The Welfare Economic Theory of Green National Accounts

This paper takes a critical look at the literature on green national accounts. The problem studied is to find a linear index of economic variables that responds to perturbations in the same direction as social well-being. The thesis of a large literature, that net national product (which is a flow) is that index in closed economies, is shown in some interpretations to be simply false and in others to suffer from deep estimation problems. It is argued that capital depreciation using shadow prices should certainly be included in national accounts, but that the right welfare index is a comprehensive measure of wealth, defined as the shadow value of an economy’s stock of all capital assets. It is shown that comprehensive wealth is usable as a criterion for policy evaluation as well as for determining sustainable economic development.     

Escaping high mortality

This paper develops an economic analysis of mortality to account for the mortality decline during the demographic transition. We propose a unified growth model in which there is intra- and intergenerational health transmission: parental health affects child survival and investments in early life improve health over the entire life-cycle. Based on data from England and Wales between 1640 and 2000, we show that the role of economic changes in mortality is larger than previously estimated. As in current estimates, contemporary income has a minor impact on mortality change. Most of the economic influences, however, are unaccounted for by contemporary relationships.      

Resource constraint,sustainable economic growth pattern and transformation of economic system in China

Over the past 20 years, China has made spectacular achievements in economic growth as well as in thetransformation of economic growth pattern. Industrial structure is being updated, and technology is playing a more andmore important role in economic development. The energy and resource consumption in many industries and enterprisesare reducing. However, we should realize that there are still many problems in changing the economic growth pattern,such as high input, high consumption, high discharge, inharmony, recycling difficulty, and low efficiency, which havegreatly impaired and restrict Chinese economic development. Therefore, the fundamental change of the economic growthpattern is inevitable. Based on the analysis on the status quo and the exploit of resources, this paper suggests that thetransformation from unsustainable to sustainable growth is the only choice in changing the economic growth pattern. Inaddition, the transformation should not completely rely on the fundamental effects of market mechanism. We should makefull use of the power of governments to speed up the transformation of economic system.     

On the impossibility of representing infinite utility streams

We introduce a new Pareto-type criterion for social welfare functions over infinite utility streams that is not necessarily sensitive to increments in just a finite number of components. We show that there is no social welfare function that satisfies both this criterion and Diamond’s equity condition simultaneously. With our result, we extend the impossibility theorem of Basu and Mitra. Moreover, we show that, even under a weaker version of equity related to Zame’s intergenerational equity condition, the impossibility results are obtained as well.     

国内区域协调发展状况定量评价研究综述

通过对国内区域协调发展定量研究的相关论文进行梳理,本文认为相关研究遵循指标选择-模型设定-权重设定的研究范式.在此框架下,本文对学者针对区域协调发展在概念理解、研究目标、方法设计及情境选择等方面的研究进行对照和总结,指出国内学者针对该主题的研究呈现出较强的演化特征,研究维度向多维化、深入化演进,研究指标向全面化、综合化演进,研究方法向客观化、科学化演进.同时本文还认为对区域协调发展状况的定量研究尚存在一定的难点,主要表现在:缺少对模型效度的检验;定量评价过多注重方法,忽略方法为区域建设服务的理念;数据采集的困难导致模型为数据服务,从而对真实情况反映不完整.在此基础上,本文最后提出了未来的研究方向.     

A cost-benefit analysis for the economic growth in China

Currently, traditional development issues such as income inequality, depletion of natural resources, environmental pollution as well as retardation of infrastructure have occurred in China. In the future, more pressures would be imposed on China by the continuous fast development of industrialization, and with transfer of the world manufacture center to China. Sustainable development, including its economic, environmental and social elements, is a key goal of decisionmakers. This paper develops a methodology on cost benefit analysis of economic growth at macroscopic level to identify issues of China's sustainability. In order to address some important issues on how to make policies to improve the quality of economic growth, the CBA framework developed in this study analyses economic-ecological-social interaction, building three accounts that reflect three dimensions of sustainable development that includes 26 sub-models in all, and finally is integrated into an index as Net Progress Proceeds (NPP). The estimation methods of these submodels, such as cost of environmental pollution, depletion of natural resources and defensive expenditures are described in detail. Based on the framework and methods, this paper examines the costs and benefits of economic growth in three aspects of economy, ecology and society. The results illustrate that NPR of China's economic growth had been negative for a long time and has just became positive since year 2000 but was quite low. Even the best was only 1.6% in 2002 (the worst was − 24.2% in 1982). Based on the comparison between three accounts, we can draw a conclusion that ecological cost is the dominant factor that affects China's NPR. The empirical results show that if no other innovative measures or policies are taken in the future the costs of growth would outweigh its benefits, resulting in un-sustainability. Basically, the long-term economic growth would be unsustainable due to increasing environmental damage and depletion of natural resources. There are a few limitations that we consider need to be improved in our CBA framework and method, nevertheless they have many options that can be explored by policy makers, to make the development path more sustainable.     

养老保险与公共财政领域的代际负担——四种测量模型简

以现收现付为例介绍“政府总财政平衡”、“养老金负债净额”、“代际核算”、“隐性税收”四种模型的基本内涵,以及测量人口老龄化对养老保险体系或财政体系收支平衡的影响,认为社会养老保险必然出现代际不公平,人口老龄化对代际负担的影响测量复杂,代际公平应成为研究人口老龄化影响、评价养老保险长期发展的关键。     

Is Green Growth Possible?

ABSTRACT

The notion of green growth has emerged as a dominant policy response to climate change and ecological breakdown. Green growth theory asserts that continued economic expansion is compatible with our planet’s ecology, as technological change and substitution will allow us to absolutely decouple GDP growth from resource use and carbon emissions. This claim is now assumed in national and international policy, including in the Sustainable Development Goals. But empirical evidence on resource use and carbon emissions does not support green growth theory. Examining relevant studies on historical trends and model-based projections, we find that: (1) there is no empirical evidence that absolute decoupling from resource use can be achieved on a global scale against a background of continued economic growth, and (2) absolute decoupling from carbon emissions is highly unlikely to be achieved at a rate rapid enough to prevent global warming over 1.5°C or 2°C, even under optimistic policy conditions. We conclude that green growth is likely to be a misguided objective, and that policymakers need to look toward alternative strategies.     

城市环境库兹涅茨曲线的实证分析——以北京为例

环境问题伴随着社会经济活动而产生,并随着社会经济的发展而发展,环境问题与经济发展、人口增长之间关系密切.本文依据2000-2010年北京市经济、人口和环境污染物排放量的统计数据,运用环境库兹涅茨曲线的理论模型,分析环境污染与经济发展、人口增长之间的关系.结果表明:自2000年以来,北京市经济快速发展、人口数量不断增长,但环境污染物排放量却持续下降,这主要与北京市的产业结构、环境保护政策、环境保护投资和环境宣传教育等因素相关;环境污染与经济发展、人口增长关系的数学模型可表述为E=β0Y-Y2.同时,为北京市进一步促进经济、人口、环境的和谐发展提出了一系列相关政策建议     

Developments in the throughput-income relationship: theoretical and empirical observations

It has been suggested that the relationship between income and the associated environmental pressure in terms of derived materials inputs and pollution levels may take an inverted-U shape, indicating a ‘delinking’ of environmental pressure from economic growth in relation to rising per capita incomes. The likelihood of such a relationship being persistent is discussed in the context of a simple macro model of industrial metabolism, and the possibility of ‘relinking’ clearly emerges. Data on specific indicators of environmental pressure (i.e., the throughput of materials, energy and the volume of transport) in 19 countries have been used to investigate patterns of delinking. The results suggest that delinking may not be persistent; already some advanced economies may be entering a new period of relinking. The relationships between environmental pressure and welfare in the medium long term may be N-shaped rather than inverted-U-shaped.     

Like father, like son? A note on the intergenerational transmission of IQ scores

Using a large population-based dataset, we estimate a substantial intergenerational transmission of IQ scores; a 10% increase in father's score at age 18 is associated with a 3.2% increase in son's score. This relationship also holds true for various subpopulations.     

Equal opportunity and poverty reduction: How should aid be allocated?

This paper analyzes a model of aid allocation equalizing the opportunity between recipient countries to reach a common poverty reduction goal. We propose a fair and efficient aid allocation based on a multicriteria principle. The model considers structural handicaps in recipient countries in terms of lack of human capital and economic vulnerability, their initial poverty, and the natural gap between the growth rate required to reach a development goal and the observed one. We show that our proposed aid allocation favors poor and vulnerable countries with our multicriteria principle. It substantially differs from the observed allocation. Analyses also shed light on the impact of the donors' aversion to the low natural growth gap in recipient countries on the optimal aid allocation and the marginal efficiency of aid.     

Challenges of responding to sustainability with implications for affordable housing

Sustainability is one of the most contested ideologies of our time because everyone acknowledges that it must occur but no one can agree on what needs to change in response. This is unsurprising, because objecting to the goal of sustainability is like objecting to other inherently good goals like peace or freedom. Responses to sustainability exist on a long continuum, with some interpreting sustainability to mean conservation-at-all-costs and reduced economic growth, while others suggest that the market will ensure sustainable outcomes eventually result. Further, sustainability can be easily manipulated to justify predetermined outcomes. There are, indeed, a multitude of conceptual and pragmatic challenges to operating on sustainability, particularly when the scale shifts from a global goal to local action. Using the application of sustainability to affordable housing in Australia as a case study, this article argues that rather than limiting sustainable outcomes, the existence of the sustainability debate which focuses on the many challenges is a positive indicator that sustainability may be attainable.     

On perfect equilibria in stochastic models of growth with intergenerational altruism

Summary. The well-known model of altruistic growth/strategic bequest is studied. A stochastic transition function is considered and fairly general sufficient conditions for the existence of Markov-stationary subgame-perfect equilibrium are given. Also some special cases in which the equilibrium policy is continuous and nondecreasing are discussed.Received: 20 September 2003, Revised: 11 December 2004, JEL Classification Numbers: C73, D91, O40.Research was partially supported by KBN grant 5 PO3A 01420.     

SEEA-2003: Accounting for sustainable development?

The revised SEEA-2003 elaborates physical and hybrid environmental-economic accounts, details valuation techniques for natural resources, but rejects monetary valuation of environmental degradation as “modeling”. Preference for physical accounting and corresponding loss of systemic coherence (as compared to the SEEA-1993) prevents meeting the proclaimed objective of assessing sustainable development.     

Alternative Sustainability Criteria,Externalities, and Welfare in a Simple Agroecosystem Model: A Numerical Analysis

Using the numerical technique of value iteration, this paper imposes several sustainability constraints on a simple multi-sector agroecosystem model, and provides analysis of the costs tradeoffs of the product and externality is insufficient for intergenerationally equitable welfare paths, while sustaining a physical resource over time in the interests of equitability can result in a less equitable distribution of welfare across generations. Furthermore, a value sustainability constraint imposed on the social welfare maximization problem acts as a welfare transfer mechanism from the productive sector to the sector affected by the externality, but implies growth in profits for the productive sector and declining utility for the non-productive sector.     

代际公共品供给视角下的环境规制研究

从代际维度看,环境规制的成本主要发生在当代,其影响却超出了一代以上人的范围,因此,环境规制不仅是一种一般性公共品的供给,也是一种代际公共品的供给。由于环境规制的成本与收益在代际间的不对称,通常具有正的代际外部性,因而在现实中往往出现供给不足的趋势。