STOCK LOANS

This paper introduces a mathematical model for a currently popular financial product called a stock loan. Quantitative analysis is carried out to establish explicitly the value of such a loan, as well as the ranges of fair values of the loan size and interest, and the fee for providing such a service.     

A Note on Hedging in ARCH and Stochastic Volatility Option Pricing Models

Recently, Duan (1995) proposed a GARCH option pricing formula and a corresponding hedging formula. In a similar ARCH-type model for the underlying asset, Kallsen and Taqqu (1994) arrived at a hedging formula different from Duan's although they concur on the pricing formula. In this note, we explain this difference by pointing out that the formula developed by Kallsen and Taqqu corresponds to the usual concept of hedging in the context of ARCH-type models. We argue, however, that Duan's formula has some appeal and we propose a stochastic volatility model that ensures its validity. We conclude by a comparison of ARCH-type and stochastic volatility option pricing models.     

On Feedback Effects from Hedging Derivatives

This paper proposes a new explanation for the smile and skewness effects in implied volatilities. Starting from a microeconomic equilibrium approach, we develop a diffusion model for stock prices explicitly incorporating the technical demand induced by hedging strategies. This leads to a stochastic volatility endogenously determined by agents' trading behavior. By using numerical methods for stochastic differential equations, we quantitatively substantiate the idea that option price distortions can be induced by feedback effects from hedging strategies.     

美式封顶看涨期权的变分不等方程模型

期权及其定价理论是目前金融工程的前沿问题。美式看涨期权的出售者具有无限制的义务,承担着巨大的风险,而美式封顶看涨期权可以使出售者承担有限责任,降低了风险。本文在假定无风险利率r不大于连续红利q时,基于Black-Scholes模型推导出有红利的美式封顶看涨期权定价模型-变分不等方程模型,并且用有限差分格式给出了模型的数值解法。     

On the Pricing of Contingent Claims with Frictions

This paper studies the problem of pricing contingent claims in a market which has frictions in the form of costs, such as penalty functions corresponding to constraints. An arbitrage-free interval is identified, and a fair price based upon utility functions is proposed. It provides a framework to study incomplete markets that is simplier than the one related to constraints on portfolios introduced by Karatzas and Kou.     

潜在进入威胁下的实物期权价值分析与评估

目前在对实物期权的研究中,存在着忽视市场竞争对实物期权价值影响的问题,其结果造成项目价值的高估。通过引入价格带的方法,探讨在完全独占和竞争性的情况下实物期权的价值变化,进而指出,由于忽视市场竞争对实物期权价值的影响,会造成项目价值的高估而导致错误的决策。     

运用期权定价模型评估公司价值

本着把期权思想应用于公司价值评估,分别运用二叉树模型和Black-Scholes模型计算公司价值,并对这一方法的应用价值及局限性进行一定的探讨。     

存款保险的期权定价模型构造及实证研究

存款保险定价是存款保险制度建设中的核心内容,保险定价效率直接影响制度的功效。碍于现金流贴现估价模型的局限性,从期权的角度阐述了存款保险与期权的关系,指出存款保险合同实质上就是一份看跌期权,从理论和实证两方面论述了如何运用Black-Schole期权定价模型确定存款保险价格的问题,对实践中存款保险的合理定价和制度建设具有重要的指导意义。     

中国高层经理股票期权最优激励比例研究

高层经理股票期权机制将经理人员的报酬与公司的市场价值联系在一起,从而达到降低代理成本,增加社会福利的目的。目前国内关于股权激励问题的研究很多,但还存在着一定的争议,特别是关于股权激励的定量分析。本文以经济分析法为基本研究方法,辅以实证研究的方法以高层经理股票期权为内容进行了分析,针对最优期权比例的确立进行研究,通过委托-代理模型分析方法建立最优股权激励模型,并对影响最优股权激励的因素进行讨论,提出建议,以促使股票期权激励制在中国达到应有的实施效果。     

股票期权的激励机理及再设计

股票期权是西方完善市场机制的产物,作为一种薪酬制度安排,其本质是通过经营者对所获期权时间价值的追逐来实现所有者和经营者的长期激励相容。但在我国目前条件下,考虑到市场的不规则,国企产权的不清晰及相关法律的不健全等现实障碍,在引进的同时加强对股票期权的再设计是比较符合中国的国情的。为此,必须妥善解决好一系列的问题,使股票期权在中国的推行更具有现实性。     

我国农产品价格形成机制及波动效应分析

在市场机制下,基于不同的市场交易,形成农产品集市价格、批发价格和期货价格,三者共同调节农产品市场供求关系。我国粮食价格波动轨迹符合蛛网模型现象,表明农产品供求弹性较小,无论源于供给还是需求方的变化,都会引起农产品价格较大幅度的变化。农产品价格的不稳定性,实质上反映着农业收益的不稳定性。建立农业共生组织,通过市场主体间的共生与协作,形成农业产前、产中和产后各环节的互补性和资源依存性,是稳定农产品价格的一种准市场性的资源配置方式。     

中国股票期权激励的有效性分析

从理论上讲,股票期权是一种很完美的激励管理方式。然而,在我国上市公司中目前已有超过30家企业宣布停止股权激励计划。究其原因,是国家处于对股权激励机制负面效应的考虑：股价与企业价值分离、经理人市场弱有效性、税法不完善等。从股票期权激励利弊及正反效应分析看,中国可借鉴美国的做法,加快完善资本市场,有效设计合理的股票期权激励方案;实现经理人竞争上岗;分类制定税收政策;将股票期权划分为激励型和非激励型,对激励型股票期权实行更为优惠的税收政策。     

Equilibrium Pricing in the Presence of Cumulative Dividends Following a Diffusion

The paper presents some security market pricing results in the setting of a security market equilibrium in continuous time. The theme of the paper is financial valuation theory when the primitive assets pay out real dividends represented by processes of unbounded variation. In continuous time, when the models are also continuous, this is the most general representation of real dividends, and it can be of practical interest to analyze such models.
Taking as the starting point an extension to continuous time of the Lucas consumption-based model, we derive the equilibrium short-term interest rate, present a new derivation of the consumption-based capital asset pricing model, demonstrate how equilibrium forward and futures prices can be derived, including several examples, and finally we derive the equilibrium price of a European call option in a situation where the underlying asset pays dividends according to an Itô process of unbounded variation. In the latter case we demonstrate how this pricing formula simplifies to known results in special cases, among them the famous Black–Scholes formula and the Merton formula for a special dividend rate process.     

The Sensitivity of the General Price Level to Changes in the Price of Crude Oil

There are many direct and indirect effects of changing crude oil prices on the inflation rate, so it is not surprising that there are different views about the resulting effects on the general price level and also on other aspects of the general economy. This study, estimates the direct and indirect effects of oil price changes on the economy-wide rate of inflation, which then has effects on spending and producing decisions. However, in this forum, we do not try to estimate the full indirect effects on the level of economic activity, such as effects on real GDP. JEL Classification E310, E370     

上市公司股权激励影响公司价值的实证分析

建立健全经营者股权激励机制是深化国有企业改革和增强企业活力的重要途径之一,经营者持股、国家股股东(国有资本注资持股)和流通股股东(中小股东持股)具有不同的股权激励效果。其中经营者持股具有最强的激励功能,有利于改善公司绩效和提升公司价值;委托代理关系下的国有资本容易出现投资者主体缺乏保护机制的问题,进而扩大委托代理关系的距离以及信息的不对称程度,引发企业效率低下;在流通股股东的激励环境下,股权流动性分裂从根本上损害了上市公司股东之间利益的一致性,可能导致经营者持股和国家股的激励减弱。在总结前人研究成果的基础上,选择制造业机械、设备、仪表次类上市公司为研究样本,从实证的角度对上述问题进行了探索。     

统一股价指数的必要性及绩效分析

股票指数是投资者分析股市动态,拟定投资策略的重要参考依据,同时也是研究和分析一国政治、经济等情况的重要指标。在我国同时存在沪深两个证券交易所,人为地造成了股票市场的分割,难以形成统一的股票价格指数体系,应尽快编制出全国统一的股价指数,促进我国证券市场的健康发展。     

论我国企业跨国并购的战略选择

随着我国企业实力的不断增强和竞争的加剧,越来越多的企业走出国门,开展跨国并购。企业开展跨国并购有利于获取我国经济发展所需的短缺资源和企业发展所需的技术、品牌和市场。目前,国内国际形势和国家政策导向都十分有利于企业"走出去"开展跨国并购。但由于我国企业规模小、实力弱及国内外文化环境、政治经济环境差异大,企业跨国并购也面临许多障碍。我国企业跨国并购要想取得成功,必须在并购主体、目标市场、并购行业、并购对象和并购方式等方面做出正确的战略选择,同时,我国政府也需要出台一些相应的扶持和鼓励措施。     

并购交易价格形成探析

目标企业选择是并购成功的前提条件,并购谈判、实施是并购的核心,并购整合结果是衡量并购成功的重要标志。在企业并购过程中对并购双方利益影响最大的问题就是目标企业交易价格的确定问题。并购双方的动机和考虑因素不同,并购交易的价格也有所不同。     

On the Rate of Convergence of Discrete‐Time Contingent Claims

This paper characterizes the rate of convergence of discrete‐time multinomial option prices. We show that the rate of convergence depends on the smoothness of option payoff functions, and is much lower than commonly believed because option payoff functions are often of all‐or‐nothing type and are not continuously differentiable. To improve the accuracy, we propose two simple methods, an adjustment of the discrete‐time solution prior to maturity and smoothing of the payoff function, which yield solutions that converge to their continuous‐time limit at the maximum possible rate enjoyed by smooth payoff functions. We also propose an intuitive approach that systematically derives multinomial models by matching the moments of a normal distribution. A highly accurate trinomial model also is provided for interest rate derivatives. Numerical examples are carried out to show that the proposed methods yield fast and accurate results.     

流通领域和物价上涨的关联性研究

目前我国居民消费价格指数(CPI)持续上扬,通货膨胀形势严峻,加剧了社会收入分配的“马太效应”,不利于经济的持续发展与和谐社会的构建.本文对几种引发物价上涨的原因进行研究发现,造成物价上涨的主要原因在于流通领域内引导和监管不力的私有经济,私人资本对利润的无限追逐是导致物价上涨的经济基础.文章提出,为更好地抑制物价的过度上涨,必须坚持和谐发展的目标,放眼于经济的持续、健康发展,既减少此次物价飞涨的消极影响,又积极进行体制改革和创新,进而更进一步优化我国经济布局,增强国际竞争力.一要调整国有经济在流通领域的战略;二要加强对私有经济的引导和监管;三要解决产权问题;四要设立稳定物价的专门经济组织;五要建立农民专业化合作组织;六要制定并完善相关法律和法规.