VALUING AND ACCOUNTING FOR LOAN GUARANTEES

To achieve certain policy objectives, governments frequentlyprovide private borrowers with loan guarantees that cover someor all of the risk that the borrower will be unable to repaythe loan. Such guarantees are extremely valuable, and theirvalue increases with the riskiness of the underlying asset orcredit, the size of the investment, and the duration of theloan. The flip side of a guarantee's value to a lender is itscost to the government. Such a cost is not explicit but is realnevertheless. When providing guarantees, governments thereforemust establish accounting, valuation, and risk-sharing mechanisms.This article describes methods of valuing guarantees; reportsestimates of the value of guarantees in different settings;and summarizes new methods of accounting designed to anticipatelosses, create reserves, and channel funds through transparentaccounts to ensure that the costs of guarantees are evidentto government decisionmakers.      

贷款安全规模通用模型研究

一国或一个厂商举债规模的大小都有一个客观界限,凡超越借款偿还能力举债或银行过度贷款,均可能引发债务危机或造成银行贷款损失.在当今借贷实践中除偿债率和债务率尚作一个国家外债规模合理性的测评指标外,对单个厂商借债规模合理性测评或银行贷款安全规模的界定问题迄今未能有效解决.基于此,本文拟根据贷款回归依存的主要经济因素,建立贷款安全规模的测定模型,为控制贷款规模、授信和完善贷款风险防范体系,提供一项综合性的测评工具.与现行贷款风险管理方法和贷款投放方式相比,该模型具有多元归一、结构严密,弥补缺陷、简便实用,口径统一、通用性强的特点.     

AN EXCHANGE RATIO DETERMINATION MODEL FOR MERGERS: A NOTE

One of the most important financial and economic issues involved in corporate mergers is the determination of the exchange ratio between the shares of the acquiring firm and the acquired firm. The model presented in theis paper is based on the dividend growth model. Since growth expectations are crucial in an exchange ratio negotiation, the model derived here, which explicitly incorporates these growth expectations, is relevant. In contrast, Larson and Gonedes' exchange ratio expressions are in terms of price-earnings multiples. The model presented here provides an exchange ratio expression for the buying firm and one for the selling firm. Both expressions are a function of one variable—the post-merger growth rate as perceived by each party. There are two important features of the model: (1) it provides boundary values for negotiation; and (2) it can be used to study the effect of firm characteristics on the bid-and-asked exchange ratios.     

THE TWO-STATE INTEREST RATE MODEL FOR PRICING BONDS: AN EMPIRICAL ANALYSIS

The two-state interest rate model is evaluated on the basis of its ability to price samples of government bonds. Its accuracy is shown to be comparable to that of a sophisticated continuous time model.     

国有股减持方案分析及其政策建议

<减持国有股筹集社会保障资金管理暂行办法>的出台,标志着国有股减持工作正式拉开了序幕.本文从我国证券市场国有股现状入手,结合国外国有股减持的目标,阐述了我国国有股减持的意义所在,从市场承受能力、国有股产权所有问题、持股成本、股权结构调整等方面分析了国有股减持面临的主要问题,并对<管理办法>中的三种减持方式进行了分析,最后以国有股减持应着力改善上市公司治理结构、保护各方参与者利益、实现减持所获资金的有效利用为原则,提出了完善相关法律法规、改革新股发行制度、明确国有股减持的领域、步骤及定价,综合平衡各方利益等政策建议.