对中国外汇储备与物价指数之间数量关系的研究——基于货币供求角度的实证分析

近年来,我国外汇储备规模不断扩大。到2003年底,央行公布的外汇储备数字是4032亿美元。那么,外汇储备的增加对我国的物价指数的变动是否产生影响以及影响有多大?对这一问题的研究越来越受到学界的关注。而对这一问题的不同研究结论将形成不同的货币政策主张。本文以国际货币主义的通货膨胀传导机制为理论基础,分析我国外汇储备变动与物价指数之间的数量关系。     

中国外汇储备增长对物价水平的影响

外汇储备快速增长与物价水平上升已成为我国经济中的两个突出问题。目前中外学者关于外汇储备与物价水平之间关系存在着不同观点;基于中央银行的资产负债表和货币数量理论,对外汇储备增长对物价水平的影响进行理论分析;表明：从长期来看,我国外汇储备增长可以通过影响货币供应量而间接影响消费物价指数,从而增加物价上涨的压力。     

中国当前通货膨胀成因的模型分析

本文研究了我国当前这轮通货膨胀的主要特点,在此基础上,选取中国2003-2009年相关统计数据,通过建立静态回归模型、向量自回归模型(VAR)以及方差分析深入探讨了通货膨胀与各影响因素之间的关系.实证分析表明,国际原油、粮食及金属类等初级产品价格大幅上涨、人民币汇率的大幅升值、外汇储备的增加以及低利率导致的国内投资的放...     

我国的外汇储备与通货膨胀

近年来,我国外汇储备规模迅猛增长,截至2006年6月,已高达9411亿美元,超过日本成为全球持有外汇储备最多的国家。那么外汇储备的增加对我国的物价指数的变动是否产生影响以及影响有多大？本文以国际货币主义的通货膨胀传导机制为理论基础．应用协整分析法、格兰杰因果关系分析法．分析物价水平与外汇储备之间的因果关系、长期均衡关系,在实证结果基础上得出结论并分析结果。     

FDI对我国外汇储备影响的实证分析

本文通过建立回归模型，定量测度了FDI对我国外汇储备增长的影响程度。结果表明，我国外汇储备与FDI之间呈非线性相关关系，存在着极显著的指数函数关系。运用回归分析，通过对中国与印度的外汇储备微观结构的比较，分析了中国的FDI对外汇储备影响大的原因。     

我国外汇储备影响因素的实证研究

外汇储备应该保持一个合理规模。文章首先对影响外汇储备的主要因素进行稳定性检验，在此基础上对外汇储备与这些影响因素之间的长期关系进行协整检验，建立了它们的长期均衡方程，并根据格兰杰定理，建立了误差修正模型。     

我国货币需求量的影响因素分析

本文通过建立采用多元线性模型,对国内生产总值、银行存款利率、消费物价指数等因素对我国货币需求量的影响进行了实证分析。显示结果：货币需求量与国内生产总值、银行存款利率呈正相关关系,与消费物价指数呈负相关关系。     

外汇储备与人民币汇率的联动影响机制 基于汇改前后中国货币政策和国际贸易的实证研究

从国际贸易与货币政策角度出发,利用向量误差修正(VEC模型)的方法构建了一个涵盖影响汇率与外汇储备变动主要因素的理论机制模型。通过实证分析阐述汇改前后外汇储备变动与汇率变动的影响路径以及二者之间的联动影响机制,解读理论机制中各个变量在汇改前后的政策含义及其变化,最终得出相应结论并提出政策建议。     

流动性过剩影响因素的实证分析

通过货币的供求对比测度出流动性过剩,采用主成分分析方法研究了流动性过剩的影响因素。实证结果表明,货币存量的持续高位、经济增长、持续低利率与人民币升值、物价指数的高涨、外汇储备和净出口增加导致流动性过剩,资产价格与流动性过剩之间存在反向关系,各因素之间存在着交互影响。实证结果与理论分析结论高度吻合。     

外汇储备增长、美国债增持与中国通货膨胀的互动关系研究——基于代表性个人效用最大化的分析视角

研究证明,在代表性个人与政府效用最大化的情形下,存在由对外购买政府债券引发的通货膨胀上涨的经济路径。而中央银行集中持有居民外汇储备并进行投资的行为可以改变上述路径的传导机制,但无法消除外汇储备增加对通货膨胀上涨的牵引作用。本文就中国持有的外汇储备、美国国债及通货膨胀水平进行了实证分析,并提出了相关建议。     

A Rich Vein for “Reality Mining”北大核心CSSCISSCI

Arik Hesseldahl In the aftermath of the September 11 attacks, U.S. officials quickly turned their attention to other potential targets, including California's Golden Gate Bridge. What would happen if terrorists took down the bridge between San Francisco and Marin County? How much of the region would be affected and for how long?     

John Stuart Mill's Theory Of Justice

John Stuart Mill has traditionally been portrayed as self-contradictory and failing to construct a unified social theory. Recent scholarship, however, has challenged this view, finding Mill's work to be creatively synthetic in bridging the antinomies inherent in liberal democratic thought. This revisionist interpretation of Mill is advanced by an understanding of his theory of justice and its role in shaping his policy positions on issues such as welfare, education, voting rights, property rights, taxation, government intervention, and the future of capitalism.     

中国养活自己能力的长期预测:技术和政策分析

中国拥有世界五分之一强的人口 ,收入又在迅速增长。因此 ,国际上很自然地会考虑或推测她在今后的几十年是否有能力养活自己。中国的人口预计将从 2 0 0 0年的 1 2 8亿增长到 2 0 2 0年的 1 4 6亿 ,和 2 0 3 0年的 1 4 9亿。与此同时 ,人均收入的增长将导致对家畜和鱼类产品更大的需求 ,因而对饲料的需求也将有很大的增长     

John Stuart Mill's Theories of Wealth and Income Distribution

Although he was much influenced by David Ricardo when he wrote the classical part of his Principles , John Stuart Mill was not a Ricardian when he penned his theories of wealth and distribution. They are based on a triple foundation. First, a belief that economics is a moral discipline. Second a theory of custom-driven human behavior. Third, an empirically formed conviction that the institutions of state, education and business cooperate to structure the distribution of income. On the basis of these presuppositions, Mill formulated 1) an institutional theory of the formation of human and non-human wealth and 2) an even more institutional theory of distribution demonstrating how the aforementioned institutions malignantly skew the distribution of income to the advantage of the propertied classes and to the extreme disadvantage of the working class. As a social economist, Mill recommended institutional reforms designed to eradicate the poverty of the working class.     

Toward a Phylogenetic Reconstruction of Organizational Life

Synopsis Classification is an important activity that facilitates theory development in many academic disciplines. Scholars in fields such as organizational science, management science and economics and have long recognized that classification offers an approach for ordering and understanding the diversity of organizational taxa (groups of one or more similar organizational entities). However, even the most prominent organizational classifications have limited utility, as they tend to be shaped by a specific research bias, inadequate units of analysis and a standard neoclassical economic view that does not naturally accommodate the disequilibrium dynamics of modern competition. The result is a relatively large number of individual and unconnected organizational classifications, which tend to ignore the processes of change responsible for organizational diversity. Collectively they fail to provide any sort of universal system for ordering, compiling and presenting knowledge on organizational diversity. This paper has two purposes. First, it reviews the general status of the major theoretical approaches to biological and organizational classification and compares the methods and resulting classifications derived from each approach. Definitions of key terms and a discussion on the three principal schools of biological classification (evolutionary systematics, phenetics and cladistics) are included in this review. Second, this paper aims to encourage critical thinking and debate about the use of the cladistic classification approach for inferring and representing the historical relationships underpinning organizational diversity. This involves examining the feasibility of applying the logic of common ancestry to populations of organizations. Consequently, this paper is exploratory and preparatory in style, with illustrations and assertions concerning the study and classification of organizational diversity.     

Information infrastructure: Who builds broadband networks?

This paper examines the essential difference between the U.S. and Japan, when one considers information infrastructure. There are seven perception gaps between the U.S. and Japan concerning Information Infrastructure policies. These gaps must be understood in order to compare the countries' governmental policies in this area. In looking at the present circumstances, the essential question to answer concerns who is to build, own and operate the network(s) of the infrastructure. Liberalization is certain to be a central factor in the ongoing telecommunications debates. Now that customers have had a taste of the liberalized market-place, the movement toward more open markets will be difficult to stop. When considering options, it is necessary to pay close attention to standardized network access and the increasingly important role software plays. These issues are causing us to take a new approach to the traditional role played by regulators. They also force a closer look at the appropriate structure of utility companies. This paper addresses the above issues in hopes of stimulating dialog on the new telecommunications infrastructure paradigm.     

海岛地区产业演替及资源基础分析--以舟山群岛为例

改革开放以来,舟山市产业构成发生了显著变化,其经济发展过程可以划分为三个阶段。1992年前,是以产业结构渔业占绝对地位的单一结构阶段;1993—1998年,以旅游业为主的第三产业快速发展阶段;上世纪末以来,又进入了新一轮的经济发展时期,即工业产值比重快速增加阶段。根据海岛的自然资源基础和特点,在新世纪的经济发展过程中,舟山市应定位为生态型的港口旅游城市。以港口及临港工业为主导,以海岛旅游和海洋经济为特色,大力发展第二产业和第三产业。海岛地区的主导产业应体现海岛资源优势及区位优势,以集群性环保型产业为主。同时由于海岛地区淡水资源缺乏,主导产业也应着重选择低耗水型产业。     

风险视角下企业治理结构和研发创新——基于委托代理模型的研究

本文基于委托代理模型,从风险的视角研究企业治理结构对研发创新能力的影响。本文构建了一个包含创新活动的委托代理模型进行理论分析,利用动态DEA 模型测算创新能力,并使用2015-2018年我国上市制造业企业数据进行实证检验。实证部分检验了理论结论:委托代理问题不利于企业提升研发创新能力,且客观风险和主观风险厌恶会加剧该负面影响。基于此,本文认为上市企业应根据企业自身研发活动特点有针对性地改善企业治理结构,提出了适当延长代理人任期、推动股权激励计划、提升代理人的风险承担能力等建议。     

研发过程模型优化——研发过程任意阶段知识运作模型研究

本文拟通过对三个现有研发过程模型的评述,结合其他相关文献的回顾以及当前企业界所能够提供的技术服务,对研发过程模型予以优化,并尝试提出了‘研发过程任意阶段知识运作模型”来探讨“知识在研发过程中究竟是如何运作的”的问题,以期能够为当前的企业界和学术界的研发过程运作模式的完善提供有益参考。