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“美国必须采取行动控制其庞大的预算赤字，否则将面临债券市场危机的风险。” ——前任美联储主席格林斯潘表示，现在的风险在于，已于2010年触及1．3万亿美元的赤字可能会惊吓债券市场。这将导致长期利率迅速上升，并可能引发一轮双底衰退。     

风险安全边界的识别与控制

2007年，由于房市的深度调整和金融衍生产品的风险传染，美国次级债危机爆发，其产生的“多米诺骨牌效应“给美国经济乃至世界经济带来了超乎预期的打击，引发世界债券市场的巨大波动，使得杠杆融资发债计划难以通过，评级最高的债券价格大幅度下降，整个信用体系发生了“可怕”的连锁反应。在反思次级债危机对债券市场的影响时，更应受到关注的并非其可能的直接经济损失，而是从中反映出的”风险安全边界的识别与控制”问题。     

次贷危机对我国信用评级业的启示

评级机构提供的风险情报对于保护由于信息不足而易蒙受债券倒闭损失的投资者将起到重要作用。由于现代金融体系的全球化,以及参与美国次级债券的投资机构众多,美国次级债危机很快在全球蔓延开来,逐步演变成了一场全球信用危机,而一贯被人们寄予厚望的信用评级机构在这场愈演愈烈的危机中却备受指责。这场全球性的信用危机也为我国债券市场信用评级制度的完善提供了有益的启示。     

我国股票市场与债券市场联动的国内外因素分析——基于不同时期的比较研究

本文将2007至2012年分为平常时期、美国金融危机时期和“双危机”叠加时期三个阶段,利用描述性统计及Granger因果检验方法分析了国际金融市场风险传染至我国证券市场的路径;运用动态样本相关系数和动态残差相关系数刻画了不同时期、不同事件窗口下我国股票市场和债券市场联动性的变化特征,并据此分析我国股票市场和债券市场联动的主要原因究竟是来自国际还是国内因素,以使反危机政策更具针对性.     

我国地方债券市场发展的信用问题

近期国内外债券市场新闻不断,美国主权信用评级被下调,长期来看仍存在违约风险。欧洲愈演愈烈。继希腊主权债务危机之后,欧元区主要成员国意大利和法国债务问题牵动市场神经。我国城投债6—7月间遭遇恐慌性抛售,并引发了市场对于信用债整体的恐慌情绪,使得债券收益率普遍升至历史较高水平。来自央行的数据显示,2010年银行间债券市场交易量突破150万亿元,     

中美高收益债券市场发展对比

成长于80年代美国的高收益债券市场是资本市场重要的组成部分,其不仅丰富了融资渠道同时也充分满足了风险偏好性投资者的需求。我国于2012年建立中小企业私募债,成立属于中国的"明日之星"高收益债券市场。然而,相比于美国的高收益债券市场,我国高收益债券市场从市场规模到市场活跃度等均有较大差距。本文梳理美国和中国的高收益债券市场的发展历程,分析两个市场的异同,借此窥探中国高收益债券市场未来的发展趋势。     

中美可转换债券比较研究

通过对中国和美国的可转换债券市场的规模、条款、风险收益特征和套利机会进行对比分析,结果表明中国可转债市场规模仍远不及美国,尤其对创新性中小企业融资需求的支持上差距更大。中国可转债的条款设计更多替发行人考虑,而较少关注投资者的需求,具有明显的扩股融资动机。从风险收益特征和套利机会来看,发现美国可转换债券市场的债性凸显,股性较弱,而中国可转换债券市场具有偏股性。     

美国市政债券市场交易工具与信用风险防范制度及其对我国的启示

美国市政债券市场是世界最发达的市政债券市场，主要的发达表现有：债券交易工具的多样性和信用风险防范制度的多重性。以银行间债券市场为主体的我国债券市场仍处于初级发展阶段，交易工具亟待创新，信用风险防范制度体系急需建立。我国可以考虑借鉴美国市政债券市场的成熟经验，强化我国债券市场交易工具的创新，逐步建立综合的立体式的债券风险防范制度体系，推进我国债券市场的发展。     

美国高收益债券市场对中国中小企业私募债券的借鉴与启示

以发展中国中小企业私募债券的必要性及其现状分析为基础,对美国高收益债券的发展历史和市场特点进行剖析,试图借鉴美国成熟市场的经验探索推动中国中小企业私募债券市场健康、持续发展的方法和措施。将风险长期维持在可控范围内是中小企业私募债券市场发展的关键,应当建立违约风险监控制度,突破违约偿债机制和信用评级体系两方面问题。同时,放宽限制,促进中国中小企业私募债券市场的自由化;加强创新,保持中国中小企业私募债券市场的活力。     

关于发展债券保险业务的思考

发展债券保险将有助于债券市场风险分散分担,提高企业特别是民营企业和中小微企业债券融资能力。目前,保险业务已广泛应用在非标准化债权的信用保证市场,而债券市场主要通过外部增信实现风险分散分担。文章借鉴美国债券保险业务发展经验,探讨了在国内债券市场发展债券保险业务的相关设想。     

The determinants of stock–bond return correlations

I study the options-implied market risks that affect US stock–bond correlations from 2007 to 2021. I discover that US stock and bond market uncertainty, stock market tail risk, and global credit-default risk are dominant contributors to changing stock–bond correlations during the global financial crisis (GFC) period. However, these market risks collectively contribute much less to time-varying correlations in the post-GFC period. Furthermore, stock–bond correlations rise in times of rising US and global bond market risks. Rising stock market uncertainty raises stock–bond correlations in the GFC period but lowers them in the post-GFC period. My results disentangle the risks of stock and bond markets and show that equity tail risk, bond market risk, and stock market uncertainty are dominant factors in changing stock–bond diversification benefits in periods of market turmoil.     

美国商业银行衍生品业务的特点、风险与监管改革

美国衍生品市场起步较早,既经历了繁荣阶段,也经受了金融危机的洗礼与考验,对其他国家衍生品市场发展具有较强的借鉴意义。文章回顾了美国衍生品市场发展历程及特点,剖析了与金融危机爆发有重要关联的场外衍生品市场的风险,介绍了此次美国金融监管改革法案在控制场外衍生品风险方面采取的补救措施,并就金融改革法案的最终出台与实施前景进行了展望。     

美国结构融资市场的变化及启示

美国结构融资市场是其债券市场的重要组成部分。金融危机爆发以来,该市场受到较大的冲击。为此,美国政府出台了一系列措施稳定并规范市场发展,使其逐步恢复了服务于经济复苏的能力。我国的结构融资市场起步较晚,应借鉴美国金融危机的经验和教训,加强市场监管和业务规范,推动市场健康发展,使其更好地服务于货币政策和国民经济。     

欧美国债市场做市商制度分析与比较

考察国外债券市场发展的实践,我们发现做市商制度是活跃国债市场不可缺少的因素,起着举足轻重的作用.目前,我国银行间债券市场虽然也存在做市商制度,但是有行无市的困扰一直存在,形同虚设.本文重点对美国国债市场和欧洲MTS市场的做市商制度进行介绍,以期对我国国债市场做市商制度的发展和完善起到一定的借鉴作用.     

The effect of social screening on bond mutual fund performance

This study measures the financial impact of screening for environmental, social and governance criteria on corporate bond portfolios. Specifically, the risk-adjusted financial performance of 103 socially responsible bond funds in the US and the Eurozone is compared with a matched sample of conventional funds. During the period 2001–2014, socially responsible bond funds outperform by one-half of one percent annually. An evaluation of fund holdings and a performance-attribution analysis suggest that this outperformance is directly related to the mitigation of ESG risks, which is achieved by the exclusion of corporate bond issuers with poor corporate social responsibility activities. A separation of crisis and non-crisis periods further indicates that the outperformance is especially likely to occur during recessions or bear market periods. We confirm this crisis-related return effect from a sample of socially screened bond indices. Moreover, our results are robust to alternative definitions of sustainability, survivorship bias, fund characteristics and stable in the US and Eurozone sub-samples.     

The Effect of US Stock Market Uncertainty on Emerging Market Returns

We investigate the effects of US stock market uncertainty (VIX) on the stock returns in Latin America and aggregate emerging markets before, during, and after the financial crisis. We find that increases in VIX lead to significant immediate and delayed declines in emerging market returns in all periods. However, changes in VIX explained a greater percentage of changes in emerging market returns during the financial crisis than in other periods. The higher US stock market uncertainty exerts a much stronger depressing effect on emerging market returns than their own-lagged and regional returns. Our risk transmission model suggests that a heightened US stock market uncertainty lowers emerging market returns by both reducing the mean returns and raising the variance of returns. The VIX fears raise the volatility of emerging market returns through generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity (GARCH)-type volatility transmission processes.     

Benchmark Status in Fixed-Income Asset Markets

Abstract:  What is a benchmark bond? We provide a formal theoretical treatment of this concept that relates endogenously determined benchmark status to price discovery, and we derive its implications. We describe an econometric technique for identifying the benchmark that is congruent with our theoretical framework. We apply this to the US corporate bond market and to the natural experiment that occurred when benchmark status was contested in the European sovereign bond markets. We show that France provides the benchmark at most maturities in the Euro-denominated sovereign bond market and that IBM provides the benchmark in the US corporate bond market.     

Capture the contagion network of bitcoin – Evidence from pre and mid COVID-19

COVID-19 is the first global scale crisis since the inception of Bitcoin. We compare the contagion phenomenon of Bitcoin and other financial markets or assets pre and during the COVID-19 shock in both contemporaneous and non-contemporaneous manner. This paper uses the directed acyclic graph (DAG), spillover index, and network topology to provide strong evidence on the directional contagion outcomes of Bitcoin and other assets. The empirical results show that the contagion effect between Bitcoin and developed markets is strengthened during the COVID-19 crisis. Particularly, European market has a dominant role. Excluding Bitcoin’s own shocks, United State and European markets are the main contagion sources to Bitcoin. European market also works as a intermediary to deliver infectious from United State and market fear. The findings show that gold always has contagion effect with Bitcoin, while gold, US dollar and bond market are the contagion receivers of Bitcoin under the shock of COVID-19. The empirical results further proved the safe haven, hedge and diversifier potential of Bitcoin in economic stable time, but also shows that the sustainability of these properties is undermined during the market turmoil.     

我国货币政策调整对债券市场及其参与者的影响分析

本文在对2003年以来我国货币政策重大调整进行简要回顾的基础上,通过对中国债券总指数走势的解读,分析了我国债券市场波动与货币政策调整的互动关系,认为货币政策主要可以从资金供应和心理预期两方面对债券市场施加影响,每一次货币政策的变化都会直接导致债券市场行情的大幅上扬或下挫。在这一过程中,作为中国债券市场参与主体的商业银行,由于市场规模、市场机制、交易工具、参与者性质等方面的限制,很难主动地对自身的债券投资组合进行调整,以规避风险。为解决上述矛盾,作者认为,应该从商业银行(市场参与者的主要代表)、债券市场本身以及市场监管者和政策执行者等几方面着手来完善和改进中国债券市场的结构和功能,从而增强以商业银行为主体的债券市场参与者的抵御风险的能力。     

金融危机背景下国际回购市场的最新发展及其对我国的启示

一个国家或地区的回购市场健全成熟与否对于防范流动性危机至关重要。通过分析本次金融危机对国际回购市场的影响以及各国的应对措施,结合我国银行间回购市场的实际情况研究认为,有必要在我国银行间回购市场引入CCP清算和回购第三方服务,它们在危机时刻能够有效降低回购市场的整体信用风险,维持市场流动性。同时,还应该妥当协调抵押品变现问题,提高抵押品的利用率,以及建立应对金融危机的回购市场监管应急预案。