Inequality does cause underdevelopment: Insights from a new instrument

Consistent with the provocative hypothesis of Engerman and Sokoloff [Engermann, Stanley and Kenneth Sokoloff (1997), “Factor Endowments, Institutions, and Differential Paths of Growth Among New World Economies: A View from Economic Historians of the United States,” in Stephen Haber, ed. How Latin America Fell Behind, Stanford CA: Stanford University Press., Sokoloff, Kenneth L. and Stanley L. Engerman (2000), Institutions, Factor Endowments, and Paths of Development in the New World, Journal of Economic Perspectives v14, n3, 217–32.], this paper confirms with cross-country data that agricultural endowments predict inequality and inequality predicts development. The use of agricultural endowments –specifically the abundance of land suitable for growing wheat relative to that suitable for growing sugarcane – as an instrument for inequality is this paper's approach to problems of measurement and endogeneity of inequality. The paper finds inequality also affects other development outcomes – institutions and schooling –which the literature has emphasized as mechanisms by which higher inequality lowers per capita income. It tests the inequality hypothesis for development, institutional quality and schooling against other recent hypotheses in the literature. While finding some evidence consistent with other development fundamentals, the paper finds high inequality to independently be a large and statistically significant barrier to prosperity, good quality institutions, and high schooling.     

Income inequality and education revisited: persistence,endogeneity and heterogeneity

This article presents new results on the relationship between income inequality and education expansion – that is, increasing average years of schooling and reducing inequality of schooling. When dynamic panel estimation techniques are used to address issues of persistence and endogeneity, we find a large, positive, statistically significant and stable relationship between inequality of schooling and income inequality, especially in emerging and developing economies and among older-age cohorts. The relationship between income inequality and average years of schooling is positive, consistent with constant or increasing returns to additional years of schooling. While this positive relationship is small and not always statistically significant, we find a statistically significant negative relationship with years of schooling of younger cohorts. Statistical tests indicate that our dynamic estimators are consistent and that our identifying instruments are valid. Policy simulations suggest that education expansion will continue to be inequality reducing. This role will diminish as countries develop, but it could be enhanced through a stronger focus on reducing inequality in the quality of education.     

Inequality does cause underdevelopment: Insights from a new instrument

Consistent with the provocative hypothesis of Engerman and Sokoloff [Engermann, Stanley and Kenneth Sokoloff (1997), “Factor Endowments, Institutions, and Differential Paths of Growth Among New World Economies: A View from Economic Historians of the United States,” in Stephen Haber, ed. How Latin America Fell Behind, Stanford CA: Stanford University Press., Sokoloff, Kenneth L. and Stanley L. Engerman (2000), Institutions, Factor Endowments, and Paths of Development in the New World, Journal of Economic Perspectives v14, n3, 217–32.], this paper confirms with cross-country data that agricultural endowments predict inequality and inequality predicts development. The use of agricultural endowments –specifically the abundance of land suitable for growing wheat relative to that suitable for growing sugarcane – as an instrument for inequality is this paper's approach to problems of measurement and endogeneity of inequality. The paper finds inequality also affects other development outcomes – institutions and schooling –which the literature has emphasized as mechanisms by which higher inequality lowers per capita income. It tests the inequality hypothesis for development, institutional quality and schooling against other recent hypotheses in the literature. While finding some evidence consistent with other development fundamentals, the paper finds high inequality to independently be a large and statistically significant barrier to prosperity, good quality institutions, and high schooling.     

Unequal opportunities and human capital formation

This paper develops a tractable, heterogeneous agents general equilibrium model where individuals have different endowments of the factors that complement the schooling process. The paper explores the relationship between inequality of opportunities, inequality of outcomes, and aggregate efficiency in human capital formation. Using numerical solutions we study how the endogenous variables of the model respond to two different interventions in the distribution of opportunities: a mean-preserving spread and a change in the support. The results suggest that a higher degree of inequality of opportunities is associated with lower average level of human capital, a lower fraction of individuals investing in human capital, higher inequality in the distribution of human capital, and higher wage inequality. In particular, the model does not predict a trade-off between aggregate efficiency in human capital formation (as measured by the average level of human capital in the economy) and equality of opportunity.     

Inequality of opportunity in earnings and assets in Egypt

ABSTRACT

By most available measures, the level of inequality in the MENA region, including Egypt, is considered relatively low. This regularity applies to both inequality of outcomes as well as inequality of opportunity. This paper challenges this view. It argues specifically that circumstances beyond the control of individuals account for a larger share of inequality of opportunity when asset distribution is considered rather than the distribution of earnings, essentially because earnings are subject to measurement errors and idiosyncratic shocks. The paper tests this proposition by estimating the extent to which factors related to the circumstances a person is born into contribute to inequality of opportunity in earnings as well as asset ownership. The results show that circumstances account 26–32% of inequality of asset distribution, compared with only 8–10% of inequality of opportunity in earnings. The analysis further shows that the area of birth and fathers education level are the two most important circumstance factors contributing to inequality of opportunity, for both assets and earnings.     

Testing inequality of opportunities in Italy using the ANOVA framework

While the analysis of inequality has been central to economic studies for centuries, it was only in recent years that studies have concentrated on the distinction between inequality of opportunity and inequality of returns to effort and have attempted empirical estimates of the two components. The decomposition of a general inequality index into these two components allows to analyse the prevalence of fair or unfair income inequality within a country. This paper suggests to test the differences between the two sources of inequality in a simple way using the ANOVA framework adapted to decompose the coefficient of variation, to better suit the requirements of an inequality index. The proposed procedure is applied to the Italian Survey on Income and Living Condition (IT-SILC data, wave 2005 and 2011). The empirical results help identifying the circumstances that foster the rise of inequality of opportunities in Italy. Our analysis shows, in particular, that father education, region of residence and gender result as the most relevant circumstances determining inequality of opportunity. On the other side, the role of mother education starting from a lower level as an inequality of opportunity factor has increased its influence over time.     

Inequality of opportunity in sub-Saharan Africa

Inequality of opportunity is defined as the difference in individuals’ outcome systematically correlated with morally irrelevant pre-determined circumstances, such as ethnicity, socio-economic background, area of birth. This definition has been extensively studied by economists on the assumption that, in addition to being normatively undesirable, it can be related to low potentials for growth. However, empirical estimations of inequality of opportunity require accessing rich data sources, rarely available in poorer countries. In this paper, we exploit 13 consumption household surveys to evaluate inequality of opportunity in 10 Sub-Saharan African countries. According to our results, the portion of total inequality that can be attributed to exogenous circumstances is between 40% and 56% for the generality of countries. Our estimates are significantly higher than what has been found by previous studies. We detect a positive association between total consumption inequality and inequality of opportunity, and we study the different sources of unequal opportunities. The place of birth and the education of the father appear to exert the most relevant role in shaping inequality of opportunity in the region.     

The role of child health and economic status in educational, health, and labour market outcomes in young adulthood

Abstract .  The Ontario Child Health Study provides the first opportunity in Canada to assess directly the relationship between socio-economic and health status in childhood and levels of completed schooling, health status, and labour market success in young adulthood. We find that childhood health problems are negatively associated with educational attainment, especially the probability of a university degree, and the health status of young adults. Our results also imply that childhood health problems influence adult labour force outcomes, especially for males, mainly through adult levels of schooling and health.     

Reforms and education inequality in Ghana

We analyze the evolvement of education inequality and the gender gap in Ghana before and after two major education reforms. Using different measures of inequality, our findings suggest that the gender gap at the basic school level has closed following the introduction of the education expansion policies, but inequalities persist at the postbasic school levels and across regions. We further demonstrate that the educational expansion–schooling inequality nexus is best illustrated by an inverted U-shaped Kuznets curve. We find that after an average of 6 years of schooling has been reached, inequality starts to decline, and gender equality can be achieved when the average years of schooling reach 9.     

Earning functions in Portugal 1982–1994: Evidence from quantile regressions

This paper uses quantile regressions to describe the conditional wage distribution in Portugal and its evolution over the 1980s as well as the implications for increased wage inequality. We find that, although returns to schooling are positive at all quantiles, education is relatively more valued for highly paid jobs. Consequently, schooling has a positive impact on wage inequality. Moreover, this tendency has sharpened over the period. We also find that most of the estimated change in wage inequality was due to changes in the distribution of the worker's attributes, rather than to increased inequality within a particular type of worker. this version: January 2000     

INEQUALITY OF OPPORTUNITIES VS. INEQUALITY OF OUTCOMES: ARE WESTERN SOCIETIES ALL ALIKE?

This paper analyzes the relationship between income inequality and inequality of opportunities for income acquisition in nine developed countries during the 1990s. Equality of opportunity is defined as the situation where income distributions conditional on social origin cannot be ranked according to stochastic dominance criteria. We measure social origin by parental education and occupation and use the database built by Roemer et al. (2003 ). Stochastic dominance is assessed using nonparametric statistical tests. Our results indicate strong disparities in the degree of equality of opportunity across countries and a strong correlation between inequality of outcomes and inequality of opportunity. The U.S. and Italy show up as the most unequal countries in terms of both outcome and opportunity. At the opposite extreme, income distributions conditional on social origin are almost the same in Scandinavian countries even before any redistributive policy. We complement the ordinal comparison by resorting to an original scalar “Gini” index of opportunities, which can be decomposed into a risk and a return component. In our sample, inequality of opportunity is mostly driven by differences in mean income conditional on social origin, and differences in risk compensate the return element in most countries.     

The Effect of Female Education on Fertility and Infant Health: Evidence from School Entry Policies Using Exact Date of Birth

This paper uses age-at-school-entry policies to identify the effect of female education on fertility and infant health. We focus on sharp contrasts in schooling, fertility, and infant health between women born just before and after the school entry date. School entry policies affect female education and the quality of a woman's mate and have generally small, but possibly heterogeneous, effects on fertility and infant health. We argue that school entry policies manipulate primarily the education of young women at risk of dropping out of school.     

Mother's education and child development: Evidence from the compulsory school reform in China

This paper investigates the causal impact of mother's schooling on various outcomes of adolescent development by exploiting the temporal and geographical variations in the enforcement of compulsory schooling laws in China. Using data from China Family Panel Studies, we find that mother's education increases adolescents’ school enrollment, math test scores, college aspiration, and internal locus of control related to education. Mother's education also improves adolescent mental health status and reduces the incidence of underweight. We also find considerable gender heterogeneity in the effects of mother's education. The results further indicate that mother's education leads to an increase in family resources for children and an improvement in maternal mental health and parenting, which we interpret as potential mechanisms behind our findings.     

Inequality Beyond GDP: A Long View

This paper addresses international inequality in multidimensional well-being during the last one-and-a-half centuries. Inequality fell in health and education since the late 1920s, due to the globalization of mass schooling and the diffusion of the health transition, but only dropped in population-weighted terms from 1970 onward for political and civil liberties, as the emergence of authoritarian regimes increased its dispersion since the end of World War I. In terms of augmented human development inequality declined since 1900. These results are at odds with per capita income inequality that rose over time and only shrank from 1990 onward. The gap between the OECD and the Rest of the world accounted only partially for inequality in well-being since the dispersion within developing regions became its main driver from the mid-20th century onward. Countries in the middle and lower deciles of the world distribution achieved the largest relative gain over the past century.     

Income distribution and economic development: Insights from machine learning

We draw upon recent advances that combine causal inferences with machine learning, to show that poverty is the key income distribution measure that matters for development outcomes. In a predictive framework, we first show that LASSO chooses only the headcount measure of poverty from 37 income distribution measures in predicting schooling, institutional quality, and per capita income. Next, causal inferences with post‐LASSO models indicate that poverty matters more strongly for development outcomes than does the Gini coefficient. Finally, instrumental variable estimates in conjunction with post‐LASSO models show that compared to Gini, poverty is more strongly causally associated with schooling and per capita income, but not institutional quality. Our results question the literature's overwhelming focus on the Gini coefficient. At the least, our results imply that the causal link from inequality (as measured by Gini) to development outcomes is tenuous.     

GENDER DIFFERENCES IN VOCATIONAL SCHOOL TRAINING AND EARNINGS PREMIUMS IN TAIWAN

Abstract

International capital mobility and economic restructuring have brought training and skills acquisition to the forefront of policy dialogues. Taiwan has gone beyond most countries in promoting vocational education and setting strict quotas for schooling. Although the education plans do not have separate targets for men and women, they have gendered outcomes. Estimates of earnings premiums using ordinary least squares and quantile regression techniques indicate that only men have gained consistently higher premiums from vocational school compared to general schooling. Women who were denied access to the university system have forgone college premiums that exceed those of men. Also, the commerce track, in which women cluster, yields an earnings penalty compared to general schooling, while the technical track, in which men predominate, yields an earnings premium. Policy reforms based on relaxing education quotas and enforcing equal opportunity legislation would provide women with more rewarding education and career options.     

Can social spending cushion the inequality effect of globalization?

This paper examines whether social spending cushions the effect of globalization on within‐country inequality. Using information on disposable and market income inequality and data on overall social spending, and health and education spending from the ILO and the World Bank/WHO, we analyze whether social spending moderates the association between economic globalization and inequality. The results confirm that economic globalization—especially economic flows—associates with higher income inequality, an effect driven by non‐OECD countries. Health spending is strongly associated with lower inequality, but we find no robust evidence that any kind of social spending negatively moderates the association between economic globalization and inequality.     

Equality of opportunity and the expansion of higher education in the UK

Using nine waves of data from Understanding Society (UKHLS), we study the expansion of higher education in the UK and its consequences for levels of and inequalities in income, physical and mental health. University expansion was characterized by a large increase in the proportion of graduates, with higher rates of graduation among individuals from more advantaged socioeconomic backgrounds. Having controlled for birth cohort and lifecycle effects, there is evidence of significant inequality of opportunity (IOp) in the actual outcomes. However, comparing actual outcomes with counterfactual projections, that freeze the likelihood of university graduation and the joint distribution of graduation and circumstances to the pre-1963 levels, we do not detect an impact of the expansion of higher education on IOp in income and only small reductions in IOp in physical and mental health.     

Human capital and income inequality in India: is there a non-linear and asymmetric relationship?

The article attempts to provide empirical evidence on the relationship between human capital and income inequality in India in a non-linear and asymmetric framework. To capture both long-run and short-run asymmetries, we have employed the non-linear autoregressive distributed lag approach using the relevant data from 1970 to 2016. Findings of the article suggest that education expansion acts as a major factor in reducing prevailing high income inequality, that is an increase in average years of schooling results in more equal distribution of income. In contrast, high economic growth, inflation and trade openness create unequal distribution of income. The asymmetric causality test results indicate that there is unidirectional causality running from female human capital, economic growth and inflation to income inequality. From a policy perspective, we suggest that education expansion should be used as a powerful tool to mitigate income inequality by emphasizing the quality of education. At the same time, policies geared towards social benefits, inclusive education, training for unskilled workers and price stability should be encouraged to attain fair income distribution in India.     

Impact of Human Capital Endowments on Inequality of Outcomes in Cameroon

This paper evaluates the impact of human capital endowments on measured inequality in Cameroon. We first estimate determinants of household economic well‐being (HEW) in which human capital endowments are considered as endogenous effort‐related regressors, while controlling for exogenous circumstance‐related variables. Second, we simulate alternative counterfactual distributions of HEW: one in which human capital endowments are equalized; and the other in which variations are entirely attributable to the unobservable terms. Finally we compare inequality in the factual distribution of household well‐being with inequality in each of the simulated distributions. Direct and indirect exogenous opportunity‐inducing circumstances are inequality‐augmenting, whereas human capital endowments are inequality‐reducing in the actual distribution. Education and health interventions will ameliorate well‐being and mitigate inequality. Thus, leveling the playing ground for individuals to have equitable exposure to education, health and labor market participation is required for a low‐income country like Cameroon to enhance equity and sustainable household economic growth.