Long-term employment relationships in the early twentieth century: Evidence from personnel data

This paper utilizes a new panel data set of workers employed by the Canadian Pacific Railway between 1904 and 1929 to analyse the incidence of long-term employment and reasons for changes in job durations after World War I. The hazard function estimates indicate that individuals have only a small probability of staying for more than ten years at the firm, although at any point in time long-term workers constitute a sizable fraction of employees. Increasing post-war spell lengths reflect the changing composition of the workforce rather than differences in macro-economic conditions or changes in employment relationships. Specific human capital and job matching were also important: Long-term employees were shielded from both firm-specific and economy-wide downturns.     

Welfare comparisons of income distributions and family size: An individualistic approach

We investigate the problem of how to perform comparisons of income distributions across families of different sizes. We argue that social welfare ought to be computed as the average individual utility instead of the average household utility as in most known criteria. We provide dominance criteria which allow for some indeterminacy about the average optimal family size, by resorting to the bounded approach to dominance analysis proposed by Fleurbaey et al. (2003). Indeed, when differences in needs come from family size, a specific population allocation problem (how a population should be optimally divided over families for given resources) adds to the usual income allocation problem. Pro-family and anti-family stances are introduced in order to make explicit the choice of an optimal family size. An application to French data shows that shifting from the household to the individualistic point of view can substantially alter the outlook of dominance results.     

Perceptions of economic insecurity: Evidence from Russia

Economic insecurity is an inherent characteristic of the transition from a planned economy to a market-oriented economy and workers’ assessments of their economic insecurity have direct consequences not only for their happiness/well-being, but also on consumption and saving behavior. This study utilizes data from the nationally representative Russian Longitudinal Monitoring Survey to study perceptions of economic insecurity among workers in both rural and urban settlements. Analyzing three measures of perceived economic insecurity, we find that perceptions of insecurity were higher when economic conditions were deteriorating (1995–1998), and lower when economic conditions had stabilized (2000–2004). While perceived insecurity varies substantially by worker characteristics–those with less education, women, and unskilled and semi-skilled manual workers feel most vulnerable–, differences in observed characteristics explain a relatively small part of the ruralurban perceptions gap; other factors, such as different rates of economic recovery in rural and urban locales are also important. Individual well-being and household consumption tend to be lower when concerns about economic insecurity are present.     

Managing the Yin and Yang of family capital: a study of Chinese immigrant entrepreneurs

Family capital can provide positive resources for entrepreneurship; however, it can also bring negative consequences that hinder the growth of a new venture. We investigated how entrepreneurs experienced and managed the positives and negatives of family capital through in-depth semi-structured interviews with Chinese immigrants who landed in Canada between 2000 and 2014. We contribute to the entrepreneurship literature by highlighting the paradoxical nature of family capital, and by identifying five strategies that entrepreneurs employed to manage the paradox.     

Past absence as a predictor of present absence: the case of a large Danish municipality

This article investigates whether past absence behaviour is a predictor of present absence duration in a large Danish municipality with 17,499 individuals observed from 1996 to 2004. Past absence behaviour is measured in both absence days and absence spells. The article also investigates a number of confounders such as gender, age, seniority, wage, contracted number of work hours and season. The results of the empirical study show that there is a significant positive relationship between employees' absence duration and past absence spells and past absence days, respectively. The study thus confirms that past days and past spells have an equal potential of predicting present absent. Past absence behaviour can thus be used as an early warning for managers. The study also confirms that personal characteristics such as age and seniority also influence absence duration. Moreover, job characteristics such as wage and contracted number of work hours also influence absence duration. Finally, the season of the year seems to influence absence duration.     

Regional Market Potential and the Number and Size of Firms: Observations and Evidence from Chile

Abstract

This paper investigates the relationship between market potential and the spatial variation in the number and the average size of firms. We adapt the canonical model of the New Economic Geography to demonstrate this relationship and to derive an empirical specification suitable for estimation through dynamic panel techniques. The model is tested against municipal data on the number of firms per adult in Chilean comunas for 2005–2010. Our results confirm that market potential along with place-specific fixed costs play an important role in determining the spatial variation in the number of firms per capita.     

Technology and endowments as determinants of comparative advantage: Evidence from Mexico

We analyze whether the pattern of Mexico's comparative advantages in manufacturing trade flows, vis-à-vis its closest competitors, are related with productivity differentials (Ricardian hypothesis) or with differences in factor endowments (Heckscher–Ohlin hypothesis). The results suggest that Heckscher–Ohlin determinants tend to be more relevant than labor productivity differentials to explain the differences in the export patterns between Mexico and its competitors. This result holds even when we restrict the analysis to Mexico and other countries with relatively small differences in factor endowments, although in this case Ricardian comparative advantages gain some relevance.     

The impact of litigation risk on the association between audit quality and auditor size: Evidence from China

We examine whether audit quality varies across different sizes of CPA firms under high or low auditor‐specific litigation risk exposure. We measure audit quality by the issuance of modified audit opinions and the audit fees charged to clients, and we use the organizational form of CPA firms as the proxy for auditors’ litigation risk exposure, where a partnership (limited liability) CPA firm represents a high (low) litigation risk exposure. Built on Choi, Kim, Liu, and Simunic's (2008) theoretical framework, we hypothesize that the litigation risk exposure of CPA firm moderates the association between auditor size and audit quality. Our results show that when the auditor's liability is capped (i.e., registered as a limited liability form of CPA firm), larger size CPA firms are associated with higher audit quality when compared to smaller size CPA firms. However, this positive association between auditor size and audit quality disappears for audit firms that are subject to high litigation risk exposures (i.e., registered as a partnership form of CPA firm). Our research provides new insights on the impact of auditor‐specific litigation risks on the relation between audit quality and auditor size. In particular, we show that only when auditor‐specific litigation risk is limited, do large CPA firms appear to perform higher quality audits than small CPA firms.     

Risk spillover between the US and the remaining G7 stock markets using time-varying copulas with Markov switching: Evidence from over a century of data

This paper analyses the risk spillover effect between the US stock market and the remaining G7 stock markets by measuring the conditional Value-at-Risk (CoVaR) using time-varying copula models with Markov switching and data that covers more than 100 years. The main results suggest that the dependence structure varies with time and has distinct high and low dependence regimes. Our findings verify the existence of risk spillover between the US stock market and the remaining G7 stock markets. Furthermore, the results imply the following: 1) abnormal spikes of dynamic CoVaR were induced by well-known historical economic shocks; 2) The value of upside risk spillover is significantly larger than the downside risk spillover and 3) The magnitudes of risk spillover from the remaining G7 countries to the US are significantly larger than that from the US to these countries.     

The impact of investor structure on stock price crash sensitivity: Evidence from China's stock market

Stock price crash sensitivity refers to the conditional probability of a stock crash when the market collapses. It focuses on individual stocks' sensitivity to the market crash and can affect stock pricing significantly. Although the crash sensitivity of China's stock market is very high as a whole (Weigert, 2016), different individual stocks show varying degrees of crash sensitivity. This paper, adopting the perspective of institutional investors, explores the reasons for the difference in crash sensitivity in China's stock market, and finds that: First, institutional investors' shareholdings is positively related to firms' stock price crash sensitivity. However, after dividing institutional investors into professional (represented by financial institutions) and non-professional institutional investors (represented by general legal persons), we find that only professional institutional investors' shareholdings is negatively related to firms' stock price crash sensitivity. Second, the impact of professional institutional investors on the crash sensitivity is influenced by stock liquidity and media sentiment: when the stock liquidity of listed companies is good or the media sentiment is strong, the negative impact of professional institutional investors on the crash sensitivity is accordingly high. This paper, by highlighting the investor structure, attempts a pioneering exploration of the influencing factors of the difference in stock price crash sensitivity in China. Our empirical results enrich research on stock price crash sensitivity and the heterogeneity of institutional investors. They can also serve to guide regulatory authorities' development of institutional investors and efforts to maintain market stability.     

Neighbourhood Effects as Indirect Effects: Evidence from a Dutch Case Study on the Significance of Neighbourhood for Employment Trajectories

One of the key challenges in the study of neighbourhood effects on work is to understand the pathways through which disadvantaged neighbourhoods impact the employment opportunities of residents. Endogenous explanations for neighbourhood effects focus on social life in these neighbourhoods, identifying mechanisms of social isolation, deviant work ethics and neighbourhood disorder. This article studies these mechanisms in a low‐income neighbourhood in the Netherlands. The case study shows that unfavourable socioeconomic outcomes can be indirect and unintended consequences of actions and choices in everyday life that are not directly concerned with work. Nevertheless, these individual actions and choices reflect local social practices that are influenced by the marginalized context in which residents lead their lives.     

The age-productivity gradient: Evidence from a sample of F1 drivers

Estimating the effect of aging on productivity requires clean measures of productivity. Additionally, one needs to control for unobserved heterogeneity at the worker, firm and worker/firm level, to account for the role of experience and to correct for selection bias. We tackle these issues exploiting a panel of Gran Prix Formula One drivers, which provides a unique setting to single out the data requirements needed to credibly estimate the effect of age on productivity. Results robust to the inclusion of worker, firm and match effects show that the age-productivity link has an inverted U-shape profile with a peak at the age of 30-32. The use of repeated cross-sections of individuals also produces consistent results provided that cohort effects are properly accounted for. Relying on team-average measures of productivity makes instead inference harder.     

Problems of establishing service supply relationships: Evidence from a high-tech manufacturing company

This paper identifies areas, which may cause problems when establishing service supply relationships. Case research has been conducted within the service division of a global manufacturing company, analysing 11 instances where the company established or attempted to establish a relationship with a supplier to provide services as part of their offering to the end-customer. Four problem areas are identified through inductive case analysis. First, writing legal agreements for service exchanges. Second, clearly specifying service processes to be transferred to suppliers. Third, handing over service delivery to suppliers. Fourth, losing control over the relationship with the customer. These problems expand on already known problems of establishing supply relationships. Suggestions for how the problems may be moderated are also provided.     

Lessons from a century of FED policy: Why monetary and credit policies need rules and boundaries

Wide operational and financial independence given to monetary and credit policies subjects the Federal Reserve to incentives detrimental for macroeconomic and financial stability. The absence of a monetary policy rule created go-stop incentives that produced inefficient volatility of both inflation and unemployment during the Great Inflation. Fed credit policy has undergone massive “mission creep” since the Fed was established. Being debt-financed fiscal policy, Fed credit policy beyond ordinary temporary lending to solvent depositories creates friction with the fiscal authorities and jeopardizes the Fed׳s independence. An ambiguous boundary of expansive Fed credit policy creates expectations of Fed accommodation in financial crisis—that blunts the incentive of private entities to take protective measures beforehand (to shrink counter-party risk and reliance on short-term finance, and build up equity capital) and blunts the incentive of the fiscal authorities to prepare procedures in advance to act systematically in times of credit turmoil. These points are illustrated with reference to the 2007–09 financial crisis. Part of the problem is that the independent Fed does not have the same incentive as the 19th century Bank of England to follow Bagehot׳s Rule. The paper concludes with a set of principles to preserve a workable, sustainable division of responsibilities between the independent central bank and the fiscal authorities.     

Multiphase Assessment of Project Risk Interdependencies: Evidence from a University ISD Project in Taiwan

Project risks evolve dynamically, so variations in risk influences during the life cycle of an information system development project require analyses to devise risk management strategies cost effectively and at the appropriate stages. This study extends the Decision Making Trial and Evaluation Laboratory technique, using network theory, to assess the risk interdependencies for distinct project phases. A multiphase observation of a university information system development project in Taiwan provides a more in‐depth understanding of the key risk factors. To enhance risk assessments, this study proposes integrating an interdependency indicator with risk exposure measures.     

The impact of computer use on earnings in a developing country: Evidence from Ecuador

This paper examines the earnings premium to computer use in a developing country: Ecuador. We use different approaches to examine whether the premium is causal. Controlling for an extensive set of observables, we find an earnings difference between users and non-users of around 20%. Using first differences, the premium drops and is no longer significant in a specification that includes proxies for workers' computer experience and knowledge. Estimates of the impact of the intensity of computer use are also small and in most cases insignificant. Estimates of the pencil premium are substantial in level specifications, but become insignificant in fixed effect specifications. Taken together, also in the setting of a developing country we do not find evidence in favour of the computer premium reflecting a causal impact.     

Asymmetric determinants of corporate bond credit spreads in China: Evidence from a nonlinear ARDL model

This study utilizes the nonlinear ARDL (NARDL) model proposed by Shin, Yu, and Greenwood-Nimmo (2014) to quantify the potentially asymmetric transmission of positive and negative changes in each of the possible determinants of industry-level corporate bond credit spreads in China. The determinants we consider include the corresponding industry stock price, China’s stock market volatility, the level and slope of the yield curve (i.e., the interest rate), the industrial production growth rate, and the inflation rate. The empirical results suggest substantial asymmetric effects of these determinants on credit spreads, with the positive changes in the determinants showing larger impacts than the negative changes for most industries we consider. Moreover, the corresponding industry stock prices, the interest rate, and the industrial production growth rate negatively drive the industry credit spreads for many industries. In turn, China’s stock market volatility and the inflation rate positively affect the credit spreads at each industry level. These findings may be helpful to investors, bond issuers and policymakers in understanding the dynamics of credit risks and corporate bond rates at the industry level.     

Effects of Future Demographic Changes on the US Economy: Evidence from a Long-term Simulation Model

Demographics, especially the size and the age composition of the population, contribute substantially to the growth and structure of any economy. Over the next 55 years, the age composition of the US population will change dramatically, as the post-World War II ‘baby boom’ ages into retirement. In this paper, we use a long-term interindustry macro model of the US economy to examine how the age composition of the US population affects overall economic growth as well as the output/employment structure of the economy. We find that the system of funding government commitments to pension and medical care for the elderly is a primary channel through which demographic effects translate into economic effects.