一路歌吟五华年 跃上葱茏谱新篇——第五届威尔士周在渝隆重举行

从神秘的古堡、绵长的海岸线,到冷峻的高原;从绚丽的都市、颇具地方特色的博物馆,到宁静的小镇……自2007年开始,每年春季威尔士的"红龙"犹如一只报春鸟,拉开威尔士与重庆两地间诸多领域交流合作的序幕。     

Assessing Local Government Debt Risks in China: A Case Study of Local Government Financial Vehicles

Strong credit expansion in China after the recent global financial crisis has brought local government financial vehicles (LGFV) into the spotlight. Rapid growth of LGFV has triggered concern about local government indebtedness, banks' asset quality and, more broadly, China's medium‐term financial stability and sovereign risk. This paper constructs a unique firm‐level dataset to evaluate the country's local government debt. We find an uneven distribution of LGFV, which are concentrated in the coastal areas, and a deterioration of their debt repaying ability from 2010 to 2012. We use principal component analysis (PCA) along with multivariate discriminate analysis (MDA) to identify the credit risk of LGFV based on conventional financial variables as well as local governments' fiscal status. We also estimate the safe boundaries of debt bearing at the provincial government level. The estimations reveal more severe local government debt risks in the middle‐western provinces and higher risks associated with LGFV at the municipal and county levels. Although it is very unlikely that there will be a national debt crisis in China, the high risk of LGFV should be noted and effectively controlled by improving the fiscal transparency of local governments and reforming the fiscal system.     

A new look at the New South Wales Corps, 1790–1810

This paper shows the New South Wales Corps as a changing entity with a considerable impact on the New South Wales economy until 1810. Findings include the large number of men (1,645) who served in New South Wales, while the total population was less than 5,000, and the importance of the Corps as a source of free settlers in the period before free immigration. Convicts were recruited locally and as a group outweighed arrivals from the Savoy Military Prison, cited in the past as the bad element in the Corps. The Corps contained a reasonably high proportion of skilled men who contributed formally and informally to the colony’s productivity both before and after discharge. The study shows that the officer group was relatively stable before 1800 but that turnover was fairly high thereafter. Finally it is shown that the influence of the New South Wales Corps did not cease with its recall, for well over half the regiment remained in the colony, some seventy–one as settlers and 356 as troops under Macquarie’s command — including a special Veteran Corps.     

Quantifying Inefficient Expenditure in Local Government: A Free Disposable Hull Analysis of a Sample of South African Municipalities

Municipalities in South Africa play a pivotal role in the provision of basic services to communities. However, local government as a sphere in the country is notorious for its spending inefficiency, which is cited as a major factor in service delivery failure. This paper quantifies inefficient expenditure at the local government level by estimating efficiency scores for a sample of 129 municipalities in South Africa from the 2005/2006 to the 2009/2010 municipal financial years. In essence, this paper examines the technical efficiency of municipalities by using the nonparametric free disposable hull approach and finds that 10 municipalities are constantly efficient over the period. On average, input efficiency scores range from 42% to 46%, suggesting that, in general, municipalities can achieve the same output levels with over 50% less resources. Quantitatively for the 2009/2010 financial year, this amounts to a total of R80 billion being spent inefficiently, which equates to R220 million being “wasted” per day.     

Convict Transportation to New South Wales, 1787–1849: Mortality Rates Reconsidered

Previous research into Australian convict transportation has concluded that a significant downturn in mortality rates occurred with the appointment of naval surgeons as superintendents in 1815. Statistical analysis of convict ships sent to New South Wales between 1787 and 1849 shows a more significant downturn occurred in 1800, following the introduction of closer supervision of ships' surgeons. The contracting system established by the Navy Board in 1786 for the transportation of convicts to New South Wales could be made to work as long as government maintained an effective system of inspection and supervision.