An Impact Evaluation of Education, Health, and Water Supply Investments by the Bolivian Social Investment Fund

This article reviews the results of an impact evaluation ofsmall-scale rural infrastructure projects in health, water,and education financed by the Bolivian Social Investment Fund.The impact evaluation used panel data on project beneficiariesand control or comparison groups and applied several evaluationmethodologies. An experimental design based on randomizationof the offer to participate in a social fund project was successfulin estimating impact when combined with bounds estimates toaddress noncompliance issues. Propensity score matching wasapplied to baseline data to reduce observable preprogram differencesbetween treatment and comparison groups. Results for educationprojects suggest that although they improved school infrastructure,they had little impact on education outcomes. In contrast, interventionsin health clinics, perhaps because they went beyond simply improvinginfrastructure, raised utilization rates and were associatedwith substantial declines in under-age-five mortality. Investmentsin small community water systems had no major impact on waterquality until combined with community-level training, thoughthey did increase the access to and the quantity of water. Thisincrease in quantity appears to have been sufficient to generatedeclines in under-age-five mortality similar in size to thoseassociated with the health interventions.     

Supporting Communities in Transition: The Impact of the Armenian Social Investment Fund

The Armenian Social Investment Fund supports communities' effortsto improve local infrastructure during Armenia's economic transitionaway from central planning, financing community-designed and-implemented projects to rehabilitate primary schools, watersystems, and other infrastructure. This article considers thetargeting, household impact, and community effects of the socialfund's activities. It relies on a nationally representativehousehold survey, oversampled in areas where the social fundwas active. Using propensity and pipeline matching techniquesto control for community self-selection into the social fund,it evaluates the household effects of rehabilitating schoolsand water systems. The results show that the social fund reachedpoor households, particularly in rural areas. Education projectsincreased households' spending on education significantly andhad mild effects on school attendance. Potable water projectsincreased household access to water and had mild positive effectson health. Communities that completed a social fund projectwere less likely than the comparison group to complete otherlocal infrastructure projects, suggesting that social capitalwas expended in these early projects. By contrast, communitiesthat joined the social fund later and had not yet completedtheir projects took more initiatives not supported by the socialfund.     

社会保险基金境外投资的条件分析及对策

中国人口老龄化速度的加快将会使得社会保险支出不断增加,再加上潜在兑付高峰的到来,实现社会保险基金（以下简称社保基金）投资的保值增值成为社保基金投资管理的迫切问题。笔者以实现社保基金保值增值为出发点,详细探讨了社保基金境外投资的必要性和可行性,并就加快推进社保基金境外投资提出了对策建议,试图通过适当的境外投资以实现社保基金的保值增值。     

证券投资基金和保险资金对股票市场影响的实证分析

本文利用上海证券交易所于2007年7月30日至2008年12月31日期间公布的Topview数据,对证券投资基金、保险资金的交易行为进行了实证分析,结果发现证券投资基金的交易行为是上证180指数(及指数的自然对数和对数收益率)变化的单向Granger原因,而上证180指数与保险资金交易行为之间不存在Granger因果关系。通过对相关变量的模型分析,我们发现在样本期间证券投资基金的交易行为对上证180指数(取对数)及其对数收益率的均值产生了微弱的正向影响,但没有对上证180指数(取对数)及其对数收益率的波动性(以残差或条件方差衡量)产生统计上显著的影响。     

The Impact and Targeting of Social Infrastructure Investments: Lessons from the Nicaraguan Social Fund

The benefit incidence and impact of projects financed by theNicaraguan Emergency Social Investment Fund are investigatedusing a sample of beneficiaries, a national household survey,and two distinct comparison groups. The first group is constructedon the basis of geographic proximity between similar facilitiesand their corresponding communities; the second is drawn fromthe national Living Standards Measurement Study survey sampleusing propensity score matching techniques. The analysis findsthat the social fund investments in latrines, schools, and healthposts are targeted to poor communities and households, whereasthose in sewerage are targeted to the better-off. Investmentsin water systems are poverty-neutral. Education investmentshave a positive, significant impact on school outcomes regardlessof the comparison group used. The results of health investmentsare less clear. Using one comparison group, the analysis findsthat use of health clinics increased as a result of the investments;using both, it finds higher use of clinics for children underage six with diarrhea. With neither comparison group does itfind improvements in health outcomes. Social fund investmentsin water and sanitation improve access to services but haveno effect on health outcomes.     

Mutual Fund Investment in Emerging Markets: An Overview

International mutual funds are key contributors to the globalizationof financial markets and one of the main sources of capitalflows to emerging economies. Despite their importance in emergingmarkets, little is known about their investment allocation andstrategies. This article provides an overview of mutual fundactivity in emerging markets. It describes their size, assetallocation, and country allocation and then focuses on theirbehavior during crises in emerging markets in the 1990s. Itanalyzes data at both the fund-manager and fund-investor levels.Due to large redemptions and injections, funds' flows are notstable. Withdrawals from emerging markets during recent criseswere large, which is consistent with the evidence on financialcontagion.     

开放式基金流动性风险对金融稳定的影响

我国股票市场发展的阶段性和不成熟性,使得应对开放式基金流动性风险的措施和机制缺失,从而扩大了风险可能带来的冲击,影响金融稳定和社会稳定.     

社会保障基金投资运营模式探讨

针对社会保障基金收支缺口比较大的现状,如何实现社会保障基金保值增值就显得十分重要.应构建投资运营的基本模式、基本途径,加快培育资本市场和其他要素市场,发展非银行金融机构,实现社会保障基金直接进入资本市场.     

基金流量与基金投资行为——基于动态面板数据模型的实证研究

本文通过引入基金流量变量,对中国证券投资基金是否稳定市场这一争议性命题进行解析,挖掘中国基金经理投资行为"异质性"背后的基金申赎行为因素,试图从基金流量引发基金经理资产配置动态调整的视角对中国证券投资基金"是否行为理性"这一重要命题进行重新诠释。在实证过程中,本文构建动态面板模型对2006～2010年股票型开放式基金季度数据进行估计,检验结果表明我国证券投资基金投资行为受到基金流量的显著影响,基金持有人行为对基金经理投资行为具有冲击效应,并直接影响到基金经理的策略选择和资产组合调整。结合研究结论,本文提出推进中国版"401K"计划,优化基金持有人结构,合理引导基金投资者行为,减小基金异常申赎行为对市场波动性的传递效应等政策建议。     

中美两国投资基金投资风格的比较研究

一、美国投资基金的投资风格和绩效研究 根据晨星公司的划分将共同基金分为九类大市值成长型、大市值价值型、大市值混合型、中市值成长型、中市值价值型、中市值混合型、小市值成长型、小市值价值型、小市值混合型,检验了10年的数据.     

Risk Analysis of Pension Fund Investment Choices

We provide a comprehensive and more consistent approach to analyse and compare the risk-return relationships of Australian superannuation investment options for the period January 1990 to December 2016. In estimating the risk profiles of the investment options, we allow for the movement of the asset classes over time by employing a varying coefficient panel estimation technique. We find that while risk increases across different investment options from moderate to aggressive options, using different percentages of identifying a balanced fund does not impact the long-term risk measurement. We equally find that the risk-return relationships of investment options are not sensitive to the modelling framework, except for the crisis analysis, in which the Fama-French five-factor model provides greater sensitivity.     

证券投资基金课税分析

完善我国投资基金的税收政策可从以下几个方面入手避免“双重课税”,实行税收归集抵免制;对基金的各类所得尽快实行统一税率,加强政策的可操作性,等等。     

股市波动对基金管理费报酬的影响研究——基于中介效应的分析

利用中介效应分析方法检验了理论假设:股市波动对基金管理费报酬有积极的影响,基金业绩在股市波动对基金管理费报酬的影响中存在正的中介效应,即基金有能力在股市波动中发掘机会来提高业绩,从而提高管理费报酬。实证结果表明,在没有增加基金业绩情况下,股市波动对基金管理费报酬具有积极影响,此结论从股市波动的视角证明了基金管理费激励机制并不是激励相容的。根据实证结果,可以从基金类型多样化、扩大管理费率范围和加强投资者教育等三个方面完善基金管理费激励机制。     

私募股权投资基金存在性的经济学分析

本文将私募股权投资基金作为一种专业化的金融中介,从其自身的特点和金融中介理论出发,对其产生的原因、存在的必要性及其特殊性进行经济学分析,指出私募股权投资基金在降低交易成本、分散投资风险、克服信息不对称方面起到了重要作用,提高了私募股权投资市场的效率.但私募股权投资基金在解决信息不对称问题的同时,又产生了新的更为复杂的委托-代理问题.     

证券投资基金时机选择能力的实证研究

大部分基金的业绩优于市场，一定程度上反映了我国证券市场的效率还不够高。实证检验不支持证券投资基金具有时机选择能力的假设，相反，部分基金有明显的负选择能力。     

Performance Evaluation with Transactions Data: The Stock Selection of Investment Newsletters

This paper analyzes the equity-portfolio recommendations made by investment newsletters. Overall, there is no significant evidence of superior stock-picking ability for this sample of 153 newsletters. Moreover, there is no evidence of abnormal short-run performance persistence (hot hands). The comprehensive and bias-free transactions database also allows for insights into the precision of performance evaluation. Using a measure of precision defined in the paper, a transactions-based approach yields a median improvement of 10 percent over a corresponding factor model. This compares favorably with the precision gained by adding factors to the CAPM.     

The Investment Performance of U.S. Equity Pension Fund Managers: An Empirical Investigation

This paper presents an empirical examination of the selectivity and market timing performance of a sample of U.S. equity pension fund managers. Regardless of the choice of benchmark portfolio or estimation model, the average selectivity measure is positive and the average timing measure is negative. However both selectivity and timing appear to be somewhat sensitive to the choice of a benchmark when managers are classified by investment style. Meta-analysis revealed some real variation around the mean values for each measure. The 80 percent probability intervals for selectivity revealed that the best managers produced substantial risk-adjusted excess returns. We also found a negative correlation between selectivity and timing, but we argue that the observed negative correlation in our data is largely an artifact of negatively correlated sampling errors for the two estimates.     

《金融工具确认和计量》准则对基金投资的影响

现行会计准则体系中《金融工具确认和计量》准则首次对金融工具的确认和计量做出了相关规定。本文分析了该准则对基金投资可能产生的影响，认为一方面公允价值计量模式将引起基金估值的变化，另一方面公允价值变动可能引起基金分红规模的扩大，这对基金投资者的影响是显而易见的。本文结合这两方面的影响对基金投资提出了相关建议。     

我国投资基金的法律分析与立法思考

分析了契约型投资基金和公司型投资基金的基础法律关系，比较了二者之间的不同特征和构造关系，并对我国投资基金组织形式的选择和投资基金产法应贯彻的原则进行了充分论述。     

证券投资基金治理结构分析

证券投资基金的治理结构直接关系到能否保护基金持有人的利益和证券投资基金业的发展前景,本文从理论的角度对契约型和公司型基金的治理结构进行了研究,并且认为条件具备的情况下,应着手发展公司型基金公司.