论双边自由贸易的迅速发展与我国的对策

美州各国间的双边自由贸易。美洲特别是中南美地区,双边贸易的发展最为引人注目。1999年末,南北美共有23个经济联合体,其中,除2个共同体（加勒比海共同体和安迪斯共同体）、2个共同市场（中美共同市场和南美南部共同市场）、2个自由贸易区（北美自由贸易区和墨西可、哥伦比亚、委内瑞拉三国自由贸易区）外,其余17个都是1991年后,以双边自由贸易协定为基础的双边经济联合。其中,由经济联合组织与某一国签订的双边自由贸易协定有5个（加勒比海共同体和委内瑞拉、哥伦比亚和多米尼加,中美共同市场和多米尼加,安迪斯共同体和巴西）,由两国签订的双边自由贸易协定有12个。签订双边自由贸易协定最多的国家是智利和墨西哥,1991年以来,智利分别与墨西哥、委内瑞拉、玻利维亚、哥伦比亚、厄多尔、加拿大,秘鲁等7国签订了双边自由贸易协定,墨西哥分别与智利、哥斯达利加加、玻利维亚、尼加拉、萨尔瓦多、危地马拉和洪都拉斯等国签订了双边自由协定以后,双分别与厄多尔、巴拿马和秘鲁开始了双边自由贸易的谈判;与此同时,安迪斯共同体和马拿巴、中美共同市场和智利、中美共同市场和巴拿马,也分别开展了双边自由贸易的谈判。     

中美经贸合作将获得持久稳定的发展

中美于1979年正式建交以来,两国经济贸易关系进入了一个新的发展时期。双边贸易额获得较快增长,经济技术合作也逐渐开展起来。今年1月我国赵紫阳总理对美国进行了成功的访问,里根总统也将于今年4月访华。随着两国领导人的互访,中美两国的关系将会得到稳定的发展,两国的贸易往来、经济合作和技术交流,也将得到新的推动。中美建交后不久,邓小平副总理访问了美国,两国政府商定了建立中美联合经济委员会,相继签订了中美贸易关系协定,解决了互相给予最惠国待遇问题。随后又签订了粮食和纺织品协议、投资保险和保证协议、海运和民航协定等一系列协定和协议,为两国经济贸易     

假命题:“人民币汇率操纵”—一个基于马歇尔勒纳条件的实证

本文以后危机时代为背景,在中美人民币汇率现实争端以及学术界现有研究的基础上,从《IMF协定》关于"汇率操控"的定义出发、通过实证研究和对中美两国贸易实践的理论分析,得出美国等发达国家对中国政府"汇率操控"的指控不满足马歇尔-勒纳条件,即人民币贬值并不能带来中美贸易顺差。中美之间的贸易实践也有力地证明了美国对中国政府操纵汇率的责难缺乏事实依据和理论基础。美元主宰的国际货币体系、美元的霸权地位、美国的出口管制、美国的经济结构、消费模式等才是美国贸易逆差的最主要原因。     

节能减排与应对全球气候变化高层论坛北京开幕

国务院总理温家宝18日在钓鱼台国宾馆会见美国总统奥巴马。 温家宝指出,中美建交30年来,双边贸易额大幅度增长,这符合两国和两国人民的根本利益。中国不追求贸易顺差,希望美国改变对华出口管制政策,提高高技术产品出口比重。同时两国应加强在能源、环保、高科技等领域的相互投资与合作,促进双边贸易趋于平衡。中美要共同反对贸易和投资保护主义。     

中美纺织品贸易的困境及出路

中美之间的纺织品贸易有较长历史,在双边经贸关系中占有重要地位,近十多年来虽然增长很快,但存在的障碍却不容忽视.本文介绍了美国利用“多种纤维协定”阻碍两国纺织品贸易的情况,着重分析了乌拉圭回合签定的“纺织品与服装协定”对中美纺织品贸易的影响以及美国的纺织品贸易政策走向.     

放松管制下的自由竞争原则——美国航空运输业中的反垄断

航空运输业是一个资本密集型行业,进入成本较高,比较容易集中.同时各国航空运输业都经历了或者还在经历政府对航空运输业的严格管制,在严格管制条件下,政府对建立航空公司、票价、运力、航线进出等进行严格控制,航空运输业实际上是处于一种"强制性垄断"环境下.恰恰由于政府的控制地位,反垄断就无从谈起.随着1978年发端于美国的放松对航空运输业的管制,在欧美国家,特别是美国如何维持航空运输市场的自由竞争,反对垄断行为、保护消费者利益就显得尤为突出.     

美国2012年双边投资协定范本与中美双边投资协定谈判

本文首先介绍了美国2012年双边投资协定范本修订的主要内容,在此基础上对中美双边投资协定谈判中方应采取的立场进行了分析。本文认为美国2012年双边投资协定范本修订中涉及国家主导型经济体的内容对中方的影响有限。面对目前国际投资协定中准入前国民待遇条款日益增多的形式,本文认为中国应该支持多哈部长宣言第22段倡导的基于肯定清单的准入前国民待遇,以此为基础与美国及其他经济体展开投资自由化谈判。本文最后对中美双边投资协定谈判提出了一系列政策建议。     

完善我国实施“一带一路”战略的税收征管制度

<正>一、实施"一带一路"战略的税收征管制度初步建立(一)加快税收协定谈签我国已与115个国家和地区建立了包括避免双重征税协定和情报交换协定在内的双边税收合作法律机制,基本覆盖了我国主要投资目的地和投资来源地。2015年以来,我国与智利、津巴布韦、俄罗斯、罗马尼亚和波兰等国签署了税收协定(议定书)。此外,我国内地和香港、澳门签署了税收安排议定书,大陆与台湾签     

基于PEST分析法的中国航空运输市场环境剖析

中国航空运输市场正逐步开放,但非国有资本的进入并没有带来"鲶鱼效应".从政治法律环境来看,非国有资本进入中国航空运输市场的政策障碍已基本消除;除国际通行的对外资进行股权限制之外,目前中国航空运输市场已向境内、外资本全面开放.从经济环境和社会文化环境来看,中国航空运输市场具有广阔发展空间,从而为投资者带来巨大的投资机会.从技术环境和价格管制、航油垄断来看,低成本航空在中国尚不具有可行性.     

境内

7月25日 中美签署航空协定 指定航班可飞对方任何城市 中美航空协定当日在北京签署。新协定中对双方客运航班的地点限制予以“放行”,即中美指定航空公司将被允许飞往对方的任何城市。在原有协议中,中国的航空公司只能飞往美国12个城市,美国的航空公司只能飞往中国的北京、上海、广州等5个城市。同时,新协议对涉及这一区域的运输在承运人、运力和航权安排上给予更为自由灵活的安排。     

International air passenger services: The determinants of bata negotiation outcomes

International air passenger services, like services in general, have played an increasingly important role in international commerce. No such services would take place, however, without bilateral air transport agreements (BATAs). This study examines the determinants of the outcomes of the BATA negotiation process. It focuses on United States flags hare, a key outcome. Using regression analysis, this study finds that the importance of the other country's airline to that country's government has a significant negative effect on U.S. flagshare. The importance of tourism to the economy of the other country has a significant positive effect on U.S. flagshare, as does the size of the market between the United States and the other country. In contrast, this study finds no support for the relevance of U.S. citizen share or U.S. military basing privileges in the other country.     

Open Skies over the Middle East

The dynamism of air traffic markets in the Middle East obscures the persistence of restrictions on international competition. But how important are such restrictions for passenger traffic? This paper uses detailed data on worldwide passenger aviation to estimate the effect of air transport policy on international air traffic. The policy variable is a quantitative measure of the commitments under international agreements. The paper analyses, for the first time, not only bilateral agreements, but also plurilateral agreements such as the one among Arab states. The analysis finds that more liberal policy is associated with greater passenger traffic between countries. Higher traffic levels appear to be driven by larger numbers of city‐pairs being served, as well as by more passengers travelling along given routes. To demonstrate the quantitative implication of the estimates, two liberalisation scenarios in the Middle East are evaluated. Deepening the plurilateral agreement among Arab states would lead to a 30 per cent increase in intraregional passenger traffic. Widening the agreement to include Turkey would generate significantly larger gains because current policy vis‐à‐vis Turkey is much more restrictive.     

Convergence in the Americas: Some Lessons from the DR‐CAFTA Process

The proliferation of trade agreements in the Americas is a major cause for concern as it might fragment or inhibit the emergence of a hemispheric trading system. In addition to establishing a free trade area between the US and six countries in Latin America, the DR‐CAFTA consolidates a set of trade arrangements among those six Latin American countries. The approaches and techniques employed to achieve this consolidation should be studied by policy analysts and negotiators of broader hemispheric‐wide negotiations since the DR‐CAFTA is in fact a microcosm of the spaghetti bowl of trade agreements now existing in the Americas. This paper points out the potential consequences of the proliferation of trade agreements in the Americas and provides an analysis of the convergence techniques and approaches used in the DR‐CAFTA, in particular in the areas of market access and rules of origin.     

Preferential trading arrangements as strategic positioning

We analyze a three-country model of trade negotiations in which countries can form bilateral free trade areas, bilateral customs unions or a trilateral preferential trading arrangement, and can continue negotiating after reaching an agreement. In contrast to the literature on multilateral bargaining, the set of agreements can form a (nonpartitional) network, while in contrast to the network literature, players can reach multilateral agreements. Patient enough countries only reach bilateral agreements if insiders gain more than outsiders, which allows them to manipulate the status quo in subsequent negotiations. However, a hub and spoke pattern may then emerge, and insiders then dissipate the advantages of strategic positioning. We also use variants on the model to explain why a US commitment not to bargain bilaterally sustained progress at GATT negotiations, and the rarity of open access preferential trading arrangements.     

Growing market concentration and changes in consumer welfare: The case of the U.S. commercial airline market

Initial assessments of the economic deregulation of the U.S. airline industry indicated that most consumers gained from the increased competition in the airline market. More recent studies have reached less favorable conclusions. In this study, changes in passenger welfare are determined for 19 U.S. destination cities for the years 1979, 1983, and 1987 on the basis of Hicks' equivalent variation measure, using a counterfactual research design. Particular attention is given to variations in consumer welfare gains/losses depending on (a) the proportion of the change in air fares attributed to deregulation, and (b) the destination airport's classification. The estimates suggest that travelers to large, long-standing hub cities were generally insulated from any large post-1979 welfare changes. Travelers to new hubs experienced substantial welfare declines between 1979 and 1987 — although their post-1983 welfare changes were uniformly positive. Travel to nonhub airports showed the greatest variance, with both the relatively largest welfare gains and the relatively largest losses.     

Failure to Deliver: The Investment Effects of US Preferential Economic Agreements

Global trade and investment rules are increasingly determined by bilateral and regional agreements, which are widely expected to increase economic ties between the signatories. Even though the United States is a relative newcomer to these narrower economic agreements, it has signed several different types with dozens of partner countries. These agreements, which often require partners to make costly policy changes, are nonetheless attractive because they provide preferential access to the US market and promise increased inward investment. In this paper, we compare the investment effects of three different types of agreements and find little evidence that existing international agreements (trade and investment framework agreements, bilateral investment treaties or preferential trade agreements) tend to increase investment from the United States. After exploring other potential explanations, we conclude that US treaty partners may have unrealistic expectations for agreements to increase direct investment.     

Book review

The paper develops a general equilibrium model of international production and trade. Technology is carried across borders by multinational producers and the set of technologies being used in a particular country is endogenous. Production locations are chosen based on the costs of production and getting the product to market. A producer may manufacture its product in its home country, target market country, or a third country. Estimated model parameters describe the states of technology in different countries, barriers to international investment, and trade costs. It is found that the barriers to international trade and investment are highly correlated. The model is used to measure the extent of technology diffusion across countries, study the relationship between international production and trade, investigate the effects of free-trade agreements (FTAs) on offshoring, and to quantify the welfare effects of international production and trade.     

Beyond the WTO? An Anatomy of EU and US Preferential Trade Agreements

It is often alleged that PTAs involving the EC and the US include a significant number of obligations in areas not currently covered by the WTO Agreement, such as investment protection, competition policy, labour standards and environmental protection. The primary purpose of this study is to highlight the extent to which these claims are true. The study divides the contents of all PTAs involving the EC and the US currently notified to the WTO, into 14 ‘WTO+’ and 38 ‘WTO‐X’ areas, where WTO+ provisions come under the current mandate of the WTO, and WTO‐X provisions deal with issues lying outside the current WTO mandate. As a second step, the legal enforceability of each obligation is evaluated, and judged on the extent to which the text specifies clear obligations. Among the findings are: (i) EC agreements contain almost four times as many instances of WTO‐X provisions as do US agreements; (ii) but EC agreements evidence a very significant amount of ‘legal inflation’ (i.e. non‐legally enforceable provisions) in the WTO‐X category, and US agreements actually contain more enforceable WTO‐X provisions than do the EC agreements; (iii) US agreements tend to emphasise regulatory areas more compared to EC agreements.     

US trade preferences and export performance of developing countries: Evidence from the generalized system of preferences

Preferential market access such as the generalized system of preferences (GSP) is clearly recognized as a way of enabling developing countries export their way out of poverty. It has been a vital feature of industrialized countries' commercial policy for nearly 30 years. This study empirically explores the linkages between US trade preferences under the GSP and beneficiary country exports. Using a large US import database covering over 120 developing countries, the study examines the extent to which GSP influences export performance. The results largely indicate that the GSP has a significant and positive effect on beneficiary exports to US for all country and product groups. A proper understanding of this relationship will help donors and recipients devise appropriate policies to help encourage the growth and diversification of exports that is so vital for developing countries.     

我国旅游业与民航客运业相关性研究及启示

民航客运业和旅游业之间的发展有很强的关联性,旅游业三大市场(国内旅游市场、出境旅游市场、入境旅游市场)都与民航客运业呈显著的正相关关系.因此,一方面要加强民航客运业与旅游业之间的合作,抓好国内旅游市场的客源,继续保持民航客运在出境游旅客中的绝对优势,开辟旅游特色航线,开发配合旅游业的民航特色服务,使民航客运业与旅游业在发展中携手共进;另一方面,民航客运业的发展要跟上旅游业发展的脚步,在运力、航线网络覆盖面等方面满足旅游业发展的需求,将旅游业对民航客运业发展的辅助作用发挥到极致.