Mindshift: The mental revolution we are in

It is by now a commonplace to say that today the world is in the midst of a revolution as profound as any we have ever experienced. It is, however, much less of a commonplace to specify precisely of what this revolution consists. The contention of this article is that the revolution is more than a mere shift in our industrial or technological base. Fundamentally, it is a change in underlying mental attitudes—how we conceive of the world. It is thus a shift in our values but at the same time much more basic than this alone.This article describes the nature of the change that is occuring in mental attitudes. However, it does not do so in a traditional way. Primarily, it does it by means of a fable. The reason is that the shift we are experiencing is also in part a shift in our aesthetic vision, that is, in the styles of discourse that we use to describe reality. In short, different conceptions of the world require different stylistic forms. The full nuances of a new era can not be captured by the forms of the past.     

Political risk analysis for Canada and Mexico

A new methodology for political risk analysis was developed and applied to Canada and Mexico. The ideas of an interdisciplinary team of corporate and country experts were obtained in mid-1982 via a two-round Delphi inquiry on socioeconomic change and a survey on business contingencies in Canada and Mexico. The information provided by the panelists was used to describe possible future conditions in Canada and Mexico in the context of alternative U.S. and international conditions.     

Improved rangeland management with an Earth Resource Survey system

Recent advances in communications and satellite technology now make it possible to provide large, synoptic imagery of the earth's surface at relatively low cost. This paper reports on acase study that was designed to estimate the benefits that might be realized by rangeland managers from an Earth Resources Survey system. Information needs and current practices are first discussed and then related to available remote sensing and data distribution techniques. The analysis showed that cost savings from an applications system would be broadly evident in the areas of resource re-allocation, range productivity, and livestock management. Depending upon the assumptions concerning the discount rate and factors affecting technological diffusion, total benefits were estimated to range from $38.7 million to $115.4 million over 10-year operational period.     

Reason's shadow: Notes on the psychodynamics of obstruction

The remarks that follow are made with regard to the behavior of leaders whose self-image is threatened by a variety of conditions comprising the world problematique. Of all those conditions, surely those associated with violence and warfare are the most threatening. I would speculate, therefore, that what I've written here is especially pertinent for deliberations on how to encourage peace and disarmament.While these remarks are focused on the behavior of leaders—especially those in government—they can hold, too, for those in the public who identify with those leaders…itself another psychodynamic process. Of course, the public's contexts differ so the degree of threat and response will differ, too. This is a matter for further attention.Moreover, self-images are usually rich in content and while some aspects are threatened, others may not be or, indeed, may be attracted by new rational ideas. The resultant struggle within the psyche complicates the overt expression of these unconscious conflicts.But these dynamics mirror those comprising the problematique, especially its expression around issues of war and peace. Therefore, psychodynamic matters deserve as much attention and utilization as we now give to conventional, indeed, often ritual means, masquerading as rationality, for dealing with violence and armaments.     

Forecasting the impact of new technologies on the future job market

This paper examines recent occupational projections in order to determine how new technologies will affect future job growth in the United States. The first part of the paper reviews the methodologies used to derive occupational projections, focusing on how adjustments for technological change are incorporated into the forecasts. The second part of the paper reviews the most recent projections produced by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics and compares them with projections produced by other organizations. The results reveal that neither high-technology industries nor high-technology occupations will supply many new jobs over the next decade. Instead, future job growth will favor service and clerical jobs that require little or no postsecondary schooling and that pay below-average wages.     

The brain, the mind, and the future

Within psychology, brain research, and the sciences generally there has been a greater emphasis on the investigation of phenomena in terms of present and past than in terms of the future. This restriction in time frame has led not only to a fragmentation of theory and research in all the sciences, but also, in a time of great social, political, and economic change, to a failure by social science to provide the kind of guidance through improved prediction that might help ease our passage through this global turbulence. To remedy this situation much more work is needed in the relevant areas of brain research, in a closely wedded psychology of consciousness and the mind as a whole, and eventually in artificial intelligence and systems analysis as a means of testing and advancing theory. This article examines the basis for such an advance in the work of Luria, Pribram, and others with the frontal brain; Sperry, Bogen, and others with brain hemispheric differences; and von Neumann and others in artificial intelligence and systems analysis. It examines the nature of the prediction task philosophically and psychologically, states a model for brain functioning and forecasting suggested by a synthesis of prior research, and reports the supporting evidence for this model from philosophy, psychology, cybernetics, and recent experimental and field studies. It closes with a consideration of needs for continuing research and the implications of advancement in this area for science and society.     

Who's talking about the future?: An analysis of the U.S. Presidents

What are people actually saying when they are talking and writing about the future? The paper rests on two premises; that the future is essentially a construct of human thought, and that one method of knowing the future is to carefully examine the language used when “the future” is being talked about. The 13 inaugural addresses of the U.S. presidents since 1933 are systematically examined for evidences of their author's future orientation. The paper provides both factual data about the future consciousness of our presidents over the past 50 years, and also demonstrates the use of linguistic analysis for forecasting the future.     

加州花园前史及其对现代园林的影响

加州花园及加州学派是美国现代风景园林设计实践 和理论的重要起源之一，并深刻影响了世界风景园林的发展方 向。追溯加州现代花园的前史，在分析加州的气候、地理及其 植物区系的基础上，梳理了从加州原住民时代、修道院时代、 墨西哥时代、淘金热时代、博览会时代、乡村时代到大萧条时 代的花园变迁史，并结合加州的植物园发展体系，指出加州花 园从前现代到现代的过程中传承和嬗变的特征及其影响。     

美国加州公立高等教育的办学特色及其启示

美国是世界上最发达的高等教育国家之一,而加州又是美国公立高等教育最发达的一个州,其教育质量和效率举世公认,是美国高等教育的缩影。文章作者通过对美国加州公立大学的走访和考察,了解了美国加州公立高等教育的基本情况,总结了其办学特色,并提出了铜陵学院在进行省级示范应用型高校建设中的借鉴经验。     

Who benefits most from property assessment taxes? Evidence from Los Angeles County

Assessment caps on property taxes are often assumed to benefit affluent homeowners the most with little gains for low-income households. Quantile regression results for Los Angeles County show that on average effective property tax rates decrease by $1994 per year due to length of ownership in the 50th percentile because of California’s Proposition 13 assessment cap. There is evidence of both horizontal and vertical inequity across the entire sample. Low-income households do benefit from California’s assessment cap as they are typically infrequent movers but their effective tax rates decrease over time. However, the most affluent households by market value do not gain the most and there is no evidence of horizontal inequity for these homeowners. There is also no evidence of horizontal inequity for middle-income households. Property tax savings vary between $18,000 and $40,000, depending on the assessed value decile and percentage quantile.     

A Rich Vein for “Reality Mining”北大核心CSSCISSCI

Arik Hesseldahl In the aftermath of the September 11 attacks, U.S. officials quickly turned their attention to other potential targets, including California's Golden Gate Bridge. What would happen if terrorists took down the bridge between San Francisco and Marin County? How much of the region would be affected and for how long?