全球失衡问题的资产组合方法——对美国的分析及对中国的启示

基于国际收支货币分析理论的资产组合方法是研究全球失衡问题的一个新视角.这一方法关注一国净外部资产头寸的累积及其可持续性,理解和评估外部失衡的关键是净外部资产变动过程中的价值效应.用该方法对美国外部失衡所做的研究能够得到较为乐观的结论.我国持续贸易顺差并没有带来相应程度的财富累积,我国外部头寸的价值效应为负.我国对贸易顺差进行调整时必须考虑外部头寸价值变动所产生的平衡效应.同时,我国应适当调整外部头寸结构以降低外部财富损失的风险并积极参与东亚金融合作以抵御风险.     

ACCOUNTING FOR THE WORLD ECONOMY

The analysis of international trade, finance and adjustment is hampered by major statistical inadequacies. In theory current account balances of all economies that make up the world economy should add to zero. However, available balance-of-payments data and other major statistical sources show a huge discrepancy. A major source of the discrepancy is found in the inadequate recording of international financial assets and liabilities and related factor income payments. In this paper the author proposes a global economic accounting framework, labelled as the World Accounting Matrix (WAM), which integrates world investment-savings balances, trade flows, factor payments and international flow of funds into one consistent data system on a source-use basis. Data discrepancies can thus be traced and adjusted more systematically. The WAM will provide a new tool for studies on international trade, debt and adjustment and present the accounting framework and the consistent data basis for models of the world economy.     

International Shocks on Australia – The Japanese Effect

Although Australia has an equivalently large trading relationship with Japan and the US, current macro models often incorporate only US variables in the external sector of Australia. This paper explores the consequences of including both US and Japanese effects in the international sector of a SVAR model of Australia. The results indicate the significance of the Japanese effects. Excluding Japan results in an overstatement of the impact of US based shocks on the Australian economy. When Japan is included, US based shocks remain dominant in explaining Australian outcomes, but the responses are moderated compared with a model incorporating only a US based external sector. This has important implications for domestic policy responses to international shocks. Without the influence of Japan, domestic monetary policy will over-react to a US based shock.     

Estimating the effect of the EMU on current account balances: A synthetic control approach

The European sovereign debt crisis wrought major political and economic damage on the European Monetary Union (EMU). This led to a reassessment of the pre-crisis period of economic growth and stability in the EMU, shifting attention to the macroeconomic imbalances that emerged between member states, especially those in current account balances. This paper uses macroeconomic data on OECD economies and a new statistical approach for causal inference in observational studies—the synthetic control method—to estimate the effect of the EMU on the current account balances of individual member states. This ‘counterfactuals’ approach provides strong evidence that the introduction of the EMU was responsible for the divergence in current account balances among member states in the run-up to the euro crisis. The results suggest that the EMU effect operated through multiple channels and that fundamental changes to the institutional framework of the EMU may be required to safeguard the currency union against a reemergence of dangerous external imbalances in the future.     

后危机时代世界经济再平衡及其挑战

基于对世界经济失衡问题的基本判断,本文分析了世界经济相对均衡发展的图景、全球经济的需求结构、虚拟经济与实体经济适度发展以及国际货币体系重构等世界经济再平衡过程中必须面对的突出问题。本文指出,世界各国尤其是中美等主要经济体的国内均衡将是实现世界经济再平衡的前提和基础。本文最后探讨了美国、日欧、石油出口国与中国等国家的经济发展模式转变及其面临的挑战。     

20世纪80年代以来全球经济外部不平衡的调整:历史的视角

20世纪80年代以来全球经济外部不平衡发生了三次大的调整,每次调整的背景和方式不同。20世纪80年代美日之间的外部不平衡是通过高增长背景下刻意的货币制度设计来完成的,是一种"渐进"的调整方式。20世纪90年代东南亚国家外部不平衡的调整是在高增长背景下,由货币"错配"引发的组合投资逆转带来的以货币危机形式完成的,是一种"休克"的调整方式。而2006年以来至今的美国经济外部不平衡的调整是在金融危机加速全球经济急速下滑的背景下,更可能依靠实体经济总需求的下降来调整,将是一个相对缓慢的过程。     

The changing international transmission of U.S. monetary policy shocks: Is there evidence of contagion effect on OECD countries

We study the changing international transmission of U.S. monetary policy shocks to 14 OECD countries over the period 1981Q1–2010Q4. The U.S. monetary policy shock is defined as unexpected change in Effective Federal Funds Rate (FFR). We use a time varying parameter factor augmented VAR approach (TVP-FAVAR) to study the EFFR shocks together with a large data set of 265, major financial, macroeconomic and trade variables for U.S., Canada, France, Germany, Italy, UK, Japan, Australia, Spain, Norway, Sweden, Switzerland, Finland and New Zealand. Our main findings are as follows. First, negative U.S. monetary policy shocks have considerable negative impact on GDP growth in the U.S., Canada, Japan and Sweden while most of the other member countries benefits. Second, the transmission to GDP growth has increased in OECD countries since the early 1980s. We also detect a more depressed GDP over medium term in the U.S., Canada, Japan, Australia, Norway and Sweden over the recent global financial crisis. Third, the size of U.S. monetary policy shocks during financial turmoil periods were unusual than normal periods and varies overtime. The financial crisis (2008–2009) is evidenced by decline in residential investment in the U.S. and propagation of this shock to Canada, Germany, Japan, Switzerland and New Zealand over the recent period. U.S. monetary policy shocks reduce share prices in most of the OECD countries; this impact is more pronounced over the turmoil period. Asset prices, interest rates and trade channel seem to play major role in propagation of monetary policy shocks.     

STRUCTURAL CHANGE AND PROSPECTS FOR SUSTAINED IMPROVEMENT IN U.S. EXTERNAL BALANCE

Projections from many macroeconometric models have suggested that the improving trend in U.S. external balance since 1987 would peter out by the end of 1990. Because the 1980s decade was a turbulent period in the international environment, one might question the reliability of these projections since the economic relationships underlying the models could have changed. This review finds insufficient evidence of structural change or of sufficiently important omitted variables to justify seriously questioning the projections. However, this study also considers model and parameter uncertainty and concludes that continued improvement in U.S. external balance is within the realm of statistical probability—but, then, so is substantial worsening.     

STRUCTURAL CHANGE AND PROSPECTS FOR SUSTAINED IMPROVEMENT IN U.S. EXTERNAL BALANCE

Projections from many macroeconometric models have suggested that the improving trend in U.S. external balance since 1987 would peter out by the end of 1990. Because the 1980s decade was a turbulent period in the international environment, one might question the reliability of these projections since the economic relationships underlying the models could have changed. This review finds insufficient evidence of structural change or of sufficiently important omitted variables to justify seriously questioning the projections. However, this study also considers model and parameter uncertainty and concludes that continued improvement in U.S. external balance is within the realm of statistical probability—but, then, so is substantial worsening.     

Currency depreciations and the U.S.–Italian trade balance: Industry-level estimates

As one of the indebted Southern European countries that have put pressure on the Euro in recent months, Italy would benefit from a reduction in its external trade deficit. One channel could be through a weakening of its currency—which would only work if the Euro depreciated against the currency of an outside importer, such as the U.S. dollar. This study examines the response of the trade balances of 106 individual industries to such depreciations, using annual data and applying cointegration analysis. We find that only 19 industries register a long-run improvement, with these concentrated in miscellaneous manufactures (SITC sector 8). Two major products in the automotive industry—petroleum and road motor vehicles, show evidence of a “J-curve” effect.     

THE LOOMING U.S. EXTERNAL DEBT: HOW SERIOUS IS IT?

This article examines the state of U.S. external debt accumulation, especially the rising burden of interest payments. It points out that the favorable yield differential between U.S. external assets and liabilities may be declining at the same time the United States has become the world's largest international debtor. The favorable yield differential has enabled the United States, which became a net debtor in 1987, to avoid making net interest payments on its international debt until 1994. However, servicing the increasing U.S. net international debt is likely to be a much greater burden in the future as the favorable yield gap wanes while net debt continues to grow.     

全球经济失衡的调整趋势 ——基于美国中心的视角

本文对以美国为中心的全球经济失衡模式进行了趋势性分析。尽管外部失衡呈现出周期性的调整，但这些调整过程也是围绕着美国的经济和利益中心而展开的。对于美国而言，它并不需要刻意对其逆差大小进行调整，而主要通过金融渠道的资本流动收益为其贸易逆差提供融资；其外部失衡的调整是贸易失衡对象的转换，而不是贸易余额的逆转。对于顺差方，外部失衡的调整意味着贸易条件的恶化和经济结构的调整，出口贸易地位将逐步被弱化和替代。以美国为中心的全球经济失衡模式将继续存在，除非美元崩溃和美国经济霸主地位丧失。     

INDUSTRY TRADE BALANCE AND DOMESTIC MERGER POLICY: EMPIRICAL EVIDENCE FROM U.S. MERGER POLICY FOR MANUFACTURING SECTORS

The literature on antitrust in an open-economy setting is inconclusive with respect to the role played by trade balance on the tenor of domestic merger policy. Using a panel dataset composed of U.S. merger reviews by industrial sector over the 1982–2001 period, I empirically test the impact of sectoral trade balance on the level of antitrust scrutiny. The results suggest that larger trade balances lead to more vigorous antitrust scrutiny; thus "strategic" merger policy does not appear evident, and consumer surplus appears to guide U.S. merger policy even under the lure of international competitive gains.     

Global predictive power of the upside and downside variances of the U.S. equity market

Given the pace of increasing globalization and the pioneering role of the U.S. economy, we anlayze the global impact of the U.S. equity market’s uncertainty. The asymmetric impact of upside (downside) uncertainty, related with the upward (downward) movements of the underlying assets, has raised substantial concerns recently. We comprehensively analyze the global predictability of the upside and downside variances of the U.S. equity market, implied by S&P-500 calls and puts, respectively. We contribute to the literature on the asymmetric impacts of the upside and downside variances of the U.S. equity market in an international setting. Our study also complements the study on predicting international stock returns. Moreover, substantial economic value can be generated from the perspective of asset allocation. The main channel for the positive (negative) predictability of upside (downside) variance stems from its positive (negative) impacts on international investment, highlighting the leading role of the U.S. economy.     

INTERNATIONAL COMPETITION AND U.S. R&D SUBSIDIES: A QUANTITATIVE WELFARE ANALYSIS*

In the early 1970s U.S. firms were the uncontested world leaders in R&D investment in most manufacturing sectors. Later, led by Japan and Europe, foreign firms began to challenge American R&D leadership in many sectors of the economy. This period of increasing technological competition is contemporaneous with a substantial increase in U.S. R&D subsidies. What is the effect of the observed increase in international competition on U.S. welfare? How does foreign competition affect the optimal R&D subsidy in the United States, and, consequently, how far is this from the subsidy observed in the data? This article addresses these questions in a two‐country quality ladder growth model.     

从贸易摩擦到汇率系统的国家利益冲突

本文由国际贸易理论中存在的多童均衡引发的国家利益冲突从而引起世界各国在国际贸易中面临国家竞争战略的机制这一论点出发,以美日两国国家竞争战略的机制选择为例,阐明汇率系统的冲突已经成为当前世界各国国家利益冲突的主要形式.这一研究结论为中国国家竞争战略的选择和制定提供了一种思路.     

奥地利与非欧盟国家科技合作新布局

奥地利国际科教合作传统上一直以欧盟及西巳尔干国家为主,但近年来国际经济科技形势的变化迫使奥地利对其国际科技合作战略进行重新思考和定位,将与非欧盟国家的合作提升到前所未有的高度。奥地利实现其国际科技合作的五大目标是:卓越目标、市场目标、资源优化目标、应对全球挑战目标和科技外交目标。为此,奥地利对合作国别进行了深入分析:确立了美国、中国、俄罗斯、印度4个非欧盟国家为其国际科教合作非常重要的国家,其中,中国为最需要加强合作的国家;确定了韩国、巴西、南非、以色列、加拿大、日本、土耳其、新加坡等非欧盟国家为其国际科技合作的重要国家,其中,韩国为需要加强合作的国家。     

贸易统计差异与中美贸易平衡问题

本文研究发现(1)中美进出口计价方式不同和运输时滞导致双边贸易统计数据存在差异是自然的。(2)参照剔除香港转口毛利后中美贸易新估计值,1995—2003年美国对华出口低估年均在24%以上,从华进口高估年均在35%以上,而中国对美出口低估年均在20%以上,从美进口相对没变。(3)考虑服务贸易后,美中商品与服务贸易逆差估计值与中国对美贸易顺差新估计值已相当接近。上述结果得到IMF数据的证实。(4)外商在华直接投资增加会造成中国对美出口增加、对美贸易顺差增加。依据中美两国月度数据计量的结论是相一致的。这一结果证实中美贸易平衡问题已超越中美两国贸易范围而成为外商在华直接投资所引致的贸易逆差转移问题。剔除外资企业进出口贡献及贸易统计差异后,中国对美贸易估计值已非常趋近于美国对华贸易估计值。     

Export Controls and International Business: A Study with Special Emphasis on Dual-Use Export Controls and Their Impact on Firms in the US

The production of hazardous materials that can be used for civilian and military purposes (dual-use items) has led the U.S. government to impose export controls in order to prevent the proliferation of risky materials falling into the wrong hands — a concern in this age of international terrorism. Export controls are prudent government responses to the emergence of a new and widely perceived threat to national security. However, existing controls have failed to keep up with rapid global economic and technological changes, and are likely to have adverse effects on firms’ economic performance. This article suggests regulatory and policy reforms, as well as corporate strategies for dealing with U.S. export controls in order to make such controls effective and relevant to changing technological developments. Among the problems the article identifies are the negative effects of these export controls on firm innovation, market competitiveness, investment, and trade flows. These issues point to a pressing agenda for regulatory reform. Reforms can focus on limiting control lists, enhancing the bilateral or multilateral cooperation in export controls, improving the efficiency and transparency of the licensing system, improving resources and the outreach to small and medium-size exporters, and compensation for the loss of market share.     

The Intertemporal Equilibrium Modeling of Intra-EMU and Global Trade Imbalances

The intertemporal equilibrium approach to current accounts analyzed the impacts of respective intra-European Monetary Union (intra-EMU) and Asian-U.S. financial integration between 1999 and 2007 on the intra-EMU current account and global trade imbalances. Moreover, Farmer and Ban (2014) find in a three-country, two-region overlapping generations model that financial integration between both the EMU core and periphery and between Asia and the U.S. induce trade surpluses in the EMU core and Asia, while in the EMU periphery and in the U.S., trade balances become negative when the global economy is dynamically inefficient. In this paper, we first show that in a numerically specified Farmer-Ban model, steady-state trade balance to gross domestic product ratios are too low compared to the empirically observed counterparts. We suggest avenues to ameliorate this problem.