Trade openness and income inequality in China and the SAARC Region

The paper empirically examines the effects of trade liberalisation on income inequality in China and the South Asian Association for Regional Cooperation countries. Panel data analysis is conducted for the period of 1973 to 2012. The results show that liberal trade policies have increased income inequality in these countries. These results are robust to alternative liberalisation measures. The control variables used have differing effects on income distribution. Per capita income has an increasing effect on income inequality, while education, financial development, financial openness, democracy, and government size are shown to reduce income inequality. These outcomes can be expected to have important policy implications for the use of trade liberalisation in these countries.     

The spatial effects of trade openness: a survey

This paper surveys the literature on the implications of trade liberalisation for intra-national economic geographies. Three results stand out. First, neither urban systems models nor new economic geography models imply a robust prediction for the impact of trade openness on spatial concentration. Whether trade promotes concentration or dispersion depends on subtle modelling choices among which it is impossible to adjudicate a priori. Second, empirical evidence mirrors the theoretical indeterminacy: a majority of cross-country studies find no significant effect of openness on urban concentration or regional inequality. Third, the available models predict that, other things equal, regions with inherently less costly access to foreign markets, such as border or port regions, stand to reap the largest gains from trade liberalisation. This prediction is confirmed by the available evidence. Whether trade liberalisation raises or lowers regional inequality therefore depends on each country’s specific geography.     

Can trade liberalisation in South Africa reduce poverty and inequality while boosting economic growth? Macro–micro reflections

South Africa is trapped in a cycle of modest growth, unacceptable poverty levels and record unemployment. This has led to renewed interest on the relationship between macro (growth) and micro (poverty and distribution) issues. This paper uses a macro–micro tool that couples a computable general equilibrium model with microsimulation models to examine the impact of further unilateral trade policy reforms on growth, poverty and welfare. Trade liberalisation alone has very minimal short-run macroeconomic consequences while its long-term impacts are positive and magnified by technical factor productivity (TFP) effects. Trade liberalisation has no appreciable impact on poverty in the short run even if we allow for trade-induced TFP increases. In the long run, however, poverty reduces even in the case when we do not allow for TFP increases. Trade liberalisation policy has been found to be progressive despite the low level of tariff protection remaining in South Africa.     

Poverty in Indonesia 1984–2002: the impact of growth and changes in inequality

This paper examines the growth elasticity of poverty across three development episodes in Indonesia between 1984 and 2002, after controlling for inequality. It relies on estimation of panel data from the National Socio-Economic Survey conducted by the central statistics agency. Contrary to expectations, the growth elasticity of poverty was virtually indistinguishable across the three development episodes – a period of far-reaching policy liberalisation (1984–90); a second period of slower liberalisation (1990–96); and the period of recovery from the Asian financial crisis (1999–2002). Growth was pro-poor in all three periods, while the impact of growth on poverty was either augmented or offset by changes in inequality, depending on the period. Only during the first liberalisation period did a reduction in inequality serve to augment the impact of growth on poverty.     

Trade liberalization and income inequality: The case for Pakistan

Trade liberalization policies have been adopted by many developing countries to increase economic growth and reduce poverty. While the positive relationship between trade liberalization and economic growth is generally well accepted, the impact of trade liberalization on poverty and income inequality is still unclear. The objective of this paper is to use real data and real trade agreements of the state of Pakistan, to examine the predictions made by trade models about the impact of trade liberalization on income inequality. To illustrate, the impacts of several alternative bilateral and regional free trade agreements are simulated on household income and income inequality in Pakistan. The results show that trade liberalization does not always lead to a decline in income inequality in the short run. Trade agreements that do improve income equality, favor agriculture and often hinge on a decline in urban and non-farm household income. In the long run, changes in income equality are more positive, suggesting that efforts might best be applied towards improving the mobility of labor and capital.     

Trade openness and household welfare within a country: A microeconomic analysis of Vietnamese households

The positive effects of trade liberalisation on several dimensions of poverty have initiated studies of the trade–poverty relationship. Trade liberalisation accompanies institutional reforms that help to reduce institutional barriers against the poor. This study examines the impacts of trade openness and institutional reforms on rural household welfare at the provincial level through the analysis of the determinants of welfare of rural households in Vietnam. The study employs a model of micro-determinants of growth and tests it on the data from the Vietnam Household Living Standards Surveys (VHLSSs) of 2006 and 2010. What makes the study different from some other studies of the same vein is that it attempts to directly capture the institutional effect on welfare. The study finds that, in the provinces with high institutional reforms and trade openness, the welfare of rural households improved. Institutional reforms in Vietnam appeared to be sluggish in the late 2000s. In particular, both access to land and lower informal charges were the important determinants of welfare improvement over time. These findings suggest that Vietnam should maintain its development by accelerating the process of institutional reforms, thereby helping poor households to improve standards of living.     

INDONESIAN TRADE LIBERALISATION: ESTIMATING THE GAINS

Indonesia has undergone comprehensive trade liberalisation by participating in multilateral and regional trade arrangements and by conducting unilateral liberalisation. This paper evaluates the different paths of liberalisation the country has followed, and measures their effects on the economy. It considers the impact of several liberalisation scenarios: unilateral liberalisation; regional liberalisation through APEC (Asia Pacific Economic Cooperation) and AFTA (the ASEAN Free Trade Area); and multilateral trade liberalisation through the Uruguay Round (UR). The results show that the full implementation of UR and APEC liberalisation would greatly benefit Indonesia, and that unilateral liberalisation, carried out in conjunction with the UR commitment, would lead to large welfare gains. On the other hand, the creation of AFTA is expected to add little to welfare in Indonesia or in the other ASEAN member countries.     

Liberalisation and Financial Sector Competition: A Critical Contribution to the Empirics with an African Assessment

This paper investigates how financial, trade, institutional and political liberalisation policies have affected financial sector competition in Africa using updated data to appraise second‐generation reforms. The “freedom to trade” and “economic freedom” indices are employed. Hitherto, unexplored financial sector concepts of formalisation, semi‐formalisation, informalisation and non‐formalisation are also introduced. The following findings are established. First, relative to money supply, (i) with the exception of the economic freedom mechanism, liberalisation policies have generally decreased the growth of the formal financial sector to the benefit of other financial sectors; (ii) apart from the foreign direct investment and economic freedom channels, liberalisation policies have been fruitful for semi‐formal financial development at the cost of other financial sectors and; (iii) with the exception of economic freedom, both the informal and non‐formal sectors have developed owing to liberalisation to the detriment of the formal financial sector. Second, relative to gross domestic product, the semi‐formal, informal and/or non‐formal financial sectors have also generally improved as a result of liberalisation. Policy implications are discussed.     

Dynamics of Growth,Poverty and Inequality: A Panel Analysis of Regional Data from Thailand and the Philippines*

Using panel data for provinces compiled from household expenditure microdata, the present paper empirically investigates the relationships among growth, poverty and inequality in Thailand and the Philippines. The empirical model avoids the potential bias due to the fact that the entire distribution of individual‐level consumption changes over time and empirical variables for growth, poverty and inequality are often compiled from the consumption distribution. The system generalized method of moments estimation results strongly suggest that inequality reduced the growth rate of per‐capita consumption, and that differences in inequality explain a substantial portion of the Philippine–Thai difference in growth and poverty reduction since the late 1980s.     

FORMAL–INFORMAL ECONOMY LINKAGES AND UNEMPLOYMENT IN SOUTH AFRICA

South Africa's high unemployment and small informal economy has been attributed to barriers to entry in informal labour markets. We develop a general equilibrium model based on a typology of informal activities that captures formal/informal linkages in product and labour markets. Simulations reveal that trade liberalisation increases formal employment, hurts informal producers, and favours informal traders and may explain the dominance of traders instead of producers. Wage subsidies also raise employment but further heighten competition for informal producers. Cash transfers favour informal employment, albeit with a fiscal burden. Results confirm the role of formal/informal linkages and product markets in explaining policy outcomes.     

Trade Liberalization,Economic Restructuring and Urban Poverty: The Case of China*

Increased trade openness and rapid market-oriented transformation have largely altered the patterns of wealth accumulation and wealth distribution in post-reform China. In the present paper, with the help of Chinese provincial level data over the period of 1986 to 2000, simultaneous equations estimation and generalized method of moment techniques are applied to investigate the relationship between trade and poverty in urban China. Empirical results suggest that China's trade liberalization helps to reduce urban poverty both directly and indirectly through its favorable impacts on economic growth.     

Robust Estimates of Changes in Poverty and Inequality in Post‐Independence Namibia

We estimate changes in the distribution of household consumption expenditure in Namibia since independence in 1990 and the effects on poverty. To produce comparability between two household surveys, we use survey‐matching techniques, and we apply the framework of stochastic dominance to test the robustness of our results. The results reveal a significant decrease in the poverty headcount over the period and small but insignificant decreases in the country's extremely high levels of inequality. Decomposition analysis shows that poverty reduction in Namibia is largely driven by growth in mean incomes rather than redistribution. Even so, there have been important changes in inequality among different social groups especially as educational attainment has replaced ethnicity as the main determinant of between‐group inequality.     

BUILDING AND LINKING A MICROSIMULATION MODEL TO A CGE MODEL FOR SOUTH AFRICA

This paper examines the microeconomic effects of macroeconomic policies or shocks in South Africa. In particular, the paper considers the effects of macroeconomic policies on poverty and inequality by building and linking a microsimulation (MS) model to a Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) model. In the South African context, where poverty and inequality are at high levels, this novel approach enables us to identify the winners and losers of any policy change, so that the impact on poverty and inequality can be assessed in detail.     

Impacts of trade liberalisation on aggregate import in Bangladesh: An ARDL Bounds test approach

Bangladesh has been liberalising its trade regime extensively since 1992 in order to achieve higher trade performance and GDP growth. However, despite the long period of liberalisation, imports are still growing faster than exports, increasing the trade deficit. Trade liberalisation is considered a crucial contributory factor. The paper examines the impact of trade liberalisation on the aggregate import in Bangladesh, using the ARDL Bounds Test approach with annual time series data from 1972–1973 to 2004–2005. Empirical results suggest that trade liberalisation through reduction of the import duty rate increases the aggregate import substantially in the short run, but insignificantly in the long run. Trade liberalisation using simplification of non-tariff measures shows a significant but low positive impact on the aggregate import in the long run. Liberalisation interaction with price decreases imports slightly hence improves the trade balance, while interaction with income increases imports slightly hence worsens the trade balance. An increase in imports is mainly stimulated by an increase in income. Moreover, higher income elasticity compared to price elasticity indicates that an effort to maintain imports at the desired level by increasing import duty could be counter balanced and ineffective. Therefore, a consistent policy to promote not only consumption of domestically produced products, but investment, production, and backward linkage industries is essential in order to improve the trade balance and GDP growth in Bangladesh.     

Poverty and Inequality Maps in Rural Vietnam: An Application of Small Area Estimation

The objective of the present paper is to estimate poverty and inequality for rural Vietnam at different levels of aggregation by combining the Vietnam Household Living Standard Survey from 2006 and the Rural Agriculture and Fishery Census from the same year. Using the small area estimation method, estimates at the regional, provincial and district level are produced, and both expenditure and income based measures are considered. It is found that all provinces across the country have experienced a noticeable reduction in rural poverty during the period 1999–2006. Some of the largest reductions in poverty are observed for provinces with poverty rates close to the national average. The poorest provinces are experiencing reductions in poverty, albeit at a more modest pace. Provinces and districts with a larger poverty reduction in the period 1999–2006 tended to have a lower level of inequality in 2006. Results based on expenditure poverty estimates are found to be very similar to those based on income poverty estimates.     

Tracking wage inequality trends with prices and different trade models: evidence from Mexico

Mexican wage inequality rose following Mexico’s accession to the General Agreement on Tariffs and Trade/World Trade Organization in 1986. Since the mid-1990s, however, wage inequality has been falling. Since most trade models suggest that output prices can affect factor prices, this paper explores the relationship between output prices and wage inequality. A Salter–Swan trade model with firm heterogeneity driven by variations in the relative price of tradable relative to non-tradable goods can explain the decline in wage inequality. The paper compares this model’s predictions with Mexican inequality statistics using data on output prices, census data, and quarterly household survey data. In spite of the model’s simplicity, the model’s predictions match Mexican variables reasonably well during the years when wage inequality fell.     

THE DETERMINANTS OF FINANCIAL DEVELOPMENT: INSTITUTIONS, OPENNESS AND FINANCIAL LIBERALISATION

This paper provides new evidence that sheds light on the influence of institutional quality, trade openness and financial liberalisation on financial market development, using data from 27 economies (the G-7, Europe, East Asia and Latin America) during 1980-2001. The dynamic panel data analysis results demonstrate that real income per capita and institutional quality are statistically significant determinants of banking sector development and capital market development. The trade openness, however, is more prominent in promoting capital market development. In terms of financial liberalisation, the empirical results suggest that domestic financial sector reforms tend to promote banking sector development, whereas stock market liberalisation is potent in delivering stock market development. Nevertheless, the financial liberalisation programmes are more responsive in developed economies.     

What’s trade got to do with it? Relative demand for skills within Swedish manufacturing

What’s Trade Got to Do with It? Relative Demand for Skills within Swedish Manufacturing. — This paper seeks to identify the contribution of trade and technological change to the increase in inequality between skilled and unskilled workers in Sweden since the 1970s. An empirical approach is adopted which allows for the outsourcing of the low-skill parts of the production chain to low-wage locations and is applied to detailed industry and bilateral trade data, the latter distinguishing between low-wage sources of imports and OECD countries. The paper finds that, in contrast to previous studies, trade with low-wage countries may have contributed to the rise in inequality in Swedish manufacturing. The empirical results also suggest that the increased use of technology also played a role in creating greater inequality between skilled and unskilled workers in Sweden, with the magnitude of this impact increasing in the 1990s.     

Do International Remittances Affect Poverty in Africa?*

Abstract: International remittances flowing into developing countries are attracting increasing attention because of their rising volume and their impact on recipient countries. This paper uses a panel data set on poverty and international remittances for African countries to examine the impact of international remittances on poverty reduction in 33 African countries over the period 1990–2005. We find that international remittances—defined as the share of remittances in country GDP—reduce the level, depth, and severity of poverty in Africa. But the size of the poverty reduction depends on how poverty is being measured. After instrumenting for the possible endogeneity of international remittances, we find that a 10 percent increase in official international remittances as a share of GDP leads to a 2.9 percent decline in the poverty headcount or the share of people living in poverty. Also, the more sensitive poverty measures—the poverty gap (poverty depth) and squared poverty gap (poverty severity)—suggest that international remittances will have a similar impact on poverty reduction. The point estimates for the poverty gap and squared poverty gap suggest that a 10 percent increase in the share of international remittances will lead to a 2.9 percent and 2.8 percent decline, respectively, in the depth and severity of poverty in African countries. Regardless of the measure of poverty used as the dependent variable, income inequality (Gini index) has a positive and significant coefficient, indicating that greater inequality is associated with higher poverty in African countries, much in conformity with the literature. Similar results were obtained for trade openness. In the same vein, per capita income has a negative and significant effect on each measure of poverty used in the study. Our results also show that inflation rates positively and significantly affect poverty incidence, depth and severity in Africa. In all three poverty measures, the dummy variable for sub‐Saharan Africa is strongly positive, and strongly negative for North Africa. The policy implications of these results are discussed.     

Trade Liberalization in Thailand: Income Distributional Impact and Financing Problem*

The relationship between industrial protection and income distribution has been of considerable interest among economists. Although the literature generally focuses on the returns to primary factors of production as measures of income distribution, this paper attempts to clarify the relationship in terms of poverty and income inequality. Simulation results of a general equilibrium model based on Thai data show that a move toward free trade would lead to a more equal distribution of income. However, it would also lead to a government budget deficit. The way the government chooses to finance the deficit could have important consequences for income distribution and economic growth.