Global modelling…Without models?: Theory,methodology, and rhetoric in world modelling

Global models have provided images of the world and its evolution, as well as assessments of the contemporary world and the debates relating to such issues. However, this article addresses the inquiries and attitudes that are fundamental to the development of global modelling, and it emphasizes that a single image, or model, is incapable of valid, universal representation.     

Reason's shadow: Notes on the psychodynamics of obstruction

The remarks that follow are made with regard to the behavior of leaders whose self-image is threatened by a variety of conditions comprising the world problematique. Of all those conditions, surely those associated with violence and warfare are the most threatening. I would speculate, therefore, that what I've written here is especially pertinent for deliberations on how to encourage peace and disarmament.While these remarks are focused on the behavior of leaders—especially those in government—they can hold, too, for those in the public who identify with those leaders…itself another psychodynamic process. Of course, the public's contexts differ so the degree of threat and response will differ, too. This is a matter for further attention.Moreover, self-images are usually rich in content and while some aspects are threatened, others may not be or, indeed, may be attracted by new rational ideas. The resultant struggle within the psyche complicates the overt expression of these unconscious conflicts.But these dynamics mirror those comprising the problematique, especially its expression around issues of war and peace. Therefore, psychodynamic matters deserve as much attention and utilization as we now give to conventional, indeed, often ritual means, masquerading as rationality, for dealing with violence and armaments.     

A comparison of intracompany and intercompany LEAP forecasts

The Likelihood of Events Assessment Process (LEAP), a new method of forecasting, was described by Preble in 1982 [5]. This article carries forward that work by demonstrating with top level life insurance executives that LEAP forecasts are consistent. Using matched intracompany and intercompany LEAP panels, under identical test conditions, it was found that the two groups produced very similar socio-political forecast estimates and degrees of consensus. Both groups reported themselves to be satisfied with using the technique and about 85% of the participants said they would be willing to use LEAP again. Since strong similarities were demonstrated, the intracompany panel type is recommended to strategic planners based on its unique advantages.     

Information,value, and the internal marketplace

The potentials for increasing the productivity of information workers by the incorporation within organizations of internal information marketplaces for the creation, distribution and utilization of information are discussed.While speculative in nature, this paper is based upon a decade of development and evaluation of computer-based human communication systems. It is an attempt to extrapolate, from known impacts and consequences of this technology on individuals and groups, the opportunities presented by this technology for organizations and society.     

A new challenge to our brains: Finding the knowledge construct for world-level problems

If the ultimate resource is the human brain, the critical question is, “How well are we using it?” For the past 200 or so years we have concentrated on one capability—the power to reason, and in so doing have lost sight of the social and cultural components of knowledge. The new challenge is therefore to construct knowledge that is valid across the many societies and cultures in the world to enable world problems to be tackled in a world, rather than in a one- or two-culture, context.The purpose of this paper is to outline the limitations to knowledge constructed on a primarily rational basis and to propose how to go beyond them. These limitations encourage the reduction of the problems to a quantitative basis, and hence emphasize the measurable aspects of issues, usually the economic and the military. Unfortunately, as Stafford Beer pointed out many years ago, problems cannot be solved within their own context but only within a larger context. Present attempts to attain peace through measures of quantifiable destructiveness are therefore unlikely to prove effective. The way out, as Kenneth Boulding has noted, is to reformulate world problems in terms of peace, since the criteria for stable peace are not necessarily identical with those for the non-outbreak of war. One corollary is the need to reconstruct our knowledge using the whole brain, and in doing so, provide a knowledge basis valid across different societies and cultures. This is indeed a new, and very real, extension and challenge to the use of our brains.     

Discoveries, innovations, and business cycles

There is considerable evidence that the density of basic innovations is peaked at definite periods with intervals of about 40–60 years. This has been used as support for the behavior of economic cycles as postulated by Kontradieff and amplified by Schumpeter. Recently some economists have used this model to forecast economic recovery in the middle or late 1980s.This paper points out that the shape of the clusters of innovation or inventions are different and sharper than those of economic depression or economic recovery. The transfer of knowledge from basic inventions to industrial innovations shortens as one moves from the 18th to the 20th century, and some probable explanations for this are offered. The importance of discoveries and limited discoveries to the process of invention and innovation is discussed. Also shown is that discoveries reveal cluster phenomena which are functionally related to the clusters of invention and innovation.