发展。文章主要对此进行了简单的分析。     

保障房建设在房地产及经济发展中的作用

在我国房地产供应市场化的过程中,市场主体的不断增强导致了房地产资源的分配出现了严重不均的状态,于是,国家对房地产业进行了数次调控。当前的保障房建设规模的迅速扩大是国家对房地产业宏观调控取得的重要成果之一。在保障房建设过程中,一方面应实现保障房建设自身的有序发展,另一方面亦应关注商品房建设的健康发展,最终使房地产资源的配置得到优化和国家整体经济的健康平稳发展。     

香港公共房屋制度的成功经验及其启示

住房是人类一项最基本的生存需要.解决城市中低收入居民的住房问题是建设和谐社会的主要组成部分.近年来,随着内地商品房价格的快速上涨,发展经济适用房和廉租房制度,解决我国内地中低收入居民的住房问题日益迫切.本文分析了香港公共房屋制度的成功之处,并从资金、管理,以及公共房屋资源的合理分配等几方面探讨了其对内地的启示.     

英国住房规划调控研究及对我国的启示

英国自20世纪中期开始形成了一套以规划手段为基础的住房保障措施,成为西方住房规划调控的最成熟的典范之一,对我国具有重要的参考借鉴价值.以英国住房保障措施的规划调控思想发展过程为线索,重点就几种主要规划调控措施--所有权控制、使用变更控制、贡献和义务机制和规划特例机制的理念方法、经验教训等内容进行综合分析,并结合我国当前城市住房问题提出改进我国现行住房规划调控的建议,以期为我国住房研究、规划调控和政策引导提供参考.     

保障房用地规划现存问题影响因素分析

通过社会调查、理论分析和比较研究相结合的方法,对我国当前城市保障性住房用地规划中的问题及其制度约束进行了深入分析。认为我国城市保障房制度的政策体系尚不完善,导致用地选址困难、配套设施滞后和区域布局失衡等问题,其制度根源在于地方财政偏好、保障房区位干扰、建设空间限制、房价收入比大、集体建设用地市场化不足等方面。通过比较国际经验,提出了加强组织协调、编制专项规划、建立多样化的建设模式、加快配套制度改革等政策建议。     

地价与房价关系探析

在对房地产市场结构、运行模式分析的基础上,分析并阐述地价与房价之间的关系。为了清楚揭示这二者之间的关系,首先对“地价是否是房价的决定因素”这个问题进行了探讨,并在此基础上从市场角度出发,沿着市场→房价→地价这条主线,揭示在市场作用下受供求关系的影响房价不断攀升,而且有力推动地价上涨。接着,继续研究地价、房价的变动对房地产市场所产生的影响,揭示了当前地价、房价的上涨不但没有降低需求热度,反而使开发商和购房者的购买欲更旺,市场的供求差距进一步拉大,以此形成一个循环正反馈链。最后,针对房价上涨,对中央政府和地方政府的协调行为提出了几点建议。     

房地产价格随机波动与房地产收益风险值(VaR)的研究

分析房地产价格的变化规律,科学准确地预测未来某一时点的价格,对房地产投资和国家针对房地产过热问题进行宏观调控具有重要指导意义。探讨了VaR方法在房地产收益波动性度量中的应用,并对上海住宅和办公楼价格指数时间序列收益率风险进行了实证研究;结果表明,SV模型能很好刻画价格指数实际特征,也能准确地预测房地产价格波动性。     

公租房小区的特征及治理

公租房小区有三个特征:一是租房者和买房者的混居;二是政府在公租房小区有着相当比重的经济利益;三是居民都是社会的收入中下阶层。公租房小区要避免变成贫民窟,其关键之一是中下阶层的居民能够也愿意参与到小区的治理中来。在此基础上,公租房小区的治理应该强调以小区居民代表为主体组成小区管理委员会,居民代表由居民大会选举产生,买房者的投票权高于租房者,政府代表拥有一定比例的投票权。     

就业与居住的空间匹配——基于城市经济学角度的思考

城市发展中就业与居住的空间匹配问题是国际上城市空间结构研究的前沿课题.综述了就业与居住空间关系的城市经济学基本理论,并对国际学术界有关本问题的研究思路和成果进行了系统的归纳总结,从中提炼关键的科学问题,并结合目前我国城市中就业和居住空间分布演变的现状,提出进一步研究的前景和方向.     

城中村非正规住房供给市场形成原因分析——以深圳市为例

快速城市化背景下,"城中村"非正规住房逐渐成为城市居住格局的重要组成部分。以深圳市为例,探讨不同利益主体在"城中村"非正规住房供给过程中的角色及相互关系。研究发现,地方政府、村集体、城中村村民、合作建房者和外来人口构成了"城中村"非正规住房供给过程中的主要利益主体,并承担着不同的角色和功能,形成了以城中村村民为核心的关系网络。利益主体相互关联形成不同类型的利益共同体,共同推动"城中村"非正规住房的形成和发展。在此基础上,提出了"城中村"非正规住房的管治方向与建议。     

浅谈高房价的成因及调控对策

自2005年以来,房价一直为众人所关注。当前,房价经过这几年的疯狂上涨,已经到了一个令普通老百姓瞠目结舌的地步。近年来,政府颁布了一系列法令措施来抑制房价的快速增长,各地也出台了限房令,以此来达到调控房价的目的。但依照目前房价态势来看,效果不是非常理想。想要从根源上探索治理房价的方法,必须了解形成高房价的成因,深入分析造成高房价泡沫的各个因素。     

Financial repression and housing investment: An analysis of the Korean chonsei

South Korea has a unique kind of rental contract, called chonsei. The tenant pays an upfront deposit, typically from 40% to 70% of the property value, to the landlord, and the landlord repays the deposit to the tenant upon contract termination. The tenant is not required to make any periodic monthly rental payments. The main goal of this paper is to show why such a unique rental contract exists and has been popular in Korea. The model shows that chonsei is an ingenious market response in the era of “financial repression” in Korea (Renaud, 1989), allowing landlords to accumulate sufficient funds for housing investment without major reliance on a mortgage. The model also shows that the tenant, who suffers from insufficient mortgage borrowings, can access cheaper rental housing via chonsei than when only monthly rental housing is available. The model predicts that the chonsei system should fade out when arbitrage gains from housing investment disappear. An implication of the model is that the chonsei renter may save while the landlord and the owner-occupier put all their assets into housing and thus have no financial savings. This hypothesis is empirically tested and confirmed.