Forest Value and Optimal Rotations in Continuous Cover Forestry

The Faustmann forest rotation model is a celebrated contribution in economics. The model provides a forest value expression and allows a solution to the optimal rotation problem valid for perpetual rotations of even-aged forest stands. However, continuous forest cover forest management systems imply uneven-aged dynamics, and while a number of numerical studies have analysed specific continuous cover forest ecosystems in search of optimal management regimes, no one has tried to capture key dynamics of continuous cover forestry in simple mathematical models. In this paper we develop a simple, but rigorous mathematical model of the continuous cover forest, which strictly focuses on the area use dynamics that such an uneven-aged forest must have in equilibrium. This implies explicitly accounting for area reallocation and for weighting the productivity of each age class by the area occupied. We present results for unrestricted as well as area-restricted versions of the models. We find that land values are unambiguously higher in the continuous cover forest models compared with the even-aged models. Under area restrictions, the optimal rotation age in a continuous cover forest model is unambiguously lower than the corresponding area restricted Faustmann solution, while the result for the area unrestricted model is ambiguous.     

中国木质林产品出口贸易结构与林业经济增长——基于1981～2009年数据的分析

与世界主要木质林产品出口大国(地区)相比,中国劳动密集型木质林产品出口比重过大。基于1981~2009年间数据,运用协整分析和格兰杰因果检验,分析中国劳动密集型、资源密集型、资本技术密集型木质林产品的出口与林业经济增长的关系,认为我国林业总产值与各类木质林产品的出口之间存在长期的均衡关系,资源密集型木质林产品出口与林业产值存在单向Granger因果关系,劳动密集型和资本技术密集型木质林产品的出口与林业产值之间存在双向Granger因果关系。     

Damned if you do,damned if you do not—Reduced Climate Impact vs. Sustainable Forests in Sweden

The main objective of this paper is to analyze the potential goal conflict between two of Sweden's environmental objectives: Sustainable Forests and Reduced Climate Impact – or, more precisely, the conflict between forest conservation and the supply of wood fuel. To accomplish this, we use a forest sector model that includes the suppliers and major users of roundwood. The econometric results, based on a data set that spans 40 years, show that all the own price elasticities have the expected signs. Among the three forestry products, the supply and (long-term) demand of forest fuel seems to be most sensitive to a price change. In a second step, the estimated model is used to simulate the effect of increased forest conservation – the Sustainable Forest objective – on the supply of wood fuel. If oil is used as a substitute, Swedish emissions of greenhouse gases will increase by almost 0.92 percent, which indicates a clear conflict with the Reduced Climate Impact objective.     

Reassessing forest products demand functions in Europe using a panel cointegration approach

In a panel of European countries, we analyse paper products, sawnwood and wood panels consumption data. With this object, we use a classical demand model where national consumption depends on real GDP and real prices. In contrast to previous panel estimations in the literature, we highlight non-stationarity time series which can lead to spurious regressions. We explicitly take into account the issue by using recent panel cointegration techniques. Cointegration is present for printing paper and fibreboard, though less clear cut for other products. Then we estimate demand elasticities and find that GDP elasticities are significantly lower than estimates from the literature. Finally, we simulate the implications of modified demand elasticities by using a partial equilibrium model of the forest sector. For most products, changes in elasticities would lead to lower projected demand and lower prices over a 20-year time horizon. Lower demand for solid wood and wood fibre would lead to less tensions with fuel wood- and wood-based chemical markets. In a context of rising interest for renewable bio-based products, updated long-term demand models contribute to the analysis of the forest sector’s sustainability.     

Net national emissions, CO2 taxation and the role of forestry

The concept of net national emissions suggests that accumulation of carbon in forestry should be taken into account when countries buy CO₂ permits or pay CO₂ taxes. The paper analyses the question of the correct tax/subsidy programme for giving proper incentives to forest owners and utilizers of wood. The analysis uses a dynamic general equilibrium model with productive capital and the stock of forests as state variables. It turns out that in a decentralized economy forest owners should be subsidized and CO₂ emissions should be taxed independently of whether they originates from wood or fossil fuels.     

Another reconciliation between economists and forestry experts: OLG-arguments

Foresters often claim that the goal of good forest policy is to have a sustained forest yield, or even a maximum sustainable yield. They also claim that people wish to save a few extra trees for their children. This bequest motive is not modelled in the standard approach to the optimal rotation problem. In this paper, we present a standard version of an overlapping generation model augmented with a simple tree technology. We show in particular that the market equilibrium can be dynamically inefficient, and that a bequest motive in terms of trees can correct for the overaccumulation of capital that causes the inefficiency. The bequest motive also enables us to account for a harvesting intensity varying with age (young people typically cut more than elderly people) in spite of a perfect capital market.The crux of the argument is that a bequest motive is likely to increase the equilibrium interest rate and move the economy away from a maximum sustainable yield policy. It, however, improves efficiency and is able to explain empirical regularities that are not easily explained by a traditional perfect capital market approach to forestry.The author acknowledges comments from Karl-Göran Mäler, Stockholm School of Economics, participants in the economics-forestry economics seminar at the University of Umeå, and two anonymous referees.     

Optimizing forestry industrial structure based on the framework of rationalization, advancement and ecologicalization

Under the target of the sustainable development,optimization of forestry industrial structure contains rationalization and advancement of forestry industrial structure in the traditional sense,as well as ecologicalization of forestry industrial structure.The connotation of optimization of forestry industrial structure is analyzed at first,and then the paper chooses the typical evaluation indexes from the three sides of rationalization,advancement and ecologicalization to evaluate the current situation of the regional forestry industrial structure.With the aid of the theory of fuzzy mathematics and information entropy,the paper establishes a fuzzy evaluation model which is based on information entropy for optimization of forestry industrial structure,and the evaluation model is applied in the study for the current situation of forestry industrial structure from 2000 to 2006 in Hubei province.The results show that the grade of forestry industrial structure is bad basically during the research,of which the overall level of forestry industrial structure of Hubei province is poor,the degree of utilizing forest resource is lower,and ecological environment in the forest region has been damaged to some extent.On this basis,the author presents the countermeasure to promote the optimization of forestry industrial structure.     

Forest management under fire risk when forest carbon sequestration has value

We develop a multiple forest use model to determine the optimal harvest date for a forest stand producing both timber and carbon benefits under a risk of fire. An empirical application is provided for a forest owner producing maritime pine in Southwest of France. Our results indicate that a higher risk of fire will decrease the optimal rotation period. On the contrary, higher carbon prices increase the optimal harvesting age. To investigate the contradictory effects of fire risk and carbon price on forest rotation, we identify the set of carbon prices and fire risks that lead to a given rotation age. We also show that forest owner's willingness to pay for a risk reduction can be substantial (37.33 euros by ha and by year to reduce the annual fire risk from 1.26% to 0.07%).     

The impact of recycling on the long‐run forestry

Abstract Interest in recycling of forest products has grown in recent years, one of the goals being to conserve trees or possibly increase their number to compensate for positive externalities generated by the forest and neglected by the market. This paper explores the issue as to whether recycling is an appropriate measure to attain such a goal. We do this by considering the problem of the private owner of an area of land, who, acting as a price taker, decides how to allocate his land over time between forestry and some other use, and at what age to harvest the forest area chosen. Once the forest is cut, he makes a new land allocation decision and replants. He does so indefinitely, in a Faustmann‐like framework. The wood from the harvest is transformed into a final product that is partly recycled into a substitute for the virgin wood, so that past output affects the current price. We show that in such a context, increasing the rate of recycling will result in less area being devoted to forestry. It will also have the effect of increasing the harvest age of the forest, as long as the planting cost is positive. The net effect on the flow of virgin wood being harvested to supply the market will as a result be ambiguous. An important point, however, is that recycling will result in fewer trees in the long run, not more. It would therefore be best to resort to other means if the goal is to conserve the area devoted to forestry.     

Optimal Forestry Contracts under Asymmetry of Information

In this paper, I analyze optimal royalty contracts in forestry when the harvesting firm has private information on the cost of harvesting. This infinite horizon forest rotation model with asymmetry of information on the cost parameter results in a dynamic incentive problem. Depending on whether the costs are correlated over time or not, the firm either receives rent or receives no rent, associated with the continuation part of the rotation choice. I characterize the optimal contract explicitly in both cases. I also examine the loss in expected welfare surplus resulting from the use of a linear contract instead of the more general non‐linear contract.     

Wood Fuel or Carbon Sink? Aspects of Forestry in the Climate Question

This paper discusses and contrasts two mainroles of forestry in light of the debate on theglobal climate. As the main problem is relatedto the increases of the CO₂-concentrationin the atmosphere, forests may be viewed aspart of the alleviation of the problem throughtheir function as (i) a source of biomass forenergy production, which may replace fossilfuels and thus indirectly reduceCO₂-emissions, and as (ii) carbon storage,since a growing forest extracts atmosphericCO₂ and fixes it as carbon in biomass. Inthe Scandinavian forestry, logging residues areincreasingly being used for energy production.In this paper the value of forests as a sourceof bioenergy is added to the traditional timbervalue. Formulated as a joint production modelwithin the Faustmann framework, the effect ofthis addition on the optimal rotation length isdiscussed. Based on data for spruce, thedominant species in the Scandinavian forestry,it is demonstrated that the rotation length isshortened compared to the standard Faustmannmodel. Shorter rotation length implies lesscarbon storage. Therefore, in this modelwithout explicit regard to the social carbonstorage value of the forest, the gains in termsof the climate problem from utilisation offorest biomass for energy production are beingdiminished by the value of reduced carbonstorage. The carbon value of the forest is thenadded to complete the model, with the effect ofincreasing the rotation length, a result thatis well known in the literature. Finally, theempirical effects of the interaction of thesetwo climate-related value elements of theforest are discussed.     

Protecting Forests Through Farming. A Dynamic Model of Nontimber Forest Extraction

Forest resource extraction by local communities has been cited as a major impediment to the efficient management of protected forests. This paper develops a two sector dynamic model for farming and forest resource extraction by communities living in the forest periphery. The model assumes that land under forestry is constant and households allocate their time to farming and forestry. Comparative dynamic results suggest that higher prices for agriculture output, lower input prices, better knowledge of farming techniques and a lower discount rate may result in a higher equilibrium stock of forest resources. Tobit analysis with primary data collected from the Sinharaja forest in Sri Lanka provides supportive empirical evidence.     

Measuring transnational leakage of forest conservation

Forest conservation in one country can influence the degree of conservation or deforestation in other countries because of international linkages of the forest products industry and markets and a lack of global coordination. Thus leakage and offsetting losses of environmental quality may be present. This paper develops an analytical framework for measuring this leakage and estimates its magnitude via general equilibrium modeling. We find that the magnitude of leakage depends upon the price elasticities of supply of and demand for forestry products across the countries and degree of cooperation in forest conservation. We estimate that a significant portion (42%-95%) of the reduced forestry production implemented in a country/region can be transferred to elsewhere, offsetting environmental gains. Leakage generally diminishes as more countries cooperate, but cooperation among only a few countries does not always dramatically reduce leakage. Thus forest conservation efforts and associated environmental quantity gains in a country or group of countries can be seriously undermined in terms of global net conservation gain in the absence of effective global cooperation. Our results also point to the importance of taking leakage into account in evaluating local or regional forest carbon sequestration projects.     

Trade-mediated biotechnology transfer and its effective absorption: an application to the U.S. forestry sector

In this paper, we analyze the consequences of biotechnology innovations in the United States forest sector (logging) by modeling technology transfer embodied in trade flows and its absorption. A seven-region, seven-traded-commodity version of a dynamic computable general equilibrium model is used to achieve this task. A 0.63% Hicks-neutral biotechnological progress in the source region (U.S.) has differential impacts on the productivity of the log-using sectors in the domestic as well as in the recipient regions. Since recipient regions' ability to utilize biotechnology innovations depends on their absorptive capacity (AC) and structural similarity (SS), we construct the AC and SS indices based on multiplicity of factors such as human capital endowments, skill content and social appropriateness of the new innovations. The model results show that biotechnological innovations in the U.S. forest sector result in a significant increase in timber production. Following the productivity improvements and its embodied spillover, wood products and pulp and paper sectors in the U.S. register higher productivity growth. The role of AC and SS in capturing technical change is shown to be evident. In the face of growing regulations on timber production from public forests, increasing productivity through biotechnology may be the most effective way to meet the consumer demand for forest products.     

Harvest Decisions and Spatial Landscape Attributes: The Case of Galician Communal Forests

In recent years, forest management has moved towards a landscape approach reflecting a mix of social, environmental and economic values. In this paper, we evaluate the effect on harvesting decisions of the spatial attributes of communal forests in Galicia. We first model the forest landscape management problem within a bioeconomic framework, which allows the identification of optimal clear-cutting strategies. This framework makes it possible to model a Faustmann-type rotation at the landscape level. The empirical analysis uses data from communal forests in Galicia, Spain. Under communal ownership, members of a rural community have rights to forest resources, but not rights to the forest itself. The management of communal forests integrates multiple forest uses within the decision making process. Given the communal nature of forest rights, and given these multiple uses, we show that landscape patterns—fragmentation, diversity and clumpiness—determine rotation periods.     

The equilibrium price path of timber in the absence of replanting: does Hotelling rule the forests too?

Prior to 1985, virtually all analyses of forestry economics took the price of timber as given. Since Mitra and Wan (1985), however, the literature has sought to solve social planning problems where the price of timber, as reflected in the path of the marginal utility of consumption, is endogenous. The purpose here is to focus directly on the equilibrium price path of timber under the stringent assumption that once a site is cleared, no new tree is planted and the site is used for some other purpose with an exogenously specified value. While extreme, this assumption permits us to show that familiar results from the Hotelling literature have their counterparts in forestry economics. The paper begins by describing the equilibrium price path if all trees are the same age and sit on sites of equal value. This turns out to generate a U-shaped price path under some circumstances. Heterogeneity is then introduced. It is shown that if trees differ only in site value, then in the competitive equilibrium it is optimal to extract the last tree on a more valuable site before extracting the first tree on a less valuable site. It is also shown that if trees differ only in their initial age, then in equilibrium, it is optimal to extract the last older tree before extracting the first younger tree. In short, the inisights of Hotelling (1931) and Herfindahl (1967) are shown to extend. As the concluding section suggests, some of these results reappear in special cases of the model with replanting.     

The equilibrium price path of timber in the absence of replanting: does Hotelling rule the forests too?

Prior to 1985, virtually all analyses of forestry economics took the price of timber as given. Since Mitra and Wan (1985), however, the literature has sought to solve social planning problems where the price of timber, as reflected in the path of the marginal utility of consumption, is endogenous. The purpose here is to focus directly on the equilibrium price path of timber under the stringent assumption that once a site is cleared, no new tree is planted and the site is used for some other purpose with an exogenously specified value. While extreme, this assumption permits us to show that familiar results from the Hotelling literature have their counterparts in forestry economics. The paper begins by describing the equilibrium price path if all trees are the same age and sit on sites of equal value. This turns out to generate a U-shaped price path under some circumstances. Heterogeneity is then introduced. It is shown that if trees differ only in site value, then in the competitive equilibrium it is optimal to extract the last tree on a more valuable site before extracting the first tree on a less valuable site. It is also shown that if trees differ only in their initial age, then in equilibrium, it is optimal to extract the last older tree before extracting the first younger tree. In short, the inisights of Hotelling (1931) and Herfindahl (1967) are shown to extend. As the concluding section suggests, some of these results reappear in special cases of the model with replanting.     

林业行政强制立法与《行政强制法》的吻合度分析

林业行政强制制度是我国行政强制法律制度体系的重要组成部分,直接关系到依法治林及林农合法权益保护。我国的林业法律、行政法规和部门规章在木材运输管理、植物检疫和植物新品种保护等三个领域创设了16项林业行政强制行为。通过对林业行政强制立法的实证分析和理论分析得知,除由规章设定的＂通知品种权人缴纳滞纳金＂这一行政强制执行方式以外,我国的15项林业行政强制立法与《行政强制法》的规定相吻合。《森林法实施条例》对《森林法》中＂有权制止＂这一＂暧昧的制定法＂解释为＂暂扣木材＂,是一种合理的行政解释裁量,应予尊重;而综观《森林法》的全部规定可以发现,森林公安机关可以成为＂暂扣木材＂这一行政强制措施的适格实施主体,这一发现得到了法律实践的验证。     

中美木质林产品产业内贸易的实证研究——基于1992—2009年的进出口贸易数据

采用UNcomtrade数据库的中美木质林产品贸易数据,利用G-L指数、G-L修正指数、Aquino指数、Brülhart边际产业内贸易指数及Thom&McDowell水平型和垂直型产业内贸易指数,对1992—2009年中美木质林产品产业内贸易的水平和结构进行实证分析。结果表明:中美木质林产品产业内贸易水平总体较低,贸易方式仍以产业间贸易为主;中美木质林产品贸易的增长由产业间贸易和产业内贸易共同引发;产业内贸易方式以垂直型产业内贸易为主。     

不同生计策略类型对农户林种选择意愿的影响研究——基于福建省477户农户调查数据

研究以福建省为调研区域,数据来源于福建省集体林权制度改革监测调查。根据农户收入来源不同,将农户生计策略类型划分为纯林型、兼业型和非林型,通过构建多元无序Logit模型,实证分析不同生计策略类型对农户林种选择意愿的影响。结果表明:从纯林型向非林型转变时,呈现出家庭耕地面积、家庭林地块数、家庭林地面积、家庭林业生产经营支出、家庭林业收入逐渐减少的趋势和家庭非林生产经营支出、家庭非林收入逐渐增加的趋势。以农户种植竹林意愿为参照,与非林型相比,纯林型和兼业型对农户用材林和经济林选择意愿均具有显著正向作用,用材林选择意愿受户主年龄、是否签订林地承包合同的影响,经济林选择意愿受户主是否为村干部、是否有林权证、是否加入农民林业专业合作社、是否拿到过林业补贴、林业单位面积投入的影响。研究结论有助于农户根据不同生计策略选择不同林种,进而提升农户收入水平,缓解农户生计问题。