Efficiency‐adjusted public capital,capital grants,and growth

A debate on whether capital grants, and especially European Union (EU) funds, actually contribute to growth has gained prominence lately. This article empirically assesses the relationship between the quality of public investment, capital grants, and growth in a sample of 43 emerging and peripheral economies over 1991–2015. To this end, the contribution of public capital to growth is estimated using efficiency‐adjusted public capital stock series, which reflects the quality of public investment management institutions. In addition, the determinants of effective public investment are analyzed. The results suggest that capital grants contribute positively to effective public investment, and the latter is significant in explaining variations in economic growth. Finally, the article illustrates the impact of raising EU funds absorption on potential growth in emerging and peripheral EU countries.     

Unemployment persistence in EU countries: new evidence using bounded unit root tests

We apply a series of bounded unit root tests to revisit the unemployment persistence in eight European Union (EU) countries. We find strong evidence in favour of the hysteresis hypothesis in all the cases. This result can be explained by a reduced labour mobility, a decreasing wage inflation and a high uncertainty regarding the future level of unemployment in the EU countries.     

Public or Private Sector Wage Leadership? An International Perspective*

Whether a government acts as a wage leader, placing pressure on private‐sector wages (more open to competition), or whether it plays a passive role and merely follows wage negotiations in the private sector, there are important implications for macroeconomic development, particularly in small open economies and/or countries that are members of a monetary union, such as those of the European Monetary Union. With the notable exception of the case of Sweden, opinion on this issue is still divided. In this paper, we look at public‐ and private‐sector wage interactions from an international perspective (18 OECD countries). We focus on the causal two‐way relationship between public and private wage setting, confirming that the private sector, on the whole, appears to have a stronger influence on the public sector, rather than vice versa. However, we also find evidence of feedback effects from public wage setting, which affect private‐sector wages in a number of countries. When the private sector takes the lead on wages, there are few feedback effects from the public sector, while public wage leadership is typically accompanied by private‐sector feedback effects.     

Intra‐industry Trade Liberalization: Why Skilled Workers are More Likely to Support Free Trade

This paper presents a theoretical model and empirical analysis that connects the prevalence of intra‐industry trade with increased wage inequality from trade liberalization in both skilled and unskilled labor abundant countries. The Stolper–Samuelson effect is incorporated into an intra‐industry trade liberalization (intra‐ITL) hypothesis where skilled labor opposes protectionism in all countries engaged in intra‐industry trade because skilled workers gain at the expense of unskilled workers from multilateral trade liberalization within the skill‐intensive sector. We examine empirical evidence on whether skilled individuals are more supportive of trade liberalization than unskilled individuals across 31 countries with different levels of intra‐industry trade and skill endowments. We find that the extent to which countries engage in intra‐industry trade in high‐tech commodities is strongly linked with the intensity of opposition to protection by skilled labor. Regression results strongly support our hypothesis that skilled workers, almost everywhere, are more likely to support free trade.     

Paths of Development and Wage Variations

In analyzing the relationship between factor endowments and sectoral per capita output (the paths of development), it was shown empirically that the number of cones was neither one nor three but two, and that all countries fall into one of these two cones. This is a puzzle, because it is inconsistent with large wage variations across economies. This paper attempts to solve this puzzle, introducing complete and incomplete specialization into a multiple‐cone model. Empirical results reveal that the two‐cone Heckscher–Ohlin (HO) model can be consistent with HO specialization and wage variations across economies.     

Nominal uncertainty and inflation: The role of European union membership

We provide evidence that higher inflation uncertainty leads to higher inflation in the new European Union (EU) member states and candidate countries only prior to EU accession. During EU accession and entry, inflation uncertainty has no effect on mean inflation.     

Increasing Public Expenditure: Wagner's Law in OECD Countries

Abstract. The paper proposes a panel cointegration analysis of the joint development of government expenditure and economic growth in 23 Organization Economic Cooperation and Development countries. The empirical evidence provides indication of a structural positive correlation between public spending and per‐capita gross domestic product (GDP), which is consistent with the so‐called Wagner's law. A long‐run elasticity larger than 1 suggests a more than proportional increase of government expenditure with respect to economic activity. In addition, according to the spirit of the law, we found that the correlation is usually higher in countries with lower per‐capita GDP, suggesting that the catching‐up period is characterized by a stronger development of government activities with respect to economies in a more advanced state of development.     

Does the EU Financing System Contribute to Shadow Economic Activity?

Financial contributions to the EU budget depend basically on official GDP. This means that countries with higher shadow economic activity contribute less than they should contribute in a system based on actual GDP and therefore could reduce their incentive to fight against such activities. In this paper we investigate if the EU financing system really has an influence on the intensity with which governments in EU member states fight against shadow economic activity. We find that the EU net contributors significantly fight more intensively against shadow economic activity while EU net receivers fight less. As a result, shadow economic activity is higher in net receiver and lower in net contributor countries than it were in comparison with a scenario of nationally balanced EU funding. Quantitatively and averaged over the time period 2001–2007, the diagnosed effect amounts to a stimulation of hidden economic activity by almost 10% for particular economies.     

Inequality and public debt: A positive analysis

This study extends the multi‐country, politico‐economic model of fiscal policy to incorporate wage inequality within each country. In this extended framework, we present conflict over fiscal policy within and across generations and show that a low‐inequality country realizes tight fiscal policy with low public debt accumulation, whereas a high‐inequality country experiences loose fiscal policy with high public debt. This model prediction is consistent with empirical evidence from OECD countries for the years 1980 to 2010.     

A contribution to the public–private wage inequality debate

This paper studies the public–private wage inequality in Romania. Although public sector employment is perceived as safer and offering more benefits, we find that in Romania it also offers higher wages, after controlling for experience, education and gender. This result is at odds with the negative premium uncovered in other transition economies. The public–private wage premium is increasing across the wage distribution, leading to more inequality in the public sector. Decomposing the wage premium into the effect of personal characteristics, coefficients and residuals, we show that only about half of this premium can be attributed to personal characteristics, especially in the top half of the wage distribution. We also find that the number of other public sector employees in the family is a significant driver of public sector employment, facilitating access to jobs. However, the effects of self‐selection are negligible, the premium being still positive and significant after controlling for this.     

Demographic and Economic Pressure on Emigration out of Africa*

Two of the main forces driving European emigration in the late nineteenth century were real wage gaps between sending and receiving regions and demographic booms in the low‐wage sending regions. Our new estimates of net migration for the countries of sub‐Saharan Africa show that exactly the same forces driving African across‐border migration are at work today. The results suggest that rapid growth in the cohort of potential young emigrants, population pressure on the resource base, and slow economic growth are likely to intensify the pressure for migration out of Africa and into high‐wage OECD countries over the next two decades.     

LONGER‐RUN EFFECTS OF ANTI‐POVERTY POLICIES ON DISADVANTAGED NEIGHBORHOODS

We assess evidence on the longer‐run effects of minimum wages, the Earned Income Tax Credit, and welfare on key economic indicators of economic self‐sufficiency in disadvantaged neighborhoods. The evidence suggests that the longer‐run effects of the Earned Income Tax Credit are to increase employment and to reduce poverty and public assistance. We also find some evidence consistent with higher welfare benefits having longer‐run adverse effects, and stronger evidence that tighter welfare time limits reduce poverty and public assistance in the longer‐run. The evidence on the longer‐run effects of the minimum wage on poverty and public assistance is not robust. (JEL J22, J23, J38)     

Development Policies in the EU: An International Comparison

This paper studies the impact of the EU Structural Funds Program for the period 1989–93 on the growth paths of the major recipient countries, Greece, Ireland, and Portugal. It uses an endogenous growth model of private, public, and human capital accumulation in which the public sector and current account balances play a crucial role. Simulation results show that these programs had a substantial impact on economic growth in these economies and contributed markedly to their convergence to EU standards. Their relative long-run position, however, would still be far from EU standards, which suggests the importance of continuing the transfer program.     

Similarity in trade structures,integration and catching‐up1

In this paper, we look at the role of export composition in the growth process, considering how increased similarity in trade structure among countries can induce catching‐up in income levels in a group of countries in transition. We analyze the sectoral export patterns of the Central and Eastern European countries (CEECs) by comparing them to those of the current members of the European Union (EU), focusing on countries’ specialization as suppliers for the EU market, and we assess whether similar export patterns foster the catching‐up process of the CEECs. Our main result is that similarity in export composition has a positive, significant and non‐linear impact on catching‐up, and seems to be driven by the growth of the main export market and delocalization of production more than by other factors.     

Population Growth, Technological Adoption, and Economic Outcomes in the Information Era

In this paper we argue that population growth, through its interaction with recent technological and organizational developments, may account for many cross-country differences in economic outcomes observed among industrialized countries over the past 20 years. In particular, our model illustrates how a large decrease in the price of information technology can create a comparative advantage for high population growth economies to jump ahead in the adoption of computer- and skill-intensive modes of production. They do this as a means of countering their relative scarcity of physical capital. The predictions of the model are that, over the span of the information revolution, industrial countries with higher population growth rates will experience a more pronounced adoption of new technology, a better performance in terms of increased employment rates, a poorer performance in terms of wage growth for less skilled workers, a larger increase in the service sector, and a larger increase in the returns to education. We provide preliminary evidence in support of the theory based on an examination of broad wage movements, employment changes, and computer adoption patterns for a set of OECD countries. Journal of Economic Literature Classification Numbers: O33, J31, J11.     

Effectiveness of R&D subsidies during the crisis: firm-level evidence across EU countries

This paper is one of the first attempts in the literature to evaluate the effectiveness of R&D policies in Europe during the great crisis of the late 2000s. Using homogenous firm-level data for the largest EU Member States over the period 2007–2009, we test whether manufacturing firms receiving public subsidies spent more on R&D. The analysis is performed using both non-parametric techniques and parametric estimation methods accounting for the possible endogenous selectivity of R&D subsidies. The hypothesis of full crowding-out is rejected in all countries under exam as firms did not replace their own resources with public grants. However, these firms did not allocate additional funds to research and hence, differently from earlier works, we do not find evidence for additionality effects of R&D subsidies. Our estimates indicate that, albeit not expansive, public subsidies to R&D thwarted the reduction of firm R&D efforts in the aftermath of economic crisis.     

Reforming the public administration: The role of crisis and the power of bureaucracy

The need to balance austerity with growth policies has put government efficiency high on the economic policy agenda in Europe. Administrative reforms that boost the internal efficiency of bureaucracy can alleviate the trade-off between consolidation and public service provision. Against such a backdrop, this paper constructs (and makes available) a novel reform indicator to explore the determinants of public administration reforms for a panel of EU countries. The findings support political-economic reasoning: An economic and fiscal crisis is a potent catalyst for reforms, but a powerful bureaucracy constrains the opportunities of a crisis to promote reform. Furthermore, there is some suggestive evidence for horizontal learning from other EU countries, and for vertical learning associated with a particular type of EU cohesion spending.     

Does transition make you happy?1

This paper analyses life satisfaction in transition countries using evidence from the World Values Survey. The paper demonstrates that individuals in transition economies on average record lower values of self‐reported satisfaction with life compared with those in non‐transition countries. A comparison across time for a smaller sample of countries shows that life satisfaction levels have returned close to pre‐transition levels in most cases, after a dip in the mid‐1990s. The socio‐economic groups that exhibit relatively higher levels of happiness include students, people with higher levels of education and those on higher incomes. Happiness declines with age until the early‐50s and is slow to recover afterwards. Self‐employed people in transition countries show a level of satisfaction as high as, or higher than, full‐time employees, in contrast to evidence from non‐transition countries. In addition, satisfaction levels are highest in those countries where standards of economic governance are most advanced and where inequality is lower.     

One Size Must Fit All: National Divergences in a Monetary Union

Should a common central bank in a heterogeneous monetary union base its decisions on EU‐wide averages of economic variables or on national welfare losses? A central bank that minimizes the sum of national welfare losses reacts less to common shocks. Under certain parameter constellations this leads to higher average union‐wide expected welfare and it might thus be preferable that decision‐making is dominated by national representatives. Countries with a transmission mechanism far from the average benefit from an orientation on national welfare losses. For countries with a transmission mechanism close to the average, welfare can be lower in this case.     

Private savings and transition

After the collapse in the early transition years, saving rates in Eastern European EU‐accession countries have recovered strongly. But is private saving in these countries now driven by the same forces as in the EU? A GMM estimator is applied to analyze the determinants of private saving in both country groups. The main results are: saving rates are rather persistent; income growth increases saving, whereas public saving crowds out private saving. There is evidence that in both country groups domestic saving and foreign capital operate at least partly as substitutes, which is an indicator for international financial integration. The long‐run effects of income growth and public saving are larger in the EU‐15 than in the EU‐accession countries.