中国股票市场流动性价值研究——双重上市A、B股经验证据

本文首先利用流动性综合测度指标,将证券交易数量、证券流动性水平及证券市场流动性水平引入到证券价格函数中,构建了证券价格差异的流动性模型,从流动性角度探讨证券价格溢价问题,在理论上证明了证券流动性价值的存在性。随后,本文利用A、B股股票实证分析证券流动性价值,实证结果表明,股票流动性水平与股票市场流动性水平可以解释A、B股价格差异,中国股票市场存在流动性价值,流动性价值受股票流动性水平、股票市场流动性水平以及股票交易数量影响。     

货币政策、股票流动性与股票价格暴跌风险

目前中国股市还存在较多制度性缺陷,股价波动频繁且暴跌风险较高。本文以2003年至2013年中国A股上市公司为样本,检验作为激发机制的货币政策以及作为外部生成机制的股票流动性对中国股票价格暴跌风险的影响。研究发现：股票流动性与公司股票价格暴跌风险具有显著的敏感性,即随着股票流动性的下降,公司股票价格暴跌风险显著上升;货币政策越宽松,股票价格暴跌的风险越大;而且宽松的货币政策增强了股票流动性与股票价格暴跌风险的敏感性。区分市场势态的进一步分析表明,市场为熊市时,股票流动性对股票价格暴跌风险的影响更显著,货币政策的放松越容易激化股票价格暴跌风险,且对股票流动性与股票价格暴跌风险的敏感性的放大作用更为突出。     

The liquidity of the London capital markets, 1825–70†

This article examines the liquidity of the London capital markets in the decades following the liberalization of UK incorporation law. Using comprehensive stock and bond data, we calculate a measure of market liquidity for the period 1825–70. We find that stock market liquidity trended upwards but bond market liquidity did not increase over the sample period. Stock market liquidity during our sample period was partially influenced by the bond market, rather than fluctuations in economic output. In our analysis of the cross‐sectional determinants of individual stock liquidity, we find that firm size and the number of issued shares were important determinants of liquidity.  Finally, we find little evidence of an illiquidity premium, which is consistent with the view that investors did not price liquidity in this nascent market.     

The impact of economic fundamentals on stock markets in southern Africa

The issue of whether stock markets reflect economic fundamentals or speculative bubbles is an important one for their potential role in allocating capital, and relates to a policy issue of whether stock markets should be encouraged in developing countries. This article examines the impact of both domestic and foreign economic factors on real stock market returns in three southern African stock markets – South Africa, Zimbabwe and Botswana, from 1985-95 – using cointegration and error correction techniques. It finds that, while in all cases stock markets are influenced by domestic economic growth, there are no common patterns beyond this. The influence of other domestic and economic variables depends on the size, openness and market-orientation of the individual economies, as well as the size and liquidity of the various stock exchanges. Where foreign economic variables are important, they appear to be those related to trade, rather than international capital flows, indicating that there is little integration of these capital markets, whether regionally or internationally.     

Stock Market Development, Liquidity Constraint and Investment: A Case of Korean Jaebol and Non-Jaebol Manufacturing Firms in the 1980s

The Korean stock market experienced sudden growth in mid-1986. Since then, Korean firms have begun to rely on the stock market as a reliable source of funds. This paper analyses the change in financing behaviour after the 1986 Korean stock market development. Many researchers argue that in developed countries, the liquidity constraint binds a firm's investment decisions. What then is the effect of liquidity on firms in developing countries? These issues will be examined by using a Tobin’s Q model of investment. A total of 171 Korean manufacturing firms, both Jaebol and Non-Jaebol, are investigated for the 1980s. Most empirical studies have not shown an economically large and significant Q effect when cash flow is used in the model. However, empirical results here show that with a strong liquidity effect, Q is large and statistically significant, implying a moderate adjustment cost.     

Corporate Governance and Corporate Bond Liquidity

Using a unique dataset of corporate bond trading information and corporate governance evaluation scores, this study examines the determinants of corporate bond market liquidity in Korea. In particular, this study explores whether corporate governance performance of a company influences liquidity of bonds issued by the company. The paper reports three important findings. First, the issue size and age of bond are important determinants of bond liquidity. Second, liquidity of corporate bonds is influenced by changes in macroeconomic conditions. Third, and most importantly, better corporate governance increases liquidity of corporate bonds. This result suggests that corporate governance is an important determinant of bond liquidity, as it lowers transaction costs by improving transparency and reducing asymmetry of information. This paper contributes to the literature by providing new evidence that corporate governance performance is an important determinant of liquidity in corporate bond markets.     

基于马尔可夫区制转移模型的流动性协动效应研究

历次金融危机都伴随着流动性水平的共同下降,流动性协动效应为金融危机提供潜在的动力.文章旨在研究个股与市场、行业与市场间的流动性协动效应的状态依赖特征;研究方法采用了 Markov 区制转移的向量自回归模型,随机选取了30只样本股与市场流动性水平作为研究对象;研究结果发现个股与市场流动性水平的协动性存在非对称效应,市场下跌时其协动效应更加显著,并对这一结果进行了稳健性检验.此外,基于Markov区制转移模型对行业间与市场间流动性协动效应进行研究,结果表明,在市场持续下跌时,行业与市场间以及行业之间均存在显著的流动性协动效应;然而,在非持续下跌过程中,行业间却存在流动性互补关系,并结合中国证券市场的实际情况分析了流动性协动效应产生的原因.     

流动性过剩与资产价格泡沫——基于中国数据的实证分析

流动性过剩已经成为我国宏观经济运行中的热点问题。流动性过剩是什么,流动性产生的根源有来自国际的因素,也有国内的因素。流动性过剩严重影响我国的宏观经济运行,推动CPI指数上扬,造成股票市场、房地产市场泡沫。本文通过建立计量经济模型,对流动性过剩与资产价格泡沫之间的相关性进行实证分析,并进一步分析流动性过剩的影响传导机制。     

中国股票市场流动性实证研究

采用指标体系的方法,研究中国股票市场的流动性。基于价差和深度的短期流动性研究表明,深度与价差成相反的变化模式,投资者通过调整价差和深度来提供流动性。基于换手率和修正后的马丁指数的长期流动性研究表明,沪深股市的流动性指标存在相关性,具有较强的联动性。其原因在于两个市场处于相同的经济环境及监管制度,且投资者具有同质性。     

中国银行体系流动性过剩测度与股票价格波动：1997～2007

1997年1月到2007年6月的实践证明,中国银行体系流动性和股票价格波动之间并不存在格兰杰意义上的因果关系,尤其是2005年6月到2007年6月股权分置改革基本完成后,银行体系流动性并不是股票价格上涨的直接原因,前者只是在资金层面为后者的上升提供了支持,即前者只是后者的必要条件。     

噪声交易与股票流动性:兼对“正(负)相关”理论的评析及“流动性黑洞”现象的解释

噪声交易与股票流动性都是行为金融研究的重点，但二者的相关性问题学界一直未能达成一致，"正负之争"不休。文章改进Kyle （1985）的假设，构建符合中国实际的流动性数理模型，模型表明：噪声交易与流动性负相关，且相关关系受信息不对称、风险厌恶度等因素的影响。进一步，文章以中国沪深300指数的成分股数据证实了"噪声交易-流动性"关系，发现其存在显著的月历效应和市场行情效应。文章对"正（负）相关"理论进行了梳理和评析，为争论的清晰化、明朗化做出贡献。     

中国股市非系统风险被定价的实证研究

以Campbell模型为基础,建立预测回归方程,利用1995至2005年沪、深两市的数据,从宏观角度研究中国股票市场非系统风险对市场超额收益率的预测关系。实证结果表明,非系统风险对市场超额收益率具有显著的正预测能力;在控制流动性效应后,结果具有稳健性;非预期市场流动性对市场超额收益率具有显著的正效应,而系统风险和预期市场流动性对市场超额收益率没有预测能力。这些结果表明非系统风险被定价,同时也可以为中国股票市场机构投资者热衷集中持股现象做出理论解释。     

Stock Performance and Intermediation Changes Surrounding Sustained Increases in Disclosure*

This paper investigates whether firms benefit from expanded voluntary disclosure by examining changes in capital market factors associated with increases in analyst disclosure ratings for 97 firms. The disclosure rating increases are accompanied by increases in sample firms' stock returns, institutional ownership, analyst following, and stock liquidity. These findings persist after controlling for contemporaneous earnings performance and other potentially influential variables, such as risk, growth, and firm size. While it is difficult to draw unambiguous causal conclusions, these results are consistent with disclosure model predictions that expanded disclosure leads investors to revise upward valuations of the sample firms' stocks, increases stock liquidity, and creates additional institutional and analyst interest in the stocks.     

流动性风险与资产定价:来自中国股市的证据

LCAPM（基于流动性风险的CAPM模型）是Acharya和Pedersen（2005，Journal of Financial Economics）提出的．它将流动性风险可能影响资产价格的多种方式纳入一个统一的框架。本文利用LCAPM对中国股市进行检验．在该模型中，证券的收益依赖于它的期望流动性及其与收益（包括个股与市场收益）之间的协方差。检验结果发现，我国股市的风险升水在大盘升降区间体现了不同的特征：无论在总区间还是分时段，LCAPM都能更好的拟合资产收益；在控制公司规模之后，效果依然稳健。这说明流动性在我国股市的资产定价上有重要影响。     

浅析流动性过剩背景下的股市泡沫

流动性过剩已成为中国经济发展中的一个热点问题.文章分析了形成流动性过剩的国际和国内两个方面的原因.对于流动性过剩导致了中国股市繁荣的现状,文章提出了防范股市泡沫的措施.     

Fragmentation and Market Quality: The Case of European Markets

This paper questions whether the proliferation of alternative trading venues in Western Europe after MiFID implementation in 2007 affected market quality. By means of a difference-in-differences analysis, we evaluate changes in market quality of stocks that initiated trading in Multilateral Trading Facilities (MTF) in relation to matched samples. Our analysis provides evidence that the overall liquidity (measured by transaction costs and price impact) and trading activity increased in the short term with trade initiation in MTF. Notably, we show that fragmentation did not cause lower price precision or informativeness, but some tests suggest that fragmentation correlates positively with volatility. The results of this study are stronger for stocks with greater propensity for MTF trade initiation, i.e. stocks with greater size and liquidity prior to that event. Interestingly, the impact on liquidity and trading activity varied across stock exchanges and timing of MTF trade initiation. As for long run effects, our results suggest an improvement of overall liquidity and a neutral effect on the trading activity of traditional exchanges.     

股指期货不同推出方式对股票市场的影响

本文构建一个多期理论模型研究股指期货以非预期方式推出的影响。本文比较了它和按确定时间表推出这两种方式对股票现货价格、流动性以及波动性的不同影响。在无其他冲击环境下,我们发现按确定时间表推出期货,市场的流动性与波动性将增加,另外股市会在期货推出后短期下行。而以非预期的方式推出期货对市场的流动性与波动性的影响要低于前一种方式,且股市在期货推出后将短期上行,然后回调。如果管理层的目标是使股指期货推出对市场流动性和波动性冲击最小化,那么选择以非预期的方式推出更为合适。     

我国黄金期货流动性与基差的动态关系研究

选取了我国黄金市场的三个主力合约,采用均值回复模型和Granger因果检验研究了我国黄金期货市场流动性与基差之间的动态关系,探讨资产的流动性对套利交易的影响,即高流动性是否有助于资产价格迅速回复至无套利水平。实证结果表明：（1）三个合约均值回复模型的回复速度均与其流动性成正相关关系;（2）在Granger因果检验表明,0812合约的基差和流动性之间存在着双向的Granger因果关系,0906与0912合约的流动性是基差的Granger原因,而基差不是流动性的Granger原因。本文的理论意义在于流动性与基差所表现出来动态关系在一定意义上验证了市场的有效性,即一价定律在我国黄金期货市场和现货市场基本成立,现实意义在于市场上的交易者可以通过流动性来预测基差,提高套期保值效率。     

基于流动性下的股市透析

自1999年开始,中国政府开始推出了一系列的管理规定,使得货币市场和资本市场开始有了一定的衔接,货币政策的传导机制逐渐影响资本市场的价格和波动性,随着经济和社会法制的发展和完善,两个市场间的相关性逐渐密切。2005年以来,我国货币市场的流动性问题广泛受到国内学者和专家的关注,目前存在的流动性过剩以及股市持续高涨,房价泡沫现象与日本危机前所出现的经济现象有极大的相似性,本文试图从定性分析的角度来说明流动性过剩现象传导机制下的中国股市和其预期。     

Excess Liquidity and Inflation Dynamics in China： 1997-2007

The surge in international capital inflows and the remarkable excess liquidity in China between 1997and 2007are examined in the present paper. It is shown that China＇s improved position in terms of foreign exchange purchases, ignited by huge foreign capital inflows, has effectively induced excess liquidity in China. More importantly, by developing an econometric madel for inflation and excess liquidity, the present study demonstrates that excess liquidity has imposed significant pressure on inflation in China over the past 10 years. This finding suggests that excess liquidity in China has not only contributed to the rise in stock prices and the real estate market boom, but also affected the consumer goods market. The potential transmission mechanism of liquidity-driven inflation and policy implications of the findings of this study are discussed.