积极做市,树立银行间市场做市商品牌

中国农业银行资金交易中心作为银行间市场第一个资金交易中心,多年来始终是银行间市场上交易最活跃、最有实力、最具影响力的机构之一,2002年至2006年连续五年实现银行间市场交易量排名第一。作为银行间市场的首批双边报价商,农行已经连续6年多坚持每个交易日多券种、小价差报价,在发现市场价格和活跃市场交易方面发挥了积极作用,     

做市商稳定了市场吗?——来自中国银行间债券市场的证据

交易机制会对市场的稳定性造成影响。从理论上说,由于做市商具有维持市场稳定有序的义务,所以,通常做市商市场的稳定性较高。本文基于银行间债券市场的交易数据,利用非参数检验和Levene方差检验,实证验证了我国银行间债券市场做市商对市场波动性的影响,发现做市商并没有起到降低市场波动的作用,并分析了其中的原因。     

完善债券做市支持机制

正2013年11月,党的十八届三中全会通过《中共中央关于全面深化改革若干重大问题的决定》(以下简称《决定》),指出"健全反映市场供求关系的国债收益率曲线"。央行行长周小川在《决定》辅导读本上发表署名文章,指出健全反映市场供求关系的国债收益率曲线,重点措施之一在于"完善债券做市支持机制,提高市场流动性"。因此,如何完善我国债券市场的做市支持机制,是值得理论畀和实务界深思和探讨的问题。     

做市商制度、双边价差与市场稳定性——基于银行间债券市场做市行为的研究

本文在梳理我国银行间债券市场做市商制度发展历程及其与市场流动性关系的基础上,以一段包含牛、熊市的完整市场周期为样本,考察了双边价差的影响因素,并对不同行情下做市商报价行为及稳定市场的效果作了比较研究。结果发现,做市商提供的市场流动性整体不足,而做市商的表现明显好于尝试做市商;从做市商稳定市场的效果看,只有五大行发挥了一定作用。原因在于,市场没有分层、做市商缺乏激励使得做市业务无法盈利,仅做市商考核排名(提高声誉)能对国有大行带来一定激励,因此越是以盈利为考核目标的机构做市的意愿越低。     

最小报价单位对基金市场流动性的影响

本文研究了中国封闭式基金最小报价单位调整前后市场流动性的变化,揭示了最小报价单位变动对基金市场买卖价差、市场深度以及交易量的影响,为中国不同价位证券是否应该进行最小报价单位调整提供了实证支持.研究发现降低最小报价单位在很大程度上有助于增强基金市场流动性,但也存在减少交易量等负面影响,这有待我们在交易制度设计方面的不断完善.     

新三板做市交易提高流动性了吗？——基于“流动性悖论”的视角

本文以新三板市场实施“做市商制度”为研究背景,使用2014年底前挂牌的1542家公司2014-2016年的数据,利用双重差分法(DID)研究了选择做市交易对流动性的影响。研究发现,选择做市交易并未提升公司流动性,导致“流动性悖论”;市值较大的公司选择做市交易对流动性有一定提升,而小市值公司则相反。因此,未来新三板应着力于交易机制与监管政策之间的互补配套,拓展做市商队伍,引导公司更多的选择做市交易。     

贷款市场报价利率改革对商业银行的影响及应对策略

改革完善贷款市场报价利率形成机制,有利于提高利率传导效率,有效推动降低实体经济融资成本,是我国利率市场化改革的里程碑,也是推进贷款利率“两轨并一轨”的关键一步,并对我国商业银行贷款定价及经营将产生根本影响。本文从完善贷款市场报价利率形成机制对商业银行定价及贷款经营的影响进行分析,并从商业银行角度提出相关对策建议。     

债券市场做市业务与电子交易平台结合的国际经验

做市商制度是解决场外市场流动性的重要制度性安排,而电子交易平台对场外市场交易效率的提升作用很大。文章考察了美国、欧洲和日本债券场外市场做市业务与电子交易平台结合的经验,并对我国银行间债券市场发展提出建议。     

日内回转交易的市场效果：基于上海证券市场的实证研究

本文利用沪市逐笔交易数据,实证研究了日内回转交易制度对市场的影响.结果表明,日内回转交易提高了市场流动性和定价效率,但并未加剧价格波动和增加投资风险.波动性与产品特征有关,与日内回转交易制度无关.日内回转交易有助于减少投资者损失,降低交易风险.     

Volatility in the federal funds market and money market spreads during the financial crisis

We analyze the role of federal funds rate volatility in affecting risk premium as measured by various money market spreads during the 2007–2009 financial crisis. We find that volatility in the federal funds market contributed to elevated Overnight Index Swap (OIS) spreads of unsecured bank funding rates during the crisis. Using OIS as a proxy for market expectations, we also decompose London Inter-Bank Offered Rate (Libor) into its permanent and transitory components in a dynamic factor framework and show that increased volatility in the federal funds market contributed to substantial transitory movements of Libor away from its long-run trend during the financial crisis.     

Macro news and bond yield spreads in the euro area

This paper analyses the effects of newspaper coverage of macro news on the spread between the yield on the 10-year German Bund and on sovereign bonds in eight countries belonging to the euro area (Belgium, France, Greece, Ireland, Italy, the Netherlands, Portugal and Spain) using daily data for the period 1999–2014. The econometric analysis is based on the estimation of a VAR-GARCH model. The results can be summarized as follows. Negative news have significant positive effects on yield spreads in all GIIPS (Greece, Ireland, Italy, Portugal and Spain) countries but Italy before September 2008; markets respond more to negative news, and their reaction has increased during the recent financial crisis. News volatility has a significant impact on yield spread volatility, the effects being more pronounced in the case of negative news and bigger in the most recent crisis period, especially in the GIIPS countries. Further, the conditional correlations between yield spreads and negative news increase in absolute value during the financial crisis (especially in the GIIPS countries), indicating a higher sensitivity of the former to the latter.     

Emerging market bond spreads: The role of global and domestic factors from 2002 to 2011

We address the importance of external versus domestic conditions in determining emerging market bond (EMBI) spreads. Using principal components, we derive a measure of global risk aversion, which is shown to have a significant and, when interacted with a country's foreign debt to GNI ratio, nonlinear effect on these bond spreads. Our model, estimated using Pooled Mean Group techniques, which also incorporates country-specific variables (foreign debt, fiscal policy, debt servicing and political risk), is able to track developments in emerging market bond spreads over the period May 2002 to October 2011 quite well. From mid 2002 to mid 2007, the model suggests that just over two thirds of the decline in these spreads on average reflected improved fundamentals, with the rest due to easy credit conditions. During the 2008 crisis, virtually all of the run-up in emerging market spreads was due to the large increase in our measure of risk aversion. A model of the measure of risk aversion is also estimated, which identifies as its key drivers, the outlook for growth in the major OECD and large non-OECD economies as well as US credit supply conditions.     

An empirical examination of the impact of market microstructure changes on the determinants of option bid-ask spreads

This paper examines the determinants of bid-ask spreads in the Australian Options Market before and after it switched from a quote-driven floor-traded market to an order-driven screen-traded market. This study reports that both put and call option bid-ask spreads are positively related to the option's value, its remaining term-to-maturity, its absolute hedge ratio and the volatility of returns from the underlying asset and negatively related to the level of trading activity in that option series. The study also reports that spreads are generally less when market makers are obliged to maintain continuous quotes in the market. The paper also finds that following the change in trading regime, both call and put option spreads became more sensitive to the absolute value of the option's delta. This finding is consistent with previous theoretical and empirical work from equities markets that has suggested that a switch to an electronic trading regime results in an increase in the adverse selection component of the bid-ask spread. There is also some limited evidence that suggests that the switch to electronic trading resulted in call option spreads being less sensitive to the return volatility of the underlying asset but more sensitive to the option's price.     

Trading volatility spreads: a test of index option market efficiency

If returns on two assets share common volatility components, the prices of options on the assets should be interdependent and the implied volatility spread should mean revert. We first demonstrate, using the canonical correlation method, that there is a common component in the volatilities of the returns on S&P 100 and S&P 500 indices. We then exploit this commonality by trading on the volatility spread between tick-by-tick OEX and SPX call options listed on the CBOE. Our vega-delta-neutral strategies generated significant profits, even after transaction costs are taken into account. The results suggest that the two options markets are not jointly efficient.     

A macro-financial analysis of the euro area sovereign bond market

We estimate the ‘fundamental’ component of euro area sovereign bond yield spreads, i.e. the part of bond spreads that can be justified by country-specific economic factors, euro area economic fundamentals, and international influences. The yield spread decomposition is achieved using a multi-market, no-arbitrage affine term structure model with a unique pricing kernel. More specifically, we use the canonical representation proposed by Joslin et al. (2011) and introduce next to standard spanned factors a set of unspanned macro factors, as in Joslin et al. (forthcoming). The model is applied to yield curve data from Belgium, France, Germany, Italy, and Spain over the period 2005–2013. Overall, our results show that economic fundamentals are the dominant drivers behind sovereign bond spreads. Nevertheless, shocks unrelated to the fundamental component of the spread have played an important role in the dynamics of bond spreads since the intensification of the sovereign debt crisis in the summer of 2011.     

Trading and liquidity in the catastrophe bond market

We provide first insights into secondary market trading, liquidity determinants, and the liquidity premium of catastrophe bonds. Based on transaction data from TRACE (Trade Reporting and Compliance Engine), we find that cat bonds are traded less frequently during the hurricane season and more often close to maturity. Trading activity indicates that the market is dominated by brokers without a proprietary inventory. Liquidity is high in periods of high trading activity in the overall market and for bonds with low default risk or close to maturity, which results from lower order processing costs. Finally, using realized bid–ask spreads as a liquidity measure, we find that on average, 21% of the observable yield spread on the cat bond market is attributable to the liquidity premium, with a magnitude of up to 141 bps for high-risk bonds.     

Sovereign debt spreads in EMU: The time-varying role of fundamentals and market distrust

This paper provides further analysis on the determinants of sovereign debt spreads for peripheral Eurozone countries since the start of EMU, paying special attention to episodes that characterized the global financial crisis aftermath starting in 2007. More specifically, the purpose of our research is to disentangle the role of fundamental variables and market perception about variations on risk in order to explain the evolution of sovereign spreads in EMU during the recent crisis. Our results, in line with previous literature, show the importance of three groups of observable variables, namely, changes in risk-aversion of creditors, fiscal indebtedness and liquidity variables. In addition, our model includes unobserved components that are estimated through the Kalman filter as time-varying deviation from fixed-mean parameters of spread determinants. This shows the importance of expectations (market sentiments), amplifying (or reducing) the relative importance of the spread determinants over time through the time-varying behavior of the parameters around their steady-state estimates.     

Are structured products ‘fairly’ priced? An analysis of the German market for equity-linked instruments

Based on a unique data set, this paper examines the pricing of equity-linked structured products in the German market. The daily closing prices of a large variety of structured products are compared to theoretical values derived from the prices of options traded on the Eurex (European Exchange). For the majority of products, the study reveals large implicit premiums charged by the issuing banks in the primary market. A set of driving factors behind the issuers’ pricing policies is identified, for example, underlying and type of implicit derivative(s). For the secondary market, the product life cycle is found to be an important pricing parameter.     

A Unifying Microstructure Framework for Modeling Intraday and Interday Asset Pricing Dynamics: the Case of Exchange Rates

A model of the dynamics of intradaily exchange rates is presented. The current Over‐The‐Counter (OTC) exchange rate is the quote of the quoting bank.Two polar cases are considered: (i) If each bank is able to observe the noises relative to the orders of its own clients, then the OTC exchange rate is shown to obey a random walk with a constant conditional variance. (ii) If each bank is not able to observe the noises relative to the orders of its own clients, the OTC exchange rate is no more a random walk and conditional heteroskedasticity appears.