基于重标极差法（R／S）对金融市场非线性动力学特性的解构

本文从四个方面就R／S分析法及其在金融市场中的应用进行了解构：（1）R／S法的基本要点和具体操作步骤；（2）运用R／S法分析金融市场非线性特性和演化规律的动力学意义；（3）R/S分析法对时间序列具有普适性；（4）提高R／S法有效性的措施。     

基于分形市场理论的开放式基金风险分析

有效市场是现代金融学理论的基石,也是数量化金融市场理论的核心.有效市场是建立在收益率时间序列数据必须满足正态分布基础上,但是大量的实证分析发现,收益率时间序列数据并非完全或者不满足正态分布,为此Edgar·E·Peters提出了分形市场假说,分形市场理论假定收益率时间序列服从分形分布,其核心是Hurst提出的R/S分析法(Hurst指数),通过R/S法计算Hurst指数H,并由此得到分形维数α,通过分形维度量投资风险.利用分形市场理论,选取大成基金管理公司中的开放式股票型基金大成创新基金实证分析,用收益率时间序列的分形维度量风险,判定基金十大重仓股个股以及投资组合的风险大小,并且对投资组合进行优化,求出最优投资比例.     

关于建立银行同业拆放市场的设想

银行资金同业拆放市场是金融市场的一种形式。金融市场是一个广义的大概念,具体说,它包括:货币市场、资本市场、外汇市场、黄金市场等。而资金同业拆放市场属于货币市场的一种。为什么我们提出建立银行资金同业拆放市场,而不提建立金融市场呢? 首先,目前建立一个大范围的较全面的金融市场,条件尚不成熟。因为:(1)股份经济还不发展,不能提供交易用的各种股票,因而金融市场的建立有赖于经济股份化的进程;(2)银行信用处于垄断地位,其他信用形式还不开展,因此缺少建立金融市场的足够需求;(3)货币经济还不发达,旧的金融机制没有打破。对微观金融来说,银行企业化经营还未摊开。对宏观金融来说,中央银行缺少有效的经济控制机制。因此金融市场缺少一个经营者和管理者;(4)金融资金和产业资金还处于分离状态,这对金融市场的融资活动是一种障碍。     

我国股市股价动态行为的实证分析

最先由Hurst所提出的R/S分析法,主要是考察Hurst指数。本文正是在此基础上,以上证180指数的周收盘价的对数收益率序列为样本数据,利用R/S分析法来分析股票价格时间序列的趋势性,建立合理的线性回归模型,得出实证分析结论。     

当前金融市场发展的十个制约方面

87年5月下旬在郑州召开的金融市场理论讨论会上,代表们认为,我国现阶段的金融市场受到各方面制约,具体有以下十方面:(1)商品经济不发达,社会资金短缺,限制了融资范围和规模;(2)信用工具不多不活,资金交易的传导功能不健全;(3)银行“大锅饭”未破,基层专业行缺乏参加金融市场的自主权和内在动力;(4)中央银行对融资活动的调控手段不健全;(5)资金市场的价格受现行利率政策规定过死的限制,不能灵活发挥杠杆作用;(6)各家银行在融资活动中,存在着霸山头,争中心,制约着资金的最佳流     

我国基金风格资产收益长记忆性分析——基于修正R/S方法的研究

证券市场是个典型的非线性复杂系统。本文运用修正R/S分析法对我国基金风格资产收益单一分形的基本统计特征进行检验,并与经典R/S方法进行对比分析。研究结果表明:在日、周、月等三种时间标度下Hurst指数均显著大于0.5,表现为持久相关性特征,说明股市风格具有长记忆性;从经典R/S分析结果看,我国股市风格具有显著的分形结构特征,风格资产指数收益率序列具有长记忆性,不同风格资产的业绩具有不同的周期性。     

股市分形投资策略及其有效性研究

证券市场的分形现象已得到国内外大量文献证实。本文运用经典R/S、修正R/S、V/S和修正V/S分析法,引入并行计算的原理来简化数据计算,对我国上证综指、深证成指和贵州茅台股价序列的分形特征进行检验并予以比较。结果发现：上述四种分析法均能得出上证综指、深证成指和贵州茅台股价序列存在一定程度的持续性分形特征的结论;V/S分形策略和修正V/S分形策略的投资效果与基准投资策略相比均是有效的,而经典R/S分形策略在股价处于稳定上升行情时才能获得较好的投资收益。因此,修正V/S分形策略相比其它三种分形策略能够获得更稳定的投资收益。     

发展碳金融市场与我国经济发展模式转型

碳金融市场是近些年来国际金融领域新生的最为重要的金融市场之一,这一概念兴起于《京都议定书》的签订。2007年,美国学者索尼亚·拉巴特(Sonia Labatt)和罗德尼R.怀特(Rodney R.White)撰写《碳金融》一书,详细阐述了碳金融的运作机制。国内一些学者也已经开展了这方面的研究。笔者认为在中国发展碳金融市场,要将其置于我国现阶段倡导的经济发展转型的大背景中,但相应成果并不多见。本文试就在我国国情下发展碳金融市场的相关问题进行初步分析和探讨。     

流动性冲击、货币政策失误与金融危机——对美国金融危机的反思

本文认为:(1)流动性冲击主要通过资产负债表渠道和资产价格渠道来影响金融市场,正是这两种渠道才使得流动性在金融危机爆发及传导的过程中扮演了重要角色。借款人的资产负债表效应导致损失螺旋和保证金螺旋的产生,造成资产的折价销售,推动了资产价格的下跌和进一步的银根紧缩;(2)房地产泡沫的形成与美联储的货币政策失误、金融市场结构变化、新布雷顿森林体系以及投资者的羊群行为等有关,房地产泡沫破灭是美国金融危机的导火索;(3)金融危机爆发后,美联储通过调整中央银行的资产负债表,推出各种形式的金融创新工具,向金融市场注入流动性,有效地降低了金融市场崩溃的概率。论文最后从流动性管理的角度,对美国金融危机进行了反思。     

从国家监管到欧洲监管:通向统一欧洲金融监管当局之路

单一欧洲金融市场欧洲进行金融改革,不仅是为了降低未来金融危机爆发的几率,也是为了强化内部市场。为欧洲金融服务和金融机构创建一个真正的单一金融市场,是我们首要的金融和政治目标。目前我们距该目标还有很长的距离。事实上,欧洲金融业正面临着一个三难困境:(1)金融一体化,特别是金融服务的自由化;(2)金融系统的稳定性;(3)对金融机构的管制和监督仍主要依赖于各成员国的自主决策和决定。     

Long-Term Memory and Applying the Multi-Factor ARFIMA Models in Financial Markets

Exploiting the classical R/S and modified R/S analysis, we first reveal theevidence of long-term memory in liquidity, volume, and volatility. Thereafter,we estimate the fractionally integrated autoregressive movingaverage ARFIMA models by both the exact-maximum likelihood (EML) and themodified-profile likelihood (MPL) methods. Furthermore, based on the theoryof financial economics, we extend the simple ARFIMA models to the Multi-FactorARFIMA models by incorporating the mutual relationships among financial marketvariables and present the effectiveness of the Multi-Factor ARFIMA models infinancial markets.     

The Dynamic Extreme Co-Movement between Chinese Stock Market and Global Stock Markets

ABSTRACT

We use time-varying Symmetrized Joe-Clayton Copula model to study the extreme co-movement (boom or crash together) between the Chinese stock market and major stock markets in the world from 2007 to 2017, including developed markets and stock markets on “Belt and Road Initiative” (hereafter B.R.I.). We find that the extreme co-movement probability between Chinese market and “Belt and Road Initiative” markets is higher than developed markets at both tails. Then we study important “real” and “non-fundamental” factors affecting the excess co-movement probability, including bilateral trade openness, financial integration, and economic policy uncertainty. The results of panel regression analysis show that: the bilateral financial integration has significant effects over the lower tail dependence between Chinese and developed markets, but does not affect the extreme co-movement between Chinese and B.R.I. markets. And the bilateral trade openness is an important factor for the extreme co-movement at both tail between Chinese and global markets. The economic policy uncertainty index, especially China’s economic policy uncertainty, plays a key role in the extreme co-movement between Chinese and developed markets at both tails. However, it has sizable effects only at the upper tail co-movement between Chinese and B.R.I. markets.     

Impact of Market Expectations on the U.S. Interest Rate Lift-Off in ASEAN-5 Financial System

During 2015–2016, the market has lowered its expectations on the pace and magnitude of U.S. interest rate lift-off, which should have reduced capital outflow and supported the ASEAN-5 financial markets. Yet, the ASEAN-5 financial markets have recorded mixed fortunes, possibly due to spikes in global risk (proxied by CBOE VIX index). Against the contrasting background of higher global risk and gradual interest rate lift-off, this paper investigates the impact of market expectations on U.S. interest rate on the ASEAN-5 financial markets. This paper concludes that both global risk and market expectations on interest rate lift-off affect the ASEAN-5 financial markets, whereby the negative effect of higher global risk dominates the positive effect of market expectations of gradual interest rate lift-off in the ASEAN-5 currencies and equity markets. However, it is the reverse in the ASEAN-5 sovereign bonds as the positive impact of market expectations of more gradual interest rate lift-off dominates the negative effect of higher global risk.

     

Financial Markets and Economic Growth*

In this reprinting of the Nobel Prize‐winning financial economist's classic statement about the origins of financial crises, the Southeast Asian crisis of the late 1990s is attributed “not to too much reliance on financial markets, but to too little.” Like the U.S. economy a century ago, the emerging Asian economies did not then—and do not now—have well‐developed capital markets and remain heavily dependent on their banking systems to finance growth. But for all its benefits, banking is not only basically 19th‐century technology, but disaster‐prone technology. And in the summer of 1997, a banking‐driven disaster struck in East Asia, just as it had struck so many times before in U.S. history. During the 20th century, the author argues, the U.S. economy reduced its dependence on banks by developing “dispersed and decentralized” financial markets. In so doing, it increased the efficiency of the capital allocation process and reduced the economy's vulnerability to the credit crunches that have recurred throughout U.S. history. By contrast, Japan has not reduced its economy's dependence on banks, and its efforts to deal with its banking problems during the crisis of the late'90s served only to destabilize itself as well as its neighbors. Developing countries in Asia and elsewhere are urged not to follow the Japanese example, but to take measures aimed at developing financial markets and institutions that will either substitute for or, in some cases, complement bank products and services.     

Financial Markets and Economic Growth

The current economic problems in Southeast Asia can be attributed not to too much reliance on financial markets, but to too little . Like the U.S. economy a century ago, the emerging Asian economies do not have welldeveloped capital markets and so remain heavily dependent on their banking systems to finance growth.
For all its benefits, banking is "not only basically 19th-century technology, but disaster-prone technology." The extreme maturity (and, in some cases, currency) mismatch on banks' balance sheets plus the first-come, first-served nature of the deposit obligations mean that banks are inherently vulnerable to massive runs by depositors—and that their economies are subjected to periodic credit crunches. And, as the author says, "in the summer of 1997 a banking-driven disaster struck in East Asia, just as it had struck so many times before in U.S. history."
In this century, In this century, the U.S. economy has steadily reduced its dependence on banks by developing "dispersed and decentralized" financial markets. In so doing, it has increased the efficiency of the U.S. capital allocation process and reduced its susceptibility to the credit crunches that have occurred throughout U.S. history. By contrast, Japan has not reduced its economy's dependence on banks, and its efforts to deal with its banking problems have served only to destabilize itself as well as its neighbors. Developing countries in Southeast Asia and elsewhere are urged not to follow the Japanese example, but to take measures aimed at developing financial markets and institutions that will either substitute for or complement bank products and services.     

Sources of Fluctuations in Islamic,U.S., EU,and Asia Equity Markets: The Roles of Economic Uncertainty,Interest Rates,and Stock Indexes

This article analyzes the economic and financial sources of fluctuations among the U.S. federal funds rates, the U.S. economic policy uncertainty, and the indices of the U.S., European, Asian, and Islamic stock markets. The impulse response analysis shows that the U.S. economic policy uncertainty shocks have significant and negative effects unanimously on the U.S., European, Asian, and Islamic stock markets. A contractionary monetary policy shock, in terms of a higher federal funds rate, has also a statistically significant and negative effect on all of the stock markets. The variance decomposition results indicate that the Islamic stock index is mainly affected by the U.S. stock index shock, thus negating its dichotomy hypothesis. The U.S. economic uncertainty shock explains an important portion of fluctuations for all four stock indices. The degree of synchronization between the EU stock market and other markets has weakened after the U.S. financial crisis.     

Taper Tantrum and Emerging Equity Market Slumps

In the post-global financial crisis period, the central banks of the advanced economies pursued unconventional monetary policies, such as the United States (U.S.) Federal Reserve’s quantitative easing (QE). Those policies and their unwinding may significantly affect cross-border capital flows and thus destabilize the financial systems of emerging markets. For example, emerging markets experienced substantial financial instability during the taper tantrum triggered by U.S. Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke’s May 2013 announcement of the potential unwinding of QE. In this article, we examine the spillovers from the taper tantrum on emerging markets more rigorously by using econometric analysis to empirically assess the effect on equity markets in emerging markets. Our central finding that virtually all emerging-market equity markets were affected by the taper tantrum highlights the need for emerging-market authorities to remain vigilant about the effects of advanced-economy monetary policies on their financial stability.     

Integration in the mortgage market

The deregulatory trend and advances in technology during the 1980s removed many restrictions on the ability of U.S. depository financial institutions to obtain and redistribute funds across diverse geographical markets. This pervasive deregulation and innovation should have increased the degree of integration between different geographical financial markets. Yet there is little empirical evidence available on the validity of this expectation. It is important to provide such evidence since much of the U.S. depository institution regulatory policy is predicated on the assumption of highly localized, segmented financial markets. Considering alternative breakpoints at 1980 (DIDMCA) and at 1982 (Garn-St Germain), the current study tests the hypothesis that the degree of geographical financial integration after this period exceeded that prior to this period. Mortgage markets are focused on due to their historical importance in the regulation of funds flows. The study finds a significant increase in the mean contemporaneous correlation among FHLB districts' mortagage rate residuals in a vector-autoregressive system between two test periods. Further analysis shows that the distance between FHLB districts' headquarters and their respective pairwise interdistrict correlation coefficients are negatively related in the prior period but not significantly related in the later period. Economic booms and busts alternated among the districts over the two sample periods in a manner consistent with the reallocation of capital among more integrated financial markets. Individual districts' mortgage rates have been more sensitive to variations in national credit market conditions since deregulation was legally recognized by DIDMCA in 1980. Thus, the collective empirical evidence found in this study indicates that mortgage markets have responded to deregulation and marked technological advances by moving toward a national, highly integrated market. Regulators' preoccupation with highly localized, segmented markets must consequently be reexamined.     

U.S. Monetary Policy Surprises and International Securitized Real Estate Markets

This paper examines the impact of U.S. monetary policy surprises on securitized real estate markets in 18 countries. The policy surprises are measured by both the surprise changes to the target federal funds rate (the target factor) and surprises in the future direction of the Federal Reserve monetary policy (the path factor). The results show that most international securitized real estate markets have significantly positive responses to surprise decrease in current or future expected federal funds rates, though such responses vary greatly across countries. Also, while the U.S. securitized real estate market reacts mainly to the target factor, foreign securitized real estate markets react to the path factor. Furthermore, we find that the cross-country variation in the response to the target factor is correlated with the country’s exchange rate regime and its degree of real economic and particularly financial integration, while the cross-country variation in the response to the path factor is mainly related to the country’s degree of financial integration.     

Dependence and mean reversion in stock prices: The case of the MENA region

This paper provides empirical evidence on the long memory behavior of the stock markets of Egypt, Jordan, Morocco, and Turkey. To test for long memory in the returns and volatility, we employ the modified rescaled range statistic R/S proposed by Lo [Lo, A.W., 1991. Long-term memory in stock market prices. Econometrica 59, 1279–1313] and the recently proposed rescaled variance V/S statistic developed by Giraitis et al. [Giraitis, L., Kokoszka, P.S. Leipus, R., Teyssiere, G., 2003. Rescaled variance and related tests for long memory in volatility and levels. J. Econ. 112, 265–294]. Further analysis is conducted by employing the ARFIMA (p, d, q) model to estimate the long memory parameters. Egypt and Morocco show evidence of long memory in the return series, while Jordan and Turkey display negative persistence. For the volatility series, long memory is conclusively demonstrated for all markets. Then, we compare the forecasting performance of ARMA and ARFIMA models and find that the ARFIMA model outperforms in out-of-sample forecasting of the markets. Our results should be useful to regulators, practitioners and derivative market participants, whose success depends on the ability to forecast stock price movements in these markets.