EFTE: An interactive Delphi method

A new expert opinion technique is developed and applied to estimate the impact of information technologies on clerical work. EFTE stands for estimate, feedback, talk, estimate—the sequence of steps involved in this variant on the Delphi approach. EFTE offers advantages in obtaining expert opinions on complex tasks where social interaction poses little problem.     

An attempt to determine criteria for sensible rates of use of material resources

This article uses a systems framework to search for criteria for determining the rates of use of material resources. The existing criteria, which are found in the neoclassical economic theory and the environmental movement, are reexamined, and their limitations are discussed. The criteria for material resource use identified by this article emphasize that resources be selected from the environment on the basis of their regeneration time constant and consumed in a way that should maintain adequate organizational slack in the system. Based on these criteria, geological information about material resources appears to take precedence as the basis for determining their rates of use over their economic feasibility and efficiency of use.     

Participants' response to the Delphi method: An attitudinal perspective

The processes involved in an individual's response to the Delphi method are conditioned by a number of psychological affects. This paper examines aspects of two of these processes: the basis for changing opinions, and the factors related to continued participation in subsequent Delphi rounds. The attitudinal perspective is shown to be promising in explaining an individual panelist's response in the Delphi method. Cognitive dissonance apparently has a significant role to play in bolstering the assimilation of nonconforming respondents. This is, however, complicated by the respondents' perception of the credibility of the feedback received. Careful choice of panels may reduce dropouts, presumably by selecting those with a high degree of ego involvement. Nonetheless, elements of cognitive dissonance apparently lead certain panelists to abandon the Delphi process. It is evident that numerous parallels exist between psychological explanations of attitude change and the behavior of Delphi panelists.     

Forecasting system thermal efficiencies in technology importing countries

Forecasting the thermal efficiency of a set of power plants belonging to a country is important for energy, water, and environmental planning.In this article an analysis of the way in which the system thermal efficiency (STE) changes is provided, and a forecasting model for the electric utilities of technology importing countries is developed.The model is based on the identification of the speed with which technology is transferred from abroad and of the adjustment process of the system's efficiency to that of the best plant's.The application of the calculation to the South African utility shows that the STE in the year 2015 will be 20 to 25 percent higher than that in the year 1983.     

Improved rangeland management with an Earth Resource Survey system

Recent advances in communications and satellite technology now make it possible to provide large, synoptic imagery of the earth's surface at relatively low cost. This paper reports on acase study that was designed to estimate the benefits that might be realized by rangeland managers from an Earth Resources Survey system. Information needs and current practices are first discussed and then related to available remote sensing and data distribution techniques. The analysis showed that cost savings from an applications system would be broadly evident in the areas of resource re-allocation, range productivity, and livestock management. Depending upon the assumptions concerning the discount rate and factors affecting technological diffusion, total benefits were estimated to range from $38.7 million to $115.4 million over 10-year operational period.     

Limits and possibilities of large-scale long-range societal models

It is argued that the appropriate criteria for evaluating large-scale long-range societal (or “world”) models differ significantly from the criteria that are appropriate for short-range econometric models or for small “toy” models. World models are designed to elucidate major societal problems arising from the interaction of many loosely connected factors—demographic, economic, technological, and environmental—that can be safely neglected in short-range extrapolative models. World models are also intended to explore the implications of long-range policy alternatives. Consequently, it is important that world models be phenomenological, rather than statistical, and they must “capture” the essence of some inherently nonlinear phenomena. This implies achieving qualitative realism without imposing an unwarranted assumption of causal determinism. Unfortunately, the mathematical characteristics of large nonlinear systems may essentially preclude meaningful long-run forecasts.     

Utilization of Delphi methods for University planning

A Delphi-type project undertaken from 1970–1972 to explore the long-term aims of Carleton University is described. The desiderata of ten participating groups is compared to actual developments in the decade that followed.     

Interdisciplinary problems in doing impact assessment : The case of Lake Shelbyville

A multidisciplinary team of biologists, economists, engineers, planners, and sociologists were assembled to do an ex-post facto analysis of a flood control reservoir ten years after initial operations. Within the context of a research university, the authors suggest ways to 1) improve project administration, 2) combat disciplinary chauvinism, 3) facilitate the understanding and exchange of data across disciplines, 4) reward the work of graduate students in a fair and equitable manner, and 5) assist the principal investigator in achieving the goal of an interdisciplinary study. The importance of project associates in the day-to-day operation of the study is reviewed in detail.This paper details the administrative problems of the University of Illinois' interdisciplinary effort to examine the “real” environmental impacts of the Lake Shelbyville reservoir 10 years after it had begun operation. Lake Shelbyville is a U.S. Army Corps of Engineers reservoir located in east-central Illinois. Land acquisition began in 1962 and the reservoir was in operation by 1971. While not implying that “apples and oranges” don't mix, problems do result when we try to bring together a group of disciplinary researchers. We write with the hope that the suggestions outlined here will keep environmental impact assessment research interdisciplinary. One of the reasons for the present “environmental fix” is the single discipline approach to environmental problems.A true interdisciplinary effort is necessary for a comprehensive assessment of the impacted physical and social environments, yet “interdisciplinary” can easily become a false label. If the principal investigator and researchers are not attentive to project administration on a day-to-day basis, the old saying about integrating findings “with a staple” can easily result. Rather than integrated assessment, the study report may resemble a series of miniature discipline based projects that read like the list of university departments.     

Assessment of technological appropriateness: The case of Indonesian rural development

It is commonly recognized at the present that technological appropriateness is not an intrinsic quality of any technology, but it derived from the surroundings (technological as well as sociocultural, politicolegal, economic, and environmental) in which it is to be utilized and the specific purpose of its application. On this basis, this paper presents two case studies for the selection of appropriate technologies for rural development in Indonesia. The first case deals with the problem of identifying a “set of appropriate technologies” to be promoted for accelerated rural development. The second case deals with the problem of selecting the “most appropriate one” among available technologies of one kind. The assessment exercises are carried out using existing methodologies and inputs (such as national priorities, assessment factors, and decision weights) from Indonesian nationals. It is shown that the analysis can provide useful guidelines for science and technology policy planning in developing countries.     

The future of economics: A Delphi Study

In an attempt to forecast the shape of economics in the year 2001, a Delphi study was undertaken, involving over 200 professional economists from 18 different countries. The end result was a list of 28 breakthroughs thought likely to occur in the next 20 years. The paper describes each breakthrough in detail, the process by which consensus and dissent were communicated, and the method used to select the panel of experts surveyed. Although the overall outcome of the study can be interpreted from several perspectives, one inescapable impression that emerges is that the liberal tradition in economics is latent but not dead, or equivalently, that the present conservative drift in the discipline is likely to be shortlived.     

Technological substitution in the United States pulp and paper industry: The sulfate pulping process

This paper presents an econometric analysis of the diffusion of the sulfate pulping process throughout the U.S. pulp and paper industry. A dynamic equilibrium, Gompertz diffusion function is employed to derive a multivariate estimation model which incorporates more information than the traditional approach of estimating the growth rate function alone. The empirical results suggest that the econometric approach provides a useful integration of the technological diffusion process and the comparative static theory of demand. The sulfate pulping process is projected to continue capturing market share at a relatively rapid rate, and could account for 90% or more of total U.S. woodpulp production by the year 2000.     

Forecasting the impact of office automation on clerical employment, 1985–2000

This article offers a forecast of the effects that advances in office automation technology will have on clerical employment in the banking and insurance industries for the period 1985–2000. A new forecasting approach, intended to account more directly for technological change, was developed for the study and is described. Clerical employment in both industries is estimated to peak about 1990 and decline rapidly during the following decade. Under the most conservative assumptions, absolute reductions in clerical employment of 22% in insurance and 10% in banking are expected by 2000. As a preliminary validation of the method, these results are compared to employment forecasts generated independently by executives in the two industries and to the results of other recent employment forecasts.     

Public sector use of the Delphi technique

The Delphi Technique is gaining extensive use as a multipurpose tool by government planners and policy makers. This paper begins by briefly discussing the historical development of Delphi and some of its advantages and disadvantages. A considerable number of Delphis conducted in the public sector for the purposes of forecasting, communication, budgeting, and goal setting are then reviewed. Additionally, three prior reviews of Delphi use in the field of education are discussed. In reviewing these studies every attempt was made to detail the research intentions, special features and modifications, cautions, and benefits of each study. These characteristics are provided in tabular form in the summary section as a ready reference for the potential Delphi user. It is recommended that one should take full advantage of what has been learned from earlier research before undertaking a new Delphi.     

A new challenge to our brains: Finding the knowledge construct for world-level problems

If the ultimate resource is the human brain, the critical question is, “How well are we using it?” For the past 200 or so years we have concentrated on one capability—the power to reason, and in so doing have lost sight of the social and cultural components of knowledge. The new challenge is therefore to construct knowledge that is valid across the many societies and cultures in the world to enable world problems to be tackled in a world, rather than in a one- or two-culture, context.The purpose of this paper is to outline the limitations to knowledge constructed on a primarily rational basis and to propose how to go beyond them. These limitations encourage the reduction of the problems to a quantitative basis, and hence emphasize the measurable aspects of issues, usually the economic and the military. Unfortunately, as Stafford Beer pointed out many years ago, problems cannot be solved within their own context but only within a larger context. Present attempts to attain peace through measures of quantifiable destructiveness are therefore unlikely to prove effective. The way out, as Kenneth Boulding has noted, is to reformulate world problems in terms of peace, since the criteria for stable peace are not necessarily identical with those for the non-outbreak of war. One corollary is the need to reconstruct our knowledge using the whole brain, and in doing so, provide a knowledge basis valid across different societies and cultures. This is indeed a new, and very real, extension and challenge to the use of our brains.     

Trade in technology : Management decisions and pricing

In this article, a model of technology price estimation is developed. The process of trade in technology is seen as resulting in a partial transfer of the market in which the seller of the technology had previously sold his product to the buyer of the technology. Profit decrease of the seller because of market cuts is taken as the basis for the pricing of technology. The random nature of the useful lifetime of the technology is taken into account, and the influence of seller-firm characteristics on the technology price is analyzed.     

The use of discounted least squares in technological forecasting

The use of growth curves in technological forecasting usually employs an equal weighting of all data points in the time series. This paper considers the benefits of weighting recent information more heavily through the utilization of discounted least squares. The method is used to model the growth of the percentage of households with CATV; discounting gives better results for short-term forecasting.     

Use of mathematical models in automotive transportation policy analysis: A case study

Mathematical models are used widely in automotive transportation policy analysis. The limitations, benefits, and uses of a case-study model, the Sweeney Passenger Car Gasoline Demand Model, were examined. It was found that because of users' lack of awareness of the model's characteristics, the model has sometimes been misused, although the misuse appears to have had no major negative policy impact. However, the model use has had some impact on major automotive/energy policy decisions of the 1970s. Involvement by the model author in applications of the model contributed to effective use of the model in the policy process.     

Energy analysis of Japanese industries : A time series analysis

Characteristics of Japanese industries in the past 15 years have been investigated in terms of energy intensities, or energy directly and indirectly spent for production of a unit output in industries. The methodology of the analysis is similar to that by Herendern, that is an extension of input-output approach, but with various modifications. Data are seven input-output tables, of about 400 x 400 items published by the Japanese government. Changes in energy intensities with time are disaggregated into two factors, 1) changes in direct energy intensities and 2) changes in nonenergy resource use or in the ratios of value added taxes. Observation of these factors in the last 15 years reveals that the latter factor has been highly significant in energy conservation, especially in machine industries, the raw materials of which are mainly iron and steel. It is also observed that conventional energy conservation efforts have scarcely been dependent on nonenergy resource conservation.