Financial dollarization: Short-run determinants in transition economies

This paper examines the determinants of financial dollarization in transition economies from a short-run perspective. Using aggregate monthly data of deposit and loan dollarization we study the drivers of short-term fluctuations in dollarization and test their importance at different levels of dollarization. The results provide evidence that (a) the positive (negative) short-run effects of depreciation (monetary expansion) on deposit dollarization are exacerbated in high-dollarization countries; (b) short-run loan dollarization is mainly driven by banks matching of domestic loans and deposits, currency matching of assets and liabilities, international financial integration, and institutional quality; and (c) both types of short-run dollarization are affected by interest rate differentials and deviations from desired dollarization.     

Does Inflation Targeting Help Reduce Financial Dollarization?

We examine whether adopting an inflation‐targeting regime helps reduce financial dollarization as predicted by Ize and Levy Yeyati's ( 2003 ) portfolio model. To address the self‐selection problem of policy adoption, we apply a variety of propensity score matching methods to a large sample of 106 developing countries for the years 1985–2004. We find strong evidence that inflation targeting has large and significant treatment effects on lowering both actual financial dollarization and the model implied minimum variance portfolio dollarization. Our results are robust to alternative samples and model specifications and also to control for additional factors in postmatching regressions.     

Financial dollarization in Russia: causes and consequences

We review some aspects of financial dollarization in Russia, applying the main relevant theories to analyse the dynamics of several dollarization indicators. An econometric model of the short-run dynamics of deposit and loan dollarization is estimated for the last decade. We find that ruble appreciation was the main driver of the de-dollarization that occurred then and of the later episode of renewed dollarization. We estimate the overall (and sectoral) currency mismatches of the Russian economy. Evidence is presented for the significant currency risk vulnerability of the non-banking private sector.     

The Impact of Deposit Dollarization on Financial Deepening

Banks in highly dollarized economies face risks that significantly affect their ability to perform their financial intermediation role. In these economies, dollarization plays a dual role: on the one hand, it provides a hedging instrument protecting the value of savings; on the other hand, it generates a currency mismatch on banks' balance sheets and increases default risk. Through these effects deposit dollarization can affect credit extension. This paper investigates the role of deposit dollarization on the financial depth of forty-four emerging market economies. Findings suggest that deposit dollarization has a consistent and negative impact on financial deepening, except in high-inflation economies.     

Financial dollarization and systemic risks: New empirical evidence

This paper explores the persistence of financial dollarization in a group of 79 economies with different levels of development. Our main hypothesis is that a high level of domestic debt combined with default risk explains this persistence, even after a decline in inflation rates. Using the generalized method of moments (GMM) in a panel data analysis, our results show that inflation risks caused by increasing probability of default account for financial dollarization more than inflation rate itself. After the decrease in inflation rates, the foreign currency-denominated deposits remain large because of the high debt-to-GDP ratios, particularly in speculative-grade economies. High public indebtedness leads to expectations of default. Dollarization is a rational response to the future inflation associated with investors' expectations of default observed in highly indebted economies.     

What drives credit dollarization in transition economies?

This paper provides an in-depth analysis of the use of foreign currencies in the lending activities of banks in transition economies. The impact of bank and firm variables on credit dollarization is studied in an optimal portfolio allocation model and estimated using new aggregate data for 21 transition economies for the period 1990–2003. Empirical results provide evidence that credit dollarization is the combined outcome of domestic deposit dollarization and banks’ desire for currency-matched portfolios beyond regulatory requirements. The effects of international financial factors and natural hedges are less robust across alternative specifications. The paper further discusses the role of regulations in affecting the impact of these factors on credit dollarization and calls for more developed domestic forward foreign exchange markets.     

Dollarization persistence and individual heterogeneity

A salient feature of financial dollarization, arguably the one that causes most concern to policymakers, is its persistence: even after successful macroeconomic stabilizations, dollarization ratios often remain high. In this paper we argue that this persistence is connected to the fact that the participants in the dollar deposit market are fairly heterogenous, and so is the way they form their optimal currency portfolio. We develop a simple model when agents differ in their ability to process information, which turns out to be enough to generate persistence upon aggregation. We provide empirical evidence that is consistent with this claim.     

Determinants of board members' financial expertise — Empirical evidence from France

Very few countries require directors to be financially literate. This article investigates the determinants of boards' financial expertise using a sample of 95 nonfinancial French listed firms. We construct a measure of financial expertise based on educational and career background data for 943 individuals occupying 1140 posts in our sample and explore the determinants of average per-firm financial expertise using a Tobit analysis. We find that average financial expertise is negatively associated with board type (two-tier versus one-tier) and growth opportunities and positively associated with board independence, ownership concentration, and institutional ownership. These findings are robust to sensitivity analyses.     

Financial dollarization: The role of foreign-owned banks and interest rates

Why in many economies households and firms borrow and make deposits in foreign currency? Expanding on the existing literature, our framework addresses this question allowing for interest rate differentials and access to foreign funds to play a role in explaining this process of asset substitution or financial dollarization. Using a newly compiled data set on transition economies and employing a standard panel as well as a panel-VAR methodology we find that increasing access to foreign funds leads to higher credit dollarization, while it decreases deposit dollarization. Interest rate differentials matter for the dollarization of both loans and deposits.     

Dollars, Debt, and International Financial Institutions: Dedollarizing Multilateral Lending

Financial dollarization is increasingly seen as a concern becauseof its tendency to contribute to financial crises and outputvolatility. As a result the debate on financial dollarizationhas shifted in favor of a more proactive stance on dedollarization.While often neglected, lending from international financialinstitutions is an important source of financial dollarizationin emerging economies and must be considered in any dedollarizationstrategy. This article revisits old and new arguments in favorof international financial institution lending in the localcurrency and argues that any such initiative should rely, atleast initially, on demand from residents seeking stable returnsin units of the local consumption basket but who are reluctantto take on sovereign risk. Superior enforcement capacity enablesinternational financial institutions to intermediate these savings,currently invested in dollarized foreign assets, back into thelocal economy. The international financial institutions canoffer investment-grade local currency bonds and use the proceedsto dedollarize their own lending to noninvestment-grade countries,thereby reducing financial dollarization and fostering the developmentof local currency markets.     

Toward an Archival Measure of the Likelihood of Auditor–Client Management Negotiation: An Exploration of the Audit Lag Measures Conjecture*

Salterio (2012) hypothesized that adaptations of an audit efficiency measure, audit report lag (the length of time between the financial statement year‐end date and the auditor's report date), could provide measures of underlying auditor–client management (ACM) negotiation likelihood. Salterio argued that these measures would enable archival researchers to examine issues that heretofore were the exclusive domain of experimental and field researchers. Using an audit report lag measure and a measure of abnormal audit report lag lags (the residual based on audit report lag determinants model), we show that a larger lag is associated with higher audit fees after controlling for other known determinants of audit fees. We also show that larger lags are associated with higher levels of discretionary accruals—that is, lower accrual quality. Based on our findings, we suggest that there is support for Salterio's hypothesis that audit report lags and abnormal audit report provide valid archival proxies for the differences in year‐end ACM negotiation likelihood. We suggest that this proxy will allow researchers to study issues related to published accounting numbers in light of whether negotiations are likely to have occurred in addition to providing regulators and others the means to determine what clients of audit firms are more likely to have different types of ACM relationships.     

The relationship between investment and large exchange rate depreciations in dollarized economies

We use a simple financial friction in an economy with high degree of liability dollarization - and currency mismatch - to show that the negative balance-sheet effect of an exchange rate depreciation may be observable only if the magnitude of the depreciation is large enough. This result justifies the difficulty to find strong empirical evidence for balance-sheet effects and suggests the convenience of including a “large depreciation” term in empirical analyses. We review some of the related empirical literature and provide some new evidence of this large depreciation effect.     

ISO certification,financial constraints,and firm performance in Latin American and Caribbean countries

We employ World Bank Enterprise Survey data collected in 2006–2010 for 21,852 firms from 31 Latin American and Caribbean countries to investigate determinants of the adoption of International Organization for Standardization (ISO) certification, the relation between ISO certification and firm financial constraints, and the effect of ISO certification on firm performance. We find that ISO accreditation is positively related to firm size and firm age. Exporters and foreign firms are more likely to adopt ISO certification. We document that ISO-certified firms exhibit significantly lower level of financial constraints and higher labor productivity and lower cost of sales than non-certified firms.     

Determinants of Bank Distress in Europe: Evidence from a New Data Set

Using a unique data set on bank distress, this paper provides novel empirical evidence on the determinants of bank soundness in the European Union (EU) as a whole. The estimation results are consistent with the hypothesis that bank risks have converged across EU members, providing empirical support for introduction of a more centralized system of financial regulation in the EU. We show that asset quality and earning profile of banks are important determinants of bank distress next to leverage, suggesting that these should be central in EU-wide financial regulation and supervision. We find that market discipline, both by depositors and by stock market participants, plays a role in the EU, supporting the notion that transparency and dissemination of financial information would contribute to the financial soundness of banks. Our data also point to the presence of contagion effects, relatively higher fragility of concentrated banking sectors, and hazards associated with high ratios of wholesale funding.     

Firm‐Level Competition and Exchange Rate Exposure: Evidence from a Global Survey of Firms

We examine the effect of competition on exchange rate exposure using survey data from 55 countries. We find that exposure increases with the intensity of competition. Exposure is higher when firms face price competition in international and domestic product markets and when rivals compete using an unfair financial advantage. Furthermore, competition is a leading determinant of exposure, dominating the usual determinants. Exposure also increases with several determinants not previously empirically examined, such as firm‐level financial constraints. These results hold for small, large, foreign‐involved, and purely domestic firms. Finally, import‐only firms have higher exposure than export‐only firms. Our survey results are likely to capture exposure before firms’ hedging actions.     

Investor protection and analysts’ cash flow forecasts around the world

We find that analysts are more likely to provide cash flow forecasts in countries with weak investor protection. This finding is consistent with our hypothesis that market participants demand (and analysts supply) cash flow information when weak investor protection results in earnings that are less likely to reflect underlying economic performance. Our results suggest that information intermediaries respond to market-based incentives to attenuate the adverse effects of country-level institutional factors on earnings’ usefulness. These findings contribute to the literature by shedding light on the institutional determinants of analysts’ research activities, and on the nature of the financial information they generate.     

Financial Expectations,Consumption and Saving: A Microeconomic Analysis*

We explore the determinants of individuals' financial expectations using data from the British Household Panel Survey, 1991–2003. Our findings suggest that individuals' financial predictions are influenced by both the life cycle and the business cycle. We also investigate the extent to which the accuracy of past financial expectations affects current financial expectations. Regardless of the accuracy of the prediction, past financial optimism has a positive effect on current expectations formation whilst past financial pessimism has a negative effect. We also explore the relationship between financial realisations and expectations and we find that expectations tend to fall short of financial realisations. Finally, we investigate how financial expectations influence saving and consumption. Our findings suggest that financial optimism is inversely associated with saving and that current financial expectations serve to predict future consumption.     

How individual auditor characteristics impact the likelihood of audit failure: Evidence from China

Audit failure imposes a severe loss on investors and damages market participants' confidence in financial reporting quality. This study investigates the impacts of individual auditor characteristics on the likelihood of audit failure. Chinese regulators mandate listed firms to disclose the engagement auditors' identity. Furthermore, the information regarding individual auditor characteristics in China is also publicly available. Utilizing this unique setting, we examine the relationship between individual auditor characteristics and the likelihood of audit failure in China during the period from 2000 to 2009. We document that individual auditors with more auditing experience are less likely associated with audit failure. We also find a weaker negative relationship between auditor education level and audit failure. Our study has important implications for both auditors and regulators by shedding lights on the determinants of audit failure and by providing guidance to the human resource management in audit firms.     

Can Management Turnover Restore the Financial Statement Credibility of Restating Firms? Further Evidence

This paper investigates the association between management turnover following financial restatements and the probability of subsequent restatements. We find that restating firms that replace management (CEO and/or CFO) are more likely to restate their financial statements again. We also find that subsequent restatements are mainly attributable to the new management. Overall, our results suggest that management turnover following restatements may not be an effective mechanism to remediate financial restatements, but the change to a new management results in a greater possibility of lower earnings quality (i.e., higher probability of subsequent financial restatements and accruals‐based earnings management). Our study supports prior literature's findings that the change in the top management leads to organizational instability and higher accounting information risk. Our findings have implications for internal decisionmaking with regard to top executive replacement.     

The determinants of corporate cash management policies: Evidence from around the world

We examine the determinants of corporate cash management policies across a broad sample of international firms. We document that firms in countries with strong legal protection of minority investors are more likely to decrease their cash holdings in response to an increase in cash flow than are firms in countries with weak legal protection. This relationship is most pronounced for firms that are financially constrained and those with high hedging needs. More importantly, we do not find evidence that financial development plays an incremental impact on the cash flow sensitivity of cash, after controlling for the effect of legal protection. Therefore, we argue that the legal protection of investors (rather than financial development) represents the first-order effect in influencing international firms' cash management policies. The results are robust to alternative specifications. In general, our findings reinforce the importance of country-level legal protection of investors in mitigating the effects of firm-level financial constraints and hedging needs on corporate cash management policies.