Puzzling stakeholder views for long-term planning in the bio-economy: A back-casting application

Planning long-term actions in the South of Italy is often characterised by a ‘vicious circle of non-participation’. Stakeholders are increasingly not aware of the relevant role they have in supporting policy-making processes, even if they are usually keen to express their opinions. The aim of the study is to suggest policy-makers and practitioners a way to change their approach to long-term strategies definition in areas with traditionally scarce experience in stakeholder participation and where ‘good governance’ often lacks. On the whole, empirical results are very positive. The study allowed us to combine both puzzling and powering required by long-term strategies with a positive effect on the democratisation of the policymaking. In particular, both the e-mail survey and the workshop were important moments to sharing knowledge with experts, to putting together the different visions from stakeholders and to drawing possible policy actions (puzzling). Moreover, the backcasting timeline that clearly indicates the sequence of events and the involved stakeholders, and the strategy's validation questionnaires can be intended as a step towards a guide as to how power can be organised for each stage of the process (powering).     

Forecasting for rulers

The trend towards presidential-style rule in contemporary democratic governments continues. Although rulers' positions are increasing in power and importance, the infrastructure and policy-making resources upon which they rely to govern have remained remarkably inadequate. The author argues that the contribution made by forecasting has been scant and often predicated upon the wrong aims. Forecasters and forecasting need a new approach.     

Strategic foresight in public policy: Reviewing the experiences of the UK, Singapore, and the Netherlands

In an interdependent and complex world, only few public policy challenges can be confined to one particular policy area anymore. Many governments have realized that a single-issue focus is often insufficient in dealing with emerging threats and opportunities. They have therefore started to experiment with strategic foresight that deliberately cuts across the traditional boundaries of policy areas and government departments. This article reviews the foresight activities of three countries that have been at the forefront of this trend: the United Kingdom, Singapore, and the Netherlands. To this end, the article discusses the concept of strategic foresight and explains the two distinct ways in which it contributes to public policy-making: on the one hand, it informs policy by providing more systematic knowledge about relevant trends and developments in an organization's environments; on the other hand, it acts as a driver of reflexive mutual social learning processes among policy-makers that stimulate the generation of common public policy visions. The article concludes by drawing lessons with regard to the key success factors allowing strategic foresight to make an effective contribution to public policy-making.     

The forfeit of the future

Throughout history, perceptions and experiences in the present have shaped different images of the future. Today, we are living in an increasingly complex world, one which has brought as much consternation as hope. Technology-aided exploitation of the natural environment has made us fearful of irreversible damage to the ecosystem, generating bleak predictions for human survival. As the pace of economic, political, and social change increases, confounding the process of prediction, how do such changes shape our present visions of the future, and how do they contrast with those of previous eras? This article shows how optimistic and pessimistic images of the future evolved from presumptions of unchanging order and apocalyptic destinies to techologically inspired Utopian visions, and how such images now reflect our present anxieties.     

The two visions of post-industrial society

The author discusses and contrasts two different usages of the phrase “post-industrial society”. The independent development of these two usages has culminated in the present distinction between post-industrial society as a technological, affluent, service society, and post-industrial society as a more decentralised and ecologically conscious agrarian society. This new global version of the old Jefferson-Hamilton debate—a political continuum best viewed at right angles to the familiar left-right political spectrum—may become the dominant political struggle of our time. A useful synthesis of the two visions is possible, though, if our intellectual segregation, exemplified by the two visions, can be overcome.     

Transition from authoritarian/totalitarian systems: Recent developments in Central and Eastern Europe in a comparative perspective

In this article the method of the comparative prognosis is used to compare the transitions from an authoritarian system to a democratic one in the countries of Southern Europe and Latin America with those of Central/Eastern Europe. Since such a comparison makes more sense in some areas than in others, a distinction is made between the realm of the nation-state, of economics and of politics. The aim of this exercise is to show what the countries of Central/Eastern Europe can learn from the experiences of the other two regions. What are the chances, but also what are the pitfalls of such a rapid transition to democracy and a market economy? Much attention is given here to the role of outsiders, and especially to the USA and the EC countries.     

“Foresight process impacts: Beyond any official targets,foresight is bound to serve democracy”

Foresight is usually criticised for having a limited direct impact on policy-making. Although contexts play a significant role, this may be true to a certain extent. It is also true, however, that the value of foresight has been under-explored. The purpose of the paper is to show the value of foresight in contributing to the development of more participatory societies irrespective of the specific ‘official’ objectives it is designed to serve. The methodology included the creation of a specific impact assessment framework and the assessment of certain foresight exercises (FNR Foresight and eFORESEE Malta) in terms of contribution to more participatory societies through case studies. The assessment showed that although contributing to more participatory societies was not among the main aims of the particular exercises, they managed to achieve certain impacts facilitating increased public participation or directly improving democratic processes in policy-making. Foresight is ‘by default’ devised to promote democratic processes through inclusiveness, openness, transparency, public engagement, and multi-stakeholder approaches.     

Managing different types of innovation: mutually reinforcing management control systems and the generation of dynamic tension

Using a single case study of a highly innovative medical device company engaged in two types of innovation (technological and customer-oriented), this paper examines the nature of the relationship between mutually reinforcing management control systems (MCSs) and the generation of dynamic tension between the different types of innovation. Findings show how mutually reinforcing MCSs create a push for consistency but fail to generate a dynamic tension between different types of innovation, thus crowding out one type of innovation. While the literature to date has been unclear on how mutual reinforcement and the generation of dynamic tension are related, this study makes a distinction between mutually reinforcing control systems that support each other in driving momentum around a particular strategic objective (consistent reinforcement), and control systems which are reinforcing in creating dynamic tension, thus reducing momentum in one particular direction (countervailing reinforcement). It also contributes to the literature by highlighting the protective role that MCSs can play in the management of innovation. Feedback and measurement systems reduce the vulnerability of resources to diversion to other areas by stimulating action on projects, driving accountability around the use of the resources, and commanding management attention.     

Reframing long-term controversies in transboundary river management. The intermediate role of puzzling and powering in tackling wicked problems

In this paper we analyze how the process of visioning about ‘wicked’ long-term policy issues developed as a result of co-evolving processes of “framing”, “puzzling” and “powering”. In this article we discuss a case of cross-border joint visioning on multi-purpose land use planning in a multi-stakeholder process on the transboundary river Scheldt, whose estuary is shared by the Netherlands and Belgium, in which three different rounds can be distinguished, showing a different logic to organizing the processes of framing, puzzling and powering when the focus on the long term diminishes. This analysis helps us move beyond an often naïve perspective of beyond multi-stakeholder processes. We conclude that productive interaction between framing, puzzling and powering is more easily realized in situations of drafting a long-term vision, compared to situations in which long-term visions have to be translated in shorter-run implementation projects.     

The International Health Futures Network (IHFN)

The International Health Futures Network (IHFN) provides an opportunity for those oriented towards health futures research, leadership and strategic policy-making to discuss the future of health and health care, share new ideas and visions and deepen their understanding of international health-care issues. IHFN members are committed to an ambitious vision of “improving health status worldwide by applying and advancing health futures”.     

Visions and scenarios of democratic governance in Asia 2030

Using the Six Pillars foresight workshop process, forty-five Asian political, policy and activist leaders explored the futures of democratic governance. Organized and funded by Oxfam and the Rockefeller Foundation, the organizing hypothesis was that without a change in the nature of governance in Asia, poverty could not truly be uprooted. Changes in governance needed to be imagined and created from the ground up, not just imposed by the past or the elite. Five visions with accompanying causal layered analysis were developed by participants. Generally, these visions focused on more inclusion not just at the level of voting, but in terms of the participatory creation of alternative futures of culture, technology, economy and polity.     

Using possibility functions for long-term environmental planning

Current forecasting methodologies are deficient because they are only reliable for a few years into the future and focus on predicting the future. Serious environmental problems may require planning horizons in excess of 100 years. This article presents a planning method which uses possibility functions. Possibility functions that describe demographic variables can be combined with themselves and with probability functions that describe uncertainty about scientific knowledge. The article illustrates how possibility functions could be used to study the CO₂ problem.     

Anticipating the future: ‘Biotechnology for the poor’ as unrealized promise?

This article analyses visions of the future articulated by proponents of ‘biotechnology for the poor’, those who claim that an embrace of transgenic technology in agriculture is critical to alleviating poverty in developing countries. Specifically, we analyse how such ‘biotechnology for the poor’ proponents represent a future with or without transgenic crops. Such representations include visions of a beckoning (promising) future, where much is to be gained from an embrace of transgenic technology in agriculture, and an onrushing (threatening) future, where much will be lost if the technology is not embraced. The article shows that claims about a beckoning or onrushing future by ‘biotechnology for the poor’ proponents are based upon unexamined or problematic assumptions about the poor and poverty. As such, poverty becomes merely a moral backdrop against which visions of a future are articulated. Furthermore, ‘biotechnology for the poor’ writings do not engage in dialogue with alternative voices in articulating their perspectives on the future, losing a key opportunity to democratize debate about this crucial issue. We conclude by considering the policy consequences (in regulatory and institutional terms) of ‘biotechnology for the poor’ depictions of the future, particularly for the global South where such consequences will be felt.     

Mapping tax compliance: Assemblages,distributed action and practices: A new way of doing tax research

Tax compliance denotes the act of reporting and paying taxes in accordance with the tax laws. Current social science scholarship on tax compliance can almost entirely be divided into behavioural psychology analyses and critical tax studies. This article, which presents two cases of how tax compliance is constructed, challenges the explanatory reaches of today's social science approaches, arguing that an alternative approach to understanding tax compliance is worthwhile exploring. This other choice of approach, inspired by actor–network theory (ANT), adopts a more practice-oriented focus that studies tax compliance where it takes place as well as what it is made of. Consequently, this article argues that tax compliance is a socio-material assemblage and that complying is a distributed action. The article concludes by highlighting how an ANT approach contributes to the further theoretical development of social science studies of taxation.     

Back to the future: The dream of a perpetuum mobile in the atomic society and the hydrogen economy

This article analyses a certain kind of society in which it is proclaimed that abundant energy can be used without any negative side effects. In such “utopias”, individual needs are described as unrestricted, and economic and technological change is said to be unlimited - as if the society were to have a perpetuum mobile at its command. The two examples connected with such expectations are “the atomic/nuclear society” and “the hydrogen economy”. Although these two utopias do differ, their many similarities are the focus of this article. They are similar in that they both invoke the dream of controlling a virtual perpetuum mobile, propose an expert/lay knowledge gap, downplay any risks involved, and rely on a public relations campaign to ensure the public’s collaboration with companies and politicians. I thus connect these two different utopias, discussing them as a part of the modern history of energy production and consumption. Making this connection clarifies some lessons for future energy planning, such as the need for reflection on and critical engagement with utopias, awareness of how a more participatory democratic process may be secured regarding energy issues, and the negative consequences if risk is described in solely economic terms.     

Core tensions in Wales's new politics: pluralist trends in a majoritarian system

This article examines aspects of Wales's new political system. It identifies a core tension between traditional, majoritarian-designed institutions and procedures, and a new political pluralism. There is a fundamental disconnection between current politics and the original system design which has added complexity and inefficiency to the operation, management and administration of most aspects of devolved politics. Moreover, understanding the contours of the nascent and inchoate system in W ales has been obscured by debates about the distribution of legislative powers between Westminster and Cardiff. The article identifies lessons from coalition government in Wales, both for academics working on the implications of coalitions and for practitioners—specifically for ‘constitution managers’ and those engaged in policy-making.     

Meeting in the middle: joining reflection and action in complex public sector projects

In order for co-production to become a viable way of working in public sector management and policy-making, practitioners need to be more reflective and researchers need to be more action oriented. This article discusses reflective practice, action research and the idea of a community of inquiry in which both practice and science work together. The authors illustrate their ideas with an example from their own practice and explain the advantages of their approach.     

Interactions and impacts among business futures

This article describes research which reveals the pattern of impacts between different business areas. The research was undertaken to construct a databank on the future business environment. The future appears to be made up as much from the pattern of these impacts, as from the trends themselves. Studies which are confined to one area may be dangerously misleading, even for short-term events. The broad pattern of these impacts is described.     

China's search for the future: A genealogical approach

This paper is a dialectical inquiry, presenting a genealogy of, China futures discourses and visions from ancient times through to the, present. It uses both structural and macrohistorical based approaches. The identified worldviews are placed in their broader historical, epistemes; asked why change has occurred, how it fits within patterns of, history and what kind of futures are offered. It is unique in that I use, the futures triangle methodology to discuss the “pulls” of the future in, each historical era with the corresponding “pushes” of the present and, “weights” of the past. The article concludes with a theory of futures in, Chinese history and looks at which philosophies are likely to play a role, in the possible futures of China. The aim is to highlight which visions, and images have been victorious is affecting the present and influencing, the future.     

Evolutionary theory in public health and the public health of evolutionary theory

Evolutionary theory is the most powerful explanatory system in the life sciences and is the only framework that can unify knowledge in otherwise disparate fields of research. Considerable advances have been made in the application of evolutionary biology to health issues in recent decades. Health researchers and practitioners could benefit considerably from an understanding of the basic principles of evolution and how humans have been shaped by natural and sexual selection, even if they are not explicitly testing evolutionary hypotheses. Life History Theory is a powerful framework that can be used for examining modern human environments and developing environments that maximize opportunities for positive health outcomes. Many of the recommendations derived from this framework converge with the visions of current public health advocates. Despite the benefits of an evolutionary framework, the challenges that face those attempting to integrate evolutionary theory into public health are perhaps greater than those in the social sciences. Although considerable advancements in the understanding of health issues have already been made, health researchers with an evolutionary perspective are very few in number and face constraining disciplinary attributes. Advances in medical technology will continue to extend the boundaries of saving lives in danger, however traditional public health efforts may be reaching their limits of effectiveness in encouraging health-promoting behaviors. This may partially account for the current interest in broad social and policy change to enhance health and reduce health disparities amongst sub-populations. Such substantial physical and social restructuring will face many challenges and gradual progress may be enhanced by a strong foundation of evolutionary human science. The slow but eventual integration of evolutionary principles will gradually enhance the effectiveness of health interventions and provide an ultimate explanation for patterns in health outcomes that are otherwise puzzling. The speed at which the field of public health adopts a Darwinian framework has yet to be determined, and several futures are possible. This pace will depend on several factors, including the visible utility of evolutionary theory for addressing the health promotion goals of the field.