货币错配与银行危机和货币危机

货币错配是新兴市场在经济全球化过程中所无法避免的问题,它具有净外币负债和净外币资产两种表现形式.在新兴市场中,只要其银行体系存在大规模的货币错配,不管表现为哪一种形式,都会增加其金融体系的脆弱性;而且在宏观或微观经济基本面恶化的情况下,可能引发银行危机甚至是货币危机.此外,当出现不利冲击时,银行体系中存在货币错配将会导致其资产和负债的期限错配进一步恶化.     

Private and Public Information in Self-fulfilling Currency Crises

Received November 9, 2000; revised version received July 24, 2001     

防治货币危机的政策措施

本文对预防与应对货币危机的各种政策措施进行探讨。货币危机发生的原因是多方面的 ,其对经济的发展具有诸多不利的影响。要预防货币危机 ,良好的经济基础是根本的保障 ,市场参与者的信心同样是重要的。应急性政策措施必须与基础性政策措施相结合 ,才能消除危机。     

Self-fulfilling Currency Crises and Central Bank Independence

We develop a model of a fixed exchange rate peg arrangement derived from the Barro–Gordon model of rules versus discretion. It is shown that the fixed peg is vulnerable to self-fulfilling currency crises in which the unemployment rate increases, the credibility of the rule decreases, but, paradoxically, the reputation of the policy-maker improves. Delegating monetary policy to an independent central banker does not prevent this type of crisis from arising, and can even make it more costly.
JEL Classification: F 3; F 4     

银行危机与货币危机共生性关系的实证研究

1 997— 1 998年的亚洲金融风暴中 ,银行危机与货币危机的同时爆发 ,即共生性危机的发生引发国际社会与学术界对这种现象的重新思考 :这种共生性现象是否确实具有普遍性 ?从理论的角度来看 ,银行危机与货币危机之间的确存在着一定的联系 ,但到目前为止 ,很少有研究从实证的角度来证明这种联系的确存在。正是基于此 ,本文从实证的角度出发 ,旨在揭示出银行危机与货币危机之间的确存在着相互影响 ,换言之 ,共生性危机的发生是具有显著性的。具体来说 ,本文以 1 975— 2 0 0 0年期间 53个国家危机的发生情况为研究对象 ,分别运用频率分布、信号法 ,以及概率回归模型来分析两种危机的共生性 ,并得到非常一致的结论 :在新兴市场国家中 ,银行危机与货币危机之间的确存在着明显的相互关系 ,同时银行危机更趋向于作为货币危机即将发生的同步或预警指标 ,而反之则不然。     

货币危机传染理论评析

本文首先界定了货币危机传染及其经济表象 ,然后比较分析了各种货币危机传染模型。而根据众多的实证研究结论 ,也可以证明货币危机传染理论模型的有效性。     

A Fiscal Theory of Currency Crises

An exchange rate crisis is caused when the fiscal authority lets the present value of primary surpluses, inclusive of seigniorage, deviate from the value of government debt at the pegged exchange rate. In the absence of long-term government bonds, the exchange rate collapse must be instantaneous. With long-term government bonds, the collapse can be delayed at the discretion of the monetary authority. Fiscal policy is responsible for the inevitability of a crisis, while monetary policy determines its characteristics, that is, the timing of the crisis and the magnitude of exchange rate depreciation.     

Capital Controls,Public Debt and Currency Crises

This paper examines the possibility that, contrary to conventional wisdom, capital controls accelerate currency crises. Theoretical analysis shows that capital controls can constitute an additional burden on government budget and so bring forward the onset of crises. Since perfect capital mobility does not occur, domestic interest rates may deviate from world interest rates. High interest rates under capital controls create an additional cost of servicing outstanding domestic public debt, precipitating crises. Even though the government can delay crises with capital controls, welfare may be less than in a situation with perfect capital mobility.     

Empirical Indicators of Currency Crises in East Asia

The paper is concerned with identifying useful indicators of the probability of currency crises in Indonesia, Malaysia, the Philippines, South Korea and Thailand over a period of 22 years, where a currency crisis is defined as a large and infrequent devaluation of a local currency. The leading crisis indicators include international and domestic factors; but they are dominated by the leading indicators from the financial sector, such as the ratio of short-term debt to foreign reserves, the ratio of M2 to foreign reserves, and the indicator representing a regional contagion effect. This result is interpreted as pointing to external illiquidity together with adverse shifts in the market sentiment as the likely catalyst for the 1997–98 East Asia crisis.     

理性政府下的货币危机及其传染

在理性政府的假设下,货币危机均衡具有多重性、唯一性以及传染性。在货币投机攻击成本和收益固定的模型中,经济基本面处于危机区时,基本面的不确定性并不能消除多重均衡;当货币投机攻击成本和收益都与经济基本面相关时,不管是静态模型还是动态模型,货币危机的均衡都是唯一的。而当其他国家的货币贬值时,本国维持固定汇率的收益和放弃固定汇率的信誉损失均下降,致使本国政府倾向于放弃固定汇率。     

Currency Crises, Monetary Policy and Corporate Balance Sheets

Abstract. This paper studies how the exposure of a country's corporate sector to interest rate and exchange rate changes affects the probability of a currency crisis. To analyze this question, we present a model that defines currency crises as situations in which the costs of maintaining a fixed exchange rate exceed the costs of abandonment. The results show that a higher exposure to interest rate changes increases the probability of crisis through an increased need for output loss compensation and an increased efficacy of monetary policy in stimulating output. A higher exposure to exchange rate changes also increases the need for output loss compensation. However, it lowers the efficacy of monetary policy in stimulating output through the adverse balance sheet effects of exchange rate depreciation. As a result, its effect on the probability of crisis is ambiguous.     

香港货币局制度理论综述

货币局制度在香港实施20多年来基本上运行平稳。但经历过亚洲金融危机和阿根廷经济危机后，对于香港货币局制度出现了较大的争论。本文对近年来理论界对货币局的理论作了一个归纳，对其主要理论从利、弊和改进方案三个方面进行介绍，并对其进行分析，以期为更深层的研究提供支持。     

Monetary Policy in the Aftermath of Currency Crises: The Case of Asia

The paper evaluates monetary policy and its relationship with the exchange rate in the five Asian crisis countries. The findings are compared with previous currency crises in recent history. It is found that there is no evidence of overly tight monetary policy in the Asian crisis countries in 1997 and early 1998. There is also no evidence that high interest rates led to weaker exchange rates. The usual tradeoff between inflation and output when raising interest rates suggested the need for a softer monetary policy in the crisis countries to combat recession. However, in some countries, corporate balance sheet considerations suggested the need to reverse overly depreciated currencies through firmer monetary policy.     

Learning,Large Deviations,And Recurrent Currency Crises*

This article studies a version of Obstfeld's (Journal of International Economics 43 (1997), 61–77) “escape clause” model. The model is calibrated to produce three rational expectations equilibria. Two of these equilibria are E‐stable and one is unstable. Dynamics are introduced by assuming that agents must learn about the government's decision rule. It is assumed they do this using a stochastic approximation algorithm. It turns out that as a certain parameter describing the sensitivity of beliefs to new information gets small, the algorithm converges to a small noise diffusion process. The dynamics of exchange rate changes are then characterized using large deviation techniques from Freidlin and Wentzell (Random Perturbations of Dynamical Systems, Second Edition, Berlin: Springer‐Verlag, 1998). These methods describe the sense in which the limiting distribution of exchange rate changes is approximated by a two‐state Markov‐Switching process, where the two states correspond to the two E‐stable equilibria. The model is calibrated to the exchange rate histories of Argentina, Brazil, and Mexico. Currency crises in these countries resemble the predicted “escape routes” of the model. A key feature of these escape routes is that expectations of a devaluation erupt suddenly, without large contemporaneous shocks. This is consistent with evidence showing that crises are often poorly anticipated by financial markets.     

发展中国家的资本账户开放与货币危机实证研究

本文采用1985-1999年泰国、印度、印度尼西亚、韩国、马来西亚和菲律宾的季度数据,选取几个重要指标,运用面板数据的方法,从货币危机的视角进行了实证研究,认为发展中国家的资本账户开放有引发货币危机的可能,但是这种可能性与一国的经济基础条件关系密切,因此,为了避免和缓解发生货币危机的风险,发展中国家应在实现内外均衡和深化金融改革的前提下开放资本账户.     

An Intertemporal Currency Board

The paper shows that the traditional wisdom of raising interest rates to defend a currency enriches rather than punishes the speculators. Furthermore, using high interest rates as a currency defense tool often produces the opposite effect in times of crisis. A new approach is proposed of using Hong Kong dollar put options as an explicit commitment by the government. The put option itself acts like an intertemporal currency board in keeping the linked exchange rate over time. This costly signaling produces a separating equilibrium that distinguishes the strength of the Hong Kong dollar from the other Asian currencies that were under pressure in 1997.     

The Asian Currency Crises: Vulnerability, Contagion, or Unsustainability

The Asian currency crises have been introduced by many economists as evidence that almost any country could be vulnerable to speculative attacks and to contagion effects, even with apparently good economic fundamentals. These financial crises have also been interpreted by other economists as rational market reactions to the unsustainability of domestic macroeconomic policies or structural weaknesses. The objective of this paper is to evaluate the relative importance of macroeconomic unsustainability, financial vulnerability, and crisis contagion in a model that explains and predicts the Asian currency crises. Out-of-sample forecasts based on two-stage panel and logit regressions provide evidence of a pure contagion effect, which significantly worsened the crises. They also show that Indonesia was the only one of the six Asian nations examined (India, Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, South Korea, Thailand) that was in an unsustainable economic situation, and that the other five nations were only vulnerable to a currency crisis.     

关于香港联系汇率制度可持续性的研究

本文首先比较了阿根廷与香港的汇率机制，它们虽然在形式上接近，但是两者有许多根本的不同。香港的联系汇率制度有来自中国内地在各个方面的强有力的支持。这种支持在其他采取货币局制度的国家里几乎看不到。这就是中国香港联系汇率制度的特点。由于货币局的弊端显现，使得越来越多的市场经济国家倾向于“美元化”。本文采取“协整检验”的办法，分析了将来港币“美元化”与“人民币化”的可能性。以是否存在协整关系作为判定尺度。虽然检验结果表明香港的一些经济变量与美国的有较强的协整关系，这是由于联系汇率制本身的缘故，但是出于政治、地理和其他要素的考虑，事实上港币美元化是行不通的；香港与中国内地的协整关系虽然较弱，但是将来港币人民币化的可能性还是存在的。     

Currency Internationalization and the International Price System

Although China, now the world’s second largest economy and largest goods trading nation, has rolled out the ambitious currency internationalization protocol while maintaining strict capital controls for nearly a decade, the implications of this unique reform path on the international economy still present uncertainties. In this paper, we fill in this gap by developing a two country, two-goods model to investigate the impacts of currency internationalization on the international price system, which consists of goods market and factor market interactions. We propose a critical condition of sustainable currency internationalization and reveal high international price sensitivity to exchange rate adjustments.