小公司效应投资策略在中国证券市场适用性分析

根据CAPM模型β成为通常收益率的解释因素,但自20世纪80年代以来,许多学者发现β缺乏对收益率的解释能力。1981年班茨和其他学者发现"小公司一月份效应",即小公司有一系统较高的收益,尤其是在每年的一月份。这一现象与传统的CAPM公式相背。以2007-2009年小盘股指数周收益率数据对中国股市进行了检验,发现中国股市存在小公司效应,但其原因值得进一步分析。通过这一研究深化了对股市有效性的认识。     

中国股市的星期效应——基于电子行业的视角

本文就中国主板市场中电子行业是否存在显著的日历效应进行了实证研究。本文通过基于t分布下EGARCH-M模型,考察了这个行业是否存在星期效应,并分析其具体特征及共同点。考虑到我国股市的特殊性,选取的样本区间为2000年1月4日至2020年2月25日。较强的证据表明这个行业共同存在显著为负的“星期四效应”。     

模糊性程度和模糊性厌恶对中国股市的影响研究

本文采用南方中证500ETF的数据,研究了模糊性程度和模糊性厌恶程度对中国股市的影响。研究结果表明,模糊性与模糊性厌恶程度升高会影响市场回报率,但对市场波动率、期限利差和违约利差并无显著影响。此外,市场回报率突然发生变化,会扩大模糊性和模糊性厌恶程度。对此,本文对中国股市的发展提出了相关建议。     

沪深股市收益变化的“月份效应”研究——基于沪深3418只股票的实证分析

在经典金融理论框架下,股票价格变化无章可循。然而,实证研究发现,大多数国家（或地区）的股市存在“月份效应”。检验股市“月份效应”并分析其存在规律,能够为投资者决策及完善股市监管提供参考,从而促进资本市场健康平稳发展。本文从理论和实证的角度探讨沪深股市收益变化的“月份效应”及其影响因素。基于Python程序设计语言,对沪深股市3418只股票的“月份效应”进行循环遍历并逐个检验,得到41016个检验结果,研究结果表明：沪深股市的“月份效应”主要体现在“二月正效应”和“六月负效应”,其影响因素包括板块、行业、公司财务基本面等,沪深股市的“月份效应”体现了相对健康的投资环境,但不同板块“月份效应”的影响因素也差异明显。基于此,应谨慎采用“月份效应”策略,谨防“月份效应”过度炒作行为,为中小微企业直接融资提供更好的政策环境。     

中国对金砖国家与发达国家的股市联动关系研究

文章通过建立二元GARCH-BEKK模型,分三个阶段研究中国股市与其他金砖国家股市以及五个发达国家股市的联动关系。结论为:中国股市和其他金砖国家股市之间的联动关系在东南亚金融危机结束的一段时间内较强,在中国QFII制度启动后增强,而在2008年金融危机后减弱。中美股市的联动性一直存在并不断增强,而中国股市与其他发达国家股市联动性较弱,而且还有下降的趋势。总体来说,金砖国家股市对中国股市的影响较大,而发达国家股市与中国股市的联动效应小。     

基于EGARCH模型的中国股市周内效应实证研究

随着中国股市的不断发展壮大,股市收益率的波动性研究正受到越来越多的关注。本文以中国沪深股市为研究对象,在虚拟变量模型的基础上,运用指数广义自回归条件异方差模型(EGARCH)对其进行了实证分析,考察其是否存在周内效应。选取的数据包括上证综合指数、深证成份指数、巨潮40指数和巨潮小盘指数。研究表明沪深股市均表现出显著的周一效应,对于不同规模的公司,研究发现小市值公司的周一效应更为显著。     

中国股票市场“月度效应”研究

“月度效应”是违反市场有效性的异常现象之一。西方股票市场的“月度效应”一般表现为“一月效应”。用ARCH类模型就中国股票市场是否存在“月度效应”进行了实证分析 ,发现一月和五月存在着明显的“月度效应” ,并做出了可能的解释。     

中国股票市场“周内效应”的实证分析

将从中国证券市场获得的样本数据分成两个阶段分别是牛市和熊市,然后分别进行检验。结果发现中国股票市场存在绝大多数发达国家股票市场和某些新兴股票市场所普遍具有的"星期一效应"。但有的情况下,中国股票市场并不存在显著的周内效应,与其他国家或地区的股市有着很大的差异,这表明中国股市至今还不够成熟。     

基于Rolling Regression及VAR-DCC-GARCH模型的股市时变协动研究——发达市场对中国大陆股市存在金融传染吗?

本文以2002年5月至2013年12月为研究区间,利用协整模型、滚动回归模型及VARDCC-GARCH模型对中国大陆股市与日本、香港、新加坡股市间的时变协动性进行了研究。结果表明:长期内,中国大陆股票市场与香港股市存在时变协整关系(截距与斜率均具有时变性),与新加坡股市存在着弱协整关系,但与日本股票市场不存在协整关系;中国大陆股市与香港股市、日本股市间的时变相关系数具有长记忆特征,而与新加坡股市时变相关系数并不具有持续性;亚洲发达经济体对中国大陆股市存在显著的金融传染效应。     

中国股票市场月份效应研究

文章选取2008年至今的沪深300指数市盈率,通过实证分析,研究了中国股票市场是否存在显著的"月份效应"。建立线性回归模型后得出:近十年来,中国股票市场已经告别了波动率显著不同的特点,逐步向平稳发展过渡。这得益于中国金融市场机制的完善、政府监管措施的规范及人民金融意识的提高。     

Foreign institutional investors and stock return comovement

We investigate whether foreign institutional investors facilitate firm-specific information flow in the global market. Specifically, using annual institutional ownership data from firms across 40 countries, we find that foreign institutional ownership is negatively associated with excess stock return comovement. Our results are more pronounced when foreign institutional investors originate from common-law countries and hold a large equity stake in invested firms; and when the invested firms are located in civil-law countries. Overall, the evidence suggests that foreign institutional investors from countries with strong investor protection play an important informational role in mitigating excess stock return comovement around the world.     

Foreign institutional investors and stock return comovement

We investigate whether foreign institutional investors facilitate firm-specific information flow in the global market. Specifically, using annual institutional ownership data from firms across 40 countries, we find that foreign institutional ownership is negatively associated with excess stock return comovement. Our results are more pronounced when foreign institutional investors originate from common-law countries and hold a large equity stake in invested firms; and when the invested firms are located in civil-law countries. Overall, the evidence suggests that foreign institutional investors from countries with strong investor protection play an important informational role in mitigating excess stock return comovement around the world.     

The conditional relationship between beta and returns: recent evidence from international stock markets

The risk–return relationship is one of the fundamental concepts in finance that is most important to investors and portfolio managers. Finance theory argues that the beta or systematic risk is the only relevant risk measure for investors. However, many studies have showed that betas and returns are not related empirically, no matter in domestic markets or in international stock markets. This paper examines the conditional relationship between beta and returns in international stock markets for the period from January 1991 to December 2000. After recognizing the fact that while expected returns are always positive, realized returns could be positive or negative, we find a significant positive relationship between beta and returns in up market periods (positive market excess returns) but a significant negative relationship in down market periods (negative market excess returns). The results are robust for both monthly and weekly returns and for two different proxies of the world market portfolio. Our findings indicate that beta is still a useful risk measure for portfolio managers in making optimal investment decisions.     

台湾观光相关类股投资人对开放陆客团体行事件之反应

利用事件研究法考察2008年5月22日台湾"交通部"拟定之"两岸周末包机及大陆观光客来台方案"对台湾地区航空、观光及贸易百货上市、柜公司股票报酬率的冲击。实证结果表明:事件日前10日、前9日、前4日和前1日平均累积异常报酬率皆通过至少1%水平的显著性检验,表示在事件日前股市投资人对开放陆客团体行之预期已然形成;事件日后1日至后4日及后11日至后14日亦均通过至少5%水平的显著性检验,表示股市投资人对开放陆客团体行有相当强烈的正面响应。     

The Colombian Stock Market: 1930-1998

Abstract

This article studies the behavior of the stock market in Colombia with the information given by the Bolsa de Bogota Index (Indice de la Bolsa de Bogota, IBB). The index is analyzed from January, 1930 to December, 1998. The inflation rate covers the same period; the inflation rate as measured by the Consumer Price Index. The results of this analysis show that monthly and per annum return-nominal and real-are well below from the expected return of any financial investor. A first hypothesis to explain this is that the investor and entrepreneurs receive benefits that are non-measurable in terms of economic return. Also it can be said that inflation is negative to the return at the stock market, thus: the larger the inflation rate, the smaller the real return. It is shown that the market does not anticipate the future inflation, and of course it is not included in the actual price. Probabilities for selected real return values are presented. The probability to obtain a real return greater than 0% and other values (5%, 10%, 12% and 18%) as well, is much less than 50%. This might show that investing at the stock market is just gambling.     

股票市场发展与国家资源配置效率:基于股市信息效率视角的研究

中国股票市场发展已经经历20年的历程,很多方面都取得了巨大的发展成就,然而对于股票市场发展对中国经济增长是否产生了显著的正向促进作用,现有研究文献并没有达到一致结论.文章基于股价波动非同步性测度方法,从股票市场信息效率这一新的视角入手,实证检验股票市场发展与国家资源配置效率的因果影响关系,为这一领域研究提供了新的实证证据.实证结果表明:中国股票市场信息效率与国家资源配置效率显著正相关,且这种正相关关系在效益上升行业与下降行业没有显著差别,即高信息效率股票市场能引导社会在高资本回报率的行业内继续追加投资,在低资本回报率的行业内及时削减资本投入,从而提高资源配置效率.因此中国股票市场发展具有较好的经济效应,它对经济增长产生了显著正向促进作用.     

周期效应与中国股市之实证分析

本文认为,中国股市没有出现像美国股市那样的周末效应。本文并不证明中国股市就是个有效市场。它只能说明,在否定有效市场的诸多现象中,周期效应可以被排除。目前的中国股市既不是完全有效市场也不是完全无效市场,而是一个有一定有效性的市场。政策、公司业绩、信息、炒作、资金等因素都在影响中国股市。如果借助一些分析方法寻找价格被低估的证券,将可以为投资者获得超额收益。     

机构投资者类型对股市波动的影响

本文以2007-2010年我国资本市场的整个波动周期为考察期间,在考虑了变量内生性的问题的基础上,采用2SLS方法实证分析了机构整体持股对于股价波动的影响。研究发现:机构整体持股对股市波动的影响因不同的市场状态而具有非对称性,并可以用市场状态假说进行解释;在对于机构分类的实证研究中发现,在控制内生性情况下,同一类别的机构投资者对股市波动的影响是随着市场的变化而变化;同时,即使在相同的市场环境下,不同的投资者对市场波动的影响也不相同。因此,需要辨证认识各类机构投资者的作用,针对不同机构投资者的特征及不同的市场状态采取不同措施以稳定市场。     

The Business Cycle and Profitability of Trading Strategies

Recent studies show that investor participation in the stock market rises during economic expansion and drops in economic recession. When investor participation is high, investors’ cognitive and behavioral biases are likely to have a strong influence on stock prices. We consider four trading strategies that are based on well-known market anomalies and examine their profitability under different economic conditions. For all four strategies, the portfolios that are formed in the months when the economy is expanding obtain significant profits, whereas the portfolios formed in economic recession months are not profitable. This finding is robust to different ways of classifying recession months.     

Is Firm‐specific Return Variation a Measure of Information Efficiency?

The issue of whether firm‐specific return variation measures the private information reflected in stock returns or trading noise is controversial. Using a firm's geographic proximity to its investors as a proxy for a firm's private information, we investigate the relation between firm‐specific return variation and price informativeness. We find that firms located in metropolitan areas experience higher firm‐specific return variation and that holdings and trading by local institutional investors positively affect firm‐specific return variation. These findings suggest that higher firm‐specific return variation is indicative of more informative stock prices.