INTERNATIONAL TRANSFERS AND ECONOMIC PERFORMANCE ANALYSIS

This paper examines the appropriate treatment of international transfers in the national accounts. It argues that the appropriate treatment differs, depending upon the use to be made of the accounts. The treatment recommended in the SNA is appropriate for expenditure behavior analysis, with its emphasis on total disposable income on the one hand, and its allocation between consumption and saving on the other. For economic performance analysis, however, the primary focus of interest is the excess, if any, of aggregate resource use over the GNP, i.e., the extent to which the combined level of consumption and investment is sustained out of own production or is dependent on unrequited capital inflow. It is essential for this purpose that the measure of capital inflow include all international transfers regardless of their economic destination.     

MEASURING THE ECONOMIC PERFORMANCE OF TRANSITION ECONOMIES: SOME LESSONS FROM CHINESE EXPERIENCE

This article quantifies the comparative performance of China in several dimensions. Firstly, it shows that China's move from a command to a market economy was less abrupt and more successful than that of 29 other economies making a similar transition. Secondly, while official estimates show annual GDP growth of 9.6 percent in 1978–2003, this is reduced to 7.9 percent after adjustment for exaggeration of industrial performance and growth in non-material services. Thirdly, as the exchange rate understates China's achievement, a purchasing power parity (PPP) converter is necessary to measure comparative level of performance. Our PPP converter shows that China in 2005 was the world's second largest economy, with a GDP about 80 percent of the U.S. It is assumed that China will have overtaken the U.S. as the world's biggest economy before 2015. Until recently, the World Bank estimate of the PPP for China was close to that of Maddison, but the Bank's new estimate for 2005 shows Chinese GDP about half this level. The Bank's new estimates for China and other Asian countries are not plausible, and this paper advances several reasons for rejecting them. Finally, energy use per head of population is a good deal smaller than that of the U.S., and its total energy use for a much bigger population is likely to be somewhat smaller than that of the U.S. in 2030. However, heavy dependence on dirty coal means that it will have bigger carbon emissions than the U.S. This is a major problem as Beijing and other big cities already have severe pollution problems.     

MODELING AND MEASURING THE ECONOMIC ROLES OF TECHNOLOGY INFRASTRUCTURE

Designing and managing an economy's technology infrastructure requires both accurate economic models and data to drive them. Previous models treat technology as a homogeneous entity, thereby precluding assessing investment barriers affecting infrastructure elements. The model presented overcomes this deficiency by disaggregating the knowledge production function into key elements of the typical industrial technology based on the distinctly different investment incentives associated with each element. Without such a model, the economist's ability to assess important market failures associated with investment in the major technology elements, including those with infrastructure (public-good) characteristics, is compromised. Unfortunately, even with the correct knowledge production function, the required data are difficult to collect. This forces government agencies, which fund a majority of technology infrastructure research, to use second-best approaches for economic analyses. The second half of this paper therefore presents an analytical framework that can be driven by more accessible data and provide reasonable impact assessments until better data become available.     

BULGARIA'S NATIONAL INCOME AND ECONOMIC GROWTH, 1913–45

The article concerns Bulgarian statisticians' work on accounting of national income within the first half of the 20th century. Basic concepts of these authors are described, and aggregate data sets derived by them presented. The trend of economic growth in Bulgaria is analyzed, mainly from 1924 to 1945. The statistics of industrial and agricultural change, as well as the foreign trade activity are considered. An historical interpretation of that change is given.     

2002年世界经济形势与中国的对策

2001年世界经济陷入了30年来最严重的衰退。这次衰退是继多年经济繁荣后的“硬着陆”,衰退导致世界经济增长曲线呈现“U”字型。从全球主要经济机构的预测结果看,2002年世界经济前景依然黯淡。世界经济的复苏,取决于美国经济的复苏,而美国经济复苏主要依靠扩张性政策的拉动,是政策导向型的复苏。面对严峻的外部经济环境,2002年中国经济要实现7%以上的增长,在立足于内需的同时,应对对外经济政策做适当的调整。     

MEASURING NON‐ECONOMIC WELL‐BEING ACHIEVEMENT

Income per capita and most widely reported, non‐ or non‐exclusively income based human well‐being indicators are highly correlated among countries. Yet many countries exhibit higher achievement in the latter than predicted by the former. The reverse is true for many other countries. This paper commences by extracting the inter‐country variation in a composite of various widely‐reported, non‐income‐based well‐being indices not accounted for by variations in income pre capita. This extraction is interpreted inter alia as a measure of non‐economic well‐being. The paper then looks at correlations between this extraction and a number of new or less widely‐used well‐being measures, in an attempt to find the measure that best captures these achievements. A number of indicators are examined, including measures of poverty, inequality, health status, education status, gender bias, empowerment, governance and subjective well‐being.     

INCOME DISTRIBUTION AND ECONOMIC CHANGE IN PARAGUAY, 1972–88

The author reconstructs the income distribution of families in Paraguay for 1972, 1982, and 1988 by aligning three different urban household surveys with two farm income and two land tenure studies within a national accounts framework. He finds, first, a narrowing disparity between average family incomes in agriculture and non-agriculture in the recent decade, and, second, a steady widening in the agrarian distribution in contrast to a more stable non-agricultural distribution. The "cross-over" of the Paraguayan agricultural distribution from one of greater to lesser equality than the non-agricultural distribution is also found for a number of other recent cases and confirms Kuznets' speculation about the North American data. In the Paraguay experience, the "cross-over" may be due to the deepening cleavage between the commercial minifundia and the modernizing latifundia in the areas of new settlement. Paraguay's countrywide distributions are also compared to other Latin American economies of similar income level and agricultural shares.     

产权管制放松与中国经济转轨绩效

基于信息成本约束的政府放松对分散决策单位的产权管制会带来资源配置的激励机制和行为角色的重大变化。由于市场分散性决策的信息成本过高成为政府资源权利配置的约束条件,所以政府应逐渐放松对配置资源权利管制的范围,并让位于分散决策单位进行产权运用和调配。产权管制放松对经济转轨绩效的影响显著,是提高中国经济绩效的关键因素。     

从投入产出视角看城乡经济关系的发展与演变

利用矩阵分解技术,证明了农业经济产出过程农业内部乘数效应、外部乘数效应和城市涓滴效应共同决定。在对北京1985—2007年的投入产出分析的基础上,对城乡经济关系得出新的理解：在城镇化和市场化初期,农业经济的大部分收益来自于城镇的涓滴作用;随着城镇飞速发展,城乡二元结构对比强烈,农业的绝大部分收益来自农业内部;最后,在食品安全、生态保育和一系列社会问题以及经营者在农村寻求经济机会的推动下,农业和城市经济开始结合,城市反哺农业。研究表明,在各个时期,农业经济的发展在很大程度上依赖于城市经济,在市场化初期这种程度在60%—70%左右,而在今后的城乡一体化发展阶段,农业的绝大部分收益会来自于城市经济的涓滴作用,农业的食品、生态和社会功能应摆在优先重要位置。     

REVISED REAL CANADIAN GNP ESTIMATES AND CANADIAN ECONOMIC GROWTH, 1870–1926

Revised Canadian real GNP estimates for the 1870–1926 period, based on the nominal GNP estimates constructed by M. C. Urquhart and on a variety of sector-specific price indexes, are presented below. The construction of this revised real GNP series allows for the creation of real output estimates for the major sectors of the Canadian economy as well as for a new implicit price index series. These revised estimates cast new light on our present understanding of Canadian economic growth and reinforce the view that the Canadian wheat boom probably played an important and positive role in the process of Canadian economic development.