生产性支出偏好与经济增长波动

文章基于我国1998-2006年的县级面板数据,分析财政支出结构对经济增长波动的影响机制。理论分析表明,我国地方政府偏好生产性支出的特点,将提高经济增长波动率;实证结果有力地论证了上述结论,即生产性公共支出占比提高10%,经济增长波动率将增加0.42%。稳健性分析发现中西部县级地区较东部地区经济增长的波动率更大。此外,我国生产性支出偏好对经济增长波动率的影响具有明显的顺周期特征,在繁荣时期,经济增长波动率的增加幅度将超过0.8%。文章的结论可为推进和完善中央与地方财政事权和支出责任划分提供参考和依据。     

Empowering communities: The experience of the church urban fund

This article seeks to report on ways of empowering local communities who are suffering multiple deprivation. It is set within the context created by the requirement for partnership in the submission of funding applications to City Challenge and the Single Regeneration Budget. This exploration draws upon an evaluation of the Church Urban Fund undertaken by the authors in 1993-4 funded by the Department of the Environment, the Church Urban Fund, the Paul S. Cadbury Trust and the Wates Foundation (Farnell et al, 1994).     

Interregional transfers and the smoothing of provincial expenditure in China

Interregional transfers can smooth shocks to regional revenue and prevent spending from varying across time. This paper estimates the amounts of expenditure smoothing provided by interregional net transfers to China's provinces over the 1952–2001 period. The findings indicate that net transfers minimized the volatility of provincial expenditure by cushioning a relatively large fraction of province-specific revenue shocks. However, aggregate shocks to revenue diminished the amount of smoothing, and extrabudgetary funds increased expenditure volatility. Rich provinces were better insured against province-specific revenue shocks than poor provinces. The cross-sectional disparity in expenditure smoothing widened dramatically after 1994.     

基于基金持仓头寸的国际油价动荡研究:1994～2009

2002年以来,国际石油价格暴涨暴跌、急剧动荡。本文首先梳理了国际石油投资、投机基金的构成、规模及特点;其次选取CFTC公布的1994～2009年的基金持仓数据,分别对基金总持仓和代表投机基金的非商业持仓头寸与国际油价之间的关系进行协整分析和格兰杰因果检验。结果显示:国际油价的暴涨暴跌确是资金推动的,石油投机基金的天量投机行为正是国际油价动荡的罪魁祸首;最后提出最优投机度概念,一旦投机行为触及"最优投机度",交易系统应触发"熔断制度",限制其投机行为。     

PUBLIC ENVIRONMENTAL EXPENDITURES IN INDONESIA

The economic justification for public expenditure is especially strong in the case of environmental management. Yet expenditures on environmental management have received little attention in public expenditure reviews by the World Bank and other international development organisations. An initial analysis of environmental expenditures in the Indonesian government budget between FY1994/95 and FY1998/99 yields four basic findings. First, most spending in the nominal environmental sector, sector 10 (Environment and Spatial Planning), is on non-environmental activities, and much environmental expenditure occurs in other budget sectors. Second, environmental expenditures fell sharply in real terms during the economic crisis, to levels far below those in FY94/95. Third, they also fell sharply relative to the budget and to GDP. Finally, environmental expenditures declined more in Indonesia during the economic crisis than in Malaysia, Thailand and Korea, relative to both the budget and GDP.     

Towards internal cohesion? The role of local government in economic development under the EU Single Programme in Northern Ireland

This paper focuses on the extent to which EU funding available under the Local Economic Development Measure of the Northern Ireland Single Programme (1994-99) has encouraged local government in Northern Ireland to adopt a new role in local economic development. It also considers whether the implementation of the Measure has effectively addressed its objectives of economic and social cohesion. It discusses the rationale for district council involvement and concludes that the local government structure in Northern Ireland requires adaptation to optimise the impact of the aid on offer.     

江苏省县域经济收敛性的检验和分析

文章结合经济增长理论中的收敛假说,通过对GDP、财政和教育等多项人均指标的分析,实证了1994年分税制改革以来江苏省52个县经济增长的绝对和条件收敛情况.透过各个指标的不同变化情况分析,发现1994-2000年间各项指标呈现较为明显的收敛,而2000年以后则出现了不同程度的发散情况.     

Pen and tinbergen on income distribution: A review article

Summary The book under review combines a brief survey of the state of the art in income distribution theory, based primarily on the earlier contributions of the authors, with a wealth of information on the reduction (by about 50 percent) of income inequality in the Netherlands over the last 40 years. Furthermore, progress is charted towards a further reduction of inequality between now and 1990. This review argues that labour income is not just determined by (the demand for) technology and (the supply of) education, but also by the bias towards the demand for skilled labour that seems to result from the expansion of public expenditure. It is recommended that this expenditure incidence on the primary distribution of income be further explored in future research programmes, as it is likely to slow down further progress towards equality.     

Minimum Living Level and Consumer Price Index: What's in a name?

The Minimum Living Level (MLL) denotes the minimum financial requirements of members of a household to maintain an acceptable living standard, which is above the Poverty Line. Sufficient quantities of relevant expenditure items based on minimum health standards are allowed for when calculating the MLL, but rational expenditure on them is assumed. The MLL is measured in monetary value. The Consumer Price Index (CPI) is a measurement of changes in the prices over time of a basket of typical consumer goods and services and is measured by an index or percentage. The basket of expenditure items used in the CPI depends on household expenditure surveys. This article sets out to differentiate between the MLL, CPI and the Poverty Line, since the latter and the MLL are sometimes used in the same context in South Africa.     

Gender Dimensions to the Incidence of Tariff Liberalization

Abstract: This paper evaluates a topic in the globalization and poverty debate that is often difficult to measure, namely the transmission of price changes associated with tariff liberalization to households. Furthermore, it raises the question of whether there are discernible differences between male‐ and female‐headed households that affect this consumption‐trade link. It is a partial analysis as a consequence, but one that demonstrates the importance of such a focus for continued research and policy development surrounding the impacts of globalization. Specifically, the paper evaluates how tariff changes impacted male‐ and female‐headed households in South Africa over the discrete periods 1995, 2000, and 2004. The analysis of consumption trends by sex of household head shows statistically significant differences which confirm that resources are managed differently between the sexes, and these are transmitted through to the tariff incidence analysis. On the whole, it was found that: (1) male‐headed households almost always bear a greater share of the tariff incidence compared to female‐headed; (2) both male‐ and female‐headed households — across all expenditure quantiles other than the most wealthy — bear a greater share of the tariff burden compared to their share of total expenditure; and (3) changes to the incidence over 1995, 2000, and 2004 between the sexes mimicked the trends for the population as a whole, but showed crucial differences at the bottom end of the expenditure distribution. This suggests that the sex of the household head matters, and must be considered in addition to other household identifying factors (e.g. socio‐economic status) when evaluating the impacts of tariff liberalization.     

Human capital investment in children: An empirical study of household child education expenditure in China, 2007 and 2011

Household education expenditure is an important component of human capital investment in children. In China, the rising child education expenditure and the subsequent financial burden on families have attracted much research and policy attention in the recent years. Using 2007 and 2011 data from the Urban Household Education Surveys, our empirical study provides new evidence on the education expenditure level, ratio of expenditure to household income, and inequality in this expenditure. We also elucidate changes in China's household education expenditure and explore factors associated with such changes. From the analysis, we obtain the following findings. First, education expenditure incurred outside the school significantly contributes to increasing household education expenditure. Second, compulsory education programs are effective in curbing in-school education expenditure; however, it does not prevent the rapidly increasing education investment outside school. Third, education expenditure disproportionally increases with family income. In other words, a larger share of the income earned by lower income families is spent on children's education, compared to higher income families.     

POST‐TRANSITION POVERTY TRENDS BASED ON AN ALTERNATIVE DATA SOURCE1

This paper analyses a previously unused source of data – the All Media and Product Survey (AMPS) – to arrive at alternative estimates of the post‐transition poverty path. The motivations for using this non‐official data source are twofold: concern over the comparability of the existing official post‐transition datasets – the Income and Expenditure Survey (IES) and Population Census – and a desire to extend analysis of poverty trends beyond 2001. While official data sources are generally preferred for purposes of poverty analysis, the IES and Census collect data at long (5 or 10 year) intervals, and additional years pass before these datasets become available to the public. In some cases there is also concern about data comparability between surveys. The expenditure data contained in the General Household Survey are available annually, although data are captured in a small number of categories that are not very conducive to analysis at the lower end of the income distribution. Analysis on AMPS data confirms the large decline in poverty implied by an increase of R18 billion (in 2000 Rand) in social grant payments between 2000 and 2004. The direction of this trend is consistent with recent research findings based on more frequently analysed data sources, including the work done by Agüero, Carter and May (2005), Seekings (2006 ) and Meth (2006 ).     

Fiscal flows in Europe: The redistributive effects of the EU budget

Fiscal Flows in Europe: The Redistributive Effects of the EU Budget. — In this paper we analyze the redistributive effects of the EU budget among European countries, exploring the relationship between income and fiscal flows, both in per capita terms. Using a new data set on EU budgets from 1986 to 1998, we find that the EU budget has a redistributive effect, though only on its expenditure side. The most redistributive expenditure category is the Regional Fund, followed by the Social Fund and by the guarantee section of the EAGGF. All of them have become increasingly redistributive in time. Total budgetary revenues show only proportionality with income. As regards the net financial balance, three groups of countries are identified, given the treatment they get from the EU budget that cannot be explained by their per capita income levels.     

主权财富基金的发展与国家权力建设

当前,主权财富基金快速发展,已成为国际金融市场上的一支重要力量。而主权财富基金由国家拥有和控制,其投资行为有时可能会反映政府的政治选择,这必然影响到国际体系中政治与经济的互动。这使主权财富基金逐渐成为国家权力要素的重要组成部分,增加了国家运用权力的经济手段。但在大国仍然是国际关系格局的主导者,主权财富基金自身实力还比较弱的现实面前,主权财富基金对国际体系中权力分配的影响仍十分有限。     

Regional Disparity in the Body Mass Index Distribution of Indonesians: New Evidence Beyond The Mean

This article studies the differentials in body mass index (BMI) across the distribution of Indonesian people in urban and rural regions, using the latest wave of the Indonesia Family Life Survey. Besides the mean difference decomposition, this study implements a quantile decomposition analysis and decomposes the differentials between rural and urban populations at various quantile points of the distributions. This study offers new evidence of the substantial heterogeneity of their determinants and their impacts across the distribution, which has been overlooked in the literature. Physical activities explain the distributional differentials across the distribution for men and women, and their relative contribution sizes are larger at the higher quantiles. The significance of the structural effect of food expenditure and choices is observed at the middle and higher quantile points of the female distribution. This article shows the importance of analysing distributional differences by elucidating the heterogeneity of the effects of determinants.     

持续灾难性卫生支出测度、城乡差异与医疗保险阻断效应评估

以往文献对持续灾难性卫生支出天然属性的研究匮乏,导致相对贫困治理和医疗保障政策长远靶向目标规划缺失。文章将家庭医疗支出连年增加,重复发生灾难性卫生支出的过程定义为持续灾难性卫生支出,并在此基础上构建反映持续灾难性卫生支出发生率、发生深度以及发生时间等指数综合刻画持续灾难性卫生支出程度,利用中国微观数据（CFPS）进行动态测度和城乡分解,最后实证分析基本医疗保险对城乡家庭持续灾难性卫生支出的政策效果。研究发现,家庭持续灾难性卫生支出发生具有较强黏性,持续时间越长,摆脱难度越大,且农村持续灾难性卫生支出程度高于城镇,但城乡差距随持续时间逐渐缩小;与此同时,基本医疗保险能够显著阻断持续灾难性卫生支出,但阻断效应呈现较大的城乡差异,农村基本医疗保险在当期的阻断效应更明显,而长期来看城镇基本医疗保险的阻断效应则更强。文章结论为我国相对贫困治理和医疗保险制度优化提供了实证参考。     

城镇企业职工养老保险基金支付能力测算模型的构建——基于“渐进式”延迟退休年龄策略的研究

应用社会保险精算方法和技术,以现行的社会养老保险政策为导向,重点考虑"渐进式"延迟退休因素,构建养老保险基金收支测算模型。并在此基础上推导出养老保险基金支付能力测算模型,以期对养老金失衡风险和支付能力危机进行及时预测,为养老保险政策的调整和完善提供依据。     

Public spending and economic growth: evidence from Ghana (1970–2004)

Governments undertake expenditures to pursue a variety of objectives, one of which is economic growth. This paper examines aggregated and disaggregated expenditure on economic growth in Ghana over the period 1970–2004. Expenditure on education and health represents human capital development, while expenditure on roads and waterways captures infrastructure development. The study reveals that the aggregated government expenditure retarded economic growth. The study's findings show that expenditures on health and infrastructure promote economic growth, while those on education had no significant impact in the short run. In addition, the political economy variables?namely the nature of governance (democracy) and political instability (years of changes in government and military dictatorship)?proved significant in explaining Ghana's economic growth over the study period.     

Increases in poverty in South Africa, 1999–2002

Analysis of the results in the 1999 October Household Survey and the 2002 Labour Force Survey suggests that the number of people in the bottom two expenditure classes (R0–R399 and R400–R799 per household per month) increased by about 4,2 million over the period. As the boundaries of these expenditure classes remained constant in nominal terms, there is a likelihood that the number of people in poverty will have increased as well. This article attempts to discover whether this is indeed the case. The possible increase in the number of people in poverty is not equal to the increase in the number of people in these two expenditure categories. Rather, it is equal to the difference between the numbers of people in poverty in the two years. Our first crude estimate of the maximum potential number of ‘new’ poor suggests that it could be as high as 4,5 million. This estimate, which excludes any adjustments for possible underreporting of expenditure, child cost economies and household economies of scale, and the ‘social wage’, is whittled down as we attempt to make the relevant allowances. Responding to claims that poverty is increasing in the country, the government has pointed to a failure to consider the contribution of the social wage to the alleviation of poverty. Accordingly, we have also attempted to estimate the impact of the social wage.     

Who succeeds in distance learning? Evidence from quantile panel data estimation

This study provides a comprehensive analysis of the distributional effects of distance learning (DL) on academic success, as measured by course grades and completion. Using data of over 1.2 million courses taken by about 200,000 U.S. Navy sailor-students at more than 1800 U.S. institutions during 1994–2007, we find that distance delivery of education is associated with poorer outcomes. At the mean, DL delivery is associated with 0.19 lower course grade points; however, the mean effect masks the more pronounced negative effects of DL in the bottom two-thirds of the distribution—where DL lowers grades by as much as 0.8 points. Using variation only among marginal students—those who tend to fail some of the courses that they take, our estimates indicate traditional face-to-face delivery is associated with 2.4 times greater likelihood of successful course completion than if it was delivered distant. These findings suggest that targeting DL courses to certain students may be more cost-effective.