Global modelling…Without models?: Theory,methodology, and rhetoric in world modelling

Global models have provided images of the world and its evolution, as well as assessments of the contemporary world and the debates relating to such issues. However, this article addresses the inquiries and attitudes that are fundamental to the development of global modelling, and it emphasizes that a single image, or model, is incapable of valid, universal representation.     

Reason's shadow: Notes on the psychodynamics of obstruction

The remarks that follow are made with regard to the behavior of leaders whose self-image is threatened by a variety of conditions comprising the world problematique. Of all those conditions, surely those associated with violence and warfare are the most threatening. I would speculate, therefore, that what I've written here is especially pertinent for deliberations on how to encourage peace and disarmament.While these remarks are focused on the behavior of leaders—especially those in government—they can hold, too, for those in the public who identify with those leaders…itself another psychodynamic process. Of course, the public's contexts differ so the degree of threat and response will differ, too. This is a matter for further attention.Moreover, self-images are usually rich in content and while some aspects are threatened, others may not be or, indeed, may be attracted by new rational ideas. The resultant struggle within the psyche complicates the overt expression of these unconscious conflicts.But these dynamics mirror those comprising the problematique, especially its expression around issues of war and peace. Therefore, psychodynamic matters deserve as much attention and utilization as we now give to conventional, indeed, often ritual means, masquerading as rationality, for dealing with violence and armaments.     

Report on a new technological community: The making of a technopolis in an international context

In 1980 the Japanese government conceptualized technopolises. Nine technopolises are already in operation in 1984, and several more will follow. A technopolis is a healthy living environment with cultural amenities combined with high technology industries, away from the existing overcrowded industrial centers and adapted to local characteristics. This article focuses on the most advanced technopolis on the “Silicon Island” Kyushu, describes its process of development, and its future advantages and disadvantages compared to other technopolises.     

A missing link in modeling : The future of time-use as an illustration

A Theory of Action is formulated based on the intentionality of actions. The transformation rules from the new theory to system dynamics were developed and the methodology was then applied to certain problems of future time-use. The modeling approach used is holistic and it requires a meta-system to system dynamics in order to produce quantitative results.     

A comparison of intracompany and intercompany LEAP forecasts

The Likelihood of Events Assessment Process (LEAP), a new method of forecasting, was described by Preble in 1982 [5]. This article carries forward that work by demonstrating with top level life insurance executives that LEAP forecasts are consistent. Using matched intracompany and intercompany LEAP panels, under identical test conditions, it was found that the two groups produced very similar socio-political forecast estimates and degrees of consensus. Both groups reported themselves to be satisfied with using the technique and about 85% of the participants said they would be willing to use LEAP again. Since strong similarities were demonstrated, the intracompany panel type is recommended to strategic planners based on its unique advantages.     

A multi-attribute diffusion model for forecasting the adoption of investment alternatives for consumers

This article develops a diffusion model that incorporates potential adopters' perceptions of the relevant innovation attributes in explaining the rate of adoption of an innovation. Data from 14 investment alternatives currently available to consumers are used to develop a multi-attribute diffusion model for forecasting the acceptance of a potential investment alternative. Limitations and further extensions of the proposed model are also discussed.     

Information,value, and the internal marketplace

The potentials for increasing the productivity of information workers by the incorporation within organizations of internal information marketplaces for the creation, distribution and utilization of information are discussed.While speculative in nature, this paper is based upon a decade of development and evaluation of computer-based human communication systems. It is an attempt to extrapolate, from known impacts and consequences of this technology on individuals and groups, the opportunities presented by this technology for organizations and society.     

Technical note:: Hybrid corn: Its adoption revisited

The analysis presented is for the adoption of hybrid corn. Among the three functional relationships that are tried the log logistic performs best in terms of explanation (R²) and serial correlation before adjusting for it. After adjusting for the serial correlation using the Cochrane Orcutt procedure the differences between the three functional forms practically vanish. The adoption parameter of the log logistic is best explained by economic variables among which the total area of corn in the state, which stands for both the importance in the economy and economies of scale of extension services, is outstanding.     

Thai inflation dynamics: A view from disaggregated price data

This paper utilizes disaggregated prices at the micro level to examine the patterns of price adjustment in Thailand. Among the key stylized facts, we found that the frequency of price changes are generally low, prices decreases are common, the size of price changes are large relative to the inflation rate, and there is significant dispersion in price levels as well as in the synchronicity of price changes across regions. To better understand the underlying sources of heterogeneous price dynamics, we conduct dynamic factor analyses and highlight the importance of relative price changes in driving the bulk of overall CPI movements. This suggests an important role of non-monetary factors in driving inflation. A significant Phillips curve relation is detected once idiosyncratic price changes are filtered out, reinforcing the importance of disaggregated analysis of price trends in the conduct of monetary policy.     

The end of a 400-year boom

The Great Discoveries, which began with Columbus, created a frontier that both eased European population pressures and poured enormous wealth into the Metropolis (Western Europe). A feudalistic, authoritarian society gradually gave way to a more open democratic set of nations. Familiar institutions were born: representative democracy and private-enterprise capitalism. Individualism flowered. During the twentieth century, that 400-year “boom” has come to an end. Population pressures on resources are now roughly similar, or worse, than those of pre-Columbian times. Humankind thus faces a “climacteric”—a coalescence of crises. The “ecological trap”, which imprisoned humans prior to the Great Discoveries, is once more closing. The questions this developed include: 1) is another frontier of comparable significance to the Great Discoveries in the offing? and 2) do the familiar politico-economic institutions of the era of the “400-year boom” require reexamination? The answers given are: 1) science and technology provide the only hope for a new frontier; but while advancing technology has brought many material benefits, it alone cannot do the necessary job; 2) the institutions of the American constitutional order should be reexamined to determine if they are suitable for the time of troubles that lies dead ahead. Several constitutional changes are suggested, to be brought about by a constitutional convention. In sum, a new social paradigm is required.     

Assessing the impact of patent infringement on new product sales

In order to assess the impact of patent infringement on the growth of a new product, a model is developed through the intervention model development processes of Box-Jenkins and Box-Tiao. Physical interpretations of model parameters and determination of associated damages suggest that the model can provide a sound basis for analyzing patent infringement disputes.     

Social technology and economic development

The large gap between the best available technology and technology in use, especially in the less developed world, is primarily due to social and cultural factors that can only be changed by means of deliberately applied social technologies. Thus, conventional strategies for global population stabilization, economic development, and environmental improvement often put the cart before the horse.     

Cooperative research and the firm

This paper models cooperative R & D involving the university, the government, and the firm, using a linear programming format to determine the optimal cooperative structure or, “Who does what?” Both prime and dual are discussed. Sensitivity and simulation techniques are discussed as analytical tools to evaluate the effect of uncertainty and returns to scale on the optimal mix or structure of cooperative R & D. The value of the approach is both heuristic and analytical. Some problems and limitations of the approach are discussed briefly.     

Interactive software for the capture,management, and analysis of data in Delphi inquiries

Studies utilizing the Delphi method are typically the subject of extensive research design. Such studies also have a reputation for being expensive when compared with some other forms of social research. There is a large class of research that may benefit from the use of off-the-shelf software that is used not only in data analysis but also as a medium of communication and data management.This paper focuses on one such software package that incorporates these three aspects with the aim of streamlining Delphi-based research.