Firm-level political risk and distance-to-default

This study provides the first empirical evidence of the relationship between firm-level political risk and distance-to-default. Based on our examination of a quarterly dataset of 2727 U.S. firms covering a period from January 2002 to April 2019, we conclude that firm-level political risk is negatively associated with distance-to-default. We document three economic mechanisms through which political risk increases default risk: information asymmetry, organizational capital, and investment growth. The evidence indicates that the association is more pronounced for firms with low analysts’ forecast accuracy, organizational capital, and investment growth. Employing hand-collected data, we also reveal that firms are able to exploit their corporate lobbying to immunize themselves against default risk. Our findings are robust to different endogeneity identifications, including a natural experiment, alternative distance-to-default proxies, and different sub-samples. Overall, we present novel evidence of an adverse impact of firm-level political risk on distance-to-default and how such a negative effect can be mitigated.     

Firm-level political risk and earnings opacity

Given the recent growing global uncertainties, firms have encountered increasing political risks and responded accordingly to avoid a negative impact on their performance. This study examines the impact of firm-level political risk on corporate earnings opacity among listed U.S. firms. Our empirical results reveal that higher firm-level political risk engenders greater corporate earnings opacity via three channels of market scrutiny, political proximity, and multiple business objectives. Further analyses show that politically risky firms are more prudent in earnings management when they are highly dependent on government spending. The results hold after a wide range of robustness tests. Our findings provide several implications for the management of earnings quality in response to increasing firm-level political risk in the U.S.     

Firm-level political risk and corporate leverage decisions

This study examines the effects of firm-level political risk on firm leverage decisions and speed of adjustment. We uncover that firm-level political risk has a negative impact on a firm's total and long-term leverage. We also find that firms facing high political risk tend to prefer debts with short-term maturity. However, firm-level political risk is positively related to debt specialisation, suggesting that firms are more inclined to adopt fewer debt types when they face high political risk. Further analysis reveals that firms with high political risk are associated with a faster speed of adjustment to target than those with low political risk. Our results are robust to endogeneity concerns and the effects of financial crisis.     

Firm-level political sentiment and corporate tax avoidance

This paper examines how managers' tone on political issues in earnings conference calls relates to corporate tax avoidance. We find a positive relationship between managers' tone of using political linguistics and tax avoidance, while controlling for non-political tone. The relationship is more pronounced for firms with greater political exposure, higher lobbying expenditures, greater information asymmetry, and more risk-taking. The empirical results remain robust with various additional checks. Overall, our evidence suggests that managers employ the sentiment of political risk disclosure for aggressive tax purposes.     

Board reforms and debt choice

In this study, we examine the impact of board reforms on the choice between bank and public debt. Using a large sample of firm-year observations from 29 countries and a difference-in-difference setting, we find that major board reforms lead to a decrease in bank debt ratio, particularly in companies where bank debt is used for monitoring purposes, suggesting that bank debt and board reforms are substitutes for monitoring managers' actions. We also find that board reforms' adoption is associated with a facilitated access to alternative financing sources with better terms than bank debt. In an additional analysis, we show that the decrease in bank debt ratio is stronger for firms with higher information opacity and those in countries with strong institutional environment. More importantly, we provide evidence that the decrease in bank debt post-reform increases firm value, indicating that the substitution between bank monitoring and board monitoring is a value-enhancing decision. Taken collectively, we conclude that the need for bank monitoring is endogenously determined by the strength of alternative governance mechanisms (i.e. board governance).     

Asset redeployability and the choice between bank debt and public debt

A firm with less redeployable assets, which are assets that have fewer alternative uses outside the firm, is more likely to borrow from banks than issue public debt. These findings are consistent with firms with less redeployable assets valuing the ability to renegotiate bank debt contracts instead of selling assets in the event of default. Consistent with this mechanism, firms with lower asset redeployability sell fewer assets following covenant violations. Our results contribute to work on the determinants of which debt markets a firm chooses to borrow from and the role that banks play as intermediaries.     

Corporate ownership structure and the choice between bank debt and public debt

This article examines the relation between a borrowing firm's ownership structure and its choice of debt source using a novel data set on corporate ownership, control, and debt structures for 9,831 firms in 20 countries from 2001 to 2010. We find that the divergence between the control rights and cash-flow rights of a borrowing firm's largest ultimate owner has a significant negative impact on the firm's reliance on bank debt financing. In addition, we show that the control-ownership divergence affects other aspects of debt structure including debt maturity and security. Our results indicate that firms controlled by large shareholders with excess control rights may choose public debt financing over bank debt as a way of avoiding scrutiny and insulating themselves from bank monitoring.     

Corporate political transparency and the cost of debt

Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting - We examine whether the predictive power of initial yield spreads of mortgage-backed securities (MBS) vary with the financial cycle. Using a...     

The capital structure of domestic and foreign denominated debt: Firm-level evidence from South Korea

This study uses a two-part model with firm-level fixed effects to examine the decisions of Korean firms to issue domestic and foreign denominated debt (extensive margin), and among those firms using external finance, their level of leverage (intensive margin) in each denomination. We find that less profitable and fast-growing firms adopt a pecking order in their leverage decisions, which is evident in their preference for domestic, relative to foreign denominated debt. Interestingly, this relation is shown to be stronger following the 2007 financial crisis and suggests demand side factors are important to leverage decisions. Our results also indicate the fixed costs of issuing debt are important to debt use along the extensive margin and vary in strength by denomination. The use of foreign debt, with its higher fixed costs, is shown to be largely determined by factors associated with these costs.     

Managerial conservatism, project choice, and debt

We show that the incentive for managers to build their reputationsdistorts firms' investment policies in favor of relatively safeprojects, thereby aligning managers' interests with those ofbondholders, even though managers are hired and fired by shareholders.Tbis effect opposes the familiar agency problem of risky debtthat is imperfectly covenant-protected, wherein shareholdersare tempted to favor excessively risk projects in order to expropriatebondholders. Consequently, when managerial concern for reputationresults in conservatism, it can actually make shareholders betteroff ex ante by allowing the firm to issue more debt. We examinehow the optimal choice of leverage from the shareholders' standpointis influenced by takeover activity, and how the adoption ofantitakeover measures affects a firm's investment policy andleverage choice.     

Resaleable debt and systemic risk

Many debt claims, such as bonds, are resaleable; others, such as repos, are not. There was a fivefold increase in repo borrowing before the 2008–2009 financial crisis. Why? Did banks’ dependence on non-resaleable debt precipitate the crisis? In this paper, we develop a model of bank lending with credit frictions. The key feature of the model is that debt claims are heterogenous in their resaleability. We find that decreasing credit market frictions leads to an increase in borrowing via non-resaleable debt. Such borrowing has a dark side: It causes credit chains to form, because, if a bank makes a loan via non-resaleable debt and needs liquidity, it cannot sell the loan but must borrow via a new contract. These credit chains are a source of systemic risk, as one bank’s default harms not only its creditors but also its creditors’ creditors. Overall, our model suggests that reducing credit market frictions may have an adverse effect on the financial system and even lead to the failures of financial institutions.     

Stock price crash risk and CEO power: Firm-level analysis

This study examines the impact of stock price crash risk on future CEO power. Using a large panel sample with 17,816 firm-year observations, we posit and find a significant negative impact of stock price crash risk on CEO power, suggesting that CEO power becomes smaller after stock price crashes. We also find that our results are stronger for firms with female CEOs and are largely driven by firms with shorter-tenure CEOs. In addition, we find that the significant negative impact of stock price crash risk on CEO power is diminished for firms with strong corporate governance. Our study responds to the call in Habib, Hasan, and Jiang (2018) by providing more empirical evidence on the consequences of stock price crash risk.     

Idiosyncratic risk and debt maturity dispersion

We investigate the relation between idiosyncratic asset risk and debt maturity dispersion. Idiosyncratic asset volatility represents significant risk, which can impede the ability to obtain or maintain external debt financing necessary for business operations, and is difficult to control given its unpredictable nature. We find that this risk is managed through the maturity structure of debt: firms with higher idiosyncratic asset volatility also have more dispersed maturity structures. Consistent with active management of rollover risk, this relation is weaker for younger firms and stronger for firms without significant credit lines.     

The corporate choice between public debt,bank loans,traditional private debt placements,and 144A debt issues

The main purpose of this study is to examine the determinants of the corporate choice between different forms of debt financing. By analyzing the most comprehensive sample of US corporate debt issues to date, I find that firms that issue 144A debt have significantly lower credit quality and higher information asymmetry than firms that issue traditional non-bank private debt. Further, the study shows that traditional private placements, rather than bank loans, are the favorite private debt source for firms with good credit quality. I also show that the firm characteristics of traditional private debt issuers have significantly changed after 1990 through to 2003. My results suggest the following pecking order of debt choices which is conditional on credit quality. In other words, high credit quality firms prefer public bond offerings and small firms, with good credit quality, are more likely to issue traditional private debt. A large group of firms characterized by moderate credit quality make extensive use of bank loans and poor credit quality firms preferentially issue 144A debt.     

Corporate tax avoidance and stock price crash risk: Firm-level analysis

Using a large sample of U.S. firms for the period 1995–2008, we provide strong and robust evidence that corporate tax avoidance is positively associated with firm-specific stock price crash risk. This finding is consistent with the following view: Tax avoidance facilitates managerial rent extraction and bad news hoarding activities for extended periods by providing tools, masks, and justifications for these opportunistic behaviors. The hoarding and accumulation of bad news for extended periods lead to stock price crashes when the accumulated hidden bad news crosses a tipping point, and thus comes out all at once. Moreover, we show that the positive relation between tax avoidance and crash risk is attenuated when firms have strong external monitoring mechanisms such as high institutional ownership, high analyst coverage, and greater takeover threat from corporate control markets.     

Asian sovereign debt and country risk

This paper analyzes systematic risk of sovereign bonds in four East Asian countries: China, Malaysia, Philippines, and Thailand. A bivariate stochastic volatility model that allows for time-varying correlation is estimated with Markov Chain Monte Carlo simulation. The volatilities and correlation are then used to calculate the time-varying betas. The results show that country-specific systematic risk in Asian sovereign bonds varies over time. When adjusting for inherent exchange rate risk, the pattern of systematic risk is similar, even though the level is generally lower. The findings have important implications for international portfolio managers that invest in emerging sovereign bonds and those who need benchmark instruments to analyze risk in assets such as corporate bonds in the emerging Asian financial markets.     

Endogenous debt maturity and rollover risk

We empirically study the nature of rollover risk and show how banks manage it. Having to roll over debt does not lead to higher default risk per se. Only banks that lose significant access to new funding while having to roll over debt display higher default risk. We identify a factor that determines this buildup of risk: specifically, debt maturity shortening (forcing debt to be more frequently rolled over) and reduced access to new funding are both driven by market pessimism about banks’ future performance. We also provide evidence consistent with dynamic coordination risk.     

Firm-level risk of climate change: Evidence from climate disasters

While climate change impacts most regions, a company's physical location and geographic diversification could determine how it is affected by the risks associated with climate change. We explore information from extreme climate events to study whether and how they affect firm-level risks. The results indicate a positive association between a firm's exposure to catastrophic climate events, measured by headquarters and affiliation's locations and systematic and idiosyncratic volatility, suggesting that this risk is somewhat unpredictable and undiversifiable. Furthermore, geographic dispersion increases firms' exposure to extreme climate event risks. Our results also indicate that this effect is more pronounced in industries in which environmental issues are financially material and is mitigated by better environmental performance of the firm. In addition, the effect increases with investor awareness. Overall, our research contributes to a better understanding of businesses' exposure to the risks associated with climate change.