Trade in information technologies and changes in the demand for occupations

I use data from the World Input-Output Database and show that trade in information technologies (IT) has a significant contribution to the growth in foreign intermediate goods in the 2001–2014 period. China has strongly contributed to the rise in trade in IT and has become one of the major foreign suppliers of IT. I merge these data with the EU KLEMS database and EU Labour Force Survey and obtain a dataset of 12 European countries and 2001–2007 period. I show that IT imports from China are associated with lower IT prices in European countries. The fall in IT prices has increased the demand for high wage occupations and reduced the demand for medium wage occupations. Nearly 25% of the variation in the demand for occupations can be attributed to the trade with China.     

University population expenditure and its impact on real estate demand: Evidence from South Africa

ABSTRACT

A university campus has an ability to attract consumers from outside the region who spend locally to the benefit of the local economy and in particular the real estate market. This article identifies the real estate benefit to the host city from staff and student spending. The Potchefstroom Campus of the North-West University in South Africa is used as an example and real estate demand modelling is applied to estimate the real estate space demand benefit to the host city. In 2016, the R2.2 billion expenditure by staff and students spilled over into a healthy demand for floor space in the city. A steady increase in on-campus, full-time students and a corresponding increase in staff numbers will continue to benefit the demand for real estate. However, this close relationship between university enrolments and activity in the real estate market could similarly be constrained if spending is under pressure.     

The impact of oil price shocks and exchange rate changes on import demand elasticities

Zusammenfassung Die Auswirkung von ?lpreis-Schocks und Wechselkurs?nderungen auf die Elastizit?t der Importnachfrage.—Man kann zeigen, da? ?lpreisSchocks und Wechselkurs?nderungen die Elastizit?t der Nachfrage nach Nicht-?l-Importen über ihre Auswirkung auf das Realeinkommen und die Zusammensetzung der Gesamtimporte beeinflussen. Insbesondere ist es wahrscheinlich, da? ein steigender ?lpreis und ein sinkender Wechselkurs Preis- und Einkommenselastizit?ten erh?hen und umgekehrt. Diese theoretischen Schlu?folgerungen werden empirisch durch Daten aus den USA gestützt. Sowohl die Einkommensals auch die Preiselastizit?t der Importnachfrage nach Produkten au?er Erd?l stiegen nach dem ersten ?lpreis-Schock stark an und fielen dann wieder mit der hohen Dollaraufwertung im Jahre 1980.

---

Résumé L’effet des chocs du prix pétrolier et les variations des taux de change sur les élasticités de la demande de l’importation.—Dans cette étude, il est montré que les chocs du prix pétrolier et les variations des taux de change se répercutent sur les élasticités de la demande de l’importation non-pétrolière via leur effet sur le revenu réel et via la composition des importations totales. En particulier, l’augmentation du prix pétrolier et la baisse du taux de change peuvent élever les élasticités de prix et de revenu et vice versa. On a affirmé ces conclusions théoriques par une analyse empirique avec des données pour les Etats Unis. Tous les deux, l’élasticité de revenu et de prix de la demande d’importation non-pétrolière, augmentent drastiquement après le premier choc du prix pétrolier et tombent après la forte réévaluation du dollar en 1980.

---

Resumen El impacto de shocks del precio de petróleo y de movimientos de la tasa de cambio sobre las elasticidades de demanda de importaciones.—Los shocks del precio de petróleo y los movimientos en la tasa de cambio pueden afectar a las elasticidades de demanda de importaciones exceptuando el petróleo, através de su impacto sobre el ingreso real y la composición de las importaciones totales. En particular, un precio de petróleo en aumento y una tasa de cambio en descenso probablemente aumentarian las elasticidades-precio e -ingreso y viceversa. Estas conclusiones teóricas son confirmadas empíricamente con datos de los EE UU. Ambas elasticidades, ingreso y precio, de la demanda de importaciones exceptuando el petróleo aumentan drásticamente después del primer shock del precio de petróleo y después disminuyen otra vez con la fuerte revaluation del dólar en 1980.

     

Aggregate demand and supply

This paper is part of a broader project that provides a microfoundation to the General Theory of J. M. Keynes. I call this project "old Keynesian economics" to distinguish it from new-Keynesian economics, a theory that is based on the idea that to make sense of Keynes we must assume that prices are sticky. I describe a multi-good model in which I interpret the definitions of aggregate demand and supply found in the General Theory through the lens of a search theory of the labor market. I argue that Keynes' aggregate supply curve can be interpreted as the aggregate of a set of first-order conditions for the optimal choice of labor and, using this interpretation, I reintroduce a diagram that was central to the textbook teaching of Keynesian economics in the immediate post-war period.     

Socio-demographic dynamics and household demand

The relationship between household characteristics and household expenditure in the United States is explored. "The basic hypothesis of this paper is that socio-demographic characteristics of households are important determinants of their expenditure patterns as are price and income variables."     

Income concentration and market demand

We analyze the effects of income concentration and income dispersionon market demand and its elasticity. We show that, followingan increase in income concentration towards the middle (measuredby variations in mean preserving spread), the increase in demandfaced by firms which serve at the margin middle income consumers,is associated with an increase in price elasticity—accordingly,the positive effects of the size of the market becoming widerare amplified by a higher degree of competition. Our resultshold for a large number of possible income distributions.     

Potential demand and external trade

Summary Both in theoretical and empirical studies of international trade relative prices play a dominant role. Standard international trade theory asserts that under certain conditions the price mechanism may lead to an equilibrium between demand for and supply of goods from and to different countries. For short periods, some relevant conditions may not be fulfilled; in that case other adjustments such as changes in non price conditions may equate demand and supply or, alternatively, disequilibria may exist. Direct statistical evidence on non price conditions, excess demand and excess supply is scarce.This paper describes a partly indirect approach of the not price conditioned trade fluctuations. The basic model assumes that these fluctuations are largely dependent on pressure of demand, which is defined as the tension between potential demand and potential supply. In this way both exports and imports are divided in a potential component, dependent on relative prices, and a pressure induced component. The other main assumption is that actual domestic demand changes according to the demand function. Combining these relations, potential demand for domestic products is the sum of domestic demand and potential export demand minus potential import demand. Potential supply is assumed to be a constant fraction of the exogeneously given production capacity.The model is used for an iterative approximation of the changes in potential demand and pressure of demand for the Netherlands. For this purpose estimations for actual exports and actual imports of commodities are derived from the model. In the initial estimations, potential demand is approximated by means of actual demand, during consecutive rounds the results of the preceding stages are used. After three rounds the coefficients are stable. The values calculated for the yearly changes in potential demand are for most years in concordance with a priori expectations. For the reference period, the explanatory power of the computed pressure of demand is either of about the same quality as that of conventional pressure variables or better.     

Energy consumption by Russia’s population and service industry in the context of global trends

This paper analyzes energy consumption by population and service industry in developed countries and Russia in 1990–2005. The main global trends in energy consumption by population and service industry are shown. The compliance of Russia’s energy consumption figures to these trends is determined. The results of predictive estimates of the dependence of per capita energy consumption by population and service industry on the level of economic development are presented.     

The response of aggregate production to fertility-induced changes in population age distribution

With a particular focus upon long-term supply effects, the authors explored the implications of different population age distributions for the productive capacity of an economy. A multilevel aggregate production process was specified, plausible values assigned to its parameters, and steady-state solutions obtained under a range of alternative fertility assumptions. The theoretical model was calibrated to conform with Canadian data and published estimates of age-sex substitution elasticities. The study found productive capacity to be related to age distribution, although the output effects exceed 8%, regardless of the structure of the economy, only when total fertility rate is less than 1.6 or well above 3.0; within the range of variation, productive capacity and output per capita are lower for both younger and older populations; altering the elasticity of substitution between different tasks has negligible effects upon the sensitivity of the economy to changes in age distribution; altering the elasticity of substitution between different age-sex groups for a given task has a markedly greater effect; introducing either increasing or decreasing returns to scale has only a minor effect upon the sensitivity of the economy to changes in age distribution; and marginal products are quite sensitive to changes in age distribution for both younger and older workers, but far less sensitive for middle-aged workers.     

Explaining inflation in the period of quantitative easing in Japan: Relative-price changes,aggregate demand,and monetary policy

Concentrating on the period of quantitative easing in Japan, this paper reexamines the correlation between the asymmetry of sectoral relative-price changes and the aggregate inflation rate. This correlation is widely interpreted as evidence that short-run inflation is determined by supply-side factors; however, we study whether, in addition to the inflation rate, monetary policy and aggregate demand explain it. Using producer price index data, we show, first, that the positive and significant effect of relative-price change asymmetries on inflation is not robust with respect to various indicators of asymmetry. Second, using a VAR framework, we find that aggregate demand robustly affects the measures of asymmetries, which raises doubt about whether they can be interpreted as pure supply-side indicators. Third, in addition to the indirect effect via measures of asymmetries, demand directly affects inflation. Thus, we reject the claim that the recent disinflation/deflation period in Japan can be understood as primarily a supply-side phenomenon and suggest that the main driving force was demand, whereas supply and monetary policy were of lesser importance.     

Black abortion demand

Conclusion This study estimates the demand for abortion by black women. The empirical results find that black abortion demand is price inelastic, negatively related to unemployment conditions, and positively related to the presence of state Medicaid and a college education. These results are consistent with the findings in prior studies of all childbearing women. The only two findings at odds with those of all childbearing women were that black women's abortion demands are considerably more responsive to changes in income and do not depend on marital status.     

Foreign-affiliate presence and skilled labour demand

This paper investigates the effect of inward foreign investment on the relative employment of skilled labour. The extensive review of the empirical evidence shows that the results seem to be country-specific. Using Canadian industry-level panel data, the paper shows that most Canadian industries have experienced skill upgrading, and that foreign investment, as measured by FDI or majority ownership, has contributed to this development. Moreover, notwithstanding higher regulatory restrictions on foreign investment into Canadian services industries, foreign investment has had a similar impact on skill upgrading across both the services and non-services sectors. Finally, offshoring is found to only have a positive significant impact on skill upgrading in the services sector.     

Cross-sectional aggregation and demand system estimation

The views expressed herein are the authors and do not necessarily reflect the views of Loyola College of Maryland, the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System, or their staffs.     

Kalecki and Marx on effective demand

Conclusion Whereas Marx and Kalecki shared a broad vision of the capitalist system, the convergence of their theories occurred mainly on the ground of effective demand.Marx furnished Kalecki with the idea that deficiencies in aggregate demand are rooted in the normal workings of the capitalist system, but he did so without providing any theoretical demonstration of this proposition. Kalecki was confident, however, that he had solved Marx's unresolved problems by proving that the equations that determine the level of total output are contained in the scheme of extended reproduction.Whether Marx would have considered Kalecki's solution appropriate for the system inCapital is quite another matter. As explained above, Kalecki shifted the emphasis from the production of surplus value to the realization of surplus value and from the conditions of exploitation to the conditions of the market. It is a change that Marx would have had difficulties in accepting. Indeed, it was precisely his reluctance to follow this route that steered Marx away from an attempt at solving the problem of effective demand; a problem he skirted when he was in the process of formulating his schemes of reproduction.If one adds Kalecki's interest in market prices and his distaste for the labor theory of value, it would be difficult to avoid the conclusion that Kalecki was neither a faithful disciple of Marx nor a single-minded articulator of his economic theories. It has been argued that this was precisely Kalecki's strength [Robinson, 1979, p. 253]: With the light that Sraffa has thrown on the theory of value and Kalecki on the process of realization of the surplus, we can develop a complete system, not ofneo-Marxism but ofintelligible Marxism.An earlier version of this paper was presented at the Twenty-Sixth Atlantic Economic Society Conference, October 6–9, 1988, Philadelphia, Pennsylvania.     

Money demand and stabilisation in Zimbabwe

During the 1980s the potential instability of Zimbabwe's unsustainablyhigh budget deficit was reduced by the smooth transfer of resourcesfrom the private to the public sector via the domestic financialsystem, which affected private demand for financial assets.Import, exchange and price controls operated to suppress private-sectordemand. This led to the build-up of private savings, which wason-lent to the government via liquid asset requirements andthe crowding out of domestic deposits in the nonbank privatesector's portfolio by government securities. This article usesJohansen's procedure for analysing cointegration to model thedemand for real money balances in Zimbabwe, in order to determinethe extent to which these constraints on the domestic assetmarket suppressed the demand for money in Zimbabwe.     

Metal demand and consumption in Russia

The metal need formation mechanism is determined by the development of reproduction processes. This article assesses the active mechanism of meeting the Russian economy’s need for metalline products. Analyses have shown that the export-oriented development of production processes in resource supplying sectors of the economy promoted the formation of an import-oriented investment model. Current developments contain an economic growth crisis potential due to an accruing economic imbalance.     

能源贸易与中国能源安全

随着中国经济高速增长和城市化进程加快所引致的能源需求急剧上升,受国内资源特别是石油资源短缺约束能源产供能力短期内难以大幅度增加情况下,能源供求矛盾日益突出,石油进口对外依赖度也随之节节攀升。为此,本文主要通过对中国能源贸易发展状况、能源安全现状以及影响能源安全的制约因素等进行深入分析,寻求加快中国能源贸易发展、确保能源安全、促进经济社会可持续发展的基本思路与对策。