Homeownership Effects of Alternative Mortgage Instruments*

Most of the interest in alternatives to the standard mortgage instrument has centered on the ability of the alternatives to improve on the performance of the mortgage instrument over the business cycle. The focus in this paper is on the long-term effects on homeownership rates and associated additional residential construction. The instruments are found to offer potentially large increases in homeownership rates by reducing monthly mortgage payments. Widespread adoption of those instruments causing larger payment reductions would allow around one million more households to become owner-occupants. The demand for new single-family homes would increase over the long run by 3 to 4 percent a year. Homeownership could be further increased by a time-limited subsidy directed at moderate income families.     

Borrower Attitudes Toward Alternative Mortgage Instruments*

Much of the existing literature on homeownership assumes that financial markets work well enough to allow households to translate permanent income into effective demand. However, transaction costs, imperfections, and uncertainties all constrain the markets' operation so that people are often forced to choose a quantity of housing stock that diverges from their desired consumption level. Instead of being able to borrow against future income for the down payment or to make monthly payments in a pattern that matches future income, young families in their early years may be constrained from purchasing the size house they desire, and older households may remain in homes larger than they need. In light of these market imperfections, housing and tenure decisions depend not only on permanent income and the relative price of housing services, but also on such mortgage parameters as monthly payment patterns, down payment, and rate of equity accumulation. Models of the demand for housing and homeownership described in the existing literature do not include these parameters of mortgage finance. Mortgage terms are important factors in housing consumption and investment decisions. Because the standard mortgage no longer seems appropriate for all households under all economic conditions, the extent to which alternative mortgage instruments meet the requirements and preferences of different segments of the market becomes an important issue.     

The Home Purchase Mortgage Preferences of Low- and Moderate-Income Households

Housing policy in the United States has long supported homeownership, yet variation persists across income groups. This article employs recent mortgage origination data to focus on the revealed preferences of low- and moderate-income (LMI) households in home purchase mortgage choice. I identify the factors associated with conventional conforming, FHA, nonprime and specially targeted programs. Empirical results show that individual credit characteristics and financial factors, including pricing, generally drive product choice, with some variation evident when loans are originated through brokers. Results also indicate that targeted conventional programs effectively compete with government-insured products in the LMI segment.     

Fixed Come Hell or High Water? Selection and Prepayment of Fixed‐Rate Mortgages Outside the United States

We examine the decision to prepay a fixed‐rate mortgage in the United Kingdom, Canada, Ireland, Australia and New Zealand. These countries are characterized by having substantial fees which are associated with breaking a fixed‐rate mortgage. We develop a model which allows for fluctuations both in banks’ wholesale rates and credit spreads. We find that households can achieve economically significant benefits both from following an optimal prepayment strategy contingent on the break fee used by their bank and also by selection of fixed interest rate term and (where available) break fee structure.     

The Impacts of Remittances, Residency Status and Financial Attachment on Housing Tenure for Mexican-Heritage Americans: Inferences from a New Survey

Immigration has and will continue to alter the composition of housing demand in the United Sates. In this article, we analyze results from a new survey of Mexican-heritage households to draw some inferences about tenure choice within that group. Some measures of attachment to the United States—residency status and the amount of money sent to relatives and friends in Mexico—suggest that, among Mexican immigrants, permanence is a key determinant of homeownership in the United States. More specifically, being a citizen increased the probability of ownership, whereas being undocumented reduces the probability. Surprisingly, after controlling for residency status, length of tenure in the United States does not predict tenure status, except that those who refused to report length of tenure were more likely to have higher tenure status. Those who sent remittances home to Mexico were less likely to become homeowners.     

Immigrants and Mortgage Delinquency

This article studies the effect of immigrant status on mortgage delinquency. Due to their different social and economic background, immigrant households may not integrate well into the host society, and therefore are more likely to be delinquent on mortgages than otherwise identical native‐born households. We test this hypothesis by comparing the mortgage delinquency rate between immigrant and native‐born households in the 2009 PSID (Panel Study of Income Dynamics) data, in which all the immigrant households have been in the United States for more than 10 years. We find that, after controlling for observables, those relatively recent immigrants who have been in the United States for 10 to 20 years have a higher mortgage delinquency rate than native‐born, while immigrants who have resided in the United States for more than 20 years are no different from native‐borns. In addition, there is no evidence that the second generation of immigrants is more likely to be delinquent than the third‐or‐higher generations. Our results are robust to potential sample‐selection bias and functional misspecifications.     

Distributional Consequences of Alternative Mortgage Instruments

One of the major factors hindering the introduction of alternative mortgage instruments is the possibility of adverse consequences to certain groups of households seeking to obtain credit for homeownership. This study examines this issue through an analysis of cross-sectional household data obtained from the 1970 Survey of Consumer Finances. Using multiple regression analysis, a series of structural demand models are derived and estimated. These models relate the probability of homeownership, levels of housing consumption, mortgage credit usage, and downpayment to income, assets, and other socioeconomic variables, to variables representing the relative price of housing and homeownership, and to certain variables representing the present value and cash flow costs of mortgage credit. Several mortgage-related variables are found to be influential in housing demand decisions. These models are then used to simulate alternative instrument introduction. The graduated-payment and price-level adjusted mortgages are predicted to be superior to the current instrument of mortgage finance in encouraging homeownership, housing consumption, and the use of mortgage credit among all household classes. The standard variable-rate mortgage, especially one tied to a short-term interest rate, is predicted to be inferior to the standard instrument, with the most adverse impacts upon lower-income, young, elderly, and black households.     

How Does Mortgage Debt Affect Household Consumption? Micro Evidence from China

The high growth rate of mortgage debt in various emerging and developed economies has captured headlines following the financial crisis. In this article, we investigate how mortgage debt impacts household consumption behavior and various components of household consumption. Utilizing comprehensive household survey data from China, we show that households with a mortgage consume a higher portion of income than households without a mortgage. This is in line with the argument that having a mortgage reduces the uncertainty that the household faces regarding how much to save each month in order to be able to own a house, and this reduced uncertainty leads to lower monthly savings for the purpose of buying a house. We also find that among households with a mortgage, those who spend a larger share of their income on mortgage payments spend less on consumption, reflecting the crowding out effect of mortgage payments on household consumption. Furthermore, we show that a government policy of decreasing the maximum loan‐to‐value ratio has a significant impact on households’ consumption. The article offers the first evidence of the impact of growing mortgage debt on the consumption behavior of households, and will have implications for government policies that encourage mortgage borrowing.     

Mortgage Borrower Repayment Behavior: A Microeconomic Analysis with Canadian Adjustable Rate Mortgage Data

In this paper we estimate a model of mortgage borrower behavior using micro-level data on Canadian borrowers with rollover mortgages—a form of adjustable-rate mortgage. Our results suggest that the probability of default rises with a decrease in housing equity and an increase in the mortgage contract rate; however the size of these changes is relatively small. They also show that partial prepayment is sensitive to fluctuations in the rates of return from investing in housing versus other assets. For the United States experience, our results suggest that, relative to fixed-rate mortgage borrowers, adjustable-rate mortgage borrowers are more likely to default and less likely to prepay.     

Mobility-Tenure Decisions and Financial Credit: Do Mortgage Qualification Requirements Constrain Homeownership?

Housing analysts have generally assumed that mortgage qualification requirements significantly constrain homownership, however there has been no empirical evidence of this effect. By explicitly modeling and estimating the impact of mortgage qualification requirements on households' mobility and tenure decisions, this paper provides the first empirical evidence of the effect of these criteria on homeownership. The estimation results suggest that in 1986, mortgage qualification criteria did not provide a large constraint on homeownership. However, they also show that the impact of these criteria increases as the flow costs of owning decrease relative to those of renting. This implies that the nationwide significance of these constraints will vary with fluctuations in the macro economy, and that policies designed to limit the effect of these requirements will be more successful in economic environments favorable to homeownership.     

The Liquidity of Property Shares: An International Comparison

This article investigates the magnitude and determinates of share liquidity over the 1990–2007 period in the world's four largest securitized real estate markets: the United States, the United Kingdom, Continental Europe and Australia. We document a significant and consistent role for market capitalization, nonretail share ownership and dividend yield as drivers of liquidity across markets. We also document significant differences in liquidity across countries and between property and nonproperty companies. Also striking is the lack of correlation among our three measures of liquidity across property firms and time. This supports the notion that share price liquidity is multifaceted and therefore reliance on any one measure of liquidity in empirical work may produce misleading conclusions. Although we find some evidence of a connection between liquidity and firm value, it is less conclusive than prior studies.     

Homeownership and Child Welfare

Recent studies have concluded that homeownership is beneficial to children. This result is important because it is used to justify large government subsidies that encourage homeownership. We reexamine the results of two of the most prominent of these studies using the Panel Study of Income Dynamics, Public Use Microsample, and National Longitudinal Survey of Youth data. We extend this research by controlling for residential mobility, wealth, dwelling type and vehicle ownership, as well as by using a "differences in differences" methodology to deal with possible treatment effects bias. We find that the beneficial effects of homeownership previously measured are substantially reduced or eliminated by controlling for these factors. We confirm these results using data from the Early Childhood Longitudinal Study.     

Down Payment Saving in the United States: Evidence from the Panel Study of Income Dynamics

We present a model of household saving toward a mortgage loan under an exogenous down payment requirement and preference for owning over renting. Our model explains a set of empirical observations such as the dual effect in the form of some households, in response to higher down payments, becoming discouraged savers while those who do not abandon purchasing plans save more. We also employ instrumental variable‐based methods to investigate the down payment saving behavior of first‐time home buyers in the United States. The empirical results based on Panel Study of Income Dynamics (PSID) data support the inelastic down payment elasticity of saving implied by our model.     

Does Homeownership Prolong the Duration of Unemployment?

We examine the effects of homeownership on individuals' unemployment durations. An unemployment spell can terminate with a job or with nonparticipation. The endogeneity of homeownership is addressed by estimating a full maximum likelihood function jointly modeling the competing hazards and the probability of being a homeowner. Unobserved factors contributing to the probability of being a homeowner are allowed to be correlated with unobservable heterogeneity in the hazard rates. Not controlling for ownership selection, there is neither a significant difference in the job‐finding hazard nor in the nonparticipation hazard of unemployed owners and renters. If we jointly model the ownership selection, we find that unemployed homeowners are more likely to find a job than renters.     

Measurement of the Spreads Between Yields on Various Mortgage Contracts and Treasury Securities

Spreads between yields on different mortgage instruments and comparable maturity portfolios of Treasury securities have been computed and compared with quoted yields over the 1974–82 period for three different mortgage instruments: GNMA pass-throughs, FHLMC participation certificates, and conventional mortgage commitments. The methodology explicitly accounts for the expected timing of the payments on the mortgages and thus avoids the cash-flow timing problems noted in the literature.
Between late 1978 and 1981, the computed spreads rose by 30 to 40 basis points relative to those customarily quoted (the internal rate of return on a mortgage, assuming a twelve-year life, less the yield on near-par ten-year Treasuries). This increase can be attributed to the rise in the level of interest rates (the compounding error in quoted mortgage yields is larger at higher levels of rates) and the change in the slope of the yield curve from flat to downward sloping (the twelve-year prepayment date assumed in the computation of quoted GNMA and FHLMC PC yields seems to be too long).     

The Influence of Household Formation on Homeownership Rates Across Time and Race

Homeownership rates equal the number of households that own homes divided by the number of households in the population. Differences in the propensity to form a household, therefore, may contribute to changes in homeownership rates over time in addition to long-standing racial gaps in homeownership. We examine these issues on an age-specific basis using data from the 1970 to 2000 public use microsamples of the decennial census. Results indicate that lower headship rates tend to reduce homeownership rates. This pattern is most notable for individuals in their early and mid 20s. For these individuals, declining headship rates between 1970 and 2000 reduced homeownership rates by three to five percentage points. Moreover, 2000 African American headship rates narrow white–black gaps in homeownership by roughly three percentage points, whereas 2000 Hispanic headship rates widen white–Hispanic gaps in homeownership by two to three percentage points. Thus, controlling for differences in headship behavior, white–black homeownership gaps are somewhat more severe than previously recognized, but the reverse is true for white–Hispanic gaps.     

Homeownership Returns, Tenure Choice and Inflation

This paper empirically investigates the impact of inflation on homeownership returns and tenure choice when the assumptions underlying the user cost of housing are modified to reflect separately the effects of unanticipated and anticipated inflation. The analysis demonstrates that when the user cost model is specified to reflect the impact of anticipated inflation on house prices, the mortgage interest rate and the capitalization rate, the returns to homeownership are lower than determined by previous user cost studies and are consistent with a reasonably efficient market.     

Inflation,Taxes, and the Demand For Housing*

Inflation affects homeownership and housing adversely through the “real-payment tilt” of the conventional mortgage. Expectations of additional housing price appreciation, however, may induce households to invest in housing. This paper uses household data to estimate the demand for homeownership and housing, and it takes explicit notice of expectations of housing price appreciation. The results indicate for each 1% increase in the inflation rate that the conditional probability of purchase falls by 3%. Interest rate effects outweigh appreciation and tax effects. Given the decision to purchase, housing appreciation expectations do not have large effects on the amount purchased.     

What drives screening incentives in nonbank mortgage originators?

Nonbank mortgage originators, which operate through the originate-to-distribute (OTD) model, account for more than half of all the mortgage origination in the United States. However, less is known about which factors drive the quality of mortgage originations through nonbanks. I show that an exogenous shock that reduced collateral risk for funding intermediaries of nonbank mortgage originators led to a greater issuance of riskier mortgages that culminated in 10–30% higher ex post defaults. These results show how the quality of mortgage origination in the OTD model of nonbanks is affected by the collateral risk borne by their funding intermediaries. Overall, the results highlight funding intermediaries' monitoring incentives as one of the factors that drive the quality of mortgage originations through nonbanks.     

The Effects of Securitization on Mortgage Market Yields: A Cointegration Analysis

Securitization of the residential mortgage market has completely transformed the process of financing home loans in the U.S. over the last two decades. We examine the effects of securitization on yield spreads in the primary mortgage market. Cointegration techniques are employed to test the relationship between the increasing volume of mortgage securities over time and the yield spread on mortgage loan rates. We find that a 10% increase in the level of mortgage securitization as a proportion of total mortgage originations decreases yield spreads on home loans by as much as 20 basis points. Other results indicate that, while prepayment speed has a significant effect on mortgage yield spreads, default risk does not. We conclude that securitization of the residential mortgage market plays an important role in decreasing the cost of home loans.