Estimating systematic continuous-time trends in recidivism using a non-Gaussian panel data model

We model panel data of crime careers of juveniles from a Dutch Judicial Juvenile Institution. The data are decomposed into a systematic and an individual-specific component, of which the systematic component reflects the general time-varying conditions including the criminological climate. Within a model-based analysis, we treat (1) shared effects of each group with the same systematic conditions, (2) strongly non-Gaussian features of the individual time series, (3) unobserved common systematic conditions, (4) changing recidivism probabilities in continuous time and (5) missing observations. We adopt a non-Gaussian multivariate state-space model that deals with all these issues simultaneously. The parameters of the model are estimated by Monte Carlo maximum likelihood methods. This paper illustrates the methods empirically. We compare continuous time trends and standard discrete-time stochastic trend specifications. We find interesting common time variation in the recidivism behaviour of the juveniles during a period of 13 years, while taking account of significant heterogeneity determined by personality characteristics and initial crime records.     

公共服务供给、空间溢出与新型城镇化发展质量

本文利用省级面板数据实证研究了公共服务供给对新型城镇化发展质量的作用机理及其空间效应。研究结果表明,公共服务供给和新型城镇化发展质量存在显著的空间相关性,且公共服务供给对新型城镇化发展质量的空间溢出效应日趋增强。教育具有显著的正向空间溢出作用,交通基础设施的空间溢出效应为负但并不显著,医疗具有较为明显的空间抑制作用。进一步进行区域异质性分析发现,公共服务供给对新型城镇化的直接效应和空间效应在三大地区存在明显的差异性。因此,不同区域要基于公共服务供给及其空间溢出效应的特点制定新型城镇化高质量发展政策措施,包括优化公共交通基础设施服务功能、提高人力资源配置效率、改善区域性医疗卫生条件等。     

The Spatial Durbin Model and the Common Factor Tests

Abstract

The spatial Durbin model occupies an interesting position in the field of spatial econometrics. It is the reduced form of a model with cross-sectional dependence in the errors and it may be used as the nesting equation in a more general approach of model selection. Specifically, in this equation we obtain the common factor tests (of which the likelihood ratio is the best known) whose objective is to discriminate between substantive and residual dependence in an apparently misspecified equation. Our paper tries to delve deeper into the role of the spatial Durbin model in the problem of specifying a spatial econometric model. We include a Monte Carlo study related to the performance of the common factor tests presented in the paper in small sample sizes.     

What factors drive the price–rent ratio for the housing market? A modified present-value analysis

We consider which factors determined the price–rent ratio for the housing market in 18 U.S. metropolitan statistical areas (MSAs) and at the national level over the period of 1975–2014. Based on a present-value framework, our proposed empirical model separates the price–rent ratio for a given market into unobserved components related to the expected real rent growth and the expected housing return, but is modified from standard present-value analysis by also including a residual component that captures non-stationary deviations of the price–rent ratio from its present-value level. Estimates for the modified present-value model suggest that the present-value residual (PVR) component is always important and sometimes very large at the national and MSA levels, especially for MSAs that have experienced frequent booms and busts in the housing market. In further analysis, we find that house prices in MSAs that have larger PVR components are more sensitive to mortgage rate changes. These are also the MSAs with less elastic housing supply. Also, comparing our results with a recent statistical test for periodically-collapsing bubbles, we find that MSAs with large estimated PVR components are the same MSAs that test positively for explosive sub-periods in their price–rent ratios, especially during the 2005–2007 subsample. Our approach allows us to estimate the correlation between shocks to expected rent growth, the expected housing return, and the PVR component. We find that the expected housing return and movements in the PVR component are highly positively correlated implying an impact of the expected housing return on house prices that is amplified from what a standard present-value model would imply. Our results also show that most of the variation in the present-value component of the price–rent ratio arises due to the variation in the expected housing return.     

Matching,human capital,and the covariance structure of earnings

This paper tests the theory of job matching and the theory of human capital by examining the covariance structure of residuals from a typical Mincer log earnings equation using methods of moments techniques. Job matching theory predicts that we should observe an eventual decrease in the contribution of the job-match component in the residual variance as workers acquire tenure on the job. This prediction is mildly supported by the data. On the other hand, human capital theory predicts a trade-off between job-specific intercept and slope parameters. This prediction, which is not shared by the theory of matching, is strongly supported by the data. This is especially true for men with at least a high school degree.     

Fixed Effects and Random Effects Estimation of Higher-order Spatial Autoregressive Models with Spatial Autoregressive and Heteroscedastic Disturbances

Abstract

This paper develops a unified framework for fixed effects (FE) and random effects (RE) estimation of higher-order spatial autoregressive panel data models with spatial autoregressive disturbances and heteroscedasticity of unknown form in the idiosyncratic error component. We derive the moment conditions and optimal weighting matrix without distributional assumptions for a generalized moments (GM) estimation procedure of the spatial autoregressive parameters of the disturbance process and define both an RE and an FE spatial generalized two-stage least squares estimator for the regression parameters of the model. We prove consistency of the proposed estimators and derive their joint asymptotic distribution, which is robust to heteroscedasticity of unknown form in the idiosyncratic error component. Finally, we derive a robust Hausman test of the spatial random against the spatial FE model.     

Different effects of technological progress on China's carbon emissions based on sustainable development

In this paper, we respectively decompose and study different effects of technological progress on carbon emissions in China based on the combination of the logarithmic mean Divisia index method, the Solow residual model, and spatial econometrics. Furthermore, we propose an improved approach to estimate the rebound effect index. By comparing the different effects of technological progress on carbon emissions, our results indicate that China's overall domestic technological progress reduced its carbon emissions over this period. As for the rebound effect index, the estimated results are higher than in previous studies because of the spatial rebound effect, which was ignored by previous studies. Regionally, although the eastern region had high rebound effects, the western region is at the greatest risk from the rebound effects. Finally, we present specific environmental policy proposals for China's sustainable development based on empirical results.     

When does shared leadership matter in entrepreneurial teams: the role of personality composition

Although prior research has investigated a number of conditions under which shared leadership in teams may improve team performance, team composition variables have been left unexplored. Using a sample of 144 teams in a technology incubator in China, this study explored the moderating effects of personality diversity on the relationship between shared leadership and entrepreneurial team performance. Results indicate that shared leadership improves entrepreneurial team performance; the strength of the relationship, however, depends on the level of team personality diversity. More specifically, when relationship-oriented personality diversity is high, the shared leadership—team performance relationship is stronger. These findings advance research in entrepreneurship, groups and teams, and shared leadership, and provide practical implications as well.     

Identifying contagion

Identifying contagion effects during periods of financial crisis is known to be complicated by the changing volatility of asset returns during periods of stress. To untangle this we propose a GARCH (generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity) common features approach, where systemic risk emerges from a common factor source (or indeed multiple factor sources) with contagion evident through possible changes in the factor loadings relating to the common factor(s). Within a portfolio mimicking factor framework this can be identified using moment conditions. We use this framework to identify contagion in three illustrations involving both single and multiple factor specifications: to the Asian currency markets in 1997–1998, to US sectoral equity indices in 2007–2009 and to the CDS (credit default swap) market during the European sovereign debt crisis of 2010–2013. The results reveal the extent to which contagion effects may be masked by not accounting for the sources of changed volatility apparent in simple measures such as correlation.     

Regional energy efficiency and its determinants in China during 2001–2010: a slacks-based measure and spatial econometric analysis

Carbon dioxide (CO₂) emissions are largely driven by fossil fuels. To reduce CO₂ emissions in China, it is important to determine influential factors of energy efficiency. This paper introduces a slacks-based measure window analysis approach to evaluate regional dynamic energy efficiency during 2001–2010, and then explores energy efficiency determinants by considering spatial effects, which is conducted based on spatial econometric models. The empirical results show that there exist evident spatial correlations between regional energy efficiencies in China. We find that, there exist evident disparities in cumulative effects of energy efficiency among the eastern, central and western areas. Interestingly, significant energy efficiency spatial spillovers can be clearly found between regions within the western area and across the eastern and western areas. It is found that, energy structure, energy price, railway transportation development and R&D stock are significant at national level. However, energy structure and railway transportation development are insignificant in the central and western areas, while energy price and R&D stock are insignificant in the eastern and central areas, respectively. Industrial structure and urbanization level are found to be insignificant at national level, but industrial structure is significant in the eastern and western areas, and urbanization level is significant in the central and western areas. Surprisingly, industrial structure and urbanization level are found to have positive impacts on energy efficiency in the western area. In addition to regional disparities and local conditions, policies making should take efficiency spatial spillovers into consideration. Several interesting policy implications are achieved.     

Gender differences in the effect of downward influence strategies on perceived stress and general-health: The mediating role of organizational justice

This study examined the effects of supervisor’s downward influence strategies (DIS) on subordinates’ perceived stress and general-health. The influencing effects of DIS were also analyzed in the light of the mediating effects of organizational justice dimensions, namely, distributive justice (DJ), procedural justice (PJ) and interactional justice (IJ). Responses were collected from three organizations through survey method (Males, N = 91; females, N = 74). Gender differences were observed in the perceptions of DIS which affected perceived stress and general-health conditions of both male and female employees. Further, the results revealed that supervisor’s task-oriented DIS (e.g., negative sanctions) increase perceived stress and negative health conditions in both genders. Supervisor’s people-oriented DIS (e.g., ingratiation) lowered perceived stress and triggered botheration-free existence in the employees. The mediation analysis of justice dimensions indicated that, in the case of males, IJ and PJ positively mediate people-oriented DIS effects on stress and general health. However, in females, supervisor’s ingratiation and positive sanctions helped in ameliorating stress through their positive PJ perceptions. Strong indirect effects of supervisor’s task-oriented strategy (e.g., rationality) were observed on male’s stress and general-health through IJ. On the other hand, supervisor’s rationality and assertiveness reduced female employees’ perceived stress through their PJ and DJ perceptions, respectively.     

How to achieve integration on the human side of the merger

Blake and Mouton use an actual case of a successful merger to show how their Interface Conflict-Solving Model, based on behavioral science principles, can be used to achieve integration. The authors outline the history of the two organizations, give illustrations of the kinds of changes that were necessary to more from the actual state of affairs within each organization to the conditions needed for synergy, and explain how the merging organizations collaborated to develop a model for the interface. The merger is evaluated from the perspective of what happened during the two years following the merger. Blake and Mouton also elaborate on the dynamics of group behavior that they took into consideration in designing the Interface Conflict-Solving Model: the effects of group members' shared history; the natural tensions that typically exist between groups that have a functional relationship and misperceptions and distortions that arise as a result of these tensions; and win-lose competitiveness instead of a win-win mentality as a shared expectation. Finally, the authors show how shared participation can overcome inappropriate and debilitating competition.     

Diverging trends in health care use between 2010 and 2016: Evidence from three groups of transition countries

This paper investigates changes in health care use in 28 transition countries using data on more than 60,000 households from the “Life in Transition” surveys II and III conducted in 2010 and 2016. Following the literature, the transition countries are divided into three groups – Eastern Europe, Southern Europe and the non-Baltic states of the former Soviet Union with Mongolia – based on the speed of their transformation. Regressions based on Andersen’s conceptual framework show no difference in public health care use between the three groups in 2010. By 2016, however, the share of households using the public health care system dropped by remarkable 17.1–22.2% points in Southern Europe and 13.5–27.1% points in the former Soviet Union with Mongolia compared to Eastern Europe. Moreover, by 2016, the probability of a household using the private health care system (with no use of public health care) in Southern Europe and the former Soviet Union was 7.5–18.7% points higher than in Eastern Europe, whereas it was 2.9–6.8% points lower than in Eastern Europe back in 2010. The analyses indicate that differences in household characteristics, as well as perceived corruption and quality of public health care, help to understand these diverging trends in health care use in the three groups of transition countries between 2010 and 2016.     

Inequality and ability

This paper examines how much the increasing “residual inequality” in the United States can be explained by increasing returns to cognitive skills. Also, this paper uses selection-correction techniques to estimate the latent population distribution of unobservable skill within three occupational sectors, and breaks down the leftover “residual” term into a “general” unobservable component and a sector-specific unobservable component. The results indicate that sector-specific skills have played only a minor role in the inequality trends. Increasing “residual inequality” is mostly characterized by an increasing importance of general skills, either IQ or the general unobservable skill, within all three occupations.     

Maximum likelihood estimation and Lagrange multiplier tests for panel seemingly unrelated regressions with spatial lag and spatial errors: An application to hedonic housing prices in Paris

This paper proposes maximum likelihood estimators for panel seemingly unrelated regressions with both spatial lag and spatial error components. We study the general case where spatial effects are incorporated via spatial errors terms and via a spatial lag dependent variable and where the heterogeneity in the panel is incorporated via an error component specification. We generalize the approach of Wang and Kockelman (2007) and propose joint and conditional Lagrange multiplier tests for spatial autocorrelation and random effects for this spatial SUR panel model. The small sample performance of the proposed estimators and tests are examined using Monte Carlo experiments. An empirical application to hedonic housing prices in Paris illustrate these methods. The proposed specification uses a system of three SUR equations corresponding to three types of flats within 80 districts of Paris over the period 1990-2003. We test for spatial effects and heterogeneity and find reasonable estimates of the shadow prices for housing characteristics.     

On the cost-benefit of the regionalisation of the National Health Service

In this paper we analyse in formal terms the desirability of the regionalisation of a National Health Service. The policy consists of a devolution process, i.e. the increase in the health services provision to be decided by a region and financed by an increase in its revenues. The change is a marginal one, as it regards the part of supply of the health services exceeding a minimum standard, which for purposes of equity is maintained uniform in the national territory. As the central government is responsible for this component of the provision of health care (a federal “mandate”), the level of the said component is chosen by this authority and financed by federal taxation. Moreover, the government also applies an equalisation scheme based on the difference between a standard level of tax revenues and the revenues which the region is deemed able to raise for this purpose. Within the theoretical context of welfare improving reforms with distortionary taxation, we derive two conditions which focus on the regional, as well as the social, convenience of regionalisation. Received: May 5, 1999 / Accepted: January 21, 2000     

A multivariate unobserved component analysis of US housing market

This study explores price dynamics and price relationships in the US housing market with a focus on four regions: Northeast, Midwest, South, and West. It applies a multivariate state-space model to identify the common trends and common cycles in US regional markets. The study finds that the principal source of secular price variability in the Northeast and West markets is due to two common stochastic trends, while a large share of transitional price variability in the Northeast, West and Midwest originates from three common stochastic cycles. The study estimates the relationships between the common unobserved components and economic variables and finds that unemployment, federal funds rate, corporate default risk, economic expansion, unanticipated inflation in the construction market are significant underlying economic phenomena that impact the evolution of the common movements in both the short run and the long run housing dynamics. Authorship is equally shared between the authors.     

Spatial Practices and the Institutionalization of Water Sanitation Services in Southern Metropolises: The case of Jakarta and its Kampung Kojan

This article examines the spatial practices and forms of institutionalization in the water and water sanitation sector in Jakarta, capital of Indonesia, and especially in Kampung Kojan in the Kalideres subdistrict of Jakarta. To this end, it develops a three‐layered analytical framework viewing the city as a multi‐scalar socio‐ecological system in which different forms of human–water relations and their institutionalization are found. Particular attention is given to informality in this system and how it interacts with ‘regular’ state and corporate market sector practices. Within these interactive dynamics, informality is not only understood as a survival strategy but also as a creative practice connecting various social‐ecological opportunities, traditional and contemporary technologies and modes of institutionalization to each other. Ongoing institutionalization processes in the formal and informal economy, as well as between them, are analysed. Opportunities to integrate and regularize the diverse water sanitation services into community‐led closed water–wastewater cycles capable of ensuring public health and sustaining a bio‐hydrological balance at the local level are explored.     

Prediction in the Panel Data Model with Spatial Correlation: the Case of Liquor

Abstract

This paper considers the problem of prediction in a panel data regression model with spatial autocorrelation in the context of a simple demand equation for liquor. This is based on a panel of 43 states over the period 1965–1994. The spatial autocorrelation due to neighbouring states and the individual heterogeneity across states is taken explicitly into account. We compare the performance of several predictors of the states’ demand for liquor for 1 year and 5 years ahead. The estimators whose predictions are compared include OLS, fixed effects ignoring spatial correlation, fixed effects with spatial correlation, random-effects GLS estimator ignoring spatial correlation and random-effects estimator accounting for the spatial correlation. Based on RMSE forecast performance, estimators that take into account spatial correlation and heterogeneity across the states perform the best for forecasts 1 year ahead. However, for forecasts 2–5 years ahead, estimators that take into account the heterogeneity across the states yield the best forecasts.     

Health and political regimes: Evidence from quantile regression

This study investigates how political regimes affect health conditions such as infant and child mortality rates and life expectancy using data from 180 countries observed between 1960 and 2013. Panel quantile regression is used to examine the effects at different intervals throughout the distribution of health outcomes. The estimation results indicate that democracy has significant positive effects on health outcomes and that its impacts are greater when health outcomes are worse. These results are robust to different democracy and health indices. The effects of different types of democracies and dictatorships are also considered, that is parliamentary, mixed (semi-presidential) and presidential democracies, and civilian, military and royal dictatorships. The parliamentary form of democracy has the largest positive impact on health outcomes at the worst quantile of health outcomes, although the difference in the impacts of the three types of democracies is not necessarily large. Furthermore, all types of dictatorships have a negative impact on health outcomes, with military dictatorship having the worst outcome when health outcomes are worse. Finally, the effects of democratization on health outcomes are significantly positive when the health outcomes are worse.