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We assess monetary equilibrium theory by focusing on its foundation—price stickiness—and answer several ancillary questions. Prices are sticky at times. Contra monetary equilibrium theorists, this is not a reason to advocate an issuance of fiduciary media to counteract the effects of a sluggish price adjustment process. Issuances of fiduciary media will breed negative effects, primarily via wealth redistributions, faulty interest rate signals and exacerbated business cycles. Allowing the price level to adjust to maintain monetary equilibrium provides for fewer detrimental effects than adjusting the supply of credit.  相似文献   

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In their recent article in the Quarterly Journal of Austrian Economics, Bagus and Howden (2010) present “quibbles” with fractional-reserve free banking. Specifically, they raise what they call “unaddressed issues” in this system, with a particular emphasis on Selgin (1988). We deem their arguments to be more substantial than “quibbles” and see them as part of a longstanding debate about fundamental aspects of monetary theory. We respond to their objections and attempt to specify how debate between the two sides might proceed more productively.  相似文献   

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This is a reply to Geoffrey Hodgson's Comment on an earlierpaper by Caldwell (Hodgson on Hayek: a critique). Though certainareas of agreement are noted, differences in interpretationconcerning Hayek's views on the Malthus–Darwin relationship,on cultural evolution, on the extent to which Hayek may be characterisedas an ontogenist, and on methodological individualism remain.  相似文献   

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This paper attempts to reconcile the high estimates of price stickiness from macroeconomic estimates of a New-Keynesian Phillips curve (NKPC) with the lower values obtained from surveys of firms’ pricing behaviour. This microeconomic evidence also suggests that the frequency with which firms adjust their prices varies across sectors. Building on the insights of Carvalho (2006), we present Monte Carlo evidence that suggests that in the presence of this heterogeneity estimates of the NKPC obtained using conventional methods, such as GMM, are likely to considerably overstate the degree of aggregate price stickiness. Furthermore, if roundabout production is a characteristic of the economy the NKPC will falsely suggest that a sizeable fraction of prices are indexed to past inflation. These problems arise because of a type of misspecification and a lack of suitable instruments.  相似文献   

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This paper evaluates the inertial inflation hypothesis for Brazil. The hypothesis posits that indexation created a feedback mechanism such that one-time supply shocks were fully transmitted into permanent changes in inflation. A theoretical model is used to show that this outcome is based on the assumption of perfect price flexibility. However, with price stickiness indexation does not produce inertial inflation. The degree of inertia is then compared for two periods: one without indexation (1945–1963), and one with indexation (1969–1985). Finally, vector-autoregressive representations are estimated for the latter period, allowing for price stickiness. The empirical results do not support the hypothesis.  相似文献   

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By finding small forecastable variability of future policy rates by highly smoothed central bank's endogenous interest rate trajectory, I suggest that market's failure to predict large portion of variability in future rates does not always imply limited policy inertia.  相似文献   

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The paper investigates price formation in a decentralized market with random matching. Agents are assumed to have subdued social preferences: buyers, for example, prefer a lower price to a higher one but experience reduced utility increases below a reference price that serves as a common fairness benchmark. The strategic equilibrium reflects market fundamentals, but it is markedly less sensitive to the buyer–seller ratio near the fair price benchmark. Prices may be sticky around very different reference levels in markets with otherwise identical fundamentals. The implied history dependence turns out to be mitigated rather than exacerbated by friction.  相似文献   

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This paper presents sufficient conditions for the existence of non-degenerate equilibrium price dispersions in economies with sequentially searching consumers. This existence result is obtained by fully utilizing the fixed-point property of equilibrium price dispersions. Compared with the existing literature, the formal framework used in this paper is very general. Consequently, the results of the paper are valid for a large class of economic models.  相似文献   

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Summary. Bick (1987,1990) and He and Leland (1993) demonstrated that not every arbitrage-free Markovian diffusion price process is consistent with an equilibrium approach. We propose a unified framework for these results and we derive a new martingale characterization of equilibrium.  相似文献   

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This paper departs from the established tradition of equilibrium inventory theory by examining the relationship between inventories and market prices when production is instantaneous but distribution is costly. Inventory holdings are not buffer stocks and do not facilitate production smoothing; rather, production variability exceeds the variability of final sales. Voluntary holdings of marketable finished goods are not restricted to occasional “speculation” during periods of unexpectedly low demand, but may persist even when capital losses are anticipated. In these respects, the paper reconciles important features of the inventory decision problem with the results of modern investment theory.  相似文献   

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Price dispersion arises despite perfect information about prices. In equilibrium the higher capacity firm adopts a high-price, high-availability strategy, the lower capacity firm adopts a low-price, low-availability strategy, and consumers are more likely to shop at the high-price firm.  相似文献   

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It is proved that the neutrality proposition for anticipated monetary policy fails, when markets do not continuously clear and prices partly adjust in accordance with rationally anticipated disequilibrium. The model exhibits non-uniqueness, but all solutions are non-neutral.  相似文献   

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Summary. Price bubbles in an Arrow-Debreu equilibrium in an infinite-time economy are a manifestation of lack of countable additivity of valuation of assets. In contrast, the known examples of price bubbles in a sequential equilibrium in infinite time cannot be attributed to the lack of countable additivity of valuation. In this paper we develop a theory of valuation of assets in sequential markets (with no uncertainty) and study the nature of price bubbles in light of this theory. We define a payoff pricing operator that maps a sequence of payoffs to the minimum cost of an asset holding strategy that generates it. We show that the payoff pricing functional is linear and countably additive on the set of positive payoffs if and only if there is no Ponzi scheme, provided that there is no restriction on long positions in the assets. In the known examples of equilibrium price bubbles in sequential markets valuation is linear and countably additive. The presence of a price bubble means that the dividends of an asset can be purchased in sequential markets at a cost lower than the asset's price. We present further examples of equilibrium price bubbles in which valuation is nonlinear, or linear but not countably additive.  相似文献   

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Monetary policy and price level determinacy in a cash-in-advance economy   总被引:15,自引:0,他引:15  
Summary The paper considers the determinacy of the equilibrium price level in the cash-in-advance monetary economy of Lucas and Stokey (1983, 1987), in the case of deterministic fundamentals. The possibilities both of a multiplicity of perfect foresight equilibria and of sunspot equilibria are considered. Two types of monetary policy regimes are considered and compared, one in which the money supply grows at a given exogenous rate (that may be positive or negative), and one in which the nominal interest rate on one-period government debt is pegged at a given non-negative level. In the case of constant money growth rate regimes, it is shown that one can easily have both indeterminacy of perfect foresight equilibrium and existence of sunspot equilibria; indeed, in the case of negative rates of money growth (as called for by Friedman (1969)), both types of indeterminacy necessarily occur. On the other hand, sufficient conditions for uniqueness of equilibrium (and non-existence of equilibria other than a deterministic steady state) are also given, and a class of cases is identified in which a sufficiently high rate of money growth guarantees this. Thus there may be a conflict between the aims of choosing a rate of money growth that results in a high level of welfare in the steady state equilibrium and choosing a rate that makes this steady state the unique equilibrium.) In the case of the interest rate pegging regimes, sufficient conditions are given for uniqueness of equilibrium (and impossibility of sunspot equilibria), and it is shown that these necessarily hold in the case of any low enough nominal interest rate. Thus the nominal interest rate peg allows simultaneous achievement of price level determinacy and a high level of welfare in the unique (steady state) equilibrium.In this paper I consider the consequences of alternative choices of the monetary policy regime for the determinacy of the rational expectations equilibrium value of money, and in particular for the existence or not of sunspot equilibria, i.e., rational expectations equilibria in which fluctuations in the price level occur in response to random events that represent no change in economic fundamentals, simply due to self-fulfilling revisions of people's expectations. I am interested in particular in making the point that a consideration of the complete set of possible equilibria associated with a given policy regime may alter one's evaluation of the relative desirability of alternative policies, relative to the conclusion that one might reach if one considered only a single possible equilibrium associated with each policy regime (perhaps a unique equilibrium involving a minimum set of state variables). In view of this I give particular attention to policy regimes of types that have sometimes been advocated as ways of reducing the inefficiency associated with a rate of return differential between money and other financial assets, and show that policies that might otherwise be desirable (policies that make possible a more desirable equilibrium than would otherwise be possible) can have the unfortunate consequence of rendering equilibrium indeterminate and making possible equilibrium fluctuations in response to sunspot events.Two classes of policy regimes are considered in particular: on the one hand, alternative constant rates of growth or contraction of the money supply, financed through lump sum taxes or transfers, with zero net government assets at all times; and on the other, alternative constant nominal interest rate pegs, to be maintained through open market operations between money and interest-bearing debt, with an exogenously fixed level of net transfer payments. The first class of policies is considered because of Friedman's (1969) well-known proposal that a constant contraction of the money supply of this sort would be welfare improving. I find that while thestationary equilibrium associated with the Friedman regime achieves the maximum possible level of utility for the representative consumer, and while the level of utility associated with stationary equilibrium may be monotonically decreasing in the rate of money growth, lower rates of money growth (in particular, rates near that called for by Friedman) are associated with indeterminacy of equilibrium and the existence of sunspot equilibria, while these problems need not arise in the case of higher rates of money growth.The second class of policies is considered because they represent an obvious alternative approach to the elimination of the same rate of return differential with which Friedman is concerned. Achievement of permanently low nominal interest rates through a simple interest rate peg is not often advocated; one reason is that it is often asserted that such a policy must result in price level indeterminacy. In fact, I find that if the interest rate pegging regime is properly specified, it results in aunique rational expectations equilibrium, regardless of the level at which interest rates are to be pegged. Thus not only does the interest rate peg not result in price level indeterminacy but it allows nominal interest rates to be maintained permanently at a level lower than that which can be obtained through a policy regime of the first sort without creating price level indeterminacy. It would hence appear, at least in the case of the kind of economy modeled here, that interest rate pegging is a more reliable way of trying to reduce the inefficiency associated with consumers being forced to economize on liquidity.This paper represents a revision of Woodford (1988). I would like to thank Leonardo Auernheimer, Buz Brock, Willem Buiter, Peter Howitt, Teh-Ming Huo, David Laidler, David Levine, Bennett McCallum, and an anonymous referee for helpful comments, and the National Science Foundation for research support.  相似文献   

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An optimizing model of a small open emerging market economy (SOEME) with dualistic labor markets and two types of consumers, delivers a tractable model for monetary policy. Differences between the SOEME and the SOE are derived. Parameters depend on features of the labor market and on consumption inequality, and affect the natural interest rate, terms of trade and potential output. The supply curve turns out to be flatter and more volatile, with a larger number of shift factors, including policy-determined terms of trade. A simple basic version of the model is simulated in order to compare different policy targets in response to a cost shock. Flexible domestic inflation targeting gives the lowest volatility although there are trade-offs. Exchange rate volatility is relatively lower but still makes a major contribution to controlling inflation. Flexible CPI inflation targeting performs better when combined with some kind of managed floating. Inflation targeting has to be flexible. With more backward-looking behavior the policy response to a shock is reduced.  相似文献   

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